Alright guys, buckle up because this is going to be a long one. I have a lot to say about this fight and honestly I feel like I'm about to promote this thing as much as the UFC has. The main event of UFC 271 is being way undersold to the point where I don't even know if people are aware that its happening. Both Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker are in my top 10 favorite fighters with Whittaker maybe being my number one favorite, so I'm biased, but this fight is going to be a good one. I think I'm going to talk about the individuals first before I talk about what has changed since their first fight because that is where I think so many people are missing the point.
In the blue corner, we have the former champion Robert Whittaker. He comes into this fight 23-5 overall with only one of those losses coming at middleweight. That loss of course was when Israel Adesanya defeated him in their title unification bout in October of 2019. His last loss prior to that was a knockout loss to Stephen Thompson in 2014. Whittaker won the interim championship in a fight against Yoel Romero in 2017. He would fight Romero again in what was supposed to be a defense, but Romero missed weight, rendering it a nontitle bout. The interim title was created after undisputed champion Michael Bisping underwent knee surgery. He came back and fought a returning Georges St. Pierre, who would successfully complete his quest for double champ status. GSP would retire and vacate his title a week after the victory and leave Whittaker to be elevated to undisputed champion. Whittaker's first defense of the undisputed title would be a title unification bout with another interim champion in Adesanya. Surgeries left Whittaker unable to defend his title for over a year between the second Romero fight and the Adesanya fight. I'll get a little more into the weeds of that fight later as it is a complicated situation. After the loss, Whittaker would decide to take some time away from the sport. In the midst of that break, the COVID-19 pandemic briefly shut the world down, so taking time off became a lot easier. He would return in July 2020 to start the run that has gotten him back to the rematch. He's 3-0 in that time and has wins over Darren Till, Jared Cannonier, and Kelvin Gastelum. In terms of his style, Whittaker is best known for his movement and kick boxing. His best attribute is his quickness both on his feet and with his strikes. He uses an in and out movement style that keeps his opponents guessing. He is able to enter, land his combinations, and exit before he takes any damage. He uses a diverse set of strikes to keep his opponents off balance during those combinations. He does have a sort of signature combination that he likes to mix in where he ends it with a right high kick that he has used to damage and finish several of his past victories. For a guy who is a little more on the muscular and bulky side, Whittaker's speed is his main advantage. At his best, he lands his shots and is out of range before his opponents can even react. When he's in his flow state, he moves so well that his opponents end up following him and walk right into his shots. Of course, to fight in this way, his cardio has to be top notch. Whittaker wouldn't be able to move like he does for a full 5 rounds otherwise. Despite the highlight from the first Adesanya fight that will be played over and over, Whittaker's chin has also largely been solid. He has only been knocked out twice and one of them came when he was killing himself to make welterweight. As for his weaknesses, Whittaker isn't much of a finisher. He relies more on the speed of his strikes and the volume with which he throws and lands them than power. His last wins by knockout came in consecutive fights against Derek Brunson and Jacare Souza in 2016 and 2017. Obviously, when you're not finishing fights, you have to fight the full duration, which in Whittaker's case has usually been 25 minutes. Being in the cage that long exposes you to potentially being finished yourself and also relies on the sometimes inconsistent judges. Another weakness of Whittaker's was his grappling. He has always had pretty good takedown defense and it shows with an 83% success rate. However, he was never able to do anything offensively and never really tried to. This is what made him such a bad matchup for Izzy. He was forced to rely on his stand up against one of the best stand up fighters to ever do it. What's interesting is that we've seen some growth from Whittaker in this department recently. He was able to land 4 takedowns in his last fight against Kelvin Gastelum. Gastelum is a pretty good wrestler too, so that really impressed me. Of course, Whittaker had the element of surprise in that fight as there's no way Gastelum would have ever predicted Whittaker would try to take him down. He won't be able to surprise Izzy this time as we've all seen it, but the skills are there. What was most impressive is that Whittaker was actually able to get top control time with Gastelum. The element of surprise helped in getting him down, but holding him down for a time was the real key. Even if Whittaker can get some takedowns against Izzy, if he can't do anything with them or Izzy gets right back up, there really wasn't any benefit. I think everyone has sort of forgotten how good Robert Whittaker is and he's going to remind us all on Saturday. Win or lose, I think this will be the toughest test Adesanya will have faced in quite some time.
