We've finally made it to the main event of UFC 272. It's been a long week of previews and I'm honestly just ready to make my picks and then watch it all unfold. Apparently it has become really popular to hate on this card and I don't really understand why. I mean, I know it isn't the best pay per view card of all time, but it honestly isn't as bad as some people seem to be suggesting. Maybe it is just my lizard brain talking, but a grudge match between 2 top 6 fighters is enough to get me interested. I don't need every single fight to have these massive title implications for me to be interested. Look, us MMA fans are simple people. We like to watch one fighter punch another fighter in the face until one of them gives up or can't physically continue. When each of those fighters has a genuine hatred for the other and vice versa, I really don't need someone to sell me anything more than that, especially when both fighters are at the very top of the division. Jorge Masvidal vs Colby Covington has very little to do with the welterweight title picture unless Kamaru Usman leaves the division and I really don't care about that. Obviously, if you don't want to pay for it, then no one is making you, but I think it is plenty interesting enough and I am personally looking forward to it.
The blue corner will feature one Jorge "Gamebred" Masvidal. Regardless of your level of fandom, you're probably very familiar with who Jorge Masvidal is. I do think that some newer fans don't realize that the version of Jorge that we see today isn't who he was for a vast majority of his career. Masvidal got his start fighting in the streets, but even after he transitioned to the ranks of the professionals, he struggled to find his footing. He made his professional debut all the way back in 2003 and has appeared in several well known promotions and has fought so many recognizable names throughout his career. A fun piece of trivia is that Masvidal was actually in the main event for the first ever Bellator card in 2009. Tomorrow will be his 51st professional bout and he comes in with a record of 35-15. He's had a lot more success than failure, but for a long time he struggled to really gain any momentum. He would win a couple then lose a couple then alternate wins and losses and repeat. He also found himself on the wrong end of split decisions so frequently that it almost doesn't seem real when you go down his record and see so many of them. His first real run in the UFC saw him win 3 in a row before losing to Al Iaquinta and then moving up to welterweight. He went on another 3 fight win streak that included a win over Donald Cerrone, but he would then drop 2 in a row to Damien Maia and Stephen Thompson. After these losses, Masvidal would take off the entire year of 2018. Upon his return, we saw the beginnings of the Jorge that we know today. He started off his run with a brutal second round knockout of Darren Till in the second round of their main event fight. He would then register his signature 5 second knockout over Ben Askren that elevated him even higher. His next fight was is BMF title win over Nate Diaz that put Masvidal as over as he could be. He would then swoop in on a weeks notice to fight Kamaru Usman for the title after Gilbert Burns tested positive for COVID during fight week. He would get his rematch, but was finished in the second round of that fight and we haven't seen him since. He was booked to fight Leon Edwards in the latter part of 2021, but he was forced to withdraw from that fight due to injury. Stylistically, Masvidal does his best work in the stand up. He uses a very slick striking style that allows him to land his own shots, with both speed and power, but also avoid getting hit. When you look at Jorge Masvidal, he doesn't leap off the screen as being an incredible physical specimen, but everything he does in the striking realm suggests otherwise. He is both fast and powerful in a way that is very difficult to deal with when Masvidal is at his best. He is a way more technical striker than most people give him credit for. Masvidal likes to play his "street fighter" character and while he does show elements of that at times, he's a way more refined fighter than that. His striking defense is some of the best in the division, which is why his knockout loss to Usman was so impressive. Masvidal isn't as poor in the grappling department as some may lead you to believe either. He was controlled by Usman in the first fight, but he still wasn't taken down a ton. He was controlled along the fence and didn't have the cardio to do much about it due to the short notice nature of the fight. His takedown defense is historically pretty good at 75%. He did get taken down by Usman in the second fight, but Kamaru Usman is one of the best wrestlers in the division, so there's no shame in that. Of course, Colby is also an extremely high level wrestler, but I think Masvidal is good enough to stuff some of the shots and work his way up when he does get taken down. Whether it will be enough to win the fight remains to be seen, but he's not going to get drowned either. His cardio has always been in a decent spot, but never enough to be able to really put a pace on guys that they couldn't keep up with. Masvidal hasn't gotten hit a ton, but his chin was always solid until Usman knocked him out last time. We will see how he bounces back from that and if it has any effect on his chin strength going forward or if he ends up being more cautious because of it. It makes sense that Masvidal is the underdog here, but I think the odds are getting a little too big. He's not going to get run over by Colby and I could easily see him pulling off the win.
