After a Saturday without the UFC in action, they'll return next week with bantamweights Jose Aldo and Rob Font serving as the main event. The way the 135 lbs division is shaping up, it seems likely that the title unification bout between Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling will happen sometime in the early part of next year. That sets up the winner of this fight to face former champion TJ Dillashaw in a true number one contender fight for the next shot at the championship. I feel like this fight isn't really getting the hype it deserves. I know Rob Font is the most well known guy on the roster, but Jose Aldo is one of the legends of the sport without question and this fight has real stakes to it. The only reason Dillashaw didn't get the interim championship fight is because he was recovering from a surgery. Everyone seems to think that he will be recovered in time to get the winner of this fight potentially around the same time that the unification bout happens, but that's not a given. If Dillashaw heals a little slower than expected, it isn't out of the realm of possibility that the winner on Saturday could potentially get the next title shot outright. Obviously we all wish TJ the best and quickest recovery possible and in all likelihood he'll be ok to fight the winner, but to just assume that will be the case is far from a sure thing. Anyways, let's get into this fight before we start looking ahead.
We'll start this one off with Rob Font. Font comes into this fight ranked 4th in the UFC's bantamweight division carrying a nice 4 fight win streak with him. Things haven't always been so great for Font however as he's been in the UFC longer than you probably realize. He made his UFC debut at UFC 175 in July of 2014, which was also the first time he ever fought at 135 lbs. He's had more success than failure, but he's always slipped up when they tried to give him a step up in competition. He's 9-3 in his UFC career with his losses coming against John Lineker, Pedro Munhoz, and Raphael Assuncao. All three are very respectable fighters and there's no shame in losing to any of them, but those are the types of fighters you need to beat in order to get the that next tier. His best wins at the time came against the likes of Matt Schnell and Thomas Almeida. All of that held true until his latest win streak. After the Assuncao loss, Font was able to put everything behind him and get over that hump. He's since defeated Sergio Pettis, Ricky Simon, Marlon Moraes, and Cody Garbrandt, setting him up for his opportunity against Aldo. In terms of style, Font will likely be relying on his striking and more specifically his boxing to win him this fight. Font lands over 5.5 strikes per minute, while absorbing only 3.57 per minute. He averages 1.20 takedowns per 15 minutes, but only gets them at a 40% rate. I don't foresee a ton of wrestling happening in this fight unless Font gets clipped and shoots for a desperation takedown, but I don't necessarily think Font needs to wrestle in order to have success. Font went 5 rounds in a main event against Cody Garbrandt and his cardio help up pretty nicely, so I don't foresee that being an issue for him either. Font's game may be simple, but that doesn't make it any less effective. Solid boxing combinations with fast hands will always be dangerous no matter how much the current strategy of MMA changes. Now that we have the main points on Font, let's take a look at his opponent.
What's really left to say about Jose Aldo. The man is a living legend of the sport and has been for quite some time now. The man is a former featherweight champion successfully defended the UFC featherweight belt 7 times before losing it to Conor McGregor. Before that, he was also the WEC featherweight champion and defended it twice before being promoted to UFC champion. I'm not going to get into the debate, but he is without a doubt in the top 3 featherweights of all time along with Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. He started his career 25-1 with wins over a who's who of his era which include: Urijah Faber, Cub Swanson, Mark Hominick, Kenny Florian, Chan Sung Jung, two wins over Chad Mendes, and two wins over Frankie Edgar. Unfortunately, after losing the title to McGregor in 13 seconds, Aldo never quite recaptured the magic from his earlier days. He won the interim title, which was promoted to the undisputed title in the second fight against Frankie Edgar after McGregor vacated, but that was his last really big moment until much more recently. He would lose back to back fights to Max Holloway before collecting consecutive wins over Jeremy Stephens and Renato Moicano. He lost his next fight to Alex Volkanovski before making the move to cut an extra 10 lbs and transition to bantamweight. He lost his bantamweight debut to Marlon Moraes and was rewarded with a title shot for the vacant belt against Petr Yan where he was was pretty good early on, but was ultimately TKO'd in ugly fashion after the fight was allowed to go on way longer than it should have. That kind of looked like the real beginning of the end for Aldo as his weight change wasn't providing better results, but he's turned it around as of late and is in yet another big fight this weekend. He's won his last two since the Yan loss, both by decision, over Marlon Vera and Pedro Munhoz. That brings us to today in terms of timeline and leaves us to talk about Aldo's style. If you're a long time fan, you likely don't need this, but for anyone new who isn't familiar with Jose Aldo, he will also be looking to strike in this fight. I feel like every time he fights now, they mention his underrated ground game, but we never really get to see any of it. He lands his takedowns at a 56% success rate, which