We're only a few days away from a Fight Night event in front of a legitimate crowd outside of the apex, which feels weird to say, but its exciting. This card figures to be really interesting from start to finish as basically every fight on the card has some point of intrigue. What I think we have missed from these Fight Night events, besides the fan energy of course, is the themed events. The crowds are usually great because the location of the card usually dictates a lot of the fights. The UFC will try to put as many hometown fighters on the card as possible and that is what we see here. The UK fans will be behind all of their fighters and to see them get their moment in front of their home fans is something I am looking forward to quite a bit. The co-main event sets up to be maybe the best fight of the entire event and that is between Arnold Allen and Dan Hooker. This sets up to be Hooker's return to featherweight after a run at lightweight, which has drawn the concern of some. He'll represent the biggest step up in competition for Arnold Allen, who is just on the outside of the real title picture. A win in this one puts him in a position to be maybe 1, at most 2, more wins away from the title shot. Let's get into the breakdown a little bit.
I think because Hooker is coming from a different division, then he'll be in the blue corner for this one. Dan Hooker is a veteran at this point, which seems crazy to say. He's not that old of a guy at only 32, but he's been in the UFC since 2014. Like I said, this will be his return to featherweight after spending a time at lightweight. It was mixed results at lightweight that is fueling his decision to move back down. He is 22-11 overall, but he's 3-3 over his last 6. Those wins came in a tough split decision win over Paul Felder, another decision over Al Iaquinta, and a 3rd solid decision over Nasrat Haqparast. The losses came against some really tough competition in Dustin Poirier (decision), Michael Chandler (TKO), and Islam Makhachev (submission). The thing that we all love about Dan is that he isn't afraid of anybody and he takes really tough fights. Unfortunately for him, this is a major contributor as to why he hasn't found consistent footing in terms of a winning streak. Another reason that Hooker is a fan favorite is due to his style. He relies primarily on his striking, but he's become more well rounded as he's aged. He's always had pretty good takedown defense and is able to keep the fight standing, where his more natural skills can take over. Hooker uses a really unique style of striking that is part volume striking, but also part distance management. Regardless of weight class, he is almost always the taller and longer fighter, which he takes advantage of very well. He's a very diverse striker as well with his kicks and punches being on equal footing. Because he typically has that reach advantage, his kicks have become a weapon that he's learned to utilize very well. He will land front kicks to the body and leg kicks from a distance where his opponent can't get to him. In recent years, his leg kicks have become a real weapon for him, especially in the Paul Felder fight. Dan's boxing is also very good, but there isn't anything necessarily amazing about it. When it comes to being in the top 10 of a division, he doesn't have any really noticeable attributes that stand out when it comes to his hands specifically. He's not next level fast and doesn't have fight changing power, but he's just very solid. Pair that good, fundamental boxing with his reach and he's a real problem for most fighters. As weird as it may be to say, Dan Hooker is able to utilize knees about as well as any fighter in the sport. That isn't typically something that comes up, but Hooker has really been able to use his knees as a weapon consistently for an extended period of time. They're a big part of his takedown defense as wrestlers have to be very careful when they shoot in on him. Dan's grappling is the weaker portion of his game, but that isn't to say it is a true "weakness", but that is typically the easiest way to beat him. He's improved a lot over time and we even saw him wrestle offensively against Haqparast, so that shows really solid evolution on his part. Hooker has always had good cardio and a good chin, which allows him to fight and win the wars that he often finds himself in. He fights at a pretty high pace, but not a pace that is unmatchable. I don't want to make a bigger deal of it than it is, but something to watch coming into this one is his weight. Now, Dan has never missed weight and I don't expect that to start now, but I'm just interested to see how his body responds to cutting the extra 10 lbs again. He's done it before and his cardio and chin were fine, but he's older now, so it is just something to keep an eye on. I think the only thing I would consider a true weakness in Dan's game is his striking defense. It isn't necessarily that he's a bad defensive fighter per se, but when you're throwing as many strikes as he is, that creates openings for the opponent to land. Dan absorbs a lot of damage and while that is a recipe for a fun and exciting fight to watch, it isn't always the best way to collect wins and definitely isn't the best way to go for his own health. Hooker hasn't been able to get that one win that has really sent him to the next level, but he's a damn tough opponent for anyone at both 145 and 155.
