While I've been complaining about the UFC's schedule the last few weeks, this is the positive that comes out of it. All of the off weeks have lead to pay per views in 2 of the last 3 cards. Now, that would probably be a bigger deal if the UFC was actually promoting any of these cards, but that's a different story for a different day. With UFC 271 slated for this Saturday, we're at the portion of the week where I start doing the in depth previews for the biggest fights on the card. The first preview this time around will be a middleweight bout between Jared Cannonier and Derek Brunson, which likely serves as the number on contender fight for that division. With the middleweight title being the main event, there's really not any secrets that the winner of this fight will have the best chance to get the next title shot should Adesanya retain his belt. If Robert Whittaker is able to get the jump on him, that will likely force us into an immediate trilogy and all other contenders will be forced to wait a little bit. With that said, let's start dissecting things.
Derek Brunson will be in the blue corner for this one, so we'll start with him. Its fitting that Brunson will be an underdog yet again, because that has really defined his latest run. Derek Brunson hasn't bee the favorite in a fight since his bout against Jacare Souza in 2018, where he closed as the favorite despite opening as the underdog. The last time he opened as the favorite was against Lyoto Machida in 2017. Despite being an underdog for this many fights in a row, he's currently on a 5 fight winning streak. Those wins have come against Elias Theodorou, Ian Heinisch, Edmen Shahbazyan, Kevin Holland, and Darren Till. Brunson is a long time UFC veteran and has plenty of high level opponents from his past runs including Anderson Silva, Israel Adesanya, Robert Whittaker, Uriah Hall, and Yoel Romero. Long time fans may remember the younger version of Brunson who used a style similar to that of a peak Tyron Woodley. He wasn't really ever the best striker in the world, but he was very powerful and would use those big power strikes to set up his takedown attempts. Brunson was able to get a fair amount of knockouts early in his career as opponents just couldn't absorb his power and this may have actually hurt Brunson for a time. There was a stretch when he may have fallen in love with his striking a little too much and it may have cost him a fight or two. This latest version of Derek Brunson has turned back the clock and is fully embracing his core skillset. If Brunson is going to win this fight, he's going to do so based on his wrestling. Not only is wrestling the strength of Brunson's game, it helps him avoid his weaknesses. To focus on his strengths for a moment, Brunson's wrestling has been excellent for awhile now, but especially recently. He's been getting takedowns much more easily and while that does depend on the opponent's defense, I'm going to give Brunson some degree of credit too. Historically, he hasn't landed his takedowns at a high percentage, but his latest run has seen him improve on that and I think that has a lot to do with his success. While Brunson has become very reliant on his grappling at this stage, he's not just a lay and pray fighter by any means. He's done a pretty good job of getting his opponents down and then actually damaging them. His ground and pound was on full display against Shahbazyan and he showed off his submission skills against Darren Till. I wouldn't go as far to call Brunson a finisher, especially this version of him, but he's not someone who can be taken lightly. As I hinted at before, the wrestling is important not only because it is his strength, but it also hides a lot of his weaknesses. A lot of Brunson's weaknesses are exposed in the stand up. Brunson has never been the most technical striker, but as the sport has evolved, he's fallen a little bit behind. With fighters being able to cut more and more weight due to the introduction of teams and techniques (compared to when Brunson first got into the fight game) his power doesn't quite play the way it used to. I'm sure his power has diminished some due to his age, but I think it has more to do with fighters being more powerful now than during his younger years. I would say his striking is more of a minor weakness. By that I mean that he won't often have the striking advantage, but unless he's fighting someone like Izzy, he's not going to be completely out classed either. The major issue for Brunson is his chin. Derek Brunson simply just isn't taking shots like he used to. 5 of his 7 career losses have come via knockout. Even in some of his recent wins, he finds himself being hurt on the feet before he gets the fight to the ground. Brunson needs to be very careful because I don't know how many, if any. clean shots he can take from Cannonier and continue. I think Brunson's cardio needs to be in top shape coming into this one. He's never been a cardio monster, but he typically doesn't have it fail him either. Brunson is going to have to wrestle non stop in this one and he needs to have the cardio to do so. Derek Brunson doesn't win pretty these days, but he still wins. He's going to have to make this a gritty and dirty fight in the grappling and consistently land his takedowns. At this point, I refuse to rule Derek Brunson out of a fight because no matter how badly he's supposed to lose, he's found a way.
