Alright, this one will be coming out later than usual, but better late than never right. Lightweight has been the premier division in the UFC for a little while now. Conor McGregor became double champ at lightweight and he was followed by one of the most popular fighters of all time in Khabib Nurmagomedov. When Khabib walked away from the sport after defeating Justin Gaethje, some thought that we would see lightweight sort of fall to just an average weight class in the UFC and that has proven to be far from the case. 155 lbs is still one of the most exciting and interesting divisions in the promotion with no shortage of established stars and rising contenders. We'll go through all of those tiers here.
Champion - Charles Oliveira
I think Charles Oliveira is finally getting the respect he's earned and I can't help but be happy for him. Oliveira has had a long road to the top, but he's finally reached it and he's not letting it go. His win over Dustin Poirier cemented him in the eyes of a lot of fans who had anointed Poirier the unofficial champion after his back to back wins over Conor McGregor. Charlie Olives has now defeated Michael Chandler and Poirier for the title and he has a new found confidence that makes him feel even more dangerous than he's felt in the past. He's not perfect, he's shown that his chin can be cracked and he can be hurt, but the questions about his heart are a thing of the past. He's overcome big shots in his last two fights and came out on the winning side. He has this confidence that he knows he's going to get hurt and he believes he can survive it and get to what he does well. His grappling has always been amazing, but now his striking has reached a level that allows him to be a real threat in all aspects of the fight. I think Gaethje will be a tough test for him, but I'm glad Oliveira is finally getting some respect from the more casual portion of the fan base.
Next Challenger - Justin Gaethje
I really hope this actually happens because I think Gaethje has earned it. Dustin Poirier lost to Khabib and gets 2 wins over Conor McGregor who's only win since 2017 is Cowboy Cerrone and everyone is ready to crown him champion. However, Gaethje loses to Khabib and then beats Michael Chandler in a fight of the year war and a lot of people are question him as the next challenger? I don't know man, couldn't be me. I know Islam Makhachev is a great fighter who we'll talk about later, but I don't understand the rush to get him into a title fight. He just fought inside the top 10 for the first time in his career against Dan Hooker and now everyone wants to shove him into the title fight. I'm not going to use all of Gaethje's space to talk about other people because that would be unfair, so let's move on. We al know Gaethje's skills and style and that's why we love him. He's incredibly powerful and is more than willing to stand in the pocket and swing until someone falls. Luckily for him, it's usually the other guy falling before he does. He struggles at times to stay within himself and not go completely crazy, which could hurt him against Oliveira more than most opponents, but there's a time and place for that conversation. Justin Gaethje has a good wrestling background that he doesn't use offensively, but he's going to need it defensively to keep himself off the ground with Oliveira. I love Gaethje for obvious reasons and I think Oliveira will be tough for him, but this is the fight that needs to be made.
Contenders - Islam Makhachev and Beneil Dariush
For a division that I said is still so deep and great, to only list 2 contenders may seem a little strange. I think this is because the division is so tough at the top, that it's hard to put together win streaks, so you see a lot of the top 10 going 2-1 or 1-2 in their last three fights. It's so tough that stringing together multiple wins is enough to get you into a number one contender fight and that's what we have between Islam and Dariush. They'll fight for the next title shot in February and it's as clear of a number one contender fight as we have on the schedule so far this year. Islam Makhachev has been viewed as the successor to Khabib for awhile now and we're finally seeing that become clear. Khabib has walked away from the sport and Islam as risen into the top 5 in dominant fashion. Islam uses the same wrestling heavy and top control style that Khabib dominated the division with for several years. Islam obviously isn't quite as good and he's not as powerful as Khabib, but he is a little more refined in the stand up than Khabib was. Makhachev will fight for the title at some point in the future and if he's able to beat Dariush, it will be sometime in 2022. Beneil Dariush is fighting for that same opportunity. He doesn't have nearly as much hype behind him, but Dariush has earned his way to the top. Dariush isn't the most incredible fighter in terms of raw skillset, but he can get the most out of it. He's fairly well rounded, but he prefers to grapple if he can. His striking is a little rudimentary at times, but he's shown plenty of power and willingness to exchange. I have a hard time understanding his cardio situation though. I feel like Beneil gets tired pretty fast, but he never truly gasses out. I know that's sort of hard to understand, but I don't think I can articulate it any better. If you go back to the Drakkar Klose fight, Dariush was definitely tired after the first round, but that didn't deter him from mixing it up and getting the win after getting hurt badly in the second. Dariush is tough and won't quit. Pair that with pretty good grappling and powerful, unique striking and I don't think Islam runs over him like some are expecting.
