I did the co-main event yesterday and now we finally made it to the main event. The feature bout of UFC 269 will see Charles Oliveira in his first defense of his lightweight title pitted against consensus number one contender Dustin Poirier. Coming into this, I was expecting to have to say that everyone is overlooking Charles Oliveira, but that actually isn't the case. I think the betting odds are close enough that Oliveira is getting the respect he deserves from the general public, which I appreciate. Normally my intro is a little longer, but I feel like saying any more will just get me into the details, so I'm just going to get started.
Most people reading this will probably be more familiar with Dustin Poirier, so I'll start with him. The challenger does get introduced first after all, so that's how I'll do this. Dustin Poirier will see his second crack at undisputed UFC gold this Saturday and given the strength of the lightweight division, it may be his last. Poirier got his first opportunity a little over two years ago against Khabib Nurmagomedov, which ended with a submission victory for Khabib via rear naked choke in the third round. That fight was a unification bout as Poirier had won the interim title against Max Holloway, who was attempting to become double champ at 145 lbs and 155 lbs. Since the loss to Khabib, Poirier has had a hip surgery followed by 3 really good wins. He defeated Dan Hooker in a 5 round war in his comeback fight and then followed that with 2 consecutive TKO victories over Conor McGregor. Conor wants me to stress that the second was a doctor's stoppage (to name drop the name of this website), but I'm not sure that matters too much given the way that round went. Prior to losing to Khabib in 2019, Dustin's last loss was all the way back in 2016 via a brutal knockout at the hands of Michael Johnson. Now that I'm looking at it, his last loss prior to that was in 2014 to McGregor. These fights all have at least one thing in common and that's that they all happened in the month of September. I say that as if it matters, which I don't think it does, I just thought that was weird and I noticed it. Not only are they all in September, but all of the dates ended in a 7. Khabib was on the 7th, Johnson on the 17th, and Conor on the 27th. His last loss that wasn't in September came all the way back in February of 2013 (February 16th to be specific) against Cub Swanson. Anyways, Dustin has been pretty good for awhile. Losing to Khabib honestly hardly even counts. Since the Johnson loss, Dustin has won 8 of his last 10 with the Khabib loss and a no contest to Eddie Alvarez being the other 2. What makes that even more impressive is the names Poirier has had to go through in those wins. Those names are Jim Miller, Anthony Pettis, Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez, Max Holloway, Dan Hooker, and 2 against Conor. That's pretty much as tough a stretch as you can draw in this sport and Poirier has walked through it and finds himself ready to fight for a title. If you don't know who Dustin Poirier is or you haven't seen him fight before, then what should you expect? Well, Dustin Poirier is well versed enough in all areas of MMA to be dangerous and at the very least defend himself at a high level. With that said, Poirier is consistently mentioned as one of the handful of best boxers in the UFC. Poirier's best path to victory in this fight will be with his hands and I don't really think that's a secret. Poirier was able to become the first MMA fighter to get a TKO victory over Conor McGregor and the only one who actually put him on his back and basically out (Mayweather got the stoppage with Conor out of it, but still on his feet). His power and skill in the boxing realm is as real as it gets in the entire sport, especially at 155 lbs. Poirier also has solid kicks, but they're not an amazing weapon for him like they are for someone Justin Gaethje, but at the same time, he can definitely turn someone's calf into a balloon. Poirier also has solid grappling skills. He averages 1.50 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands them at a 36% rate. While that's not horribly efficient, it's not like Oliveira can completely ignore it either. Dustin has decent takedown defense at 61%, but more on that later. An underrated part of Dustin's game is his submission attacks. Before he lost to Khabib, Dustin had him caught in a very tight guillotine attempt that for a brief moment, looked like could end Khabib's undefeated run. Obviously, we know Khabib eventually escaped and got his own submission, but that's honestly as close as I think Khabib really came to losing (and yes, I know people say he lost to Tibau). While all of those things are great, Dustin isn't undefeated and he's never been undisputed champion before, so he must have some weaknesses right? The answer to that is sort of. I think most people would have told you that Poirier's chin was a weakness for him, but ever since he moved to lightweight, those problems have been minimized, with only the Johnson loss coming via knockout since the move up. This man has taken the best shots of Anthony Pettis, Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje, Max Holloway, and Conor McGregor and found himself on the other side of those as the victor. Besides that, the main knock on Dustin is that he's been sort of labeled as someone who always trips up at the very end. People have labeled him as someone who works his way all the way to the top and then stumbles when he gets the big fight. In terms of facts, I guess that's true, but I don't look at it that way. If you hold a Khabib loss against someone then good for you, but I just don't find that to be very productive. The first loss to Conor wasn't great, but that was 7 years ago and at another weight. The Johnson loss isn't great, but it's not like Michael Johnson is just some guy off the street either and isn't everyone entitled to a bad performance at least once? I won't put that label on Dustin, but at the same time, he has come out on the wrong end of a couple of the biggest fights of his career, up until recently. I think these two wins over Conor signify a different version of Dustin Poirier who is more mature and really ready to make that jump to legitimate stardom and potentially championship status. You guys can do what you want, but when I make my pick, I won't be holding Poirier's past big fight performances against him. Overall, Poirier doesn't have many true weaknesses, rather just one really noticeable strength. He's so good in the boxing department that the other areas of his game are perceived as weakness just because they're not on the same level as his boxing. In reality, I think the other aspects of his game are solid, but unspectacular, with a pretty strong chin and slightly above average kicks. Poirier is solidified in his status as number one contender for a reason and Oliveira will have to be at his best on Saturday to come away victorious.
