I have a love/hate relationship with the welterweight division. At the top of it, welterweight is as good as any division in the UFC. The top 6-8 of that weight class is filled with absolute killers of the highest degree. Now, I don't think its quite as deep as bantamweight or lightweight, but that's just me knit-picking. I love welterweight because I just feel like Kamaru Usman fights have some of the most intrigue of any title fights that the UFC puts on. It's just a personal opinion and feel, but to me, all of Usman's fights feel like a big deal and I get excited for all of them. The hate relationship I have with welterweight comes from the behavior of some of those fighters at the top. So many of the top welterweights are so picky with their opponents and only want to fight each other or fight once and get a win then sit and wait for their title shot. Now, I'm not a fighter, but I can see how that would be annoying to someone like Neil Magny, Michael Chiesa, or Sean Brady. They can't get an opportunity to get into the top 6 because everyone there only wants to fight other people in the top 6. Say what you want about their careers, but Tyron Woodley and Stephen Thompson were both willing to give people some opportunities to break into that tier of fighter. Kamaru Usman had a hard time getting fights during his come up before he was eventually able to get his title shot. From a fighter's perspective, it's pretty annoying when you feel like a small group of people are holding you back because no one will give you the opportunity. From a fan's perspective, it really annoys me because we don't get to see any of these potential matchups. Colby Covington, Jorge Masvidal, and Gilbert Burns have been so inactive over the last almost 2 years that there's been no movement in the division. Leon Edwards has been extremely inactive as well, but he has some other circumstances at play, so he gets a partial pass from me. Regardless of the reasoning, that's 4 of the top 5 who only fight once, maybe twice a year, and only fight each other. It's impossible for a division to move on and create new contenders and opportunities when the top 5 only want to fight the other 4 and the champion. It's created a division that is very stagnant and it's hard to come up with matchups for people because the rankings never change and there's no movement. The top 5 is still largely the same, 6-10 is mostly the same, and there's minimal movement in 10-15. So many fighters at welterweight are so fun to watch, but we never get to watch them. All I'm asking for is to see the best fighters in the world fight in new and interesting matchups. I know there's a business side to things and you can't just accept every fight offered to you, but you have to accept a fight at some point. They can't always get another title eliminator or number one contender fight. Colby and Jorge are probably going to fight each other and that's an amazing fight, but to borrow a quote for Chael, "why are we here?" Sure, there's the history between the two, but that can only take me so far. I'm not going to be stupid and act like I'm not going to get excited for that fight, that Ariel Helwani hinted on Monday is going to be the headliner for the March pay per view, but where do they go from there. Jorge has the potential Leon Edwards fight as well, but where does this all lead to. As long as Usman is the champion, they're not going to get the title shot again any time soon. I just want to see some more guys get a chance and it doesn't seem like the top 5 is really all that interested in doing so. Anyways, I'll get off my soap box now and just get into the breakdown. I guess this is going to be a long one, so strap in.
Champion - Kamaru Usman
Kamaru Usman is the best pound for pound male fighter in the UFC right now and probably all of MMA. I know I'm biased and a big fan of his, but I don't have much in the way of negative things to say about him. He's been active the last year plus since the UFC came back from the pandemic and hasn't ducked any contenders. He's fought and defeated Colby twice, Masvidal twice, and Gilbert Burns since he won the title from Tyron Woodley. Things are sort of set up for him to get a rematch with Leon Edwards, but the timeline is a little murky since Usman said he wanted to take some time off and there was a rumor that he had a broken hand going into the last Colby fight, but I haven't heard anything about that in awhile. Usman has transformed himself into a physical specimen who used his pure strength and size and combined it with high level wrestling to dominate his opponents in the grappling world. He wasn't quite Khabib, but he was basically using the same playbook. As Usman has aged and since pairing with Trevor Wittman, he's elevated his game several levels. Usman might be as good in the striking as he is in the wrestling department now and it's showing in a big way. He finished Covington the first time with ground strikes after dropping him late in the 5th. He did the same to Gilbert Burns in the 3rd after damaging him significantly with jabs for much of the fight beyond the opening exchange. He spun Jorge Masvidal's head around backwards in their rematch. I don't know what I can say about this man besides he's the best fighter in the UFC. He'll probably lose eventually, but it's going to take an all time great performance or an incredible power shot to do it.
