For the final installment of this series in this format, we'll be looking at heavyweight. This series will continue in the form of a pound for pound ranking for both men and women in the coming days, but that's not truly a look ahead. Heavyweight is a division that will always get the hype in the public eye due to the size of the athletes and the power that they possess. There is a certain mystique surrounding heavyweights due to the history of the title in both MMA and boxing. That's why it may be weird when I say that I think heavyweight is one of my 2 least favorite divisions to watch, right there with women's featherweight. The division moves so slowly that there's never really that much to talk about. Additionally, outside of the top 4 or 5 in the division, the fights don't typically live up to the hype. Due to their size, the heavyweights just don't typically have the cardio to put on those classic fights. With that said, at the very top, heavyweight is very interesting because elite level heavyweights just feel different. We're about to get a heavyweight title defense this weekend, so let's get right into things.
Champion - Francis Ngannou
Francis Ngannou is one of the most terrifying people who have ever graced the UFC octagon. His power is other worldly. If he connects with a shot flush on the chin, it is virtually impossible to take it and keep moving forward. I think Stipe Miocic took the most hard shots I've ever seen someone eat from Francis in what was the last fight for the both of them. We all thought we kind of knew who and what Francis was and then in his last fight he showed a lot of improvements. We saw Francis be a lot more patient than he's ever been in the past. He waited and was looking for the right moments to unload his power and he did it as well as we've ever seen from him. We know he still has the option to open up and just unload until his opponent's back is on the cage and then land hard shots to put them down. He did that in his win over Jairziho Rozenstruik and it worked out, but to continue his title run, he's going to have to stick with the patient style. This slower pace will allow him to maintain his cardio longer into the fight. Someone as big and muscular as Francis is never going to have great cardio in the 4th and 5th, but if he can maintain that slower pace, he'll give himself a chance. Francis also showed significant improvements in the wrestling department. Now, I don't expect to see him throwing up triangles or anything like that, but if he can keep himself standing and off his back, that will be huge for him. He even got his own takedown and attempted a second one, so he feels confident in it too. Ciryl Gane is a tough matchup for him, but the game plan for Francis will be the same as it always is. Look for the power shot and land it when it's there.
Next Challenger - Ciryl Gane
Ciryl Gane is as talented as anyone in the heavyweight division. Of course, he's not only the next challenger, but the interim champion. His movement and agility for his size is freakish to say the least. He's a unique prospect for heavyweight as he relies more on his quickness than his raw power. He's a more technical kick boxer than you typically see at this weight as well. There's really no one else at this size who can do what he does, which makes him an extremely tough opponent for a lot of these fighters. He's 7-0 in the UFC and only 10-0 for his entire career. He's not very experienced at all, but he just came off of a fight against Derrick Lewis, who uses a similar style to Ngannou in that they look for their power right hand. I expect to see a lot of similar tactics from Gane. He should be looking to use his more diverse striking game with his kicks and then use his mobility to get out of there before Francis can land his shots. I expect that we'll see him being the one who moves forward as well, just like he did against Lewis. If Francis is the one along the fence, this will force him to be the one moving more, which will only deplete his gas tank. This also keeps up the threat of the takedown. Gane isn't a great wrestler by any means, but once the fight is down, he does have a decent submission game. Gane is an incredible athlete and has a bizarre skill set for someone his size. He's a problem for everyone in this division and even if he can't win the title this weekend, it won't be long before he's getting his next shot.
Contenders - Stipe Miocic
There's really only one true contender for the next title shot at this time. I know you're thinking about another guy, but I'll get to him in a little bit. Stipe Miocic is the most accomplished heavyweight in UFC history. He's not the massive heavyweight that you see in the form of Francis Ngannou or Derrick Lewis. He's a little smaller and leaner coming in around 235 lbs most of the time. Stipe isn't unstoppable at any individual aspect of fighting, but he's pretty damn good at almost all of them. He's primarily a boxer who mixes in kicks at times. Stipe uses his speed in the striking more than he does his power, but he has more than enough power to find the knockout if it presents itself. Miocic will also mix in the grappling, which really is what has taken him from a good fighter to a great one. The ability to mix it up and dictate when, where, and at what pace the fight takes place is what makes Stipe great. He can capitalize on any weakness that his opponent has with good technique and athleticism in every aspect of the fight. His experience from several years of title defenses also give him an advantage over younger fighters that have been challenging him. Stipe will get at least one more title shot in his career and I expect him to look good doing so.
