On what was a great night of fights, the main event didn't disappoint even one bit. I think the general public probably still expected Dustin Poirier to run over Charles Oliveira, but the betting market kept the line close the whole way, which I was happy to see. Charles Oliveira deserved his respect regardless of the outcome, but obviously the way it went will help that a great deal. That was a great fight and I'm glad those two men were able to finish off a great card with incredible performances from the both of them. I always have a hard time deciding which order to go in when I discuss the fighters. If I put the shorter one first, it seems like I'm just getting it out of the way. If I put the shorter one last, it seems just thrown in at the end. The problem with these title fights is that the champion is usually the shorter paragraph because their next opponent is largely out of their hands and is already known. Having the champion be discussed first and be shorter seems disrespectful, but it's just the nature of how these goes I guess.
I'm going to start with Charles Oliveira because that just makes more sense to me. I said in my preview that I thought anyone questioning Oliveira's heart after his long win streak, with his last being a comeback win over Michael Chandler, was sort of living in the past. They thought they had Charles Oliveira figured out from his featherweight career and weren't acknowledging his changes and growth that came with a move up in weight. I think this Saturday really put all that to bed. Charles Oliveira has plenty of heart and he made that very clear. Dustin Poirier is a man who has stopped Conor McGregor, Eddie Alvarez, and Justin Gaethje. Oliveira tucked his chin and walked forward into the pocket with Dustin Poirier and forced him into a fight. I think that was a great strategy from Oliveira. We all knew, including Oliveira himself, that while the fight was standing, Poirier had the advantage. If Oliveira would have fought Poirier at range, he would have gotten picked apart and likely finished. For better and for worse, Oliveira put the pressure on Poirier when the fight was standing, which was the only route that gave him a chance. He was able to get Poirier moving backwards and had the fight moving at his pace, both of which contributed to Poirier starting to fatigue as the fight continued. While this worked out for Oliveira, it could have also gone very badly for him. He's not as good as Dustin in the standup and we saw him take some really hard shots and even go down during that first round. Oliveira showed his heart and was able to fight through it. He got back to his feet and continued to push forward even though Dustin was hurting him with combinations. A huge thing that Charles was able to do in the first round, even though he lost that round, is hurt Dustin to the body. This is now two different strategies that Oliveira used to chip away at Dustin's gas tank. Oliveira used front kicks to the body and really vicious knees in the clinch to really hurt Dustin. While Poirier definitely got the better of him in the first, those strikes that Oliveira did land, combined with his pressure did take a toll on Dustin that paid off later. In the second round, we saw Oliveira do to Poirier what Poirier did to him in the first. This round largely took place on the ground with Oliveira in top position and Dustin with his guard closed to prevent Oliveira from advancing position and chasing a submission. While Poirier succeeded in keeping Oliveira in position, he took a lot of damage in the second round. Oliveira was landing really heavy elbows and when that round came to an end, the fight was in a much different spot. I looked to my brother and mentioned that given the new ideology in scoring, that may have been considered a 10-8 and he agreed that it could have been, which given the release of the score cards, 2 judges did see it as a 10-8, which would have potentially thrown a wrench into things if it went to decision. We also noted that despite the heavy, slicing elbows, Poirier actually looked decent. He wasn't cut and he wasn't all that swollen, which came as a surprise. He was breathing very heavily though and that was a little unexpected. Oliveira ducked under a Poirier punch early in the 3rd and was able to get to Dustin's back. He then jumped on Poirier and got one of his hooks in. Oliveira started fishing for the choke and got it onto Dustin's face pretty tight and while not on the neck, it looked very uncomfortable. Dustin tried to fight it and in the process, Oliveira was able to get his arm under the chin and sunk in the choke that had Dustin wobbly before he opted to tap instead of going to sleep. As I typed that out, it really sunk in how great the strategy that Oliveira employed was. Standing at range and kick boxing Dustin was never going to work. Oliveira had to get the fight to the ground, but he also had to find a way to deal with Dustin while on the feet. He put the pressure on and closed the distance. This could have gotten him knocked out and it nearly did multiple times. However, had he not done this, he probably would have gotten knocked out anyways. He was forced to walk through shots from Poirier, but as a result he was able to land his own and especially the knees took their toll. The constant moving backwards, if he could survive the punches, would wear on Poirier and as the fight went on, Dustin would lose some of the juice on his strikes and his takedown defense would suffer due to fatigue. This is what allowed Oliveira to get that second round takedown and he really took advantage by landing some serious ground and pound elbows, while accruing several minutes of top control. This left a tired and beaten up Dustin Poirier to defend the rear naked choke attempt and Oliveira got the finish because of it. It was a great performance from Oliveira and he showed tremendous heart and will power to fight through some really heavy shots in the first round. I'm really glad Oliveira is able to finally get the credit he's earned and he should be in line for another big fight whenever we see him return.
