Guys, this main event is really flying under the radar isn't it. I feel like I'm saying this on a weekly basis at this point, but this week features another one of my favorite fighters. I'm not really sure why, but I just feel like MMA has a greater volume of really likable athletes than other sports. There's really not that many fighters who I don't like, and even out of those guys, I still respect most of them. I don't feel the need to say their names because 1. I don't know any of them to say that I actually don't like them and 2. even though I'm not a true "journalist", what's not to say that I couldn't be at some point and if that's the case, there should be some level of professionalism and respect for all athletes regardless of personal opinions. With that said, it's hard to not find yourself rooting for Max Holloway. Max is a favorite amongst many fans because he is just one of us. He's just a guy who likes to laugh, play video games, and hang out with his family. The only difference is that he's capable of out boxing another top 6 ranked fighter while not looking at him and having a conversation with the commentators at the same time. While this fight seems like it should be a great one on paper, it does seem a little weird on the timing side of things. We'll get into that during the breakdown though, so let's get into it.
I didn't really talk about Yair Rodriguez in the intro, so I'll start with him. The focus on Yair for this fight is that he hasn't fought in over 2 years at this point. His last appearance was October 18, 2019 in his rematch with Jeremy Stephens, which he won via a unanimous decision. Yair is known for his dynamic style of striking, which has best been put on display in his last second finish of Chan Sung Jung. After the Jeremy Stephens fight, Rodriguez was maybe a fight or two away from his own title shot, but given everything that has happened since, it's hard to say where he stands. Rodriguez only has two career losses, the first came in his fourth career fight in a Mexican promotion and the other came to Frankie Edgar via doctor's stoppage at UFC 211 in 2017. It's almost hard to write this because it's so hard to speculate as to what version of Yair Rodriguez we will see. There has to be some level of rust having not fought in so long, but at the same time, it's not like Rodriguez has just been sitting on the couch and watching his old highlights all that time, so we could see a much improved version of him. We also learned on Wednesday in his interview with Ariel Helwani that he had a particularly bad case of COVID, which won't help matters for him. If there's one thing that is working in Yair's favor in this fight is that he won't have to wrestle or worry about a takedown in this fight. Max will be looking to keep the fight standing, so at the very least, Yair will be able to focus on what he does well, so that should allow him to shake the rust off a little faster, since he'll be in his comfort zone. Something else working in Yair's favor here is that he really has nothing to lose in this fight. Beating Max Holloway is difficult enough for anyone, but coming off of this layoff, I don't think his stock will drop too much if he loses. On the other hand, if he were able to win, he would all but guarantee himself a shot at the belt. I agree with the conventional wisdom that after being away for so long, it probably would have been better for him to take a slightly easier fight than the obvious number one contender and one of the best featherweights in UFC history, but at the same time, the reward if he were able to pull it off is what makes it worth it for Yair.
Max Holloway on the other, has as few questions as anyone on the UFC roster at this point. We know exactly what Max is great at and what he's not. We know Max is the obvious number one contender to Alexander Volkanovski's featherweight championship despite having lost to him twice already (somewhat controversially). Max Holloway is in the conversation for the greatest featherweight in UFC history with Jose Aldo and Volkanovski and is coming off of potentially the greatest performance of his entire career in January against Calvin Kattar. Asking anyone not named Volkanovski to beat Max at this point is a titanic ask, but asking them to do it after having over 2 years away may be damn near impossible. To make things even better for Max, Yair will not be looking to get this fight to the ground, so Max will be able to enter his flow state on the feet without even having to think about a takedown. Max Holloway over the last year has really leaned heavily into his claim that he's the best boxer in the UFC and it's honestly hard to disagree with him. Holloway's style isn't nearly as dynamic in terms of speed, power, and creativity as Yair's or other high level strikers in the UFC, but clearly Max doesn't need any of those things. Max leverages his technical boxing skill with tremendous cardio to put on a volume striking clinic. At his best, Holloway simply overwhelms his opponents by landing over 7 strikes per minute and he will not slow down over the entire 25 minutes. When paired with his great chin (he's never been knocked out), Max can walk through his opponents shots and land 2 or 3 of his own. Not that it will likely come into play Saturday, but Max also carries with him an 84% takedown defense, so he largely able to keep the fight where he wants it to be.
Maybe I could go into some really small details, but I don't think that's necessary for this one. Sure, Yair could catch Holloway like he did the Korean Zombie, but there's nothing we've seen from Max that should suggest he's susceptible to a one shot knockout. While this fight is low risk, high reward for Yair, I do sort of wish that he would have taken someone a little lower down the rankings, just so we can actually see where he stands in his career. He's still only 29, so it's not like he only has one title run left in him, but I don't want to see him take a Calvin Kattar like beating and then need to take another year off. Rodriguez should have some moments in this fight where we see the old Yair, but I think they will be isolated moments and Max will steal the momentum and have it start to snowball the way it did in the Kattar fight. What do you guys think? Does this set up for a 50-45 for Max? A win for either guarantees the title shot, correct? Let me know what you guys think in the comments and thanks for reading.
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