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UFC Vegas 44 Preview: Brad Riddell vs Rafael Fiziev

 After a Saturday without any MMA action, we're back this week with UFC Vegas 44. There's also the Bellator event on Friday where Sergio Pettis will be defending his title for the first time, so I'm looking forward to that as well. You guys know by now that I'm not much of a boxing fan, so those fights last week didn't do much for me, which only adds to my excitement. My picks have been mediocre at best the past few weeks, so the break might have come at a good time. The main event will see top ranked bantamweights Jose Aldo and Rob Font battling for the right to potentially get a matchup with TJ Dillashaw. The co-main event will be Brad Riddell vs Rafael Fiziev, which for me, is the fight I'm actually most excited for. As Ariel Helwani would say, this is the people's main event (UPDATE: he called it this on the Wednesday edition of the MMA Hour after I originally wrote this. Just wanted to interrupt so it doesn't seem like I just stole it right off of his show since this will be live Thursday morning). This fight should take place primarily on the feet and should provide some fireworks before Aldo and Font make the walk. Let's get into each fighter first before we get into more details.

I know it's becoming a joke with how much I say I like someone, but I really like watching Brad Riddell. His fights never disappoint and I feel like the betting lines are always basically a pick em. He's only 4 fights into his UFC career, 4-0, but his resume is pretty solid for being that new to the promotion. He's defeated Jamie Mullarkey, Magomed Mustafaev, Alex da Silva Coelho, and Drew Dober. All 4 have come via decision, which is pretty surprising because I see Riddell as someone who has at least average power for the division, if not a little above average. He's also not afraid to trade shots with his opponents, but still doesn't have a knockout on his UFC resume. While striking is Riddell's primary method of victory, he's not completely lost on the ground either. He gets 2.00 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands them at a 42% rate, which isn't anything crazy, but it's not nothing either. He has 62% takedown defense, which again, isn't spectacular, but it should be enough in this case, but more on that later. On the feet, Riddell throws with pretty good volume, landing 4.75 strikes per minute. His defense is also pretty solid as he absorbs 3.18 strikes per minute. On top of that, Riddell has a great chin, so it will take something significant to finish him. He's only been finished once in his career and that came via arm bar. While he's without a knockout in the UFC, 5 of Riddell's 6 wins outside of the UFC came via a KO/TKO, so as I said, the power is there. In his last performance against Drew Dober, Riddell found himself in a back and forth battle where he had to take some shots to land his own for the entire 15 minutes. We saw Riddell's cardio hold up as well, which for a guy who hasn't gotten any finishes in the UFC and is hard to finish himself, is even more important. Riddell is a tough opponent for anyone and won't be an easy guy to get the jump on for as long as he's in his prime. 

That brings us to Rafael Fiziev, who I also really enjoy watching. Fiziev is also more of a striker to this point in the UFC, but he does it a little bit differently. Fiziev is probably the more explosive athlete, and thus will likely have a hand speed advantage. I've said it a million times before, but I'm not a fighter, I don't train, I'm not the fight style guy drawing on the screen pointing out techniques, so take what I say with a grain of salt. However, we know Bobby Green is still really fast with his hands and we saw Fiziev defeat him (somewhat controversially) in a stand up fight. I don't have any experience other than to say when I watch them on TV, Fiziev just looks like he might be a tad faster, but there's obviously more to it than that. Before I get into it too much, let's take a look at Fiziev's resume. Rafael Fiziev is also relatively young in his career, coming into this fight with a 4-1 UFC record. He lost his debut to Magomed Mustafaev and has since won four straight against Alex White, Marc Diakiese, Renato Moicano, and the aforementioned Bobby Green. Fiziev likely won't be looking to get this fight to the ground, despite having a submission win on his resume. He gets only 0.59 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 50% rate. Before I said this fight will likely take place almost entirely on the feet as Fiziev has 100% takedown defense. Fiziev is a little more active on the feet, landing 5.34 strikes per minute. One huge difference is that he absorbs more than he lands, taking 5.76 strikes per minute, although I do believe the Bobby Green fight may have skewed those stats slightly. Another concern is that Fiziev did start to tire late. Bobby Green was able to put it on him in the last round of that fight after Fiziev slowed down significantly. We know Riddell will be throwing until the final horn, so that is something Fiziev needed to take care of in this training camp. It's unlikely he gets the early knockout, so we'll see how he responds. If Fiziev can answer these questions, I think he can be a potential top contender in the future, maybe even the near future.

So what do I really expect from this fight? Well, I expect it to be a great fight in terms of technique and execution as well as a great fight to watch. Other than that, I'm not sure. I think both of these guys can end up in the top 10 and maybe even the top 5 of the lightweight division eventually. Riddell is much less flashy, but he's just so solid. He has good striking, with good power, good defense to go with a solid chin and a respectable wrestling and ground game. Riddell may not have the over the top strengths that we see in some fighters, but he really doesn't have any weaknesses either. Combine that with a good gas tank and a chin that hasn't cracked and that's a really tough out for almost anyone in the division. Fiziev on the other hand is the more traditionally exciting prospect. He has the speed and strength that capture the imagination of fans. He also has more holes with a lack of takedown ability on offense right now and his cardio has faded in the past. I'll make my picks on Saturday morning as I do every week, so I won't pick the fight now, but this is the one I'm most looking forward to. 

What do you guys think? Who comes out with the win in this one? Can either of them get a finish or does this one go the distance? Does the well-roundedness of Riddell get him the win or does the explosiveness of Fiziev give him the edge? Let me know in the comments and thanks for reading.

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