For one final time this year, I will be picking each fight on the UFC card taking place later today. I didn't start this at the very beginning of 2021, so the raw totals won't be very high, but we will use this winning percentage to compare to all future years of this website. It's been a bit of a bumpy road this year, but we did a good this past week at UFC 269 and are looking to finish this year out strong. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Let's do it one more time. By the way, this card is really tough to pick. So many fights I feel could go either way, which means I could end up doing really poorly or maybe really well.
Jordan Leavitt defeats Matt Sayles Result: Leavitt by submission (1-0)
This should be a close one. Leavitt relies heavily on getting his takedowns, which he gets at a 40% rate and averages over 3 per 15 minutes. Sayles is better on the feet and has good takedown defense, but has been susceptible to submissions in the past. Sayles hasn't fought since 2019 and I think the layoff will hurt him. It could honestly go either way and I wouldn't be surprised though.
Josh Parisian defeats Don'Tale Mayes Result: Mayes by decision (1-1)
Another pretty close one. Should take place entirely on the feet.as well. Parisian is the more active fighter landing over 6 strikes per minute, but he also absorbs more damage. Mayes is less active, but absorbs more than he lands. He probably has the power advantage as well. I think Parisian's chin can hold up and his volume strikes can get him the win.
Raquel Pennington defeats Macy Chiasson Result: Pennington by submission (2-1)
Another close one. Chiasson takes this fight on short notice and the fight is moved to 145 even though both women typically compete at 135. Then Chiasson misses weight anyways. Doesn't seem like Chiasson is in a great place physically coming into this fight. She'll have the size and reach advantage, but in a fight that would have been so close normally, I'll take Pennington on a full camp and in better shape coming into the fight.
Charles Jourdain defeats Andre Ewell Result: Jourdain by decision (3-1)
I guess I'm just going to start every section with "could go either way". Ewell is the much longer fighter of the two, but I'm leaning towards Jourdain. He is much busier on the feet and has the power advantage. Ewell doesn't shoot for many takedowns and has been on a skid recently while being finished his last time out. I'll take the explosiveness of Jourdain, who's one of my favorite lesser known fighters to watch.
Melissa Gatto defeats Sijara Eubanks Result: Gatto by TKO (4-1)
Eubanks missed weight coming into this one, so keep that in mind. Gatto seems to have the striking advantage, while having 100% takedown defense. She'll have a height and reach advantage in this as well. I think she can keep it standing and get the upset win.
Justin Tafa defeats Harry Hunsucker Result: Tafa by KO/TKO (5-1)
Justin Tafa became the first heavyweight to miss weight in UFC history so congratulations to him. They're both pretty similar fighters. This should be an all stand up fight with 2 men who take way too much damage. Tafa is a little more active and I think he has a little more power, so I'll go with him.
Raoni Barcelos defeats Victory Henry Result: Fight cancelled
Henry is an interesting fighter from the video I've been able to find of him. I don't doubt that he could carve out a role for himself in the UFC in the future, but getting a win over Raoni Barcelos in his UFC debut on short notice is way too much to ask. I always think of Barcelos as Edson Barboza lite. He'll have the striking advantage and with 92% takedown defense, I think he can keep it standing.
Gerald Meerschaert defeats Dustin Stoltzfus Result: Meerschaert by submission (6-1)
Both men are pretty even in the striking. They fight with a solid pace, but absorb more strikes than they land. Meerschaert has significantly better grappling and Stoltzfus has just ok takedown defense. Stoltzfus has decent submissions, but his takedown and wrestling skills are lacking, meaning he'll likely end up on the bottom. I think Meerschaert has the easier road to victory.
Darren Elkins defeats Cub Swanson Result: Swanson by KO/TKO (6-2)
This one may come back to get me. Cub has the striking advantage and he'll likely get an early lead. Swanson has ok to solid takedown defense at 60%, but I think Elkins can out last him. Elkins will not tire and not quit. If he can survive an early onslaught from Cub, I think he can use his wrestling and cardio to get the win over the second half of the fight.
