I know I'm a little late on this, but I didn't want to just ignore it either. It's been a little bit, but it was about a week ago that Kevin Lee was officially released from the UFC in a move that came as a surprise to most. This isn't the traditional type of post I've done on this website, so I'm not really sure where to go with it, but I'm just going to start and see what happens. The story of Kevin Lee is a layered one, so I'm not going to waste time.
We all know the UFC is a business first and sometimes that results in decisions that are hard, sad, confusing, or annoying at times. Ultimately, they will make decisions based on their bottom line and that seems to be what happened with Kevin Lee. I imagine that the contract that Kevin Lee was currently on was the largest of his career coming off of some high profile fights and an interim title shot a few years ago. I can only assume that in the UFC's estimation, they determined that they could not get the value in future Kevin Lee fights that the contract dictated they needed as a return. I'm not here to debate the morality or ability of the UFC to just be able to release people if you don't provide them a good return on investment, but I'm just saying it seems that would be the primary reason for anyone being released other than performance. I actually think that is probably the next best place to go, his performance.
Kevin Lee has had an up and down last few years in the UFC. Kevin Lee has a career 18-7 record, which while not like the most amazing record you'll ever see, is far from substandard or anything you would consider someone releasing for ability reasons. Lee saw a lot of success early on in his UFC run. He lost to Al Iaquinta in his promotional debut, then went on to win 9 of his next 10 to earn an interim lightweight title shot. His only loss in that time was to Leonardo Santos, who we just saw lose in dramatic fashion to Clay Guida this past weekend so everything ties in nicely. He has some notable wins against Jake Matthews, Magomed Mustafaev, Francisco Trinaldo, and Michael Chiesa in that time as well. Those wins earned him the interim lightweight title fight against Tony Ferguson, who was in the midst of his own long winning streak. Lee didn't even have a bad performance in that fight. It seems to be a general consensus that he won the first and lost the second before being submitted in the 3rd. He had some decent control time on top in that 3rd round even though Ferguson was looking for submissions the whole time and conceivably could have won that round too had he be more careful in defending submissions. He did seem to be tiring and it seemed that Tony would pull away in the later rounds, but Lee was hitting his takedowns at a solid clip and if he controls Tony in the 3rd without the submissions, he only needed one more to earn the decision. Unfortunately for Lee, he's never really reached those heights since that loss. Since that fight, he's only 2-4 and has missed a lot of time with injuries. Those two wins came in a doctor's stoppage over Edson Barboza after Lee missed weight and a devastating head kick knockout against Gregor Gillespie. The losses came to Al Iaquinta for the second time, his welterweight debut against former champion Rafael Dos Anjos, a submission loss to now champion Charles Oliveira, and his return to welterweight against a short noticed opponent in Daniel Rodriguez. While, the Rodriguez loss probably doesn't look great for a former title challenger, especially when Rodriguez took the fight no short notice, it's not like Rodriguez was a complete unknown. We knew he was tough and he had legitimate UFC wins in the past while being on a pretty good stretch. He's far from an embarrassing loss. That was also Lee's first fight in almost a year and a half as he recovered from surgery, so while that is a fight you expect Kevin Lee to win, given the circumstances it's not a horrible loss necessarily. However, there are a few more wrinkles to this situation.
While it's been a battle for Lee to regain the momentum he once had, it wasn't the same type of situation that we've seen with other UFC releases. Kevin Lee wasn't someone who was turning down fights or being brutally knocked out over and over again by opponents he wouldn't have lost to in the past. Aging veterans like Junior Dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Tyron Woodley had all sort of reached that age where retirement becomes a real story and their durability was showing itself to not be what it once was. A prime JDS doesn't get knocked out by Jairzhino Rozenstruik on one of the first clean shots landed. A prime Overeem doesn't get knocked out by Alexander Volkov's jab. A prime Tyron Woodley doesn't lose 10 consecutive rounds to Gilbert Burns and Colby Covington with virtually no resistance. This isn't what was happening to Kevin Lee at all. He was having some bad luck and while he wasn't performing up to the level that we've seen in the past, there weren't performances where you walked away thinking that Kevin Lee is a shell of his former self either. Kevin Lee is still a young man at 29 years old with a lot of fights ahead of him. He has more than enough time to take a step back in competition and regain his form before pushing for a title again. There is an added element of the USADA violation that came after his last fight due to his Adderall that he uses to treat a legitimate medical condition, but that was months ago and it hasn't even been brought up since, so I don't buy that as being part of the reason.
