It seems that we're finally getting the finale to this trilogy. I say that it seems that way because with Figueiredo you can never just assume he'll make the weight. We've seen on social media in the last few weeks that Figueiredo looks to be in tremendous shape. He's always in great shape, but he looked noticeably shredded this time around. I hope that's a good sign for the weight situation, which we'll know for sure in the coming days. These guys have fought each other in their last 2 appearances, so if you follow hockey and know what a "natural hat trick" is, this is a "natural trilogy" so to speak. I can't say I'm a particularly huge fan of it to be honest. There's something about having the break in the trilogies that build the tension and the anticipation. When you have fighters who are 1-1 against each other and they're sitting at or towards the top of the division, everyone pretty much knows that trilogy will be completed at some point. I don't see the need to rush into it, but I'm just knit-picking. I'm excited for this fight because it feels like it could genuinely go either way.
I just talked about incumbent champion Brandon Moreno yesterday a little bit yesterday in the pound for pound rankings post. He's an incredibly inspirational story and I'm excited to see how he follows up that extremely emotional performance. His latest run has seen him win 5 with 2 draws mixed in. Wins over Kai Kara France, Jussier Formiga, Brandon Royval, and of course Deiveson Figueiredo is as good a win streak as someone can put together in this division. In terms of skills, I said yesterday that Moreno isn't going to bring anything to the cage that we haven't seen before. He's not the best at any one skill. He's solid enough everywhere and he lets his more intangible skills push him the rest of the way. Moreno is solid on the feet, he's not particularly powerful, but he throws combinations with respectable power and at a decent output. He's not Max Holloway, but he's not Ben Askren either. Speaking of Askren, Moreno is also a pretty solid wrestler. He lands over 2 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands his takedowns at a 47% rate. He also has the submissions once he gets to the ground to start looking for a finish. All of the physical skills for Moreno are solid, but it's the other stuff that takes those skills and gets them all the way to the championship. Moreno's toughness and cardio allow him to push past anything thrown at him. He can take the other guys best shot and then keep coming. His cardio also allows him to push the pace he does, when many others who make the cut down to 125 may not be able to keep up with later into the fight. That will be important in this fight in particular, but more on that in a second. Brandon Moreno has incredible heart and will not quit on himself, so no matter what happens, I don't really expect Moreno to be finished.
Moreno is a pretty steady source when it comes to his performance. He's not the most dynamic fighter with the highest ceiling, but he's consistent, which doesn't get as much credit in this sport as it does in others for some reason. Deiveson Figueiredo is the exact opposite. Figueiredo is up and down all the time and a lot of that has to do with his weight situation. He's massive for the weight class and has to cut a ton to get down to the 125 lbs limit. That takes a lot out of him and somewhat limits him, even with a good cut. Additionally, he is so muscular for his size that he runs into some of the same problems that we see with really muscle bound fighters in other divisions like Francis Ngannou. His stamina will be a key for him in this one. Before his loss and the previous draw to Brandon Moreno, Figueiredo had won 5 in a row. He's defeated Alexandre Pantoja, Tim Elliot, Alex Perez, and Joseph Benavidez twice. Where Moreno is a little more closer to average in terms of physical skills, Figueiredo is as athletic as it gets in this division. He's extremely explosive and dynamic in both the striking and the grappling. Everything he does is a big action with a lot of strength and power, which contributes to his cardio issues as well. Figueiredo is a finisher to the highest degree. He has both the knockouts and the submissions on his record. Moreno has to be careful to not find himself in a bad spot because if he does, Figueiredo can and will find that finish. I think I'm going to leave it at that for Deiveson and get into the comparison.
This is the part where we get into my keys for the fight. The first key is the pace, which I say all the time. Both fighters will need to control the pace. If Moreno can control it, he can force Figueiredo to fight at a rate that he's not comfortable with. Moreno will likely try to push the pace as hard as he can early in an attempt to get Figueiredo tired. If he can tire him out early, he has a chance to really put it on him late. If you're new to the sport and don't have a good grasp on what I'm trying to articulate or don't know an example, think of what Calvin Kattar did to Giga Chikadze last week. Similarly, Figueiredo needs to force the fight to take place at the pace he's desiring. He needs a slow paced fight otherwise he will likely gas out at some point. In addition to the cardio implications, a slower paced fight usually translates to a cleaner looking fight, which benefits the more athletic and powerful fighter. A high paced fight with lots of long combinations going both ways usually gets dirty and technique will go out the window a little bit. When there's short combinations with a pause in between, the power advantage is more meaningful since the total number of strikes will be lower. Figueiredo's power advantage will mean less if he's out-struck by 10+ strikes every round. However, if the volume is even, that power makes a huge difference. Whoever can go forward and have the fight moving at the pace they want will have a huge advantage as the fight progresses. Another key, which relates to the first one, is the first round. Deiveson Figueiredo needs to get off to a good start. No matter what, Figueiredo is likely to be the more fatigued of the two late in the fight. Winning those later rounds is going to be a real challenge unless he can really damage Moreno early and get them on a more level playing field. If Moreno is winning the early rounds, that's going to be a really bad sign for for Figueiredo. I think we need to see Figueiredo do something early that really effects Moreno's ability to continue. That can be a big strike that really hurts him or even drops him or get a lot of top control early to really impose his will onto Moreno. That's sort of how their first fight went. Moreno wasn't getting destroyed, but Figueiredo was landing the more impactful shots and doing more. It's when Moreno wouldn't go away that he got his way back into the fight late and made it interesting. In the second fight, when Figueiredo started slow, when he even started to tire just a little, he immediately got finished. The contrast to this is for Moreno to weather the storm early. Moreno likely can't win this fight in the first round, but he can definitely lose it. He needs to keep himself safe, but draw out some big effort attacks from Figueiredo. Put the pace on early and then take advantage in the second half of the fight. If Moreno can keep those early rounds close, that will be a huge factor towards him winning. The final factor will honestly be the weight cut. I think on Friday morning, we'll get a really good sense of how this fight is going to go. Last time we say Deiveson weigh in with like 2 seconds left on the clock and he looked bad. If we get that same story this Friday, I would expect we get a similar looking fight. If we see Figueiredo weight in early and look relatively healthy, I think we'll see a fight much more similar to their first bout. I know that has nothing to do with the in cage tactics, but that is honestly such a huge story in this fight. It may be the most important part of the entire week for Figueiredo. If he can't get the weight cut right, then I don't know if he even has a chance.
What do you guys think? Who do you like to come out on top? What is your biggest key to victory for each fighter? What did I leave out? What strategic points are you guys keeping an eye on in the early going of this one? Leave any and all thoughts below. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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