Up and Comers - Tom Aspinall, Chris Daukaus, and Tai Tuivasa
Tom Aspinall is one of the brightest young stars in the heavyweight division and all of the UFC. He's been training with his dad for basically the entire life. He has a phenomenal skillset that is as well rounded as can be for someone his age. He's been pegged as a future champion for good reason. He has a great wrestling background and a submission game that we haven't really gotten too see to much from him. The one time we did, he took Andrei Arlovski so hard he almost ran him through the side of the cage before locking in the choke. We haven't gotten to see that side of him much because his striking is so good. He strikes with good technique and good power, with hand speed that is too much for his opponents to overcome. He's 4-0 in the UFC already finds himself at 10 in the rankings and if it wasn't for him making the intentional decision to move slowly, he would probably be higher. The general consensus on Chris Daukaus may be a little down after his loss to Derrick Lewis, but I don't think it's the big of a negative. That was Daukaus's first really big shot to make a push for the belt and he just couldn't stand up to the power. Daukaus is still a young fighter who will have plenty of chances to bounce back. He's 4-1 in the UFC and has shown a lot of promise in limited action. Improving his grappling would go a long way towards him having more success. His striking has been good so far and he has good power, but I don't think its enough to have him in a title fight at this time. Tai Tuivasa isn't the typical definition of an up and comer as he's been in the UFC for a little bit now, but the heavyweight division is a little thin and this is his first real run in the UFC. We'll see how far he can take it and his next fight will be against Derrick Lewis, so that gives him a chance to really jump into title contention. Tuivasa has tremendous power and is game to get into a brawl. He'll take a shot to land his own and that may not be the best game plan against someone like Lewis, but Tuivasa showed something in his last fight. He was much more in control when he fought Augusto Sakai. He wasn't as willing to immediately jump into a fire fight as we've seen him in the past and that maturation could be huge for him. He was content to be a little more of a traditional kick boxer before going in for the finish once he had Sakai hurt. If he employs that strategy against Lewis, he has a real chance as long as he doesn't take anything too damaging from Lewis. I said in my post about Tuivasa vs Sakai that Tai could start making a push and he could jump start that with a win over a top 3 opponent.
Wild Cards - Derrick Lewis, Curtis Blaydes, and Jon Jones
We've been mentioning Lewis for awhile in this post and that's due to his standing as a veteran of the promotion who has been near the top for awhile now. He's fought most other veterans and most of the top 15 as a whole. One of the few he hasn't fought will be his next opponent in Tai Tuivasa as I just mentioned. We all know what to expect from Lewis. He has power that is only matched by Francis Ngannou and he'll pick and choose when he throws it. When he connects, he's likely to get the knockout. Lewis is a wild card because he just had his shot at the interim title and ended up losing to Ciryl Gane. I'm not ready to rule Lewis out completely because he's been around for so long and finds a way to win. It may take him a little while, especially with the back log of contenders at heavyweight, but if he keeps winning, he'll find himself back in title eliminator type fights soon enough. Curtis Blaydes is another interesting case as he only has 3 losses in the UFC. 2 of them have come to Ngannou and the other to Lewis. Blaydes only real Achilles heel has been his chin. Now, his knockouts have come to Lewis and Ngannou so that's not exactly the sign of a weak chin, but still. Blaydes is known for his dominant wrestling and top control. He's able to take his opponents to the mat and smother them. He doesn't typically let his opponents back to their feet and grinds out decisions. His cardio allows him to wear down his opponent and leaves them unable to get up due to fatigue. His striking has come a long way as well. He's a powerful and explosive athlete, so the power has always been there, but his technique has caught up enough that he can use it effectively. He's not an amazing kick boxer by any means, but he's plenty good enough to hold his own against the top of the division until he can mix in his takedowns. Blaydes would improve with some more activity in my opinion. One of the biggest things working against him is that his style isn't very fun to watch. He uses control more than any damage to his opponent. If he were to get more active with ground and pound or add some submissions to his game, that would be massive. That not only gets the fans behind him some