We're going to take a break from dissecting UFC 269 and preview a couple of fights from the final UFC card of the year happening this weekend. We'll start with the co-main event between Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson and Belal "Remember The Name" Muhammad. Both Belal and Wonderboy are in the top 10 in the welterweight rankings with Muhammad being exactly at 10 and Wonderboy coming in at 5. The welterweight division is in a little bit of a weird spot because champion Kamaru Usman is well on his way to almost clearing out the division entirely. He has two wins over Jorge Masvidal and Colby Covington and single wins over Gilbert Burns and Leon Edwards. It seems likely that a rematch with Edwards is on the horizon, but beyond that the division seems pretty open. All of this is important because a win by someone in the top 10 that Kamaru Usman hasn't fought yet can leave someone maybe just 1 or 2 more wins away from a title shot of their own. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the winner of this fight finds themselves in a number one contender's fight in their next appearance.
With that said, we'll start with the blue corner fighter, which will be Belal in this case. Belal Muhammad is a fighter that I find myself rooting for more often than not and he's probably had more success in the UFC than you realize. Unfortunately for Belal, he's not much of a finisher, which probably contributes to him flying under the radar a little bit. Muhammad made his UFC debut in 2016 and he's had 14 fights since, with Saturday being his 15, so he's been pretty active in that time, especially in comparison to Stephen Thompson. Belal is 10-3 with 1 no contest in those 4 with 2 of the losses coming in his first 3 fights in the promotion to Alan Jouban and Vicente Luque. His only other loss came in 2019 to Geoff Neal and of course the no contest was due to the eye poke when he stepped in on short notice to fight Leon Edwards. Belal's best wins come against the likes of Randy Brown, Tim Means, Dhiego Lima, and Demian Maia. Since that 2019 loss, Belal has 5 wins with the NC in the middle of those. When it comes to his style, like I said before, he's not much of a finisher, which I think hurts him more in the eyes of the fans than it does in terms of wins and losses in the cage. He doesn't have the pure power and explosiveness of someone like Gilbert Burns or Kamaru Usman, so the knockouts don't come very easily for him. He also doesn't have the overpowering submission game like that of Sean Brady or Khamzat Chimaev, so he doesn't often find the finish on the ground either. He has 5 career wins by finish and only 2 of them have come in the UFC, so don't expect him to get this one done inside the distance. With that said, Belal does a lot of things well. In fact, he does almost everything well and that really is the main advantage that Belal leverages in most of his fight. He is so well rounded that there isn't an obvious route to beating him. Belal is a good striker and is fairly active on the feet, while absorbing less than he lands. He does get hit maybe a little more than one would like, but it's not anything that's too worrisome. Belal has really high level defensive wrestling, but I don't think he'll have to worry about that too much in this fight. He also has decent offensive wrestling, even though he doesn't land his takedowns at a tremendous rate, only 28%, but he does get 1.80 takedowns per 15 minutes, which will likely be important for him. It's almost hard to explain why Belal Muhammad is as good as he is because everything I just said kind of makes him seem like he's just some run of the mill fighter, but that is most certainly not the case. When it comes to Belal Muhammad, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts and he makes the most of all of the skills he has. I think what allows him to seemingly "outperform" some of his raw skills are his durability and cardio, which go hand in hand. He's only been finished once, which came in 2016 at the hands of Vicente Luque by knockout. He also has really high level cardio, which we've heard many times contributes to one's ability to take a shot. Belal is able to use his cardio to outlast his opponents in both striking exchanges and wrestling exchanges. I think he's being a little overlooked in this fight because he's not the flashiest in style, but he's not an easy out for anyone. The worst matchups for Belal are someone who is extremely high level in one area or a specialist of sorts, which unfortunately for him, is the situation he finds himself in now.