Arnold Allen may very well be the most underrated fighter in the entire UFC. That may be a strange thing to say for someone ranked inside the top 10, but I really believe it. I think this fight may be lacking hype because a lot of people just don't know who he is, which is a shame. This is partially due to Allen's personality, which isn't one to seek out attention. He's just a low key guy who, when he's not on the schedule, just goes about his life as if he was just another guy. He's also not a very recognizable person and doesn't really have like a signature move or look or anything like that. Fighters like Sean O'Malley have a look. Cowboy Cerrone has his attitude and approach to fighting. Michel Pereira has his style. Allen just doesn't have that sort of thing and I don't think that is a bad thing, but he just doesn't have anything for a more casual fan to latch on to. The hardcore fans who follow him on social media and have seen his interviews know he is actually a very funny and interesting individual, but he just doesn't do anything to create controversy that a casual viewer would catch wind of. His lack of hype is also partially due to his low activity levels. Allen has had a combination of bad luck and injuries that just haven't really allowed him to progress his career as quickly as he could have. He made his UFC debut in 2015 and he's only fought 8 times in the promotion before this Saturday. He's only fought more than once in a calendar year since debuting in the UFC when he fought twice in 2019. If he wants to make a real push, he's going to have to be more active that this. Even with all of that, his resume is really solid. He's 17-1 overall and 8-0 in the UFC. Despite his lack of activity and limited time inside the rankings, he does have some quality wins. His best victories have come against Makwan Amirkhani, Mads Burnell, Gilbert Melendez, and Sodiq Yusuff. Stylistically, Arnold Allen falls into the jack of all trades category for me, but I view his grappling to be stronger than his striking right now. Allen has a good wrestling base and he will use it as much as his opponent lets him. He has a good top control game, but he will also control fighters in the clinch against the fence effectively even if he can't get them all the way to the ground. I wouldn't say Allen is a submission threat necessarily, but he does have 2 finishes by guillotine, so he does have some skills there if the situation presents itself. Allen isn't a purely "lay and pray" type of grappler, but he could afford to be more active with his strikes when he is in position to do so. In his 8 UFC fights, he's only landed more than 37 strikes in a fight twice, so his activity levels could use some work. When it comes to his stand up, Allen has shown growth and isn't someone who can just be taken advantage of on the feet by any means. As you may have guessed, he strikes with a very slow paced, methodical type of style. He doesn't throw any wild and crazy strikes and isn't coming out with a high volume approach, but he's very patient. He does an excellent job of limiting the strikes his opponent can land and then landing his own shots when he can. He's not particularly dynamic in the striking either, despite showing good strength in grappling exchanges. Arnold Allen is sort of a hard fighter to fully explain in just words. He doesn't do anything that you haven't seen before, but it is the combination of all of those things together that makes him so tough to beat. He does a really good job of controlling the fight and making sure that he is in the best position to win at almost all times. His high fight IQ paired with good cardio and an all around skill set leaves him without a true weakness. The concern for Allen would be the lack of a true strength to lean on, but that starts to get into the matchup breakdown portion.