Next Challenger - Leon Edwards
I really shouldn't be surprised, but somehow I still am. I honestly can't say that Leon will be the next challenger for 100% certainty, which is quite honestly ridiculous. In any other situation, Leon Edwards would be viewed as the most dominant number contender ever, but for some reason everyone looks down on him. Dustin Poirier won 2 fights in a row over Conor McGregor who's only win since 2017 is Cowboy Cerrone and he was not only viewed as the only number one contender, but as the unofficial champion. Leon Edwards is 9-0 with 1 no contest in his last 10 and hasn't lost since he fought a young Kamaru Usman when they were both coming up in 2015 and everyone needs to see more before they can truly call him the number one contender for the title. I truly do not understand this concept. Look, I like Leon Edwards more than most, I get that. I understand he's not the most interesting guy and he doesn't promote himself in a way that gets his name in the news cycle. If we're being honest, Leon probably doesn't beat Usman, which doesn't help his case, but that's not what I'm talking about. From the competitive structure of the sport, Leon has earned his title shot and that's what I'm talking about. Also, anything is possible. We just saw Julianna Pena defeat Amanda Nunes and I guarantee the odds for Leon would be better than they were for Pena that night. Purely by resume, Leon Edwards is as clear of a number one contender that exists in the entire sport, UFC and everywhere else. Just give Edwards his title shot and move on.
Contenders - Gilbert Burns, Vicente Luque, and Khamzat Chimaev
This list looking the way it does may surprise some people, but just wait until all the other categories are completed before you yell at me for leaving someone out. Gilbert Burns is the most well known name here due to him already fighting Kamaru Usman once. He was finished in the 3rd round in that fight, but he had Usman hurt very early in the 1st round before that. I'm not really sure why, but the Burns fight didn't seem to have the same hype behind it the first time around and it doesn't seem like the UFC is in any rush to make it a second time, but Burns has obvious talent and a skill set that does present issues for Usman. His BJJ prowess limits Usman's ability to take him down and control him and Burns is extremely powerful and explosive on the feet, which allows him to be dangerous in the striking even if he isn't as technical and refined as Usman. It's not a fresh challenge, but it may be the biggest one left. The rumor is that he'll be fighting Khamzat Chimaev next and if he comes away with a win, he'll have defeated the hottest name in the entire sport and will likely have all the momentum he needs in order to get his second shot at the title. In a similar sense, if Chimaev were to defeat the number 2 ranked guy in the weight class who is viewed as maybe the hardest challenge left for Usman, then he would immediately become the number one contender. Chimaev has all of the momentum in the world right now and if he beats Burns, there's no way he's kept out of the title fight after. Chimaev is viewed as one of the biggest obstacles left for Usman, but we originally thought that he would be a few years away. After Chimaev dispatched of Li Jingliang in a round, that timeline got thrown out the window and if he does fight and defeat Burns in April, that timeline will be sped up as well. Chimaev has incredible strength, wrestling, and submission skills that we've seen on display multiple times now. We don't know too much about his striking yet other than that he has great power and was able to put Gerald Meerschaert to sleep with a single right hand. I think we need to be careful with rushing Chimaev into the title fight because there's levels to this game and if we put him in with Usman before he's really ready then that could hurt his development, but if people want to see it and he's winning, that will trump everything else. I want to see Chimaev vs Usman as much as the next guy, I just don't want to see Chimaev get in there before his skill set was polished enough to give Usman a real test. There's also the weight issue for Chimaev as he struggled to make 171 for the Jingliang fight and would have to get all the way to 170 for Usman, but that tough weight cut didn't seem to have any negative impact on his performance. Chimaev is polarizing and we'll more than likely see him in a title fight at some point, it's just a matter of when. The final main contender in my estimation is Vicente Luque. Luque's momentum towards a title shot has cooled recently after he missed weight as the back up fighter for Usman's last defense. Whatever shot Luque had at a title shot without another win were significantly diminished due to that miss and he'll almost certainly have to fight again now. Luque provides the fresh face that Usman almost certainly wants, but he'll have to successfully make weight and get another win inside the top 5 to make that happen.