Speaking of Charles Oliveira, let's get into his resume now. The run that Charles Oliveira has been on the last few years has been nothing short of inspirational. I think damn near every person who watches MMA thought they had Charles Oliveira figured out. He was reduced down to a long, athletic guy with great submissions who would fold if you pushed him and made it a dirty fight that he had to work for. While maybe these things were true in the past, the most definitely aren't now and haven't been for some time. The problem is that this label stuck with Oliveira long after he had shed all of those question marks. Oliveira's last loss came against a now retired Paul Felder in December of 2017. After the Felder loss, Oliveira was at a bit of a crossroads. He had lost 3 of his last 4 and 4 of his previous 6 and wasn't looking like someone who would compete for a championship at any point. He somehow was able to turn it around and got to where he is today, but before we get to now, I want to address Oliveira from the start because I feel like some people just don't know the full story. Charles Oliveira is 32 years old, the same age as Dustin Poirier. People are more familiar with Poirier for a lot of reasons, but I think a major one is his role in Fightville, which came out in 2011. We feel like Poirier has been around forever because we've known his name and recognized his face for so long now. I think some people don't realize that Oliveira actually made his UFC debut before Poirier in 2010. Most of Oliveira's career was sort of rocky. He would win a couple, then lose a couple, then repeat. He went on a good run in 2014-15 before losing to Max Holloway. That loss kicked off the bad stretch I mentioned before that lead to that loss to Paul Felder. In the midst of it, Oliveira missed the featherweight limit multiple times and when combining the weight problems with the losses, it was all trending towards the direction of Oliveira not being in the UFC much longer. Oliveira made the switch to lightweight for the Felder fight and after that loss he was able to really turn things around. Since then, he's gone on to win 9 in a row, including wins over Kevin Lee, Tony Ferguson, and Michael Chandler in his last 3. In terms of his style, Oliveira has always been able to rely on his top notch Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills. I am not well versed in the world of BJJ and I can't argue who is or is not the best BJJ practitioner in the world. However, I do think I can say that in terms of adapting BJJ for use within an MMA fight, Charles Oliveira is the best to have ever done it in the modern era. Often times when you see someone come to MMA from the world of high level jiu-jitsu competition, they are too quick to pull guard and spend long stretches on their back. At lower levels of competition, that can work and they'll be able to find submissions. Once you get to the level of the UFC, Bellator, or even the PFL and ONE, if you just pull guard and look for arm bars, you will likely find yourself being controlled for long stretches and losing fights. Oliveira doesn't do this and instead is able to use his BJJ skills from the top in order to get his submissions and won't fight off his back for minutes on end. Charles Oliveira has the most submission victories in UFC history for a reason and that should be Dustin Poirier's main concern in this one. With that said, one dimensional fighters don't often get to the top anymore and Oliveira is no exception. A major factor in him turning his career around is the evolution of his striking skills. Oliveira has always been a long, lean, explosive athlete, but he now has the striking technique that enables him to take advantage of those attributes. Oliveira is not an extremely powerful striker by any means, you won't be mistaking him for Michael Chandler or Justin Gaethje, but what he lacks in raw power, he makes up for in technique and quickness. Oliveira does everything in a very by the book way, which allows him to be very sound