This Saturday's main event will see former UFC and Strikeforce bantamweight champion Miesha Tate face fellow ranked bantamweight contender Ketlen Vieira. This fight figures to be pretty even and the current betting lines suggest as much. Due to the dominance of champion Amanda Nunes, a win, especially for Tate, could potentially provide her with enough momentum to get the next title shot, assuming Nunes is able defeat Julianna Pena in their December bantamweight title fight. This fight has some interesting dynamics going into it. Vieira has 13 career fights with a record of 11-2, with 7 of those fights coming in the UFC for a 5-2 record. Unfortunately for Vieira, both of those losses have come in 2 of her last 3 appearances. For someone who doesn't have a lot of fights under their belt and especially not a lot of losses, we'll see how her confidence is effected when she steps into the cage with someone with the name recognition of Miesha Tate. On the other hand, Miesha has a lot of experience on her side including a lot of high level experience that involves both UFC and Strikeforce title fights and defenses. Before I start going into too much detail in the intro, I'll just get into it.
We'll start with Ketlen Vieira this time and while her overall career record looks good, it's been a little bumpy for her of late. As I said, her only two career losses have come in her last three fights to Irene Aldana and Yana Kunitskaya, who are both good fighters who have been established in the rankings for awhile now. While neither of those are bad losses by any means, I just wonder if her confidence could be shaken when these are the only two times she's ever lost as a professional. Obviously I'm not a fighter so I don't know the mindset of a fighter and how confidence works within that specific context, but I have played sports before and when you don't lose very often, I know what it's like and how that can shake someone. I have to assume all of these things are amplified when the sport is hand to hand combat on TV. Vieira was able to bounce back from her first loss with a solid win over Sijara Eubanks, so she's done it before and will be looking to do the same. In order to do that, Vieira will be looking to get the fight to the mat. She only has two career knockouts and they came outside of the UFC and she's been knocked out once by Aldana. Vieira averages 2.19 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands them at a 48% accuracy rate. She also has a 92% takedown defense, so she can get the fight to the ground on her terms, but keep it standing on her terms as well. On the feet, she hasn't had as much success as she lands 2.66 significant strikes per minute, but absorbs 3.84 per minute. Of her 5 UFC wins, only one of them came via finish, which was a submission win over Sara McMann. It seems as though if Vieira wins, it will likely come after the 25 minutes is up, especially with someone who is as well versed on the ground as Miesha Tate. Vieira only attempts 0.5 submissions per 15 minutes, so even though she has success in getting the fight to the ground, she emphasizes a position over submission style. The win over Eubanks as well as a win over Cat Zingano probably represent the best of her career. Tate will be a step up in competition for Vieira as the previous attempts at a step up resulted in losses for her. A title shot would be on the horizon or maybe one more fight away for Vieira if she were able to come away with the victory over Miesha on Saturday.
Speaking of Miesha Tate, she is also in some uncharted territory for her career. She walked away from the sport in 2016 after suffering consecutive losses to Amanda Nunes and Raquel Pennington. After starting a family, Tate returned to the UFC cage in July with a win over Marion Reneau. While experience and specifically experience losing is something that is working against Vieira, experience is one aspect where Tate has the clear advantage. She's shared the octagon with some of the best to ever do it. While she hasn't always come out on the winning side, Tate has fought the likes of Ronda Rousey, Cat Zingano, Liz Carmouche, Jessica Eye, Holly Holm, and Amanda Nunes. Tate is used to high level and high pressure fights, so if Vieira shows any signs of nerves early, Miesha should be ready to take advantage of it. Similar to Vieira, Miesha will also be looking to get this fight to the ground. Tate averages 2.16 takedowns per 15 minutes and gets them at a 32% rate, which is less efficient than Vieira. She also only defends takedowns at a 52% rate, which while not horrible, isn't nearly as good as Vieira's defense. Where Tate does have a statistical advantage is in trying to finish the fight, she attempts 1.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes, 1.0 attempts per 15 greater than Vieira. Oddly, Tate's only two wins by finish in the UFC are her last two UFC wins, her TKO victory over Reneau in July and her submission victory over Holly Holm to win the title in March of 2016. I think a win here for Miesha Tate could be enough to get her the title shot next.
A fight between the 7th and 8th ranked fighters in a weight class isn't typically thought of as a number one contender bout, but as we know, the higher weight classes in women's MMA are a little odd sometimes. Amanda Nunes has the title at both bantamweight and featherweight and has beaten most of the top 10 in bantamweight, while featherweight is too thin to even have rankings. The problem at 135 lbs is that Amanda has beaten most of the top 5 and anyone in the top 10 that she hasn't faced yet can't get past the other women that she has beaten. Germaine de Randamie is ranked first, but she hasn't fought since October of 2020 and is only 1 fight removed from her second loss to Nunes. Holly Holm is ranked 2nd and has only lost to Nunes once, but I believe she is still recovering from an injury that has caused her to pull out of fights against Julianna Pena and Norma Dumont. To be clear, I don't know if the same injury caused her to pull out of both, but that is two fights in a row. Aldana only has a one fight win streak after defeating Yana Kunitskaya, but the fight before was a loss to Holm. Obviously, coming off a loss rules out Kunitskaya for the next title shot and Aspen Ladd is coming off an uninspiring loss to Norma Dumont after struggling with weight multiple times in her career. As you can see, there really isn't a clear contender and the winner from this Saturday would have as solid an argument as any of them. Especially in the case of Miesha Tate, she has the past championship experience and the rematch that saw her lose her UFC title may be enough to get her that fight, as long as she comes out victorious this weekend. Vieira's argument would be that she would be tied for the longest winning streak in the top 8, while being more active than both de Randamie and Holm, and being a fresh face for Amanda to fight.
What do you guys think? Will Vieira's youth and takedown defense be enough for her to get the win? Will Miesha Tate's experience be too much for the younger Vieira? Does the winner get the next shot at Amanda Nunes? Let me know your thoughts in the comments and have a good Friday.
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