Alright guys, I didn't forget. Thanks to the worst homework assignment of my life, this is coming out even later than I thought, but it is coming out nonetheless. The full card picks are coming as well sometime after this. I feel like I say this all the time, but another one of my personal favorites is on the card and in the main event this weekend. That man is none other than the number one pound for pound fighter in the UFC, Kamaru Usman. I can't help myself honestly. I find his personality to be extremely likable and it seems like all of his fights over the last few years, all of his fights have a little extra juice on them, which makes everything feel a little bit bigger. That's not to say I dislike Colby per se, I just find him a little annoying. Political nonsense aside, I just find his character to be too much of a rip off of Conor McGregor. I think most trash talkers in some sense are all trying to recapture what Conor did and even what Chael Sonnen and Michael Bisping had going before him. At least for me, Colby's persona that he plays just isn't original enough to be funny, but just comes across as too fake and annoying, but that's all personal preference I suppose. Regardless of what I think about his way of selling and promoting his fights, I definitely recognize that he is the closest we've seen to Usman losing in the UFC and I think is probably the second best welterweight in the world right now. I would have Leon Edwards in a close 3rd place for whatever it's worth, but this isn't about him. I think Usman vs Covington 1 might be my favorite fight I've ever watched, if not my favorite, it's definitely in the top 5. So while I think Edwards may have done more to earn this shot, I can't help but to be excited for this one.
As I usually do, I'll start with the champion. Kamaru Usman has a pretty flawless looking resume. He has one loss that came in his second career fight, but there's only one Khabib and Jon Jones, so I'm not going to hold a single loss early in his transition from freestyle wrestling to MMA against him. Usman has won a total of 18 in a row, but his last handful of been truly outstanding. He's gone from someone who dominates his opponents with his wrestling and controlling positions to a real force as his striking has really become a weapon that has allowed him to finish opponents. Usman's last 6 wins have come against as strong a cast as anyone has gone against in the sport. He defeated former lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos coming up a weight class, then champion Tyron Woodley to claim the title, interim champion Colby Covington, Gilbert Burns, and BMF champion Jorge Masvidal twice. His last fight was the second against Masvidal that ended with an absolute sledge hammer of a right hand by Usman that knocked Masvidal out cold, which is especially impressive given Masvidal's history of not being finished very often. Other than his first fight against Masvidal that came on the first Fight Island card, we haven't seen Usman rely too heavily on his wrestling in a few fights, but I think that's still the strength of his game. Both he and Colby decided not to waste the energy to try and wrestle each other in their fight, he didn't want to mess with Burns' jiu-jitsu on the ground in that fight, and he did get one takedown against Masvidal in the second fight, but finished it in the second round before there was another wrestling exchange. As for his style on the feet, Usman is a slower paced, methodical striker. He doesn't come out and really overwhelm anyone with volume striking, I wouldn't even say that he has this crazy raw power, but it is very effective for him. He is an explosive athlete who uses sound fundamentals and his strength to damage his opponents, primarily with his right hand. We saw him land the straight right to drop Covington twice and put Masvidal out. He used the right hand to jab against Gilbert Burns and that was enough to eventually finish him as well. He has been training with Justin Gaethje, so I do wonder if he has taken up the leg kicks that Gaethje uses so well, but that remains to be seen. Overall, I think Usman is such a tough puzzle to solve because he is so fundamentally sound. He doesn't rely too much on natural skills, but instead combines the skills and abilities he has with technique in a way that doesn't give his opponents much room for error. Mindset isn't really something I get into much in these because it's really hard to quantify or explain in terms that aren't just conjecture, but when it comes to Usman, I feel like I have to mention it. Usman just has this thing about him that is really hard to explain. There is almost this Tom Brady like quality about him that when the lights are the brightest, he's just going to find a way. I'm not sure what he's done, but he has surely come close to mastering the mental side of this sport, which has been a major player in the downfall of so many before him.
That was a lot about Usman and he's earned every bit of it. What I think might be being undersold a bit is so much of what I just said about Usman, can also be said about Colby Covington. As I said about Usman, I believe wrestling is the best aspect of Covington's game. This is partially what led to Covington having to adopt his current persona. Fans were bored with his style because he was so dominant in the wrestling department that he was just controlling opponents for the full 15 minutes with virtually no resistance. Other than the loss to Usman, Covington's recent wins have come against Demian Maia, Rafael Dos Anjos, Robbie Lawler, and Tyron Woodley. The win against Woodley is his only appearance since the loss to Usman and it ended with a weird rib injury for Woodley in the middle of a dominant performance for Colby. Colby doesn't have as much to talk about when it comes to the style of his wins because they're largely the same, dominant, control based victories. Other than the Woodley injury, Colby hasn't won by finish since he beat Max Griffin by TKO in 2016. While they are so similar in so many ways, Covington does have a different approach to his striking. He's not nearly as technically polished and fundamentally sound as Usman, but that unorthodox style can also have it's benefits by being more difficult to predict. Covington is also much more of a volume striker. He throws punches in long combinations to overwhelm his opponents to set up his takedown attempts. He pairs this with his insane cardio and uses to break most other fighters. Simply put, he can throw more punches than you for a longer duration than you and forces you to give up. He doesn't have the power on his shots that Usman has, but he does throw a lot of them.
That's all fine and dandy, but what does any of it mean in terms of what we will actually watch? Well, I think it could really go either way. I think this fight is so hard to predict because we have seen Usman's progression as a fighter and how much he has improved since switching camps. We saw him win a striking battle against Colby a few years ago and then saw his striking improve significantly in the time since then. Colby just hasn't been active enough for us to make any conclusions on how he has grown as a fighter since that night. We saw him against Woodley, but that was largely the same Colby Covington we already knew. I think the easy part here is that if this fight ends inside the distance, it almost has to be in Usman's favor unless Colby has really added some crazy moves to his arsenal that we haven't seen. I don't think Colby has the power to drop Usman with a one off shot and I think Usman's chin is strong enough to hold up to the volume. What isn't clear is if Usman can really keep up in terms of the volume again. He was able to keep up last time and since his shots were more powerful, he was going to get the win even without the stoppage. So if it stays on the feet, it's really not any different than last time. It's the power and technique of Usman against the volume and gas tank of Covington and it will more than likely be razor thin. What I think could be the key is if anyone tries to wrestle and if they do, can they do it successfully. Usman has never been taken down, so that would be a first, but if anyone not name Khamzat Chimaev was going to do it (wink wink), it's going to be Colby Covington. Colby's at 75% takedown defense which is no slouch either. I think a takedown attempt could prove to be the difference in this one. Either it will be successful and someone will steal a round or it will fail and could zap a huge portion of someone's gas tank.
This fight has so little margin for error that one mistake could be the difference between a win and a loss and I for one am here for it. I've been looking forward to this fight for so long and now that the god forsaken homework assignment I mentioned earlier is finally done, there's nothing separating me from it. What do you think about this one? Who comes away with the win and how do they do it? Leave your predictions below and enjoy the fights.
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