Speaking of his return, there is really one clear option at this time, but depending on the timeline, there might be another. Of course, it seems all but settled that Justin Gaethje will be getting the next title shot and in my opinion, that is the right call. Gaethje pretty clearly punched his ticket after defeating Michael Chandler in early November and I said the same in the immediate aftermath of that fight. There was some contention within the MMA world surrounding the situation as some argued that Islam Makhachev should get the title shot, but I think Justin Gaethje has earned that fight at this point. It seems that the UFC agrees since Makhachev was booked against fellow top 5 lightweight contender Beneil Dariush for a 5 round main event in February. Of course, if the winner of that fight gets a quick win and comes out untouched, they could potentially push for a quick turnaround. Combine that with a situation where say Oliveira doesn't return for 6 months as he did this time and that sets up for a defense potentially in June. You can see how this would then create a weird situation where the Dariush vs Islam winner would have the time to turn around and prepare for a potential title fight. If I'm being honest, if Dariush wins that fight, then no one will even mention it if Oliveira isn't ready until June. However, if Makhachev wins, there will be a lot of people talking about how he should get the shot over Gaethje. I'm not going to get too much into that situation because this is already going to be pretty long, but those are really the only options. Gaethje should be the heavy favorite to get that fight and rightfully so from where I sit.
For as happy as I was to see Charles Oliveira win, it's damn near impossible to not be absolutely gutted to see Dustin Poirier leave the cage with a loss. The look on his face was just heart breaking. It seems as though Dustin really believes that was his last shot at a title and I really don't think that has to be the case for him. In typical Dustin Poirier fashion, he was a class act afterwards as the cameras were able to pick up him saying that he wanted to donate $20,000 to a charity of Oliveira's choosing in his hometown. I just wanted to include that incase someone missed it or didn't hear about it because even though Poirier just had his heart ripped out, he was still thinking of others. That's part of the reason that I think there was so much sadness for Dustin coming out of this. He isn't just someone we root for because he's a fun fighter who we like to watch perform. He's a guy we root for because he is a genuinely good human being first and we want to see him do well because someone who has his platform and uses it to help people should get to succeed. Unfortunately, Poirier did not accomplish his goal of winning the undisputed championship, but that doesn't make him a failure either. Poirier fought a tough fight and had chances to win. It just wasn't his night, but I hope that either he can realize it himself or he has someone close to him that can help him to realize that this doesn't have to be over for him. Before I get into that part, I want to talk about his performance first. Dustin seemed pretty frustrated with himself afterwards because he said he brawled when he shouldn't have, but I don't think that was all his doing. He did say that his plan was to come in and box Oliveira from range because of course that was his plan. Had that been an option, he would have won pretty decisively. However, Oliveira also knew that and didn't allow for that type of fight to happen. He got in Dustin's face and forced him to brawl. At that point, it could have gone either way. Dustin had to throw shots and he did a good job of it. He dropped Oliveira twice, but was just unable to close the show. It's not like Oliveira in your face is the same as having Ryan Hall in your face. Getting the pressure from Oliveira forced Poirier's hand because he couldn't just stand there because while Oliveira was the worse of the 2 strikers, he's more than good enough to get a knockout if you give him the chance. I think Dustin got more damaged than he let on by the body shots as well, which really zapped his gas tank. I think the decision to body lock Oliveira from the bottom was a perfectly reasonable strategy as well. Unfortunately for Dustin, Oliveira was able to get his back without even going to the ground in the third and having Charles Oliveira on your back is just a bad spot for anyone. Despite the loss, I think Dustin did a lot well and against lesser competition, fought plenty well enough to get a victory.