I've seen some people make the argument that the UFC released him because he was only a contender at lightweight and since he wants to move to welterweight, he's no longer a real contender because he'll be at a size disadvantage. If you believe that Kevin Lee wouldn't be a top 5 or top 8 fighter at welterweight in the UFC, that's your opinion, and I don't think it's an illegitimate one because there is always an argument to be made for each side, but I don't think it's obvious either. Yea, Kevin Lee will be at a height disadvantage against basically everyone at welterweight, which means his leg reach disadvantage would be noticeable, but so what? He's not Stephen Thompson, his kicks aren't the be all end all of his style. Kevin Lee needs to be wrestling and while he would probably be at a weight disadvantage on fight night against some of the bigger guys in the division, should he not at least get the chance to try? He has a 77 inch reach which is longer than a lot of guys at the top. That's longer than Usman, Covington, Masvidal, Leon Edwards, and Stephen Thompson, so he's perfectly fit for the division in that sense. I also don't think the UFC would release him for missing weight because fighters way less relevant than Kevin Lee have missed weight twice and not gotten released. Aspen Ladd has missed weight 3 times and almost passes out even when she does make it, but the UFC doesn't release her and she hasn't reached nearly the heights as Kevin Lee. Don't get it twisted either, I'm not advocating for Aspen Ladd to be released, but don't tell me that she gets to stick but Kevin Lee gets released for something he does less than her.
Obviously, I am not the owner or a top executive of a billion dollar company, so my knowledge of those types of decisions is limited, but I think the UFC made a very short sighted decision. I'll buy the idea that the kind of fights that Kevin Lee needs to get back on track might not provide the return that his contract requires, but what about when he does get back on track? Maybe Kevin Lee would be a main card opener on a Fight Night or somewhere on the prelims for a pay per view, but look at the prelims this weekend. I assume Dominick Cruz costs more than Kevin Lee and they have no problem putting him on the prelims for his second fight in a row. They do this at least in part because they know the potential return they can get if and when Dom turns it around and gets big top 5 type fights. I don't understand how they can still see potential in Dominick Cruz after multiple knee surgeries at 36, but a few injuries for Kevin Lee at 29 and they think he's finished. The UFC isn't hurting for money and I can already hear people saying "rich people don't get rich by losing money", but listen for a second. Maybe the UFC would have to break even for a couple Kevin Lee fights and is that great for business? Probably not, but it's the long term for me when it comes to Kevin Lee. He's only 29. We just saw Glover Teixeira win the title at 42 and I know the higher weight classes are different, but still. Taking a step back and making less money on Kevin Lee fights now could be so valuable down the road. This makes even more sense to me when promotions who make less money than the UFC will sign Kevin Lee to a deal that pays him the most he's ever made and they'll have room for him and give him a chance at welterweight, but the UFC just can't make it work. There's so many more fighters on the roster who are in a way worse spot than Lee in their careers who aren't in danger of losing their job. I'm not going to name names and be disrespectful just for the sake of doing so, but it just doesn't fully add up to me.
As for potential landing spots for Lee? I assume he'll be able to choose from almost anywhere. His brother Keith fights for Bellator and even though they sort of downplayed their interest, I assume they do have some level of interest in bringing him there as he has the short term name value as long as the potential to grown into something given his young age. We've recently seen Anthony Pettis go to PFL and they're also making a push to retain Kayla Harrison from the sounds of it. I don't see why that wouldn't be an option either. We heard in his interview with Ariel Helwani that Triller was interested, but I assume that would be for boxing and not MMA? If that's the case I don't really like that option for Kevin Lee, but it seemed like he was selling to the highest bidder and if that's Triller then best of luck to him. At the end of the day, I think Kevin Lee will have plenty of options and will ultimately find success wherever his career takes him. I think the UFC pulled the trigger too quickly and might live to regret letting him walk away. I wish Kevin the best in whatever he chooses to do with his career and look forward to watching him compete whenever he returns to action.
What do you guys think? Do you think the UFC acted too quickly? Do you think Kevin Lee can regain his past form? Where do you think he ends up? Let me know all of your thoughts in the comments and thanks for reading.
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