more, but would also make it easier for him to finish fights. If Blaydes can get more finishes, he would expose his chin less. Finally, is the guy you all wanted me to talk about. I put Jon Jones in this category instead of contenders because I feel like we still have more questions than answers. First of all, we're not really sure that Jon is truly planning on fighting again. He's been working to move up to heavyweight for over a year and we still haven't gotten any sort of rumor about his return. We all talked about Ngannou vs Jones for like a week after Francis won the title and that was it. Jon has since found himself in trouble with the law, which I really don't want to get into here. I'm so tired of hearing about Jon getting in trouble that I really don't even want to bring him up anymore. He's lost so many fans over the years and with each offense, he only lose more of whatever fan base he has left. Everyone respects what he's accomplished as an athlete, but the repeated arrests and then the PED stuff has turned off so many people, myself included. With that said, Jon returning at heavyweight would be big business and I would want to see how he looks at a new weight and how he performs. I just don't even know what I would place the odds at that we see him again. Jon is a wild card because we don't know if we'll see him and if we do, we don't know what he'll look like or who he will be fighting. My guess is that Jones walks right into a title fight. Like him or not, he's more qualified to move up and immediately get a shot at the belt than a lot of people who have tried it in the past. I think any of the 3 potential title holders would pose a serious challenge for Jon. They're probably the toughest fights he's had since DC. Obviously, the Santos and Reyes fights were tough on him, but I think Jon not taking those fights seriously contributed to that. Ngannou, Gane, and Stipe all pose threats to Jon Jones and I don't think he would have an easy opponent in front of him at all. I hope we get to see what at least one of those fights look like, but I can't say I'm particularly confident that we will. Jones is the biggest wild card in the sport and he has the option to not fight at all if he chooses, which puts him in the position of power.
Prospects - Alexander Romanov
There's only one real player in this category in my opinion. I'm not dismissing any of the other guys outside the rankings at heavyweight and I'm not even saying they couldn't go on a run one day. Just at this time, I haven't seen anything that really catches my eye in a way where they really stand out from the rest. Alexander Romanov is the exception in that he's won fights in noticeably dominant fashion. Now, he hasn't really fought the highest level of competition yet, but the way he's winning stands out. Romanov is extremely raw, so he has a lot of development left to do, but his wrestling has him bulldozing opponents to this point. His raw strength and wrestling technique result in him taking his opponents down and controlling them. He's displayed great ground and pound as well as a pretty good submission game for someone his size. His size is another factor. Romanov is absolutely massive, even at heavyweight and his size is a huge advantage when he gets on top. He also has a few weaknesses that he needs to get ironed out before he starts getting some really challenging opponents. While the size is an advantage when he's on top, it makes it really hard for him to have a good cardio situation. He also needs to refine his striking. With a man that big and his ability to explode in the wrestling, there is untapped striking power in there somewhere, he just needs a lot of work to be able to unleash it. With the right coaching, he could be a serious problem. His wrestling technique can also be a little limited at times. He relies too much on his brute strength to finish takedowns and can learn to use technique more, which will help his cardio situation by not having to use so much energy to finish each takedown. He's very raw, but the beginnings of something is there if he can improve the other areas of his game.
That's all I have for heavyweight. Might be a little short, but the roster at heavyweight in general is a little shallow. I don't expect the division to start moving more quickly any time soon, so I wouldn't be surprised if this list doesn't look a ton different next year. What do you guys think? Does Ngannou begin his title reign with a bang? Or does Ciryl Gane begin his own title reign? Can Stipe regain his title one more time? How far do Tom Aspinall and Chris Daukaus push this year? Can Derrick Lewis or Curtis Blaydes push their way into number one contender status? What happens with Jon Jones? Will Alexander Romanov break into the rankings? Leave any and all thoughts below. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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