Now is the champion, Israel Adesanya. Izzy made the transition from kick boxing to MMA maybe better than anyone else ever has. He's 21-1 in his career and the only loss came at a higher weight class. He's been fighting pretty good opponents basically his entire UFC career. After his debut, he fought Marvin Vettori for the first time. He went on to get wins over Brad Tavares, Derek Brunson, and Anderson Silva. All of this was happening simultaneously with everything I described with Bisping and GSP above. After all of that was settled, Whittaker would need surgery and that led to Izzy's toughest fight of his career against Kelvin Gastelum for the interim title. Izzy would get the win there and then unify the titles with a win over Whittaker. He would have 2 successful defenses against Yoel Romero and Paulo Costa before attempting to achieve double champ status. He would suffer his first career MMA loss to then champion Jan Blachowicz, but his return to middleweight would result in another successful defense of his title against Marvin Vettori. The style of Israel Adesanya is something I really can't explain as most of it is way over my head in terms of techniques. The only way I can really articulate it is similar to watching a prime Anderson Silva. It becomes very clear very quickly that he is just on a different level than his opponents during striking exchanges. Izzy is one of the only fighters where I watch them and I don't fully understand what he's doing. I know that he utilizes a lot of feints and he does so in a way that just freezes a lot of his opponents. He has incredible length for the division, which he uses to keep his opponents at range and pick them apart. His striking is just masterful in every sense. He can put it on opponents when he has to, but his ability to counter I think is what really makes him great. His length forces opponents to try and close the distance and he punishes whatever openings they leave. His strikes are so diverse in terms of both technique and target. He can throw punches or kicks to the legs, body, and head so effortlessly. With someone so gifted on the feet, it is imperative for him to keep it there. His takedown defense has improved significantly over the course of his career and he's now in a place where he is very hard to get down. He's right there with Whittaker now by percentage, at 80% success. Izzy's defense overall is really good. He doesn't get hit very much on the feet either. He doesn't keep his hands super high all the time, but relies on his quick reflexes to move his head and dodge punches. He moves well laterally as well and is able to slide out of the way of punches before delivering his counter shots. We haven't seen it tested very much, but his chin has always been able to hold up. He was hurt by Kelvin Gastelum, but he wasn't finished and went on to get the win in that fight. In terms of weaknesses, there really isn't much to go on. He doesn't have an offensive wrestling game, but he doesn't really need one. If there's one thing I could pick at, it might be his grappling from the bottom. He's showing evolution there, but he has a tendency to be controlled if someone can get him down. That is ultimately how Jan Blachowicz was able to defeat him. Of course, Jan used his noticeable size advantage there, but still. Izzy did show improvements in that area against Vettori and was able to actually find himself on top for a brief time in that fight. Even that is honestly knit picking. It's going to take an incredible effort for anyone to defeat him, but that's why we actually hold the events and don't just pick winners on paper.
Alright, this is where I want to get into some things about their first fight. We keep hearing from a lot of media members how Robert Whittaker is this significantly improved fighter. Izzy and his team keep saying this isn't true and that he's only sort of better. I think I agree with Izzy on this, but I feel like everyone is missing the point. Whether Whittaker is improved or not isn't really the most important thing. Instead of using the word improved, I think the phrase that actually matter is "better version" and the Robert Whittaker we will see Saturday is a much better version of himself than the one that fought Izzy the first time. There's a few things that go into this. Of course the improved wrestling is a big deal, but we'll get to that in the strategy and matchup portion. Robert Whittaker is much better version of himself this time around because he was a very poor version of himself the first time. First, that was his first fight after an extended layoff due to serious surgery. He pulled out of the Gastelum fight the day of the event for emergency surgery for a hernia and collapsed bowel. He came back and fought Izzy, but he clearly wasn't in his peak form for that fight. Secondarily, he has come out and said that he fought emotionally. He said Izzy had been getting to him and he just wanted to get to him. I do buy this, but only partially. I think the other half is that Whittaker was trying to replicated was Gastelum did to him. Gastelum was able to get in Izzy's face, take all of his punches, and land his own with power, while mixing in takedown attempts. While that is a great strategy to use against Adesanya, that isn't Robert's skillset. He needed to use elements of that, but still fight his own fight. He tried to replicate exactly what Gastelum did and it definitely didn't work. Whittaker isn't a guy that lunges in and throws wild punches, so when you see him doing that, something just isn't right. I think we're seeing a much healthier and more mature version of Robert Whittaker. He's much more content and confident in his own skills and will try to use elements that others have had success against Izzy with, while still being true to himself and his abilities.