defensively in the striking and avoid taking huge shots. All of his punches are straight to the target and his hands return to a high guard to protect his chin. We saw a perfect example of this when he won the title against Michael Chandler. Chandler was throwing massive, powerful punches over the top and he would have his hands low. Oliveira countered with a quick, short, direct left hook that put Chandler down and a few left hands later, Oliveira had the belt wrapped around his waist. Poirier has the striking advantage, there's no doubt in that, but Oliveira knocked out Michael Chandler, who just last month traded haymakers with Justin Gaethje for 15 minutes and made it to a decision. To take Oliveira lightly in the stand up would be a mistake. Another important advancement in Oliveira's game is his wrestling ability. Oliveira has gotten much better in the takedown department, which results in him averaging 2.64 takedowns per 15 minutes and getting them at 44% rate. When he was able to takedown Tony Ferguson basically at will in that fight, that was a sign that this is not that same Charles Oliveira we thought we had figured out years ago. As I said about Poirier, Charles Oliveira isn't the best fighter of all time and he's not flawless, so what are the weaknesses? For most of his career, Oliveira was simply too reliant on his BJJ game and was at a disadvantage on the feet. This is no longer the case for him. Oliveira has developed his stand up skills to a point where not only are they sufficient enough for him to hang, but actually a weapon for him. Oliveira also has a tendency to be finished when he loses. Of his 8 career losses, only one of them came via decision, which was to Frankie Edgar. I think this kind of plays into what so many people list as Oliveira's main weakness. I want to stress that this is not me saying this, but a major critique of Oliveira is that a lot of people believe he doesn't have the most heart. They believe that if you can put him in a tough spot, that he'll basically give up. People who think this way will use the fact that 7 of his 8 losses come via finish as evidence of this. They'll say that when he's met with resistance, he'll find his way out of a fight where that's just shelling up until the referee jumps in or puts himself in a spot to be submitted. I'm not a fight analyst, so I can't tell you whether someone is intentionally putting themselves in a bad spot or intentionally exposing themselves to submission attempts, but what I will say is that I think questioning the heart of any professional fighter is a dangerous game to play. These men and women almost kill themselves in the gym for 6 days a week basically every week of the year. They then dehydrate themselves to the point of hardly being able to function just to make weight so they can get locked in a cage in their underwear with another trained assassin in front of millions of people. That doesn't sound like lack of heart to me, but what do I know? Even if you are credentialed enough to say these things and actually believe Oliveira was prone to quitting early in his career, I would go back to the Chandler fight. Oliveira was hurt badly in that first round and Chandler came in for the finish, but Oliveira was able to withstand the onslaught and survive the round. We know in the 2nd round he landed the left hands that won him the title, but some forget the heart and will power he had to show to even make it to that exchange in the first place. Oliveira isn't a flawless fighter by any means. He's been hurt in the past and doesn't have an indestructible chin. He doesn't have crazy power in his hands or next level dynamic kicks, but Oliveira does everything with such perfect technique that he leaves very little openings for his opponents and on the ground his BJJ ability is second to none maybe in all of MMA. Oliveira is the lesser known fighter by the general public, but he definitely has the skills in order to walk out of the octagon Saturday night with the belt still around his waist.
