Normally a pay per view co-main event carries a little more in terms of stakes, but you're not going to catch me complaining about this one. Sometimes it is ok to just have some fun and put on a good fight. This is my biggest problem with Chael Sonnen's YouTube videos. He tries to make this point of "why are we here" as if all 11+ fights on the 45+ cards a year need some sort of high stakes and I really don't understand it. It is literally impossible to put on as many events with as many fights each as the UFC does and have every single matchup have a clear answer to "why are we here". I haven't been to his channel in a few days, so I don't know if he has a video on this topic yet, but I'm sure he'll be complaining about it. For someone who's long lasting legacy will be how he helped transform MMA from just an athletic contest to entertainment with his skills on the microphone, he seems to forget that the UFC is still entertainment at the end of the day and some fights are put together for the purpose of entertaining fans and being fun to watch. This isn't to say that Derrick Lewis vs Tai Tuivasa is completely free of any stakes, but it's not a clear number one contender fight either because Lewis was just in that spot and lost. It is much more of a traditional title eliminator for Tuivasa as he would be new blood in the top 5 if he can come away with a win. More importantly, this is a co-main event that has two fighters who try to knock their opponents out and are fan favorites who people like to watch. We're going to preview this one and touch on what the stakes for this fight entail.
We'll start with the blue corner and, in this case, that's Tai Tuivasa. Tuivasa is the fighter who has much more to gain in this fight. He comes in ranked 11 and with a win, would be able to enter the top 5, likely at Lewis's number 3 spot. He's gotten this opportunity due to the best run of his UFC career, a 4 fight win streak. Those wins have come against Stefan Struve, Harry Hunsucker, Greg Hardy, and most recently Augusto Sakai. While that's not the most impressive list of names to go through, the way he won all of those fights came in devastating fashion. 3 of the 4 ended inside the first round and the other was finished 26 seconds into the second round. Tuivasa has really found the knockout punch recently and he's probably going to need in on Saturday if he's going to being doing a shoey Saturday night. Tuivasa's typical style is what you would expect from someone with his demeanor. He's game to fight and he's ready to get into the pocket and he's banking on knocking you out before you can knock him out. He's only lost by knockout once despite this and that came to former champion Junior Dos Santos. Tuivasa was a pretty predictable fighter up until his last fight against Augusto Sakai, where he showed us a more layered game. He wasn't as willing to just crash in and create chaos. He fought a lot cleaner and looked like he had really refined some of his kick boxing skills. He was using more jabs, combinations, and kicks than we have seen from him in the past. He fought a more patient fight and then only went in for the finish after he had Sakai hurt along the fence. That is a huge advancement for Tai and skills he will definitely need as he continues to move up the heavyweight ladder. Make no mistakes though, if Tuivasa is going to win, it's going to come from a power shot with his right hand. His new found skills will help him to set up his power shots and do give him a chance to win rounds without getting a knockout down. He won't find himself down in fights and having to force things potentially. One big advantage that he has over a lot of heavyweights is the volume that he throws strikes with. He's a lot more active on the feet than a lot of other heavyweights who prefer a much slower and measured style of fight. Tuivasa isn't flawless though and against an opponent like Lewis, he'll have to be careful. His main weakness comes in the grappling, which Lewis won't being looking to take advantage of, so that won't come into play. Other than that, Tai has been hurt in the past, but I don't worry about chin as much at heavyweight as I do at other weights. With the power of heavyweights these days, no one is just eating more than a couple shots from anyone. Tai has to keep his defensive guard high and be ready to slide out of the way of the big punches of Lewis. A clean shot from the black beast is as close to a guaranteed knockout as has ever existed in this sport, so he's going to have to avoid that. Of course, as a big guy who has to cut weight to get to the 265 lbs limit, cardio is one of his weaknesses as well. He hasn't really needed a full 3 rounds in awhile and I don't really expect him to need it this time out either one way or the other.
A lot of what I just said about Tuivasa can also be applied to Derrick Lewis, but we'll get into his style in a second. First, we'll go over Lewis's resume. Derrick Lewis is a long time veteran of the UFC's heavyweight division and has fought a laundry list of the top heavyweights who have come through the UFC in the last decade. He's 5-1 in his last 6 and was recently in an interim title fight with Ciryl Gane, which he came up short in. Going into that fight, he had consecutive wins over Blagoy Ivanov, Illir Latifi, Alexey Oleynik, and Curtis Blaydes. He lost the interim title fight to Gane, but then bounced back against Chris Daukaus in the last card of 2021 in December. This will be a bit of a quick turnaround for him, but he didn't take any damage in that fight, so there was no need to wait if he didn't want to. Unlike a lot of his UFC peers, Lewis isn't afraid to fight down in the rankings and I have to give him a lot of credit. This fight will play right into his hands in terms of style, so I think this is an attractive fight for him. He gets another opportunity to fight in front of his hometown of Houston as well, so that only adds to things for him I imagine. Lewis is only one fight removed from the interim title shot, so he's still in the process of building himself back up, which is why this fight is even on the table for him. Now, most people will probably be familiar with Derrick's style, but there's always new fans, so if that's you then I'll try to explain. Lewis is a pretty straight forward fighter, much like Tuivasa. He has incredible power, especially in his right hand. Everything he does is an effort to set up chances to land that power shot. For someone as large as Lewis, he is a very good athlete and will mix in some jumping and spinning techniques if he sees an opening. He has the most knockout wins in the history of the UFC for a reason. His power is next level and he will only have to land once to finish the fight. He likes to come forward and put the pressure on his opponents, but he does so in a slow paced, plodding type of way. He doesn't rush his opponents in a flurry, but just slowly backs his opponent up until their back is on the cage and they have nowhere to go. Unlike Tuivasa, his activity levels are much lower. He doesn't throw out a lot of punches or kicks to set up his shots, but rather just stands and waits for his opportunities and openings to unload. I say it all the time, but Lewis is losing basically every fight he's in up until the moment that he wins it and this is why. He doesn't throw out a lot of volume, so he does have a tendency to fall behind on the scorecards, but Lewis isn't really that concerned with it. He's looking for his opportunity to finish the fight and if he can't, it's usually to his detriment. Like I said about Tuivasa, as a guy who has to cut weight, his cardio is a weakness, but I don't foresee this fight getting deep into things, so that probably won't be an issue. Again, similar to what I said about Tai, Lewis's chin has been found a few times in his career. Lewis can be finished, but at heavyweight I just can't put too much stock into it. These men are so powerful that clean shots on the chin are going to put basically anyone out. Lewis has been around the heavyweight division and especially the top of it for awhile now. He's been in these spots before and he's seen basically everything there is to show.