Normally this is the part where I point out a few keys to the fight, but I'm going to do that a little differently this time. There's this narrative out there that Jan Blachowicz exposed Israel Adesanya and that he showed the blueprint to beating him. While I guess he did in a sense, he didn't really do anything that we didn't already know. Everyone knew that wrestling Izzy was the way to beat him, they just couldn't actually do it. Anyone saying that beating Izzy is as easy as taking him down and controlling him isn't telling us something that Marvin Vettori didn't know when they fought in Izzy's second UFC appearance. The problem is that taking him down and controlling him is much easier said than done, especially when Whittaker won't have the size advantage that Blachowicz did. However, there was something that Blachowicz did that Whittaker can try to learn from a bit. Of course Jan was able to get the late takedowns and secure the victory, but where he really won was by not getting picked apart on the feet early. He did this by being patient and not forcing exchanges. He didn't rush Izzy and try to connect with his power. Rather, he opted to stay calm and wait for his chances to land those big power shots. Izzy respected that power and was careful to not expose himself. This led to a very slow paced fight and one where just a few strikes could make the difference. All of that is great, but Whittaker doesn't have that kind of power and will be at a noticeable reach disadvantage. He can't replicate it exactly the way Jan did, but he can try to get that same result. With such a huge reach advantage, Izzy knows Rob will have to close that distance. He's going to be waiting for that and looking to counter. A big key for Whittaker will be using feints to try and get Adesanya to commit. If he can get Izzy off balance trying to counter, he might be able to do some damage of his own. This is way easier for me to say than to actually execute, but that is one way to try and force some respect and slow everything down. Another thing Whittaker can do is try to extend his combinations more than he usually does. Adesanya's striking defense relies on a lot of movement and reflexes over blocking or shelling up. When Izzy is sliding back or ducking shots, if Whittaker can force him onto the cage, he might have some openings. If he takes his normal 3 strike combinations and makes them 4 or 5, he may catch Izzy guessing. We know Rob likes to use his high kicks, so if he can force him to potentially duck into one, that could be a huge moment in the fight. The obvious key is for Whittaker to threaten the takedown. It is a tall task for Whittaker to beat Adesanya 3 of 5 rounds in an all stand up fight. He's going to have to steal a round or 2 on the ground in this one. I think Izzy is too good defensively for him to end up being taken down over and over again for the entire fight, but Rob is going to have to land at least one takedown with some ground control in this fight. He also needs to keep the takedown a threat for the entire fight. If Izzy has to be worried about the takedown, then he may start to drop his hands and be open for strikes to land. If the takedowns fail and they become a nonfactor, Izzy will get into his flow state in the striking much more easily with no concerns about being taken down.
The keys for Adesanya will be to counter those of course, but he also needs to land his own offense. The biggest thing for Izzy will be to keep the fight standing. If Whittaker is taking him down and controlling him, that is going to be a serious problem. I have no reason to believe Izzy has submissions off his back, so he's going to need to stay up or get up off the bottom. He's defended takedowns well for awhile now and he needs to continue that. Once that is in order, I think a key for him offensively is to land some low kicks. Whittaker likes to move and jump in and out of range. If Izzy can damage the lead leg of Whittaker, that will limit that mobility and make him that much easier to hit. Adesanya's leg kicks have been a good weapon for him in the past and he's really utilizing them more and more. They basically won him both the Costa and Vettori fights. Costa was virtually unable to move until he just took a last gasp shot at crashing in and got himself finished. Vettori just ate a bunch of leg kicks between his failed takedown attempts and they were the most impactful strikes of the entire fight. He uses them early and often and will potentially set up for a question mark kick later in the fight. I expect he will at least try to do the same here. One final key for Adesanya comes defensively and that is to avoid the high kicks. Whittaker likes to throw kicks up top and Izzy needs to be prepared for them. If he forces this fight to stay standing, he's going to have the advantage. Whittaker's only hope at that point will be to out kick box Izzy, which is unlikely, or to catch him and knock him out. His best chance for that will come from his high kicks and he throws them fairly often. Izzy likes to move his head, duck, or lean back to avoid most strikes, but I would opt for a more standard block if I were him. There's no need to take that risk at this point. Other than that, he just needs to do what he does. Use his length to his advantage with jabs and front kicks to the body and then counter when Whittaker closes the distance.
The other two fights that I previewed for this card were kind of simple. This one, not as much. There's a lot of things to look for and I think that's typical for Izzy. He's such an advanced fighter that it will never boil down to 1 or 2 things for him. I'm sure he's going to pull out some things that are way too advanced for me to even begin to understand. I didn't get too much into his offensive game because he's just way too good for me to say what he should and shouldn't do. If I had to guess, he's going to be doing a lot of his typical attacks. Jabs, front kicks to the body, leg kicks, anything to keep Whittaker at a distance. He'll look for more damaging shots on the counters when Whittaker comes into range. Whittaker on the other hand can't be passive. He has to bring the fight to Izzy, but he can't be reckless like he was last time. He has to be in control and do everything with intent. I think he has to win at least 1 round with a takedown and ground control, maybe even 2 to have a realistic chance to win this one. I expect this fight to be a much better one than the first and Izzy's toughest test since the Gastelum fight. What do you guys think? Who do you like to win? Will this be closer than their first matchup? Can Whittaker get takedowns and make it interesting? Or will Izzy just overwhelm him on the feet? What are some of the keys you are looking for? Leave any and all thoughts in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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