Colby Covington has reached an odd point in his career. He's in a similar situation to Max Holloway and Robert Whittaker now that he's had 2 unsuccessful attempts to unseat the champion. Things get weird because even though all of those guys have lost to a dominant champion twice, they are still so clearly the next best fighter in the weight class. Colby Covington comes into this fight 16-3 overall, but having lost 2 of his last 3. Of course, both of those losses are to Kamaru Usman, so those come with a caveat. His only other loss came via submission to Warlley Alves in December of 2015. His last 4 wins are when he started to really rise to that next level. Those wins came against Damien Maia, the interim title fight against Rafael Dos Anjos, Robbie Lawler, and Tyron Woodley. Stylistically, Colby is an extremely hard guy to deal with. Offensively, he wants to use his high level wrestling background and get the fight to the ground. From there, he can and will top control his way to wins with a good mix of positional dominance and ground and pound. Colby doesn't really have the submission game to finish a ton of the high level opponents that he faces, but if the opportunity presents itself, I wouldn't doubt that he could capitalize on it. He's the more well rounded of the two as I think his striking is better than Masvidal's wrestling. Now, Colby's striking isn't exactly beautiful to watch from a technical perspective, but it doesn't make it any less effective. He doesn't have the same hand speed or power as Masvidal either, but he hasn't really needed either to this point. Colby throws long combinations and a lot of them and that is what makes his strikes effective. He throws so many shots in terms of volume and if his opponent can't keep up with him, he's just going to overwhelm them with the sheer amount of strikes he's throwing. The key to all of this and Covington's best attribute is his cardio. He's on the short list of fighters like Max Holloway and Alex Volkanovski who can win fights based on their pace alone. Colby's willingness and ability to both strike and wrestle for the full 25 minutes with no breaks is a problem for most guys. They simply just can't keep up with him and after they get tired, Colby can just start to pour it on. It isn't the most glamorous style and doesn't come with an awesome highlight tape, but there's a reason that he's only lost 3 times in his career. Being in such great condition contributes to his chin largely holding up. He was hurt and finished by Usman in the last minute of their first fight and was also dropped in the second fight, but that's really about it. I don't want to short change Colby by making his section so much shorter, but I feel like there's not much more to say about his style. He just grinds his opponents until they don't have the energy to continue and then he just pulls away in dominant fashion. Colby is rightfully the favorite and when he's at his best, he's a real problem for anyone in the division and probably at 185 lbs too.