Mateusz Gamrot defeats Diego Ferreira Result: Gamrot by TKO (7-2)
I think Gamrot is just the better fighter here. Ferreira is a little busier in the striking, but he takes way more damage than Gamrot. Ferreira has decent takedown defense at 66%, but Gamrot is a takedown machine averaging over 5 per 15 minutes, even while not being super efficient at landing them. I think he will prove to be too much for Ferreira in this one.
Ricky Simon defeats Raphael Assuncao Result: Simon by TKO (8-2)
I think this is the fight I feel most confident in, which means it will likely come back to get me. I think this is just two fighters going in opposite directions. Assuncao is on a skid, while Simon is rising pretty fast. Simon has relentless wrestling and the cardio to fight all day if he had to. He has the reach here, so while his striking isn't anything crazy, he should be able to keep it even on the feet until he eventually gets the fight down. Even though Assuncao has 80% takedown defense, I think Simon will eventually overwhelm him.
Amanda Lemos defeats Angela Hill Result: Lemos by decision (9-2)
This should be a fun one. I think Lemos is just a little better everywhere. Hill doesn't do much offensive wrestling, but her takedown defense should be good enough to keep this fight mostly standing. When it is on the feet, both are very busy and take more damage than they should. I believe Lemos has the power advantage, combing that with her better grappling and I think she can get the win here.
Stephen Thompson defeats Belal Muhammad Result: Muhammad by decision (9-3)
I did a full preview on this one, so I won't go into stats, but I think this should be Wonderboy's fight to lose. His expert level striking will give him the advantage on the feet and I don't think Belal's solid wrestling will be enough to get him 2 rounds with Thompson's pretty good takedown defense. Thompson should get a decision win.
Derrick Lewis defeats Chris Daukaus Result: Lewis by KO (10-3)
What can I even say. I think Lewis finds a way in this one. This is a huge step up for Daukaus and I think it may be a little too fast. He draws an extremely dangerous opponent, by far the best he's ever fought, in his first main event. I think over 25 minutes, he's bound to lose focus or make a mistake and one second is all it takes against long time UFC veteran Derrick Lewis. Daukaus was long to Shamil Abdurakhimov in a slow paced fight before he hurt Shamil late in the first. This should be another slow paced bout and Daukaus has multiple knockout losses on his pre UFC resume. I'll take the black beast to get another knockout.
Alright guys, that's it. Those are my picks for the last UFC event of the year. I took some chances on this one, but I really think they can pay off. Picking a Derrick Lewis fight is so hard, but I think he has a path to victory that may present itself at some point if he can capitalize on it. Darren Elkins is a risk, but I never rule that guy out of a fight. Be careful if you're betting this card because almost all of these fights feel like they can swing in either direction. Enjoy the last card of 2021 and let me know if you're riding with me or fading in the comments. Leave any predictions you have as comments as well. Of course, I'll be back to update this after the event and tabulate the results. Have a great day and thanks for reading.
UPDATE: Wow. I honestly wasn't expecting this. I had a hard time making these picks because I felt like so many of these fights could really go either way and somehow we managed to have a really good night to finish out the year. Great card to finish out the year by the way. Lost the Parisian vs Mayes fight, but I don't think anyone saw Mayes wrestling to that degree, so, I'm not too upset by it. Tip of the cap to Don'tale Mayes for improving his game and getting a great win. Took a chance on the heart of Darren Elkins but Cub Swanson was actually able to finish him in the early going. It's always great to see Cub having success. The one I really didn't see coming was Belal Muhammad, but man did he step up in a huge spot. I'll be doing a full fallout write up on that fight, so I won't get into that here, but a great night for Belal Muhammad and I'm happy for him.
We went the right way by taking Derrick Lewis as the underdog. Still not sure why he wasn't favored given the experience differential, but, I'll take advantage of it. We got the Amanda Lemos win in controversial fashion, so that's a win, but can't feel too good about it. Gamrot got the win after he injured Ferreira's ribs with a knee, but that fight was really close up until that strike landed. The last really close win was Meerschaert, who was a couple minutes away from losing a decision if he doesn't lock in the RNC in the 3rd. Happy to finish the year with two strong weeks in a row. I'll leave all the stats below.
Weekly Record: 10-3
Previous Yearly Record: 44-33
Updated and Final Yearly Record: 54 - 36
2021 Winning Percentage: 54/90 = .600
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