Where is Tony Ferguson?

Fan favorite and highly respected UFC lightweight Tony Ferguson has been gone for a little while now. We last saw him lose a unanimous decision to Beneil Dariush in May at UFC 262. More recently, Tony has gotten back to his cryptic social media posts, but we haven't really heard anything about him in terms of a rumored return in terms of timeline or potential opponents. In the midst of his 12 fight win streak, Ferguson was seemingly unbeatable despite taking a lot of damage. This exciting style paired with his unique personality is what endeared him to the fans. A Tony Ferguson fight was all but guaranteed to be a back and forth war with a high pace where Ferguson would be able to outlast his opponent with his top notch cardio. Unfortunately, despite all of this, Tony was never able to get a shot at undisputed gold due to his fight with champion Khabib Nurmagomedov being booked and cancelled I believe 5 times and it doesn't seem like we'll ever get that fight now. Khabib has since retired and Ferguson has taken a step back now after years of damage have seemingly caught up with him.

That's sort of where I want to really start with things: How have we gotten to where we are with Tony Ferguson. Tony won 12 fights in a row starting with a submission win over Mike Rio in October of 2013 and ended with his TKO loss to Justin Gaethje in May of 2020. The difference in the long win streak that Ferguson put together and other long win streaks from Khabib, Anderson Silva, and Kamaru Usman is that those guys largely dominated most of those fights. Ferguson on the other hand was not dominating, he was in a battle where he would absorb damage to inflict his own and outlast his opponents. While exciting to watch, it isn't the best for one's long term durability and health. My fear is that we've reached that point with Tony Ferguson and that the Gaethje fight permanently changed him. Ferguson took an insane amount of damage in that fight and somehow he still never went down, but Herb Dean was forced to step in and stop the fight after it became clear Ferguson was badly hurt and almost out on his feet. His next fight came against current champion Charles Oliveira and it was not pretty. That fight saw Oliveira dominate Ferguson for virtually all of the 15 minutes of the bout. Oliveira locked in an arm bar at the end of the first round that saw Tony's arm be severely hyperextended and likely limited him the rest of the way. Of course, Ferguson didn't tap and was saved by the bell, but the damage had been done. His following bout was against Beneil Dariush and was largely a repeat of the Oliveira fight. We saw Ferguson get taken down over and over, while being too tough for his own good and gritting his teeth and making it through submission attempts, a heel hook in this case. Tony again lost a lopsided unanimous decision and we haven't seen him since. After the fight, Dariush believed that Tony had suffered a knee injury due to the heel hook, which Ferguson denied. Given that we haven't seen Ferguson since and he's been largely quiet, I think Dariush was correct and Tony was recovering from an injury. Whether he needed surgery or not, we obviously don't know, but that heel hook was in very deep and at the very least, Tony probably would have needed some time to recover. December 15 will be 7 months since that fight and Tony isn't on any of the three remaining cards this calendar year. It's hard to imagine Ferguson not on a pay per view and with January's card already largely put together, it doesn't seem like we'll see him then either. If he wants a full 6 or 8 week training camp, it seems that the earliest he would return is February at this point. I don't think this bad at all as Tony doesn't need the octagon time at this point in his career. Given his age, Tony is closer to the end than he is to the beginning and taking time to get his health in order is more important than his activity level. As we approach a full year since Tony's last appearance, the natural question to ask is "What does he do next?". So let's attempt to answer that.

I think we can all agree that Tony needs a little step down in competition, but how far is that exactly. Tony has lost 3 in a row, but those came to the champion Oliveira, former interim champion and the next number one contender (after the title fight in a couple of weeks) Justin Gaethje, and one of the participants in the next number one contender fight Beneil Dariush. I touched on this idea in my post about Conor McGregor a few weeks ago, but we know they shouldn't be fighting the elites right now, but how far have they really stepped back. It's impossible to know for sure, but I definitely don't want to see him against anyone in the top 5 next time. Secondarily, I would like to see Tony against someone who wants to fight a similar style as him. For the past two, he's been taken down and controlled on the ground in dominant fashion. I would like to see Tony against someone who will stand with him so that we can actually evaluate where he is in his career. A third factor is something we can't know, but it is likely the most important and that's where Tony is at mentally. It's hard to get a read on the guy because he plays a character publicly, but where is Tony at in his own mind. Does he still think he can get back to a title shot? Does he still want to do all that grinding? Or does he just want to have a few big fights against big opponents and make some money before he calls it a career for good? If he really wants to try to get back into the title picture, he may have to fend off a younger fighter or two. Brad Riddell and Rafael Fiziev fight each other this weekend, but one of those two could be an interesting matchup. Especially in Riddell's case, he will stand and trade, which at least checks that box, even though it pits him against a younger and rising opponent. Dan Hooker is also an option, but it seems like Hooker is going to attempt to move to featherweight, so we'll hold off on that for now. If Tony just wants to do exciting things, both Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal are potential options. Both of them will stand with Tony and offer virtually no takedown threat. Masvidal is the much more dangerous fighter at this point and while I would favor him to win, I don't think that's necessarily an unfair matchup. However, I do like the Diaz fight a little more. They're both at similar stages of their careers and that fight sells itself. The lead up to that fight would be a lot of fun and due to their styles, I don't think it's possible for that fight to disappoint. 

I know someone is already yelling at me, but don't worry, I didn't forget. The one option that sort of does a little bit of both is the potential Conor McGregor fight. I think this is a matchup that makes a lot of sense for both men. As with any Conor fight, there's no concern about selling pay per views and with the die hard fan base that Tony has, that would likely do pretty well on sales if I had to guess. Both men would also likely view this fight as one that they could win and would also come against an opponent in the top 10, so it would turn their fortunes around as it relates to a potential title run. Conor still believes he can knock out anybody and even though Poirier didn't fall, he still hit him with some really hard shots that could and would knock out lesser fighters. Normally, I wouldn't question Tony's durability and even in his down swing recently, he hasn't shown any durability issues, but he's still getting closer to 40, so anything is possible. Tony would believe that he can walk through the fire early on and then use his cardio advantage to put it on Conor in the later rounds. Tony would also have the advantage on the ground if he elected to take it there. This would still be the big fight and big pay day, while still not being a pure "money fight" since both fighters are still highly ranked and come with a level of respect. Both men would be returning against someone else who is also a little down on their luck, so no one would have a momentum advantage, which I do sort of buy into at times. I think it would also be an attractive offer because every Conor fight has to be a main event and that gets Tony back into a 5 round fight, which allows him to use his cardio that he is known for. Secondarily, neither man would have to do all of the work to promote the fight. Normally, Conor and Tony are the ones doing the bulk of the promotion since they're almost always the A side of the bout. In this case, Conor is still the A side because it is virtually impossible for him not to be, but Tony already brings so much of his own fan base that very little promotion would even be required and neither man would have to carry all of that burden as both are very capable of contributing to it. I think this the one fight that makes so much sense for both men that it almost has to happen. I want Nate vs Conor III as much as anyone, but for some reason it just doesn't feel like that's going to happen, at least in the near future. If this were the case, it would be over a year off for Tony, but I think that could be beneficial for Tony and allow him to reset both mentally and physically.

What do you guys think? Who do you want next for Tony? When do you think he should return timeline wise? Do you think Tony's title run is over or does he have one more push in him? Let me know in the comments and thanks for reading.