So what are some things to look for? Well, obviously, if Colby is getting his takedowns over and over again, then this fight may look pretty one sided. Masvidal needs to have his takedown defense and get up strategies ready to go. If those techniques aren't up to par, it will be a really long night for him. As obvious as it may sound, Masvidal needs to keep it standing, but how does he do that? I'm not going to get into takedown defense techniques, but I think everyone knows that Masvidal will need to be going forward to limit the wrestling as much as possible. If this turns into a kick boxing match, then he has a chance. The issue will be Colby's cardio. Masvidal needed to have his cardio the best it has ever been for this fight. He will have the capability to go forward early on, but if he can't maintain that, then Colby will put him on the back foot late and start to take over. In simple terms, Masvidal needs to stop the takedowns and try to limit the pace as much as he can or at least keep it reasonable. That's a lot easier said than done, but if he can, then he will have a striking advantage. Kamaru Usman is much more powerful and explosive of an athlete than Masvidal, but if Usman can find Covington's chin, then Masvidal certainly can as well. For Colby, I think he needs to take his usual approach to things. Push the pace early and keep mixing it up between the striking and wrestling. The more he can wrestle, the better in this case as putting Masvidal on his back will limit the risk for Colby exponentially. I think he does need to be a bit more measured on the feet than he usually is though. They call him "Chaos" for a reason. He likes to turn the striking battles into a more frantic exchange rather than a cleaner style of fight and while that usually works out for him, he has to harness a little of the recklessness this time. He will be at a disadvantage in terms of strike speed that wasn't there or as noticeable against Woodley, Usman and even some others. If Colby comes forward and leaves too many openings or telegraphs his shots, he is going to get countered. He thrives in the chaotic nature of a fire fight, but I think that will also put him in the most danger in this matchup. He needs to put the pressure on, but he needs to remain in control and think about what he's doing when he throws his combinations. There is sort of this weird dynamic where if the fight looks too clean, the Masvidal has the advantage, but at the same time, if there's too much chaos, Masvidal may also have the advantage. There is this middle ground of controlled aggression that, if Colby can find, he is almost unbeatable. Speaking of chaos, this section has been a little disjointed, but I'll summarize things tighter at the end.
The real wildcard in this scenario is all of the emotional drama. This is a very intense and heated scenario that has the capability to have this fight divulge into chaos very quickly. Whichever fighter can maintain some level of calm and control will have a huge advantage. If the moment gets to one of them, they could have an adrenaline dump and then be gassed out for the remainder of the fight. If anyone has the advantage here, it would have to be Jorge right? He has way more experience in terms of fights in general and in heated matchups. Both men have 2 with Usman that got emotional in the lead up at times, but Masvidal went through all of this once before with the lead up to the Ben Askren fight. If either guy succumbs to the energy or pressure of the arena, they can over extend themselves and end up in a very bad spot. If Masvidal tries to throw something crazy, he could create and opening and end up getting taken down. If Colby gets goaded into a striking battle because he just wants to hurt Masvidal instead of just trying to win a fight, he is putting himself at risk.
So let's kind of reign this in a little bit. I think the keys for Masvidal are to stop the takedowns and keep Colby at distance as much as he can. The cleaner the striking looks, the better things will look for Masvidal. He's the faster, more powerful, and more technical striker of the two. He needs to make sure those are the skills being tested for the majority of the fight if he wants to get his hand raised. I think using his kicks would be a good idea to try and keep Colby on the outside, but he can't throw them blind or Covington will use them as an opening to get takedowns. It isn't really a key right at this moment, but Jorge also needed to make sure he was in the best shape of his career for this one, otherwise Colby's cardio will be able to grind him to exhaustion in the late rounds. Keeping the fight at a distance will also help to try and slow the pace a bit. Colby needs to mostly do what he does. He needs to push the pace and look to wrestle. He may not get the first takedown and may not get them early, but he can't give up on them. In whatever way he can, he needs this to be a dirty and gritty fight. He doesn't have a ton of the athletic and explosive advantages, so the cleaner this fight looks, the worse it is for him. He needs to clinch and create controlled chaos where his volume striking can take over. He can't cross the line into reckless though because he will leave himself open for counters. He needs to test Jorge's cardio and try to push this as hard as he can for as long as he can because most fighters won't be able to keep up to Colby's pace. The final key is for both men and that is to harness the energy in the arena. Use the energy from the fans to your advantage, but don't let the nerves throw you off your game plan.
I think that is finally it from me. What do you guys think? Who do you like to get the win? Can Jorge Masvidal force the striking battle and pick Colby apart? Can Colby wrestle his way to a win? Will either be able to find the finish? Leave any and all thoughts below. Leave your predictions for the fight as well. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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