What's next for Dustin Poirier is a little more complicated to answer than it was for Oliveira. This requires me to speculate on where Dustin is at mentally, which obviously is in an interesting spot at this point in time. If you are asking for my own personal opinion, I think Poirier should just get back in the gym whenever he's healthy to do so and start preparing for another really big fight. He's only 32 years old. We've seen Jan Blachowicz and Glover Teixeira capture the title at I think 37 and 42 years old in the last couple years. While, yea, 205 isn't as strong as `155, that's still such a huge window for Poirier to get back into the picture. Realistically, how many wins would Poirier even need? We've seen Jorge Masvidal get back to back title shots with no fights in between. Colby Covington got and Justin Gaethje is set up to get a title shot after only a single win after their first shot. Max Holloway has 2 wins since his last title shot and he's set up to fight someone he's lost to twice in title fights already. While all of those situations have particular circumstances, my point holds that 1 big win is enough to get Poirier right back into the conversation. I think it is way too early for him to give up on his dream to be an undisputed champion. Of course, we are just fans and we can only work with what we have. Let's just say for a second that Poirier has information available to him that it would be way too long of a journey for him to ever get another lightweight title shot. If he moved up to welterweight, he could be one fight away from a fight against Kamaru Usman. Assuming Usman fights Leon Edwards next (and assuming a win for the sake of this conversation), who would be next? Vicente Luque probably needs another win and Dana White has said multiple times that he has no plans on rushing Khamzat Chimaev to the top. If Poirier could move up and fight Vicente Luque for the number one contender spot, why wouldn't he? I think Luque would probably take that fight as well given he's not getting a shot coming off of missing weight as the backup fighter for Usman vs Covington II. Of course, all of this relies on Poirier to be in a space mentally that allows him to grind twice a day for months on end. That's not a place that it really seems like Poirier is in based off of some interviews he's done over the last year. Poirier has said that he really doesn't enjoy fighting as much as he used to and that's a tough spot to be in. If Poirier doesn't want to be out there, he most definitely shouldn't be as his long term health is on the line each and every time he steps into the cage. However, just because Poirier doesn't want to do the grinding required for a championship (in this hypothetical), that doesn't mean there's not fights out there for him. Poirier has built up quite a fan base this past year with his two wins over McGregor and he can probably parlay those into some really fun fights and big paydays if he wants to. The main option here would be the fight with Nate Diaz that never quite came to fruition. I'm not going to get too deep into that section because I don't want to see Dustin go down that path, at least right now and I don't think he's considering it too heavily unless he just wants to fight Nate and then retire.