Up and Comers - Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady
Normally I don't use people in the top 10 for my up and comers, but this is a little bit of a special case. Belal Muhammad has jumped all the way into the top 5 after his upset win over Stephen Thompson. Because Belal made such a huge jump, I'm not really sure where he stands in terms of a title shot. The number next to his name suggests he could be one win away. He's been aggressive in calling out Chimaev since the win and I think that would be one way to give him the push he really needs to appeal to Usman as a legitimate contender. He could also find himself in the cage against Vicente Luque in a title eliminator if not a number one contender bout, depending on the validity of the Burns vs Chimaev rumors. Belal is more of a jack of all trades type of fighter than a specialist, which I think puts him at a disadvantage if he were to get the title shot against Usman, but the improvement he's shown is real and he could find himself fighting for the title soon if a few things break his way. Brady is a little farther behind where Belal is and is more of the traditional type of fighter I have included in this section. Brady is known for his grappling and submission game, which he has used to finish so many of his fights in his brief UFC career. He got a big win over Michael Chiesa his last time out to put him in this position and I expect another big fight for him in his next appearance. He seemed behind Chiesa in the striking, which isn't a great thing as Chiesa isn't the best striker himself, so that's an area where Brady needs to improve if he is to find himself inside the top 5, but he's made it this far without it. Brady is still young and improving, so even if he doesn't get into a title fight in 2022, he has plenty of time to work his way up to that level in the future.
Wild Cards - Colby Covington, Jorge Masvidal, and Stephen Thompson
Colby Covington is widely recognized as the second best welterweight in the world and for good reason. He is a very high level wrestler with a volume based striking style. He isn't particularly refined or powerful on the feet, but his insane cardio allows him to overwhelm his opponents with the sheer number of strikes he throws out. Colby's chin has largely held up, with the exception being finished by Usman in their first fight and he was dropped in their second fight, but he was able to survive to go to decision. He's given Usman his toughest tests of his career by far, but he's now lost to him twice. Getting that 3rd fight won't be easy, but given how close both fights were, I don't think its impossible to make it happen. Colby will have to go on a winning streak and Usman will have to get through maybe another 2 or 3 defenses before it starts really getting talked about, but there is a path for Colby to get one last crack at Usman. Jorge Masvidal on the other hand has much less of a clear path. He also has 2 losses to Usman, but they weren't nearly as close. The first was a fight that Masvidal took on about a weeks notice and didn't have the cardio to hold up, which led Usman to wrestle him for 25 minutes. The second fight ended with Masvidal being knocked out cold, so there was a sense of finality there. Of course, if Masvidal can go on some sort of crazy run, the UFC would love to put him in a title fight because of the money they stand to make off of it. It sounds like Masvidal will fight Colby next and a win over Colby would go a long way towards convincing both the UFC and the fans that he deserves another title shot. I include Stephen Thompson here even though he's farther down than both Colby and Masvidal. Thompson was dominated by Belal Muhammad in a way that I don't think anyone saw coming. It is worth noting that Thompson is getting up there in age, which may be a sign that he's just not who he used to be. I still hold out some belief that Thompson can turn it around and get back into title contention even after being out wrestled in 2 consecutive fights. His style is so unique that I don't anticipate Wonderboy just falling off completely, but he has some real questions to answer for the first time in a little while.