That transitions us right into Stephen Thompson. Stephen Thompson is a long time UFC veteran at this point and has a long history of wins and losses over notable opponents. In terms of wins and losses, Thompson has been a little up and down of late. I think that also may be one of the main contributor's to Thompson's "slide". He's just not very active and he never really has been. Thompson has fought more than twice in a calendar year only twice in his career: 2010 and 2016. So when I say "a little up and down of late", I'm going to say he's 3-4 in his last 7 fights, but that takes us all the way back to March of 2017. Those 3 wins came against Jorge Masvidal, Vicente Luque, and Geoff Neal, while the losses came to Tyron Woodley for the championship, Darren Till in controversial fashion, Anthony Pettis in Thompson's first and only loss by stoppage, and his last appearance against Gilbert Burns. While that's not the greatest stretch to be on, momentum isn't something I feel is as important to Wonderboy as it may be for other fighters. The first reason is that Wonderboy is so positive in his outlook on life that I don't think the losses really get to him. He's so comfortable with himself and his legacy at this point in his career that he's fighting free and easy without any extra pressure on himself. Additionally, Thompson has probably the most unique style in MMA today. When I say unique, I don't necessarily mean best style or most unstoppable, but most unique in a sense that if a fighter hasn't fought Thompson before, they've likely never fought anyone with that karate heavy style. It's to the point where he's actually really hard to prepare for because it is hard to find a training partner that can even come close to replicating it. Now, hear me out for a second and don't freak out. You can find training partners who can replicate Khabib's style or Jon Jones's style, but they're just not quite as good at those techniques as Khabib or Jon. You can put yourself in positions they will have you in and have partners simulate the techniques that they like to use, but they won't be as good, strong, powerful, long, whatever the case may be, but you can at least attempt to prepare for it. When it comes to Wonderboy, it is actually hard to find someone who can present you the looks that he will be giving you in the fight. I think that's taken Wonderboy to the highest levels that MMA has to offer, including 2 fights against Tyron Woodley for the welterweight championship. Now, I'm not a technique or style expert by any means, but I have listened to enough people talk that I know he is a karate expert. Thompson uses a wider stance and uses an in and out movement style that always gives his opponent issues. He uses a lot of kicks and his style becomes even more advantageous when he has a reach advantage, which he will against Belal. Wonderboy will not be looking for takedowns in this fight, which is why I said Belal's takedown defense doesn't matter much. Wonderboy's takedown defense is pretty good as well at 73%, which allows him to keep the fight standing, where he can use his striking advantage. Thompson has had a great chin over the years, which is partially why he has only been finished once. He pairs that with really good defense as he gets hit way less than Belal. Of course, Wonderboy isn't the best fighter ever, so he does have some weaknesses. Mainly, his ground game is a little bit lacking at times. He focuses mostly on preventing takedowns and if he does go down, he opts to use the cage to stand back up over submission attempts. Another "weakness" of Thompson's game is that his power has really left him as he's aged. He doesn't really finish fights anymore, which isn't necessarily a weakness in the traditional sense. Where it potentially hurts him is that this forces him to go the distance in every fight, which gives his opponent the full time of the fight to potentially land a shot or take him down and lock in a submission that can finish the fight even if Wonderboy was set to win on points. Wonderboy is a unique challenge for everyone in the welterweight division and shouldn't be overlooked just because he's been around for awhile.
Now that their resume and general style with strengths and weaknesses have been established, I think there are a few things to look for in this one. First, and most obviously, while I think Belal Muhammad is a more than capable striker, him having a 3 round striking battle with Stephen Thompson is not his path to victory in this one. If this fight takes place on the feet at range, Belal is going to have a tough time. Thompson's in and out movement, reach advantage, and overall striking acumen is just too great for Belal to overcome given that he doesn't have the one punch knockout power to even attempt to even the playing field (like Anthony Pettis did). That being said, it's not like Belal is helpless here, he just needs to dictate where the fight is happening. Belal's key will be to close the distance, which limits Wonderboy's kicks. From there, he can either look to land takedowns or clinch Thompson against the cage. It feels like Belal will have to win at least one round by getting a takedown and controlling Thompson for an extended period of time, but it's possible he can clinch his way to victory all the same. I didn't mention it in Wonderboy's section, but I think Belal has the cardio advantage. I've always had an interesting time when it came to grading Thompson's cardio because I don't get the impression that he is Max Holloway or Alexander Volkanovski that could just go all day, yet we never really see Thompson tire. This is due mostly to him almost always being in control of his fights. Even the ones he loses, he is generally in control of the pace, as long as it's happening on the feet. I think this contributes to Thompson getting so many decision wins. Even if the strikes are even, the fight just feels like Thompson is in complete control. This is going to be hard for Belal to counter because he isn't an extremely explosive athlete who could use his quickness and athleticism to explode to close the distance quickly. Belal will likely have to take a shot or two in order to close that distance and if he can't take advantage once he's on the inside, it could be a long day for him. You guys can see by now that I'm leaning towards Thompson in this matchup, but I do think Belal Muhammad is capable of turning this fight in his favor. Ideally, from an entertainment perspective, this won't look like Thompson vs Burns, but at the same time, it's Belal's job to win and not make it exciting. Clinching, takedowns, and ground control, have always been the name of the game when it comes to beating Stephen Thompson and that won't change here.
What do you guys think? Who do you like to get the win in this one? Did I miss anything when it comes to the style breakdowns? I really like doing that part, but you guys know I'm not an expert by any means, so if someone has anything to add or expand on, leave those comments below. Leave any thoughts or predictions you have for the fight as comments as well. Thanks for reading and have a good day.
Comments
Post a Comment