That's where I'll start with him. I think if he does go down the money fight path, he wouldn't stick around long. He may do the Nate Diaz fight just because they have a history with each other and it would of course do big business. Whenever the money fight conversation comes up, Jorge Masvidal's name is always soon to follow. While I think that would be a great fight and of course I would watch it, I don't think that's the type of fight that really gets Dustin excited. Of course, the pay day could be hard to pass up and doing it at 170 and not having to cut is probably an attractive idea, but there's no history between the two and I don't think Poirier would really get up for a pure money fight with nothing behind it. Of course, there is the looming 4th fight with Conor McGregor and I think that one may have some legs to it. It seems that Conor really wants that fight and we don't know how many more times we'll see him compete. Similarly, we don't really seem to have a firm grasp on how many more times we will see Dustin compete. If that's a way that they'll both get in the cage and make the UFC money one more time before they call it quits, I see no reason that the UFC would say no. All of that aside, I really hope Dustin doesn't view his career in that light. He has so much fight left in him and plenty of time to work his way back. It's just a matter of if he wants to do that work or if he's happy with the money he has and just wants to spend time with his family. I can't blame if he's had enough. He's fought on the biggest stages in the world and he's held the interim belt. The only thing left for him is the undisputed title and we'll see if he wants to make another run or two at that belt. Like I said before, I think he has multiple routes to a title shot. If he wanted to move to welterweight, I don't see why he wouldn't be able to request and receive the Vicente Luque fight if he wants it. In a world where Kamaru Usman defeats Leon Edwards, that may be enough to make Poirier the most attractive fresh face for Usman if the UFC is being truthful about bringing Chimaev along slowly. All of this requires Poirier to defeat Luque of course, but I don't think he's outmatched in that fight by any means. I can say all of the same things in a matchup between Poirier and Gilbert Burns for number one contender status. Burns also fought at 155 for a long time, so maybe that fight would make even more sense for him. It doesn't seem like Poirier has any problems making 155, so its hard to tell how tough the weight cut is on him, but he does seem like a big guy for the division. Maybe a move to 170 will just be overall easier on his body and more attractive for him going forward.
Even with all that said, I don't think he has to go anywhere. Given how competitive lightweight is right now, winning 2 fights in a row may be all it takes to get back into a title fight. Lightweight is so deep right now, everyone in the top 10 and even 15 can be another on a given night. This will translate to long winning streaks being unlikely, especially within the top 5 or 8 or so. To me, a fight with Michael Chandler makes a ton of sense for him. I think Chandler probably wants to return a little more quickly than Poirier does, so maybe their timelines don't quite matchup perfectly, but that's a fight I think Chandler would wait for. With both men coming off a loss, that would be a great way to get back in the win column and onto the short list for a title eliminator fight. Dustin could also wait for the loser of the Islam Makhachev vs Beneil Dariush fight and while that would probably push his return to action closer to July or even August, I don't think a longer lay for Dustin would be a bad thing at all. Of course, there is the issue where if you're going to wait until July or August, then there's a notorious Irishman that could also be returning around that same time that would be awfully hard to pass up. I only brought up fighters coming off a loss because that's normally how the UFC operates in these situations, but if Poirier took on someone coming off a win that that would open up even further options for him. If I'm being honest, I'm not really excited about the possibility of a 4th McGregor fight, but once the promo videos started running, I would be into it. I just don't think I would look forward to it weeks and months out the same way I would if he were to fight Chandler, Luque, Makhachev, or even Nate Diaz. There are potential matchups with Rafael Dos Anjos and Tony Ferguson available for Poirier, but those don't really excitement me a ton either. I really don't know who I want RDA to fight. I bring him up in every post about a lightweight, but I never really find a matchup for him that I like. He got the win over Paul Felder when Felder stepped in on short notice last November, but given the circumstances of how that fight came together, it's hard to really put a ton of stock into it. His last win prior to that came against Kevin Lee in May of 2019. That just feels too long ago between significant wins to step in against someone who just fought for the belt as the betting favorite. I think Tony Ferguson is in a similar spot. I wrote a post about Tony a couple of weeks ago and no one high in the rankings made my list for who I want next for Tony. It's just been too long since Tony had a really great win for me to want to see him against a really top flight fighter right now. If you backed me into a corner and forced me to pick someone for Dustin, I think I would say Chandler. However, if I was the one advising Dustin I would tell him to just take some time to enjoy his life and we can worry about what's next in a few months. Let everyone else get a fight in and then check out the lay of the land at the time.
What do you guys think? Who did you have in the fight beforehand? What surprised you about the fight? Gaethje has to be next for Oliveira right? What do you want Dustin to do next? What other thoughts do you have? Leave any and all thoughts and comments below. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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