Finally, we're back to some normal programming on this site. As fun as it can be to write about random things and being creative, its hard to be creative when your hand is being forced. Whoever made this schedule for the UFC needs to reconsider because it is not working at all for me. I get the holiday break, that's fine, but the momentum has been so choppy. The run that the UFC ended the year on was crazy. It started with UFC 267 on October 30 with Yan vs Sandhagen and Teixeira vs Blachowicz then followed up with UFC 268 with Rose vs Weili II and Usman vs Covington II. Holloway vs Rodriguez was after that. The following week was Vieira vs Tate, which wasn't great, but then was Font/Aldo, that led right into Oliveira vs Poirier, which was outstanding. The final card of the year was Lewis vs Daukaus, which was really fun. They took 3 weeks off around Christmas and New Years and then came back with a really underwhelming card both on paper and in reality that got saved by the main event of Giga vs Kattar. Then was UFC 270, which was an equally underwhelming card with 2 great title fights tacked onto the end. They follow that up with another week off before coming back this week with Hermansson vs Strickland. This card actually does have more than a couple fights or fighters that I want to see, but I think for some general fans, the main event may not seem as intriguing. I'm writing this on the day it comes out and we've seen at least 3 and I don't feel like going through every card, but I'll give a buffer of at most 5 good fights since December 19 and its February 4. They have to do something about that next year because all of the momentum they had was just crushed.
With all of that said, we do have a really interesting main event this week that I'm going to preview. The middleweight division is in a bit of weird spot because Israel Adesanya has beaten a lot of the top contenders already, so this probably is a lot more meaningful than it may seem on the surface. Next week's Cannonier vs Brunson fight likely serves as the number one contender fight, especially if Cannonier gets the win, but if Brunson pulls off another upset, I don't think its a foregone conclusion that he gets the rematch. Neither Hermansson or Strickland carry the big name value, but I think they're a tough matchup for each other and I'm really interested to see how this plays out.
Sean Strickland is the lesser known of the two and I contribute a lot of that to his missed time. He missed 2 years of his career from 2018-2020 due to a motorcycle accident that almost really derailed things for him. Luckily, he was able to return and he's looked great in that time. He's won all 4 of his fights since coming back against Jack Marshman, Brendan Allen, Krzysztof Jotko, and Uriah Hall. The win over Hall marked a significant step up in competition for him and he looked great. Fortunately, I think the stylistic matchup in that fight really played into Sean's hands and he took advantage of it in a noticeable way. I guess I'm already getting into his style and that is a primarily boxing heavy approach. Strickland is going to throw punches and he's going to throw a lot of them. His willingness to throw combinations at an incredibly high rate isn't a particularly complex style to figure out or anything crazy to watch, but that doesn't make it any less effective. Often times, the simplest strategies are the most effective and that's clearly been the case with Sean Strickland. He's never used a ton of offensive grappling or wrestling and was using even less until the Hall fight. He was able to get 4 takedowns against Uriah Hall, but I don't expect that to be a part of Sean's strategy this weekend. Sean isn't the best offensive wrestler, but he does wrestle defensively very well and I think that will be a huge key for him in this one. He has to stay off the bottom against Hermansson or things could go very poorly for him and, at least so far, he's proven his ability to do just that. Sean doesn't wrestle and he also doesn't throw all that man kicks, so he'll be looking to box his way to a win in all likelihood with volume more specifically. I always say, "well _____ isn't the greatest fighter of all time, so let's get into his weaknesses" and we'll do the same here. One potential weakness is that Sean doesn't have a ton of ways to finish fights. He isn't really looking to get the fight to the ground and submit someone. His last submission was in his UFC debut back in 2014, so don't expect any of that Saturday. Sean also isn't an incredibly diverse striker, so he's not likely to catch someone with a kick or a knee that they never saw coming or anything like that. Sean also doesn't have a ton of raw power on his punches, which isn't a necessity, it just means he goes to a lot of decisions, which exposes him to additional cage time and allows for the potential that he is finished himself. The only other real weakness that we've seen is that he's just generally not an extremely diverse fighter. He's not typically look to grapple or throw kicks form the outside. He's looking to box and he's willing to stand and really fight all night long. I don't know why I always forget to bring it up until the end, but I have to go back to strengths for a second. Sean's striking defense is really good. Volume strikers are usually susceptible to being hit at times, but I think Sean limits his damage really well when he wants to. Sometimes he finds himself being too into the fight and is willing to stand and trade, but his chin has almost always held up. He's only been finished once and that came off of a spinning wheel kick. Sean is also in tremendous shape and will hold up cardio wise as well. He's not particularly flashy with his techniques, but he's an extremely tough guy who's going to be hard to beat. You're likely not going to be able to finish him and he's going to be in his opponents face throwing volume strikes for all 25 minutes. That's not an easy style to be able to deal with, even with an elite skillset.