This is the portion of the preview where we discuss some key points to look for come fight night. As I was just getting into, Arnold Allen doesn't have an obvious area of weakness, but he also doesn't really have a true strength that he can rely on whenever he needs it. This all around, jack of all trades skill set makes it easy to get through the lower level competition because he was just better than his opponents in every area that the fight could go. However, as he rises to the top of the division, he will start coming across fighters who are extremely high level in a particular area. Dan Hooker is an extremely high level kick boxer who knows how to use his height and length to his advantage. Even if you remove the reach advantage, Hooker is the superior striker technically and he throws his strikes at a significantly higher volume. It isn't usually Hooker's style, but the cleaner this fight looks, the better of he will be for it. If he can turn this into a stand up fight that takes place at range, he will almost certainly get his hand raised. If he can keep Allen at a distance, he will have pretty much every advantage, except maybe power, which would be closer to even. Unless Allen has made significant strides in the striking since we last saw him, he is going to need to close the distance and make this fight much dirtier and grittier. Any time spent at range will play right into Hooker's game plan, so Allen is going to have to get into the clinch and start working for takedowns early and often. This not only means that he needs his wrestling to be on point, but he needed to have made sure his cardio was in a good place as well. He will have to wrestle for a vast majority of this fight if he wants to get the win, so he can't afford to tire out from working for takedowns. Hooker won't hit the ground easily as he does have pretty good takedown defense, but he's going to have to keep working for them. I think multiple major keys to this fight surround Dan Hooker's legs. First, his kicks are such a massive part of his game that he has to use them early and often. He can use front kicks to the body liked he attempted to do in the early moments of the Michael Chandler fight before that went sideways for him. He'll be able to manage range with that and keep Allen off of him without having to worry about the same power and explosiveness that Chandler has. Additionally, his leg kicks will be able to limit the movement and explosiveness of Allen if he can land some early. Allen isn't necessarily known for his movement, but if Hooker can land some damaging kicks early, that will effect Allen's ability to push off and explode into his takedown attempts. If he is limited even a little bit, that is likely all that Hooker needs as he is difficult enough to get down in the first place. The problem is that if Allen can time any of these kicks or catch one, that provides a great opening for him to get a takedown with exerting a ton of effort. Hooker will have to be careful to mix his kicks into combinations and not just throw them blind. If he gets lazy, Allen could end up on top of him and that is the exact spot that Hooker can't find himself in. The reason I worded it as Hooker's legs and not just his kicks is because his knees will likely come into play at some point. Arnold Allen has to make sure that he times his shots well and doesn't try to shoot in from too far out, otherwise he could find himself ducking right into a step in knee. We've seen Hooker change fights with this technique before, so if Allen gets lazy or becomes labored later in the fight, watch out for a knee from Hooker whenever Allen comes in for a takedown. The final key I want to discuss is Dan Hooker's clinch game. I've mentioned a few times now that Hooker has good takedown defense, which is obviously going to be important. He needs to keep the fight standing and prevent Allen from getting on top of him and grinding out large stretches of the fight. While that is incredibly important, he will also have to be able to get off the fence. Once he stuffs the initial takedown attempt, they'll end up clinched against the fence with Allen on the outside. If Hooker is unable to break that position, it will be equivalent to him having been taken down in the first place. If he ends up being pressed up against the cage for long stretches, that is exactly what Allen wants. I'm sure Hooker has been working on those techniques, but beating Arnold Allen to the positions to force the break is a lot more difficult than just knowing what to do. I just finished talking about it, but Hooker's knees are a great weapon for him, so look for him to maybe land some knees to the body in the clinch if he can.
I think that is it from me on this one. I'm really looking forward to this fight, maybe even more than the main event. I'm interested to see if Arnold Allen can really take that next step. I am equally as interested to see how Dan Hooker looks at featherweight in his first appearance there in a little while. If his cardio or chin are effected at all by the cut, that would change the outlook on this fight significantly. I don't think Allen really has the power to check his chin with an isolated shot and he just doesn't strike with enough volume to overwhelm him, so I don't anticipate that being too much of an issue, but the cardio will be key. If the grappling exchanges deplete someone's gas tank significantly faster than the other, that could be the difference in the fight. Anyways, what do you guys think? Will Arnold Allen continue his undefeated run in the UFC? Or will Dan Hooker bounce back and insert himself right into the featherweight title picture? Let me know your thoughts on the fight and what you think some of the keys are. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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