It's another week and we have another Fight Night card in front of a live crowd. It seems unlikely that it will live up to what London brought, but even a fraction of that energy and excitement will be one of the better cards of the year. This card was originally supposed to have Jan Blachowicz in the main event against Aleksandar Rakic in what was a clear number one contender bout for the light heavyweight title, but Blachowicz was forced to pull out after suffering an injury. Instead of finding a replacement, the UFC opted to pull Rakic altogether and we assume that fight is being rebooked at some point. It was replaced with Curtis Blaydes vs Chris Daukaus and that is a fine main event in my eyes. It really is a similar situation to Aspinall vs Volkov in some ways. The third fight of the night is a pretty big one and that is Askar Askarov vs Kai Kara-France. Why this isn't the co-main event, I'll never know, but I guess Alexa Grasso vs Joanne Wood is more important. I get that men's flyweight isn't the deepest or most popular division in the world, but this is as clear of a number one contender fight as can be made in the sport right now. It seems to be trending towards a fourth fight between Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno for the championship and I have mixed feelings on doing all four fights in a row, but I'm not going to complain about seeing those guys fight again because it is basically a guaranteed classic. However, I think everything is setting up for the winner of Saturday's fight to be the next challenger for the title. Whoever wins will basically have no one else to go through in order to get the title shot and at some point, someone new is going to have to get a chance.
I believe Kai Kara-France will be in the blue corner, so we'll start with him. Kara-France is a bit of an interesting case because his overall career record isn't as spotless as you expect from someone at the top of the division and he's had a bit of a reverse career arc. Normally, when someone turns pro, they are set up with fights they can win early, have a nice start before starting to lose some fights once they get to better organizations and face tougher competition. However, Kai is much the opposite for whatever reason. He comes into this fight with an overall record of 23-9 with 1 no contest. He made his UFC debut in 2018, but 7 of his 9 losses came in 2016 or earlier. In the UFC, he's 6-2 with some quality wins. His best wins have come against Raulian Paiva, Tyson Nam, Rogerio Bontorin, and most recently, Cody Garbrandt. His 2 UFC losses came at the hands of Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval. Kai's style is much like that of the rest of his City Kickboxing teammates. He wants to stand and strike and does a really good job of stopping takedowns. For a man they call "Don't Blink" he had trouble finding finishes early on in his UFC tenure, but he's found the magic touch recently. He has 2 knockouts in a row and he seems to really be finding his stride. Kara-France is fast and throws strikes with plenty of volume, which you probably expect from a flyweight, but it is still worth noting. As a lot of the City Kickboxing fighters do, Kai uses a lot of feints to set up his shots and force reactions out of his opponent. As he makes his reads, he's able to find the openings and with his above average power for the division, he can do damage once he lands. Kara-France is a diverse striker, but I would say that he relies more on traditional boxing and his hands more than a typical Muay Thai style of striking. I assume that part of his game is ever evolving though. I can't imagine someone trains with Israel Adesanya for long periods of time and isn't able to significantly improve their kicking game, so keep an eye out for that. Kara-France also has displayed pretty good cardio for the most part and I don't expect him to gas out in this one as long as he was able to have a normal training camp. The final strength I want to go over will be important in this fight specifically and that is his takedown defense. Kara-France defends takedowns at an 87% rate and that is about as good as you can get. There are a few weak spots in his game as well and as a striker, you may have already come to the conclusion that his ground game is one of them. While I am putting his grappling in the weaknesses, that isn't to say he's completely lost on the ground. Kai has shown himself to be competent on the ground and can work his way up when need be, but don't look for him to be shooting for any takedowns. He also isn't going to be throwing up any submissions off of his back in all likelihood. The final thing I want to mention as a potential weakness for Kai is his potential to be finished. Of his 9 career losses, 5 have come via finish, so I think that is something that needs to be considered when evaluating how this matchup could go for him. This goes hand in hand with his defense. Because Kai is so active in throwing his strikes, he gives a lot of openings to be hit, which he does a little more than you would like. He's absorbing almost 4 strikes per minute, which is just a little too high, but it isn't extreme. He's done a much better job recently of limiting the huge shots, but he can fall into a tendency to be a little reckless at times, which gets him hit quite a bit. Most flyweights don't have the power to really make him pay, but I think being a tad more measured like he's been more recently is a nice improvement to his game. Throwing strikes with good volume is only effective if you're not absorbing a ton and I think he's found a much better balance of aggression and volume striking to measured and controlled defensive responsibility. Overall, Kai Kara-France is a really good fighter who is starting to really find his stride in the UFC. He's in a number one contender fight for a reason and I expect him to be at his best on Saturday.
