I'm finally doing the previews for this weekends big UFC 268 event. I'm really hoping to have them all done to put them out all at the same time on Friday morning, but this one is the first one. If you don't see a post for Rose vs Weili or Usman vs Covington, then just know that it's coming shortly. With that said, let's get into the main card opener.
The main card on Saturday night will open with a bang as we get Justin Gaethje vs Michael Chandler right off the bat. I probably don't need to tell you that this is a fight that was almost too easy to make. Both fighters wanted this fight and know that a win will put them on a short list for the next title shot. Both are also polarizing with Gaethje being a fan favorite due to his extremely explosive style and Chandler having played more of the villain since his arrival to the UFC and finding himself in a title fight in just his second appearance with the promotion. Fans are rightfully excited to see two of the most aggressive and violent fighters in any division step into the cage with each other and now we don't even have to wait for it. Part of me was sad this fight wasn't going to be 5 rounds, but I don't think we're even going to need all 3. Let's start the preview by going over Justin Gaethje.
We haven't seen Justin Gaethje inside the octagon in quite awhile. His last appearance was his loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov in October 2020 in a title unification bout. Before that, Gaethje was on a pretty nice run having won four in a row over James Vick, Edson Barboza, Donald Cerrone, and Tony Ferguson. He was the interim champion after defeating Ferguson at UFC 249, which was the first card since the COVID-19 pandemic closures. Gaethje is such a unique fighter as he has a fairly high level wrestling background, but almost never uses. That is due in large part to how powerful and explosive he is on the feet. Gaethje has arguably the most power out of anyone in the entire weight class in both his hands and his legs. The weapon that really separates Gaethje from some of his peers is his leg kicks. He throws them early and often with as much power as anyone in MMA. Gaethje has the wrestling pedigree if he needs it, but as always with him, if he wins, it will likely take place largely in the stand up.
That brings us to Michael Chandler. Chandler is 1-1 in the UFC having defeated Dan Hooker in his debut and losing to Charles Oliveira in a fight for the vacant UFC lightweight championship. Prior to this, Chandler had been in Bellator since 2010 and was a multi-time champion there. While Gaethje is more of a unique athlete with an extremely explosive style, Chandler's style is something we've seen before. Chandler is the wrestler who has big power in his hands that he uses to set up his takedowns. However, just because it's a style we've seen in past fighters doesn't mean it is easy to stop or prevent. You can't keep your hands down to prevent the takedown because he has the power to knockout you out, but if you keep your guard too high, you'll get yourself taken down.
Now that the fight is set up, we can get into the matchup a little bit. Despite Gaethje being the taller man, Chandler will have a 1.5 inch reach advantage, but that really isn't a fight altering difference. Because Gaethje is taller however, he will likely have the leg reach advantage, which is pretty important for him. The most important thing in this fight will be for Chandler to close the distance and crowd Justin Gaethje. If he is forced to fight him at range, Gaethje will use his kicks to damage Chandler's legs over and over again. I think we will see Chandler use a similar approach to what he did against Dan Hooker and try to really get in Gaethje's face. Hooker also has really good kicks and Chandler was able neutralize them with constant pressure. The difference is while Hooker is a high level striker, he doesn’t have the power Gaethje has. Chandler was able to pressure Hooker because Hooker wasn’t likely to knock him out with one shot. Hooker was more likely to get the knockout if that had continued for 3 rounds after continued punishment. When it comes to Gaethje, that just may not be the case. Gaethje could easily drop Chandler with any isolated shot if Chandler isn’t careful with how he closes the distance. With that said, I think the best course of action is for Chandler to get this fight to the ground. Obviously, Khabib is just a different beast, but we did see him lose on the ground in that fight, so he is at least somewhat vulnerable in that area. We did however see Gaethje dismantle Tony Ferguson on the feet for four and a half rounds and I don’t think anyone would say Chandler is anywhere close to the striker that Ferguson is. All of this isn’t to say that Chandler can’t land a huge right hand and get a knockout like he did against Hooker, but at the same time, I think the longer he stands with Gaethje, the worse his chances are.
I think that sets it up pretty well. If Gaethje can keep this standing, I think he is the more dynamic and advanced striker and like his chances. Chandler needs to put the pressure on Gaethje, avoid the leg kicks, and use his massive power to set up his takedowns. Who do you guys think gets the win in this one? Will the winner be automatic for the next title shot? Who do you want to see come out of this one victorious? Leave a comment below with your thoughts. By the way, I’ll again have my picks come out on Saturday morning or maybe really late Friday night, so be on the look out for those.
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