Up and Comers - Rafael Fiziev, Mateusz Gamrot, and Brad Riddell
If you're new around here or haven't read anything else in this series yet, the up and comers section is generally supposed to be those inside the rankings, but outside the top 8-10. Some of the more shallow divisions make that a little more difficult, but you get it. My point is I'm not forgetting Poirier, Chandler, and other fighters in that range, so don't yell at me yet. Fiziev is probably the most well known of the 3 I have in this tier and rightfully so. He's on a great run in the UFC and has had some really exciting wins over notable opponents. His last two wins over Bobby Green and Brad Riddell were both great wins for Fiziev and great fights to watch. His resume is being built up nicely with names and his skill set is mesmerizing at times. His combination of power and speed in his strikes is a serious problem for virtually everyone in the division. He has serious potential in that regard. He's not far off of Gaethje and Chandler in terms of just power and speed combination. What he has going for him is that he's a much more diverse and creative striker than those two. Obviously, Gaethje and Chandler have more than proven themselves in the wrestling department and we haven't seen that from Fiziev yet, which is one of the biggest questions remaining for him. He's getting Rafael Dos Anjos in his next fight, so I expect that we'll see his grappling tested to some degree. He could be fighting for a title even sooner than I expected. If he gets the win over RDA, he could be a fight or two away from the title. Mateusz Gamrot is on a similar rise as Fiziev, with just slightly less hype publicly. I think that comes from Gamrot having a loss already on his UFC resume and being a little less flashy than Fiziev. Unlike Fiziev, we've seen Gamrot have major success in both the striking and grappling phases, which is why I'm so high on him. We've seen him be effective and finish fights with both strikes and submissions. He has no clear weak area and just needs to keep working and improving to find himself even higher in the rankings. I expect to see him fighting in some bigger fights by the end of 2022. Riddell is in a little bit of a different spot as he's coming off of a loss to Fiziev. I still like Riddell's skills a lot. He's fairly well rounded, maybe not as much as some, but he's shown at least a solid base. He's a better striker and he has pretty good power. He's a bit of a brawler at times and does rely on his chin a little more than he should at times, but so do a lot of fighters. He's not as jaw dropping as Fiziev or maybe some other fighters, but he's tough and has enough skills to go pretty far. He has to get back in the win column, but I would be surprised if we look up at the end of 2022 and Brad Riddell isn't in a pretty good spot going forward.
Wild Cards - Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler, Conor McGregor, Tony Ferguson, Rafael Dos Anjos, and Dan Hooker
This category is a little bigger than usual, but that's just kind of the nature of the division right now. When it comes to Dustin Poirier, he's in a little bit of a crossroads. He has some soul searching to do in terms of what he wants to do with the rest of his career. Poirier has spoken and come across like he doesn't really want to fight all that much longer, which makes it interesting. He's not that old at all and has multiple more title runs in him if he wants it, but he seems a little hesitant. This is all in the immediate aftermath of a devastating loss, so I'm not going to read too much into it, but he seems to be asking a lot of questions right now. He's also seemed to question if he wants to cut the weight much longer. I think he could move up to 170 and still be fine, but he's not as clear of a top contender there for me. I think after recovers from the Oliveira loss, he'll be able to get back on the horse and start grinding for another title shot. Michael Chandler isn't all that dissimilar of a spot. He has lost two in a row, but losses to Oliveira and Gaethje aren't career ending by any means. Chandler is still a huge draw and an incredibly well liked fighter who can't be in anything other than exciting fights. Michael Chandler has an incredible skill set with his wrestling and his powerful striking. Chandler is going to be in big fights, it's just a matter of which direction they go and if he can get back into the win column and back into the title conversation. McGregor is the big one because he just doesn't play by the same rules as every other fighter ever. Conor is coming off of the injury and 2 consecutive losses to Dustin Poirier, but there's talk about him potentially stepping in against Oliveira next. I don't think that really has much of a chance, but it wouldn't completely surprise me either. While I don't think he'll fight for a title next, if Conor gets a win or 2 in a row, you know the UFC would love to give him a shot, so don't be too surprised if he gets a shot in 2023 if he gets some wins after his return. Tony Ferguson is another really interesting character in this division. He's on a losing streak after his long winning streak and his future is sort of up in the air. He's fought as tough a schedule over the last several years as anyone, but having Tony take a step back and fight someone with a