I'm writing this around midnight on Sunday and I'm still not really sure exactly what I saw a little less than 24 hours ago. In a time when we saw Amanda Nunes lose to Julianna Pena, I still found myself shocked and speechless at times watching last nights main event. If you're new around here, in these posts, I typically go over the performance for each guy and then sort of lay out what their next options are or could be. What will be a little different for returning readers is that I don't normally like to talk about the loser of the fight, especially a title fight first. However, given how complicated things are for Francis and how long his section will be, I want to put his last. Having a whole post about Francis and then throwing in one paragraph about Ciryl Gane at the end would seem a little odd. Let's just start it then.
Ciryl Gane worked his way up as the favorite to defeat reigning champion Francis Ngannou in his first title defense. In only his 11th career fight, Ciryl Gane had as much hype behind him as any heavyweight has in a long time, maybe since Francis first fought Stipe for the title a few years ago. That doesn't sound that long, but in MMA, things move pretty fast. Khamzat Chimaev went from unknown to most people to 2-0 in the UFC in I think 10 days and was booked to fight the number 3 ranked Leon Edwards 5 months later. To go 3 plus years without a new hyped contender in a division is an eternity. I was really buying into the Cyril hype as well. His athleticism for the division is just untouched. He's so big, yet moves so well, that he's just such a matchup problem for so many people. All of those things were still on display on Saturday. He was still a great athlete and moved really well for his size and used his quickness to avoid getting hit most of the time. With that said, I was actually a little disappointed in his performance. That's something that I don't normally say. I'm not big into criticizing fighters because I personally have no basis on which to do so, but I'm just keeping it real. He started off fine, but started at a little bit of a slower pace. The second round was his best round and the only one that he very obviously won. I don't hate that one judge gave Francis the first round. I had Ciryl winning the first and second, but the first was close. From my point of view, it seemed like Ciryl bought into himself a little too much. He almost fought too much into his strategy and didn't just fight the fight in front of him. He didn't show any sense of urgency in terms of even attempting to finish the fight. When he fought Derrick Lewis, he employed a strategy similar to the one he was using this time around. He needed to use his speed and quickness and avoid the big shot. Against Lewis, he did that very well, but when he came in to land his shots, he did so quickly and with intent. He showed power and aggression in a way that I just didn't see this time. It's almost like he got so consumed in this idea that he's the more technical striker that he felt he had to show that over the course of 5 rounds and ignored the possibility that the more technical striker can also look for the finish. Now, I never heard anything about Ngannou's knee until he was walking up the steps to get into the cage, but the broadcast seemed to imply that this was talked about all week. If that is the case, then I don't know why Ciryl didn't throw more leg kicks. I don't think he pushed the pace well at all, which I said was important for him. The rounds that he won were won slowly and didn't force Francis to use his energy reserves in a way that left him depleted late in the fight. He also didn't use his power in a way to damage Francis and leave him depleted. He just was content to do enough to win the round and move on to the next, which is a perfectly fine strategy as long as you can ensure that you're capable of continuing that for all 5 rounds. The problem is that Ciryl had no answer once Francis went away from his plan A. Francis started wrestling and Gane just couldn't stop him. Now, I say this all the time, but I am not an expert of technique and will never claim to be. However, I think I'm safe in saying that Francis Ngannou, as improved as he was, was out there Saturday performing some really high level, complicated takedown strategies. I am going to assume that the issue was the Francis is just significantly stronger than Gane and what he lacks in technique was more than made up for in brute strength. The size advantage once he was on top was also too much to overcome for Ciryl. I don't want to sit here and just blast Ciryl because I still have tremendous respect for him and believe he will fight for a title again in the future, but he just didn't look like I expected him to. It's possible it was just a little too much too soon for him. He's still only 11 fights in after all. I think everyone who thought and picked Ciryl to win were correct in the things they were saying about him, but for whatever the reason was, he just didn't put forward his best performance and I don't think he used all of his skills in the best way possible. To summarize my thoughts, I don't think Gane did enough to push Ngannou early and force him to fight at an uncomfortable pace that left him exhausted later in the fight. I thought he leaned too much into the technical, volume striker label and didn't force the issue enough and make real attempts to land damaging strikes and potentially finish the fight. He also wasn't able to adjust once Francis started to wrestle, but I don't hold that one against him as much because literally know one saw that coming.
While maybe I was a little hard on Ciryl, his career isn't over, so he has another fight on the horizon. Doing these for heavyweight is always hard because the division doesn't change hardly ever. Waiting for someone who is coming off a loss is a lot more difficult, so I won't be sticking to that this time around. For someone who's relatively new to the game, you may think there's plenty of fresh matchups for Ciryl. Unfortunately, that's really not the case. Of the top 6, Ciryl is one of them himself and he's already fought 3 of the other 5. I have to assume that's where his next fight will come. The next highest ranked fighter is Chris Daukaus and I don't think that will happen. The first option is Stipe Miocic and he may not be available. Depending on the availability of another fighter who may or may not be a heavyweight, Stipe could be fighting for the title next. I assume this is the fight that Gane will want. Fighting Stipe would be the highest profile fight Gane can get and a win would more than likely put him right back into the number one contender spot. Getting Stipe to agree to a non title fight may be a problem, but if that unnamed fighter does return and fight for the belt, Stipe is going to have to fight someone in the interim I would think. The only other option right now is Curtis Blaydes and given what we just saw, would probably be bad news for Gane. Now, we know Blaydes doesn't have the same chin that Francis has, but his path to victory is so clear. If Gane can get taken down 4 times and controlled for 3 rounds by Francis, he will likely get mauled by Blaydes unless he can knock him out. Regardless of which opponent he gets, they're going to really test his wrestling, so he needs to get his takedown defense in order before his next time out. Personally, I think the Blaydes fight is a lot more likely and I really think him dropping way down in the rankings to fight Daukaus or someone else is extremely unlikely. Actually, now that I think about it, the best possible thing for him may be for Tai Tuivasa to beat Derrick Lewis. That would give him a clear opponent that doesn't wrestle doesn't require him to drop too far in the rankings. I still think the Blaydes fight is the most likely scenario though.