The red corner will feature Jared Cannonier, who has had quite the MMA journey. He entered the UFC as a heavyweight, had a brief run as a light heavyweight, and is now one win away from a title shot at middleweight. He's 4-1 at middleweight with his only loss coming to Robert Whittaker. The wins have come against David Branch, Anderson Silva, Jack Hermansson, and Kelvin Gastelum. Cannonier's offensive game is pretty straight forward. He wants to keep the fight standing and strike with power. He's not an amazing, next level kick boxer, but the power in all of his strikes is what separates him from the pack. He's technically proficient in all that he does and opts for more standard techniques than anything flashy. He throws a lot of straight punches and mixes in kicks, mostly to the legs. I don't know that his leg kicks will be as important of a component of this fight because kicks will give Brunson an opportunity to land takedowns more easily. I don't think there's a better way to complement Cannonier's power than saying he was able to get a TKO against Jack Hermansson and dropped Kelvin Gastelum. To hurt either of those guys with strikes says more than any words I could come up with. His chin has also been good, especially since moving weight classes. He's been knocked out twice, but both were up weight classes. He was knocked out by Shawn Jordan at heavyweight in 2015 and Dominick Reyes at 205 lbs in 2018. The main weakness that Cannonier should be concerned about is his grappling. He definitely won't be looking for any of his own takedowns in this one, but he's going to need to keep it standing. By percentage, Cannonier has just ok takedown defense, but it has been much better since moving to middleweight. With Cannonier being at his proper weight now, he isn't being over powered and controlled in grappling exchanges the way he may have been vulnerable to in the past. Derek Brunson isn't just a run of the mill wrestler, but Cannonier's last fight against Gastelum was really telling. Cannonier was able to defend all of Gastelum's takedowns and if he can stuff all of those, I think he's in a good spot heading into this one. In a similar fashion as Brunson, Cannonier's cardio isn't anything crazy or astounding. He's not someone who's a pure sprinter, but he isn't the type of fighter who can weaponize his cardio either. Cannonier doesn't bring anything especially dynamic to the cage, but he brings massive power and with solid technique, he's able to get a lot of wins. He's the favorite coming into this one and I think that sounds about right given his last performance.
So, with all that said, we need to apply it to this matchup. The first and biggest key to this fight is Brunson's ability to land takedowns. If Brunson is able to consistently get to his takedowns and control Cannonier then he has a clear path to victory. On the other hand, if Cannonier forces things into a stand up battle, he has the clear advantage. I don't see this fight being particularly close, regardless of who wins. Either Cannonier will get taken down over and over again or Brunson will get hit with a shot he can't stand up to and that will be it. Normally I leave it at that, but I think that is such a clear key that I want to try and get a little more into things, even with my limited knowledge of fight techniques. Personally, I think the pressure is on Brunson for this one. He has to be very careful with how he approaches things because if he gets reckless, he could get knocked out very easily. He can't stay at range for too long because that doesn't favor him at all, but if he just rushes in, he can get caught. He has to close the distance carefully and get into the clinch and start chaining his takedown attempts together. One potential opening would be if Cannonier does decide to use the kicks. If Brunson can catch a kick, that would be a golden opportunity to get Cannonier down. We saw Francis Ngannou catch a kick from Ciryl Gane and that led to the series of takedowns later in the fight. Brunson may be able to capitalize on a similar opportunity if it arises. This isn't to say that Cannonier will just be able to back his way into a victory though. Keeping the fight at range will benefit him as he's both the more powerful and more technical striker. If he turns this into a pure kick boxing match, it will be his fight to lose. With that said, he can't just stand there and look for the perfect shot either. If he doesn't keep his activity levels high enough, he could find himself clinched against the side of the cage for long stretches. While the damage wouldn't be high, he could find himself in the same type of fight that Puna Soriano was in with Nick Maximov if he doesn't keep his activity levels high enough. Cannonier typically isn't a wild striker, so I don't think that's something that he'll have to worry about, but if the moment gets to him and he starts winging shots, he could over extend and get himself taken down. Pacing shouldn't be an issue as both men typically like a slower paced fight, so they'll be looking to do a similar thing in that regard. I don't think there's really anything else I need to say about this fight. Of course there's little things, but that's really the key. If Cannonier's takedown defense isn't ready to go, he may be in for a long night. If Brunson can't get the fight down, he's going to be at a noticeable disadvantage. Some fights are very complex, some are a little more straight forward. This one is a little more on the straight forward side.
What do you guys think? Who do you like to come out with the win? Can Derek Brunson cash as an underdog again and wrestle his way to a potential title shot? Or is Jared Cannonier going to use his powerful striking to end the night early? Leave your thoughts in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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