Now, maybe getting into strategy with this fight is wasting my time because it could divulge into "whoever lands first" very quickly, but we're going to talk matchup a little bit. This is a particularly interesting matchup because both guys are looking to do a lot of the same things. I always say the first key is dictating how the fight plays out. In this fight, that won't mean striking vs grappling since neither guy is looking to grapple in any way, but rather who can lead the exchanges and move forward. I don't think Tai Tuivasa knows how to go backwards, especially in this run that he's in. He's not afraid to stand his ground and trade, even against guys who have good power. He was hurt by Greg Hardy and held his ground before he was able to land the knockout shot. Trading with Derrick Lewis wouldn't be my recommended course of action, but it is part of who Tuivasa is. If he can employ or even build on the version of himself we saw against Sakai, then things get very interesting. That patient version of Tuivasa who is content to land strikes without crashing in and going for the finish has a chance to be very successful in this fight. His numbers suggest he'll be able to out volume Lewis, but being able to do it in a way that is safe is the most important thing. I think being able to go forward is more important for Tuivasa because that is a guaranteed way to keep himself under control. If he's going forward then he is able to use his kicks and pick his shots more carefully. On the other hand, if Lewis is pushing him back, we may get the Tuivasa who's going to get into wild exchanges and at that point, all bets are off. I don't think going forward is as important for Lewis though. Now, he's a much better fighter when he's going forward, but he doesn't need to do it the entire time. Lewis lands his offense in bursts rather than sustained dominance. He is used to being on the defensive for part of most of his fights. He's not looking to land strikes and get ahead on the scorecards, but rather to finish the fight at any moment. He also has to be careful though. Lewis has always thrived when the fights open up because he almost always has the power advantage. I think he still does have the power advantage here, but it's not nearly as obvious as it typically is. An important aspect of all of this is that Lewis will have a reach advantage. That means Tuivasa will have to come to him, which is exactly what Lewis wants. Tuivasa will have to be smart with his entries, land his strikes, then get out quickly. Hanging around in the pocket with Derrick Lewis is not a good idea, even for Tai. The more I write and think about this, I think what I'm getting at is the main key to this fight is that Tuivasa needs to keep things calm as long as possible. This is one thing that Chael gets 100% right. Tuivasa is not your traditional mixed martial artist, he's a cage fighter. The problem is, if he turns this into a cage fight, he's entering dangerous territory. I didn't think I would ever say this, but Tai will do his best the longer this fight stays a mixed martial arts contest. If Tuivasa can get off to a good start and land his kicks and some jabs, he'll have the momentum on his side and things will be going good for him. If the fight stays too close or Lewis is having more success, Tuivasa won't be able to fight his tendencies and he'll open things up. Once they start swinging in the pocket, it's a matter of who lands the first cleanest shot.
If it wasn't clear, these aren't super planned out, so let me summarize that. The key to this fight is who can dictate how the fight is taking place, which I separated into two parts. The first is who is going forward and who is going back. I think it is more important for Tuivasa to go forward because it allows him to more easily use his more diverse set of strikes. Lewis can go backwards for stretches and still be ok, as long as he goes forward in short bursts. The second part is what I'll call the order of the fight. The cleaner this fight looks, the more it will benefit Tuivasa. I actually think Tai is the better kick boxer and if it comes down to the ability to win rounds, his higher output rate will go a long way towards him winning 2 of 3. Its when this fight breaks down and turns into a brawl that all predictions go out the window. Both guys have massive power and if either connects flush, that's going to be the beginning of the end. The problem is that I don't know if Tuivasa can fight a clean, controlled fight for 15 minutes. Its in his DNA to create chaos and go for the knockout. Lewis does have a reach advantage, which means Tuivasa will have to close the distance. Doing so carefully will play a huge part in whether or not Tai has a chance. A second, minor key that I listed was the start. If Tuivasa has success early, he'll be more likely to keep at it. He can stick and move (as much as you can qualify anything he does as that) and land kicks from the outside. If he feels like he's falling behind, he'll be more likely to start a brawl. Once the wildness starts, I don't expect things to last long, but its going to be fun while its happening.
I can't wait for this fight. Tai Tuivasa and Derrick Lewis are both too much fun for this to be bad. I really don't think we'll get a repeat of Lewis vs Ngannou here. Tuivasa isn't the kind of guy to just sit back and potentially lose a decision. Someone is getting knocked out in this one and I don't really have a confident prediction in who it will be yet. What do you guys think? Can Tai Tuivasa continue his rise? Will Derrick Lewis continue to inch his way back towards another title opportunity? Who are you picking to win? What are some keys that I didn't talk about? Let me know in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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