Now, let's get into Francis Ngannou. I still can't really believe that Francis came out and wrestled his way to a win. The thing is, I actually mentioned the possibility that he could try it due to the confidence he displayed in his wrestling against Stipe. I thought he could potentially try it, but I didn't expect him to hit takedown after takedown and control Gane like he was Curtis Blaydes. While I put a lot of blame on Gane for not doing certain things, I do believe that Francis went out and took this fight more than Gane lost it. Francis was on his way to losing the fight and he went to plan B and Gane couldn't adjust. When Francis hit the sweep late in the fight and got back on top, I almost lost my mind. Francis Ngannou went from someone who got dominated on the ground to someone who wrestled his way to a title defense in less than 4 years. The work he's put in and improvements he's made in that time are nothing short of astounding. In terms of his striking, Francis did struggle with Gane's movement and speed. I suggested that Francis use his kicks in order to slow Gane down, but that was before I knew anything about his knee situation. Obviously with an injured knee, his kicking ability was going to be limited or completely removed altogether. This wasn't the best version of Francis I've ever seen, but it was his most impressive performance. He dug deep, showed a lot of heart, changed game plans on the fly, and came out on the other side a champion. What was really telling to me was how his cardio was able to hold up enough. Francis is never going to be Alexander Volkanovski, but he was able to go 5 rounds with wrestling exchanges and get the win. I don't think anyone thought he was capable of doing that and he really proved all of us wrong. I can't say enough about that performance and as weird as it may be to say, I'm really proud of him. I think everything else I really want to say falls into the future category so, we'll get on with that.
Normally these future parts are pretty straight forward. With Francis, that is far from the case. First, we need to decide what sport he will be doing next. Francis seems like he really wants to box and I don't blame him, especially if he can actually get the Tyson Fury fight. Now, I don't think for one second that Ngannou beats Fury, but that pay day would be way too big too pass up. Apparently Francis makes $600 K on his UFC contract and Tyson Fury made $30 million for his last fight. Even a third of that is $10 million and would probably make Francis more money on that one night then he would for the rest of his career combined. If that's the path he chooses, I'll be happy for him because he really has earned it. As a fan, I would be a little disappointed because he's worked so hard to get his wrestling to this point and for him to not use it anymore would be unfortunate. For a second, let's assume that the Fury fight won't happen for whatever reason and Francis will return to MMA. He can't really go anywhere beyond the UFC right? I'm sure every organization would love to have him and would make a call, but I just can't imagine Francis fighting Bader and Moldavsky in Bellator or Bruno Cappelozza in the PFL. The key here for Francis is that he won the fight. With a loss, Francis is in a really weird spot. Without the title, the Fury fight probably isn't an option and he loses a ton of leverage in his UFC negotiations. Now, Francis has all of the leverage. I believe that we will see Francis return to the UFC. I don't think there's a scenario where the UFC brass lets the reigning heavyweight champion just walk out of the promotion. It would make the new champion seem like a paper champion for awhile until they really carved out their own legacy. Francis could be the next massive star for the UFC if he gets marketed and promoted the right way. I think there's too much to lose for both parties and they'll be able to come to an agreement. If he does make that return to the UFC, there's really only 2 options for him. The first opportunity would likely go to Jon Jones. If Jon wants the fight, its his. The is arguably the biggest fight the UFC could put on across any division. I'll save the matchup breakdown for another time, but if Jon wants to fight Francis for the title, that fight will be made. The key to all of that will be what Jon wants to do and how much he wants to be paid to do it. That is an entire post in itself, so I won't get into that entire dynamic now. If for whatever reason Jon chooses not to fight or is unavailable for any number of reason, the only logical next option is Stipe Miocic. I know he hasn't fought since losing the title, but I think he's earned the same respect DC got when he was able to finish the trilogy without any fights in between. Stipe is the most accomplished heavyweight in UFC history and one last shot at the title is the least they can do for him after a great career. Its not like there's any other contender really banging down the door either. Just based on what we know about Jon, I can't in any confidence say that he will be both willing and able to fight whenever the contract with Francis gets ironed out. If its not one thing with Jon, its another. First, he has to not be in trouble with the law. Then, he has to not be in trouble with USADA. Then he has to negotiate his contract. I'll stick with the safe option and assume that Francis would complete the trilogy with Stipe if he does fight in the UFC next.
What did you guys think? What is you takeaway from the fight? How would you grade Ciryl Gane's performance? Who do want to see next for him? What did you think of Francis's performance? Where do you think he fights next? Who will his opponent be once he gets there? Leave any and all thoughts in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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