As for Hermansson, he's a little more of a known commodity and probably the more recognizable name of the two. He's been a little more up and down of late, alternating wins and losses over his last 5. Those wins have come against Jacare Souza, Kelvin Gastelum, and Edmen Shahbazyan. The losses came against Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier. Hermansson feels more of a sure thing because we have seen him against really high level competition for a few years in a row now. In terms of skills, Hermansson comes into this fight a little more well rounded than Strickland. His striking isn't quite as polished, but he throws with power and intent with a good overall pace and output. He's similar to Strickland in that he relies mostly on his hands as a striker and doesn't rely go to any of the flashier techniques or even some more basic kicks nearly as often as a lot of other fighters. What Hermansson does bring is more of a willingness to grapple and a dangerous submission game. If Hermansson is going to win this fight, he's going to need to win a round or two on the ground. If someone from the future told me that this fight ends via finish, my guess would be that it comes from Hermansson via submission, so he has that advantage coming in. He won't throw with as much volume as Strickland, but I think he has the power advantage, so he has an opening if he can hurt him with a right hand. A lot of the other stuff is very similar to Strickland. They're both in great shape and can fight all night if they had to. They're as tough as they come and won't quit on themselves regardless of the situation. Their chins can hold up and neither will be afraid to trade shots if that's what it comes down to. That's why I'm really looking forward to this fight so much. It's so evenly matched that it could really go either way.
The part of these posts that I've really come to enjoy is trying to determine a few keys to the fight and how the opponents can use their skills against each other specifically. It's great to recognize the skills that they have, but how they come into play in this specific matchup is really what matters. My first key is almost always the same and that is dictating the pace and style of fight. This time though, its a little less obvious as to how that works. A lot of times, there's a fighter who wants to strike and another who wants to grapple and whoever can force the fight to take place where they want it is going to have the upper hand. In this fight, Hermansson and Strickland have a lot of similarities and will be trying to do a lot of the same things most of the time. Both fighters are comfortable pushing a high pace, so we won't see one of them trying to tire the other out, while one fighter tries to slow the fight down. In this case, I think dictating the style will be less important than it may have been in other matchups like Gane vs Ngannou or Moreno vs Figueiredo. Sean Strickland needs to keep this fight standing. I may have downplayed his offensive wrestling someone, but it's not completely nonexistent, he just doesn't go to it and I think it is generally better for him to stay standing. Hermansson on the other hand, would really benefit from this fight going to the ground. While he's dangerous and powerful on the fight, I don't think his striking is as proficient as Strickland's. I think he's more than capable of handling himself there for stretches and potentially even entire rounds. However, I don't think a 5 round fight that is all stand up will favor Hermansson. At the very least, he needs to continue to mix things up. Some striking, clinch work, and hopefully for him, a few takedowns. I think he's going to need to win at least a round, maybe 2, by controlling Strickland for a good chunk of it, whether that's on the mat or with Strickland pressed up against the cage. Hermansson does have an advantage in power, but it's not by a lot and Strickland's chin is good enough that I don't think he'll be able to really damage him unless he really catches him off guard with something. I think Strickland needs to come into this fight and just continue to do what he does well. He has great takedown defense and great volume striking. As long as he can keep this a striking battle, he'll have a clear path to victory. One thing to watch for though is that Hermansson is pretty clearly the best fighter Strickland has ever been in there with, maybe other than a much younger Kamaru Usman, but that was pre-accident Sean. Hermansson won't fold under Sean's constant pressure, so he has to be ready to bring that all night, which I'm sure he is. Another key that is related to this is the level of Sean Strickland's BJJ game. We haven't seen Sean Strickland fight off his back very much in general and even when he did, it was more than awhile ago. If Hermansson can get Strickland down, that's when things can become very dangerous for him. We've seen Jack get his fair share of submission victories and if Sean isn't ready to defend those positions and get back to his feet, he could be in trouble. I have to assume he's been training those positions, its really just a matter of how much better is Hermansson down there. If Sean closed the gap enough to where he can keep himself safe on the ground and survive until the next round, then he may be ok. If Hermansson is too advanced and is always a step ahead, that could be the beginning of the end. To take this one step farther, my gut tells me that Hermansson will have a slight size advantage. They're both 6'1 and obviously come in at the same weight, but I think Hermansson may be a little bulkier and may have a slight strength advantage. There is a possibility that he can just over power Strickland, but I don't really see that happening. Where it would help more is once they actually get to the ground and Hermansson can use that size to hold Strickland in place. Normally when these men fight, I feel like they have that extra edge and grit where they can out will their opponents late in close fights, but in this matchup, that won't happen. The toughness and willingness to really fight and not just have this be a mixed martial arts contest is what has me so excited. I think those are really it for my main keys in this one. Can Sean keep is standing? If not, how does he do off his back with getting back up and defending submissions? And how much does size play a role in the clinch, takedowns, and top control?
My picks for the entire card will be out tomorrow sometime before the event starts. Keep an eye out for those. I usually tweet the post before I go to Instagram, but they usually get posted one right after the other. Saturday's are the one exception because for Instagram I wait for the UFC graphic so I can circle my picks on there. Anyways, what do you guys think? Who do you like in this one? Will Strickland stay hot? Or will Hermansson find another submission victory? What keys are you watching for tomorrow? Let me know in the comments and enjoy the fights. Leave your thoughts below, thanks for reading, have a good one.
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