For the first time since the last PPV, we have an entire UFC card to be excited about instead of just an isolated fight here and there. That is very evident when I am writing a preview for a fight on the prelims, which I don't think I have ever done before. However, when a number one contender fight ends up on the prelims, then I guess my hands are tied. While we haven't heard anything at all about Rose Namajunas's next title defense, it seems like it is going to be Carla Esparza, as it should be. This fight likely sets up the next challenger.
Marina Rodriguez has gotten a significant push from the UFC over the last year and rightfully so. She's won 3 in a row and 2 of those have come in main events, which are still a bit of a rarity for women's MMA. Prior to that she suffered her only career loss to none other than Carla Esparza. Those 3 wins came against highly rated prospect Amanda Ribas, well respected veteran Michelle Waterson, and fan favorite BJJ ace Mackenzie Dern. Those are about as high of quality wins as someone can get in this division without breaking into the top 3 (before Joanna Jedrzejczyk was removed from the rankings). Rodriguez relies on her striking and she is as good a kickboxer as exists in this division. Her combinations are both quick and powerful in a way that most women haven't been able to solve. She's very active in her striking and pairs it with pretty solid striking defense. She does a good job of mixing in her kicks, but her boxing combinations are where she makes her money. Strawweight isn't really known for strikers who display a ton of power, but the pop on Rodriguez's shots in the Ribas fight really stood out to me. Of course, striking is only half of the game in MMA and the grappling aspect is clearly Rodriguez's weak point. Both her ground game and her takedown defense need work. She's shown some growth as she had a solid showing against Dern in that aspect. She survived a ground exchange with as dangerous a submission artist as women's MMA has and was able to stuff a fair amount of takedowns. She still only has 66% takedown defense, which while not horrible, shows room for improvement. Fortunately for her, Xiaonan isn't much of a wrestler either, so she probably won't have to worry about it as much as she will against future opponents including Rose Namajunas, Zhang Weili, and a potential rematch with Carla Esparza.
On the other side of the cage, we have Yan Xianonan. While her name may not be as well known right now, she's a really high level fighter. I talked the other day about how the UFC is failing with both their scheduling and promoting and this is a perfect example. A number one contender fight for one of their most popular champions in Rose Namajunas is being hidden on the prelims in favor of unranked Greg Hardy vs Serghei Spivac and last week's co-main event was Misha Cirkunov vs Wellington Turman...I don't get it. On top of all of that, no one is talking about this fight even a little bit, which is equal parts a shame and negligent on the part of the promotion. It really wouldn't surprise me if this ended up being the fight of the night. Xiaonan started her UFC career 6-0 before losing her last fight to Carla Esparza. Her previous 3 wins had come against Angela Hill, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, and Claudia Gadelha, which is a pretty nice stretch for her. Unfortunately for Xiaonan, she is also a striker, meaning that she's going to have to go strength for strength with Rodriguez. Xiaonan goes about her striking a little bit differently in that she throws with more volume. She doesn't have the same power that Rodriguez has, but she is going to throw more strikes, while absorbing more as well. Her grappling statistics are a little bit better as well, so it will be interesting to see if that is something that she attempts to use. She lands takedowns a little more often and at a better percentage, but not by enough for it to be viewed as a major threat if she hasn't improved in those areas since her last fight. It is worth noting that both of Xiaonan's career losses have come by finish, once by submission and the other by TKO, both on the ground of course. With that said, I still wouldn't consider her chin a weakness, but it is something to potentially keep an eye on once the damage starts to pile up over the course of the fight. Everything else I have to say is probably better suited for the actual matchup breakdown, so let's get into that.
This will in all likelihood be a stand up battle from start to finish. In my estimation, Marina Rodriguez has the speed, power, and technical striking advantages paired with a small 2 inch reach advantage. If she is able to keep this fight at boxing range, I think she will be the one who gets their hand raised in this one. She's also pretty good with clinch knees, so that is another thing Xiaonan has to look out for. However, it isn't like Xiaonan is hopeless. She has a lot of skills herself and can do some things to impose them and try to get the win. It won't be easy because a lot of what she does well will be masked by what Rodriguez does well, but she still has a chance. If she does get the win, it will likely have to come by decision, so she has to keep that in mind. The biggest key for her will be to throw her strikes in bunches and as frequently as possible. Without the speed or power advantage, she's not going to be able to rely on pure damage in terms of a strike for strike comparison. She probably won't be able to just sit back and counter strike either. I think it will be key for her to lead the dance and land her strikes. You'll hear on the broadcast sometimes and from a lot of coaches that a fighter needs to be first in the exchange and also be last. I think that is what Xiaonan will have to do in this one. I don't know if will be enough to make a real dent, but it would be wise to try and push the pace. Rodriguez will also probably be the larger fighter, so Xiaonan may have a cardio advantage. The problem is I don't know if it is enough of an advantage to really make a huge difference. The other thing that I would really like to see Xiaonan do is the try and mix things up. I said that her offensive takedown game doesn't have much to it, but I think it would have been smart to try and add some of that before this fight. Even if she doesn't land any takedowns, to at least be able to threaten a takedown would be big for her. If she's able to keep Rodriguez off balance even a little bit, that could give her some more openings to take advantage of. If she plans on just standing and having a technical striking battle with Rodriguez, I don't think that will favor her. She's just at a disadvantage in too many key attributes. She has to utilize her volume striking, while not staying in the pocket long enough to take Rodriguez's strikes. She doesn't have much margin for error in a lot of the exchanges, but she's way too good to be ruled out.
What do you guys think? Is this fight flying too far under the radar? Who do you like in this fight? Does Rodriguez have the clear advantage? What does Yan Xiaonan have to do in order to give herself a chance? Leave any and all thoughts below. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
UPDATE:
I just noticed this, but the UFC stats page spells Serghei Spivac's last name "Spivac" and ESPN spells it the same, which is why I spelled it that way in the post. However, everywhere else spells it Spivak, so, I'm not really sure. Just an interesting thing. If anyone knows why that would be the case and which is actually correct then let me know.
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