isn't bad, but the problem is he never attempts them. He averages only .55 takedowns per 15 minutes, so I wouldn't anticipate any wrestling from him. I don't expect this fight to hit the ground at all because while Font has some wrestling ability, Aldo's 91% career takedown defense should be more than enough to prevent any of that. Aldo has sort of abandoned the kicks that made him so effective in his best years, although he has been kicking a little more in the last couple of fights than he was during the lowest points of the losing streaks. Aldo isn't as busy in the striking department as Font, averaging only 3.63 strikes per minute, while absorbing an almost equal 3.59 per minute. Aldo's combinations have always been his bread and butter and that is still the case. Like I said before, he doesn't kick as much as he used to, but the boxing combinations and his ability to mix it up between body and head shots is still the key to success for him. He still has good hand speed, so if he can keep Font guessing on when and where the shots are going, he can definitely have success in this fight. I think mixing in the leg kicks would also be a good strategy to limit the movement and activity level of Font. Unfortunately, there is one more thing to cover with Aldo and that's his cardio. I kind of hinted at it before, but Aldo doesn't fight with the highest pace and still has been known to gas at times if the fight gets into the later rounds. What benefits Aldo is that for most of his career, he was able to get out to a quick lead in fights, so losing the last round or even two rounds, didn't come back to hurt him because he was better in the first three rounds. Aldo is able to do this because he's generally been able to control the pace of the fight. He's lost twice to cardio monster Max Holloway, someone who gets better as the fight goes in Petr Yan, another cardio monster in Volkanovski, a split decision to Marlon Moraes, and got starched in 13 seconds by McGregor. If someone can force Aldo to fight at their pace, a higher pace than he wants, he can be had, but it's easier said than done. Even though the McGregor fight was short, Conor made Aldo fight in a way that he wouldn't normally do, which was his downfall. Given that Aldo is older and cutting extra weight, it's hard to imagine him all of the sudden having 5 fast paced rounds in him, but if he can keep Font at bay with kicks and control the exchanges, he is still plenty skilled enough to win this fight. One factor that is hard to quantify is big fight experience. While Font isn't a UFC newcomer by any means, he doesn't have the type of experience that Aldo has. Aldo has been in 5 round fights knowing how to manage the pace of the fight to best suit him for so long, taking advantage of his weaknesses won't be as easy as it may be for other fighters. Aldo isn't a perfect fighter at this point, but he's still very good and is most certainly not a pushover.
So where exactly does this leave us for the fight itself? Well, I think the last thing I said is really the key. Jose Aldo has to keep the fight where he wants it at the pace he wants it to be at. If he can do that, he can limit the exchanges, control the exchanges, and keep the cardio issues late to a minimum. If Font can't make him fight his fight and puts the pressure on Aldo early, then that will go a long way towards him winning. I think Font can learn a lot from the way that Petr Yan fought Aldo. Those early rounds were close and even if Yan wasn't winning them on the score cards, he was pushing Aldo to fight at a higher pace than he wanted. When the fight got into the later rounds, Yan was able to do what he wanted and really put it on Aldo. The key is that the fight is 5 rounds, a luxury Pedro Munhoz didn't have. When Munhoz fell behind, he almost had to just sell out for a finish because he didn't have the time to make up the points. It's not imperative that Font win the early rounds necessarily, but he has to make Aldo push for them. That will give him the chance to really take advantage late. With controlling the pace comes controlling the exchanges. I think it will be really important for Aldo to use his kicks early and often. Font will want to rely on his boxing primarily. If Aldo can use his kicks, he'll be able to stay out of boxing range and force Font to fight at a pace that he is dictating, which mitigates potential cardio issues. While I think Aldo needs to do those couple things, I think Font's strategy should be much more straight forward in nature. Essentially, if he fights his fight and takes advantage of what he does well, he can have a lot of success in this fight. Put the pressure on Aldo, close the distance to boxing range, and throw punches in bunches. I'm not a fight analyst by any means, but that seems pretty clear to me. Obviously, that's easier said than done and he has to be sound defensively against someone with the striking acumen of Jose Aldo, but I think Font definitely has the skills required to come away with the win.
The current odds have Font as a slight favorite and I think that sounds about right to me. I'll have my picks coming out either really late tonight or tomorrow morning before the card, so be on the look out for those. By the way, for anyone who doesn't read, I make picks for the entire card if that interests you for either a pick em contest or betting purposes. Anyways, what do you guys think about this one? Can Font make it over another big hump and get one fight closer to his first title shot? Or does Aldo turn back the clock and get a shot at TJ Dillashaw? Which of these two matches up better with TJ? Let me know any thoughts you have in the comments and as always, thanks for reading.
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