We've made it to the last preview of 2021 and of course, I'll have it out late because I am really dragging today for some reason. Anyways, the main event of tomorrow's UFC Vegas 45 card will have Chris Daukaus in his toughest test to date take on Derrick Lewis in his first appearance since his loss to Cyril Gane for the interim heavyweight title. When this main event was announced, it honestly caught me a little off guard because Lewis is a long time UFC veteran who is 1 fight removed from an interim title shot and Daukaus is only 4 fights into his UFC career and this was his first training camp as a full time MMA fighter. Up until this fight, he was still working as a Philadelphia city police officer full time, with MMA being his side job. I guess I sort of already started into Daukaus's story, so I'll get right into his resume.
The story of Chris Daukaus is an interesting one. If you're a long time fan or have just taken notice, heavyweight is one of the UFC's thinnest divisions. Most of the fighters in the top 15 in the weight class have been there for quite some time and young fighters making a big push usually have a hard time getting past the top 8 or so. Of course, if you're very new to the sport, you see Cyril Gane doing just that, but he's definitely more the exception than the expectation. Daukaus getting a push isn't that surprising because any new blood at the very top of the heavyweight division is a welcome sight. However, I don't think he needed to get into the top 3 this quickly because, while their is a lot of veterans at the top, the division moves extremely slowly. Because there's not a ton of fresh matchups to make and most of the top 5 has been in their mid to late 30s, big fights happen closer to every 6 months rather than the 3-4 month turnaround we see in the lower weight classes. It just doesn't make much sense to me to rush Daukaus into the top 5 in only his 5th fight, only for him to have to sit around for awhile after. The unification bout between Francis Ngannou and Cyril Gane is next month and then the winner will more than likely draw right into a fight with the heavyweight GOAT Stipe Miocic in May or June at the earliest. Even if this win made Daukaus the next number one contender, he likely won't fight for the title until at least October and if Stipe were to get his belt back, you can probably push that back closer to December. That timeline completely disregards the potential heavyweight debut of Jon Jones, who if willing and able to fight, would jump straight to the front of the line. All of that was if Daukaus wins Saturday and if he loses, all of his momentum was halted for minimal reward. Anyways, to actually talk about Chris Daukaus now, he's a really solid looking prospect in my eyes. He's 4-0 in the UFC since making his debut in August 2020 with wins over Parker Porter, Rodrigo Nascimento, Alexey Oleynik (who I believe was ranked at the time), and Shamil Abdurakhimov. Additionally, all 4 wins have come by way of knockout and this is par for the course for Daukaus. He has 15 career professional fights and only 1 of them, win or lose, has gone to decision. While, I think they're rushing Daukaus along with no obvious finish line, that's not to say he hasn't earned it. He's looked very good in all of his UFC appearances and has been met with minimal resistance. He was likely losing the first round to Abdurakhimov, but he dropped him with under a minute left, which definitely swung the round in his favor before getting the finish in the second. Daukaus has a pretty typical heavyweight style, he just does it at a size that isn't really that common in the UFC, which makes him unique. In the world of UFC heavyweights, they usually come in right at the 265 lbs limit or they're in the 225-235 lbs range. Daukaus is listed at about 250 lbs, which will give him a size advantage over the smaller heavyweights, but he'll still have a speed advantage over the really big guys, like Derrick Lewis. In terms of advantages, we know Daukaus is a finisher and will have a speed advantage. On top of that, he should have a grappling advantage. Daukaus is a BJJ blackbelt, but we've never gotten the opportunity to see him use it. Daukaus doesn't have any UFC takedowns and the only finish in his career by submission was a loss, so I'm not really sure what to make of that. Regardless, he will likely be better on the ground than Lewis as that is not one of Lewis's strengths. Daukaus will need to use his speed advantage in this one and if he can keep that up for 5 rounds, I think he has a good chance of coming away with a win.
While we are forced to speculate a bit on Daukaus because we haven't seen him in certain situations, that is not necessary for the longtime UFC veteran Lewis. He made his promotional debut back in 2014 and has had way more success than failure. He is 16-6 in the promotion and has fought basically every big name heavyweight to come through the UFC except for Stipe Miocic. Lewis has had 2 title opportunities and lost them both to Cyril Gane and Daniel Cormier, both of whom were extremely bad matchups for him unfortunately. Lewis does have some nice wins in his career over the likes of Curtis Blaydes, Alexander Volkov, Francis Ngannou (albeit in a weird one), Travis Browne, Roy Nelson, and Gabriel Gonzaga. Stylistically, Lewis is a lot more limited and everyone is a lot more familiar with him, so I won't spend as much time in the details. Lewis has built his game around his massive power in his right hand. Derrick Lewis is more than capable of knocking out anyone with 1 punch and everyone knows it. That is really the only path of victory for Lewis (he does have 1 submission win in 2010) and he really doesn't win by decision very often either. Due to his size, Lewis doesn't have the best cardio, so he is prone to gassing out, but he tries to control the pace of the fight the best he can. Lewis doesn't move around very much and tries to force you to come to him. This lack of movement conserves as much energy as possible and allows him to explode in short bursts in attempts to land his overhand right and get the knockout. Of course, most other heavyweights also don't have great cardio, so they play into the slow pace too and that has led to Lewis having a lot of success. While Lewis's game is simple, it works very well for him because he only needs one clean shot to land for him to get the victory.
This matchup presents a lot of interesting situations. There will be a lot of pressure on Daukaus here as this will be his first UFC main event, so there will of course be butterflies associated with that. Additionally, the pressure will be on him to create the exchanges. Lewis is unlikely to come forward and put Daukaus on his back foot. Daukaus will have to channel that nervous energy and be very careful. He will have to keep focus for every second and use his speed to move in, land a shot or 2, then back out before Lewis can land. We've seen Daukaus have a pretty good chin so far, but he has been knocked out twice in his career prior to the UFC. It will be interesting to see if Daukaus tries to get Lewis to the ground. If he does, he will almost certainly have an advantage there, but again, he has to be very careful. We saw Curtis Blaydes shoot for a takedown and Lewis landed the perfect uppercut that put Blaydes to sleep instantly. In almost every Derrick Lewis fight, you expect him to lose because the attributes of the fight suggest the other man has more ways to win. Most of the fights will even play out that way at first. Lewis is typically losing the fight up until the exact moment that he wins. All it takes is one false move or one mistake from Daukaus and Lewis will capitalize and get the knockout. Normally I talk more in these sections, but I don't really feel it's necessary for this one. Both men get a lot of finishes and get finished when they lose. Either Lewis is going to land his one big power shot and finish it or Daukaus is going to be too fast for him and he'll eventually put Lewis down after a few rounds of chipping away. I don't really see any other way for this to go unless we get the weird fight that we saw with Lewis and Ngannou.
What do you guys think? Who do you think comes out with their hand raised in this one? Does Daukaus find his way into the heavyweight elites? Or does Derrick Lewis add another knockout to his resume? Let me know your predictions in the comments. I know this isn't my best one ever, but thanks for reading and enjoy the fights.
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