Prospects - Daniel Rodriguez, Shavkat Rakhmonov, Ian Gerry, Khaos Williams, Randy Brown, and Muslim Salikhov
I'm going to address Muslim Salikhov first because he is actually in the rankings, which usually doesn't apply to anyone I have in the prospects category, but I thought his resume was more of a prospect level resume than the up and comers. He's 5-1 in the UFC, but his level of competition isn't really anything outstanding just yet. Salikhov doesn't get many finishes, but he does a decent job of mixing things up with an improving grappling skillset and a solid, if unspectacular striking game. His skills won't blow you away, but he gets the most out of them in a way that makes him very hard to defeat. He'll get his biggest test so far against Michel Pereira this weekend, so be on the look out for that. I am a huge fan of Daniel Rodriguez. He got to step in against Kevin Lee and took advantage of it. Rodriguez uses a volume based striking attack to get the better of his opponents in a style that I personally find very pleasing to watch. He has a little more power than a typical volume striker, but nothing too crazy in that department. What really put him on the map as a prospect was his ability to defend Lee's takedown attempts and keep it on the feet where he had the advantage. I'm excited to see what he can do with this momentum and would like to see him get a shot at entering the rankings soon. Rakhmonov is truly an incredible prospect due to his physicality. He has tremendous size and length for the division and pairs it with a well rounded game. He's not horribly active on the feet, but opts to use his size advantage to keep his opponents at bay. Both of his UFC wins have come via submission, which is probably the more polished area of his game right now. His experience levels are low and he'll get the steps up in competition with time, but this is a name to keep an eye on. Ian Gerry is a name that gets a lot of publicity as he's a massive Irish prospect who everyone loves to compare to Conor McGregor for obvious reasons. Gerry has all of the star power and charisma that you can ask for out of a young kid who just made his UFC debut a couple of months ago. He's a good striker with excellent power for the division, but he needs to refine his game. We don't know how his grappling will hold up against UFC level competition and he got hit too much in his debut, but he's still so young that he can improve on things quickly. The sky is truly the limit for Gerry and as long as he keeps working, he'll find himself in big fights before too long. He's a star in the making. Khaos Williams is a limited fighter right now, but he gets the most out of his skills. He's incredibly powerful and is able to find knockouts pretty consistently. He's very young and raw, but with improvements to his game, his power is a game changer. He doesn't have the level of competition to start making a push yet and hasn't been challenged in the grappling too much yet, but that will come with time. He needs to refine his game, but the natural ability is there. The final name I have here is Randy Brown, who already has 12 fights in the UFC, so maybe that disqualifies him from being a prospect in the minds of some. I chose to include him because Brown just oozes talent in my eyes. He has the length, striking ability, and power to be dangerous at every moment of the fight. He's shown both knockout ability and the skills to finish guys with submissions. If he has a weakness, it's the he can be finished himself, but his losses have mostly come against fighters who have risen to higher levels since those fights. He has losses to Luque and Belal Muhammad who are both now in the top 5 and Niko Price who is a respected UFC veteran. Randy Brown has the natural skills and talent to make a push if he can put it all together.
This may be a little shorter than usual because I feel like I didn't mention nearly as many fighters within the rankings as I normally do. There's just so many guys who I don't have much to say about and don't clearly fit the categories. Neil Magny and Michael Chiesa have been up and down of late. The same can be said for Santiago Ponzinibbio and Geoff Neal. It's all respect for those guys, but I just don't have much to say about them in regard to what these posts are meant for. What do you guys think? Should Leon get the next title shot? Can Burns earn the rematch or will Chimaev jump to the front of the line? Can Sean Brady or Belal Muhammad continue their run? Can Colby and Jorge settle their beef and put themselves back into the conversation? How far can Ian Gerry and Shavkat Rakhmonov rise? Leave any and all thoughts below and thanks for reading.
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