lesser name just doesn't seem right. I like Tony vs Conor next for both men, but we'll see what direction they decide to go. He's a fan favorite and for good reason and I just want to see him end his career on good terms if this is indeed the final stretch for him. Rafael Dos Anjos is a bit of a weird one. They've been using him as a gate keeper for a little bit now and he keeps winning. They really wanted him to fight Islam and that fight seems destined to never happen, but now he's getting Fiziev instead. If he walks out with a win in that fight, I think he has to be considered more heavily for a chance to fight up in the rankings instead of always fighting someone beneath him. He's a former champion and I honestly feel like he's been so overlooked the last few years. I'm not saying that RDA needs to be looked at as someone who will likely fight for a title again, but he needs to be getting a little more respect than he's received. Maybe we get that RDA vs McGregor fight we were supposed to get all those years ago, but it's not seeming likely. I love the up and comers and young guys, but seeing some of the older fighters still be able to hold their own does make me feel good and RDA is one of those guys. The final fighter in this category is Dan Hooker. I think everyone respects Dan a great deal, he's just had a rough go of it lately. He's lost to Poirier, Chandler, and Islam, who are 3 of the top 5 in the division by most people's estimation. He has the one win to break those up, but it's still a tough stretch. The rumor is that Dan is going down to featherweight, which if he can, I think would be a good move for him. However, with anyone weight cut, there's the question of how much it takes out of him and how his chin can hold up after cutting the additional 10 lbs. Everyone loves Dan and he'll be in big fights as soon as he turns it around. He's more of a wild card due to the potential division switch.
Prospects - Guram Kutateladze, Mark O. Madsen, Ottman Azaitar, Jalin Turner, Paddy Pimblett, and Claudio Puelles
Another larger class, but, this is a big division with a lot of potential. The first guy I have here is Guram Kutateladze. He only has one fight in the UFC and he defeated Mateusz Gamrot, so that's the level we're talking about. Obviously he's very inexperienced and needs to be more active, but the skill set really seems like it's there. He's a well rounded prospect with tremendous upside and I hope we get to see him back in the octagon soon. Mark O. Madsen hasn't been the most active guy either. He's grappling heavy as he has a long history in Greco-Roman wrestling and he uses it well. His striking is evolving and he's still undefeated. He gets Vinc Pichel next and I'm interested to see if he can continue his undefeated streak. I'm not sure how far he can go, but he hasn't looked out-matched yet. His unique style will give his opponents a look that they're likely not familiar with and that will benefit them greatly going forward. Ottman Azaitar is quite the case. He has incredible power in his hands, which has been his calling card in his brief UFC career. Unfortunately, he had the weird incident on Fight Island where he helped get someone into his hotel room that wasn't part of the bubble and he was briefly released from the UFC before being brought back. He has a lot of questions to answer about his overall game, but his ability to find the knockout is noticeable and has him on my radar for the future. A lot of those same things can be said for Jalin Turner. He's a long athlete who's shown some incredible power in his strikes. He's 4-2 in the UFC overall, but he's one 3 in a row and has looked rather impressive doing so. I'm interested to see his fight to fight improvements and how long he can extend this win streak. Claudio Puelles is a guy a little farther down the ladder, but he's 3-0 in the UFC and has shown some skills. He's primarily a grappler and he needs to round out his striking before he gets real title hype behind him, but his grappling is legitimate. He's a name to keep an eye on to see where he goes in the future. Of course, I would have my website taken off the internet if I didn't mention Paddy Pimblett and he's earned that. Paddy is a huge star and he has skills. He's primarily a striker and he needs to round out his grappling before he's title ready, but he has time. He has the star potential to really take off once he has more UFC experience. While his grappling needs to catch up, his striking and toughness was on full display in his debut. He got hurt, but battled back and showed the power to finish the fight. Paddy has all the makings of a star and we'll see if he can fulfill those projections.
This was a bit of a long one, but that's to be expected when talking about one of the deepest classes in the UFC. Is Oliveira finally getting the respect he deserves? Can Gaethje get the win over him? Who wins the Islam vs Dariush fight? Where do the likes of Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier go from here? Who do we see Conor McGregor and Tony Ferguson return against? Will we see Mateusz Gamrot and Rafael Fiziev rise to title contention? Where do we see the development of Paddy Pimblett and Guram Kutateladze lead them? Leave any and all thoughts below and thanks for reading.
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