While all of that is great, how does it all come together when the two need to use those skills against the other? Now, as I've said a million times, I am not an expert of technique and what one should use to counter the other in terms of exact ways to counter Poirier's left hand or Oliveira's exact style of takedown attempts, so keep that in mind. If you're new to the sport and you're looking for an extremely simple way to watch this fight, then the basic explanation is that the longer the fight stays standing, the more it benefits Poirier, while if the fight is taking place primarily on the mat, then that favors Oliveira. Now, in MMA, especially lower level organizations, a lot of fights can be boiled down to just that. One fighter wants to stand and the other wants to grapple and whoever can keep the fight in their realm more will win. However, in this case, that truly is over simplifying this fight because both fighters are proficient in all areas. What makes this such an interesting matchup is that both men are probably in the top 5 in the UFC in their area of strength. Dustin Poirier has out boxed Max Holloway, Conor McGregor, and Justin Gaethje. Simply put, he is one of the best boxers in the sport of MMA and virtually everyone he fights will be at a disadvantage when it comes to boxing. Similarly, if this turns into a ground based BJJ fight, Oliveira will certainly have the upper hand. Oliveria is one of the most dangerous submission artists this sport has ever seen and if the fight hits the ground, it's only a matter of time before Oliveira starts attempting submissions. All of that probably seems pretty straight forward so far. What has me caught up is how each man performs in the areas that aren't their strengths. I think Oliveira is better at striking than Poirier is at grappling and that's what has me undecided on who I will ultimately pick when I release that post Saturday morning. If you look at the stats, you'll see 7 submission wins for Dustin and 9 knockout wins for Oliveira, but those can be a bit misleading. Dustin's last submission win was a weird body triangle win where Anthony Pettis was forced to tap after suffering a rib injury. Obviously, the body triangle is not really a submission in the traditional sense, so Poirier's last actual submission win was all the way back in 2012. While the image of him almost choking out Khabib remains vivid in my mind, I can't help but think Dustin will be in deep trouble if this fight hits the mat, especially if he ends up in bottom position. On the other hand, I can't make sense of how Oliveira was able to knockout Michael Chandler. We just saw Chandler get bludgeoned by Justin Gaethje for 15 minutes and despite being dropped once, make it all the way to the decision. However, against Oliveira, Chandler was knocked out in approximately 7 and a half minutes. I trust that Poirier has a strong chin, but after that Gaethje fight, I can't say his loss to Oliveira was due to any type of chin weakness on Chandler's part. I don't think Oliveira has an uncrackable chin by any means as we saw him hurt and dropped by Chandler, but he was also able to recover and I think Chandler has more power than Dustin. One thing I haven't mentioned yet is that I believe Dustin will be the larger man on Saturday, which will potentially give him a little more strength in the grappling exchanges. I don't question Oliveira's heart like some people, but I think it may be impossible to have more heart than Dustin Poirier. He came back from hip surgery and walked right into a 5 round battle against Dan Hooker, which was a fight of the year candidate in 2020. I do get the feeling that if we see this fight get into the 4th and 5th rounds, we'll see Poirier have more of the advantage, but I have no confidence to say this fight gets to those rounds. I really feel like both men are so dangerous, that it will come down to the smallest details. Who has an easier time cutting weight? Who can rehydrate more effectively? Normally those aren't things I bring up, but I think it may be that close. No one really has a momentum advantage either. Oliveira has the title and more consecutive wins, but Poirier's wins over Conor on that stage, while overcoming personal demons from his past make it seem like he's on just as impressive of a run, if not more. I think the casual fan sort of expects Dustin to bulldoze his way past Oliveira and while that wouldn't necessarily surprise me, Dustin has to be careful. If he comes forward too much or recklessly, Oliveira can change levels and put Dustin on his back. Poirier has the skills to get up against most people, but Oliveira isn't most people. Dustin also has the defense to defend against most people's submission attempts to survive the round and restart the next on the feet. The problem is that one takedown may be all Oliveira needs to finish it. Instead of stalling out and restarting the next round on the feet, you may just wake up staring at the ceiling of the T-Mobile arena with the crowd going crazy because Oliveira locked in one of his amazing submissions and put you to sleep. I'm not just hyping this up for the hell of it (I don't get any benefit from it selling more pay per views anyways). I genuinely don't know who I am picking in that fight and I need to start writing that post tonight after Thursday night football.
I think this is the longest thing I've ever wrote for this, but I just had so much to say. I was going back and forth as I was writing this because everything I wrote sounded like a reason I should favor Dustin, but then Oliveira has a legitimate counter point. Then everything I say about Oliveira sounds like he should win, but Dustin has a legitimate counter point. Be on the lookout for my full card picks on Saturday morning because I'll have to make up my mind before then. What do you guys think? Who comes out with the win Saturday night? Who are you rooting for? Did I miss any important points? Does anyone who trains MMA have any specific technique based things to add to this that gives one an advantage I didn't bring up? Leave any and all thoughts in the comments below and I will reply to everyone. Also I'm getting a lot more views recently, so for everyone new, feel free to leave comments on my writing style as well. Anything I did that you don't like or anything I didn't do that you want to see? Any topics you want me to write about? Let me know your thoughts below and thanks for reading. I'll see you tomorrow with my picks.
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