Askar Askarov might be one of the more overlooked fighters on the UFC roster. He comes into this fight 14-0 in his career with 1 draw. That draw came in his UFC debut against Brandon Moreno and he is 3-0 in the promotion since. Those wins have come against Tim Elliot, Alexandre Pantoja, and Joe Benavidez. Those are about as good of 3 wins as someone can have in their first 4 UFC fights, so Askarov is the real deal. In my opinion, Askarov may have already gotten his title shot had he not missed weight for his last fight against Benavidez. That is something that he's going to have to get in order, but he doesn't have a history of missing weight, so I'm not going to be worried about it until it becomes more of a trend. Askarov uses a very grappling and top control heavy style, which doesn't always have him in the fans good graces, which I wouldn't doubt is a secondary contributing factor to him not having gotten a title shot yet. He isn't particularly efficient with his takedowns and he only hits them with a 28% success rate, which is a bit concerning for someone with takedown defense like Kara-France has. What Askarov does have is an ability to chain his takedown attempts together in a way where he can still get to them even if the initial shot is stuffed. He averages 2.75 takedowns per 15 minutes, so he is going to be looking to wrestle early and as often as he can. Askarov is in a similar position to where Kai Kara-France was only a few fights ago. Overall, he has a reputation as a finisher, but as far as most fans know, he's really not. Of his 14 wins, 11 of them have come via stoppage. The problem is that the 3 wins that came via decision are all 3 of his UFC wins, so he's not finding the finishes in the same way that he is accustomed to. He most certainly is not a "lay and pray" type of grappler as that style has gone by the wayside in modern MMA, but he isn't the most aggressive guy on the ground either. He most certainly prioritizes position over submission/damage, so there is the potential that he just tries to grind this one out. I do think he would benefit from adding a bit of aggression to his game once he gets it down, but he still is finding his footing in the UFC to some degree. This is a guy who has a successful twister submission on his resume, so he clearly knows how to find submissions, I just think he needs to look for them a little more or opt to land more ground and pound. Flyweight is a tough division to win fights with top control because most fighters are strong enough to kick the 125 lbs fighters off and create scrambles, but Askarov has found a way around that. He is really smothering once he gets on top and can suck the life out of his opponents in a way that demoralizes them. Askarov's chin has obviously held up pretty well as he is undefeated and his cardio is just sufficient. He is able to grind out decisions, but he doesn't really weaponize pace in the same way that other fighters can. Weaponizing pace at flyweight is a much more difficult thing to do in general as it is nearly impossible to not have great cardio and cut down to 125 lbs, but it is worth noting that he can slow down at times, but not truly gas out completely. The striking is where Askarov has the most room for growth and we’ve seen him progress over his time in the UFC. Even with those improvements, his striking still the weaker part of his game and is at a level where it can be exploited by more advanced and experienced standup fighters. I don’t think that the technique is the problem for Askarov. While you’re not going to confuse him for Israel Adesanya, his technical skills are at an acceptable level, especially for someone who is primarily a grappler. I think the real issue for him is that he isn’t a particularly explosive athlete (in comparison to his peers, not in general). He doesn't have the crazy power or hand speed to make up for technical skills that are just ordinary when it comes to the UFC roster. He has the skills to hold his own on the feet for moments and stretches, but if forced to stand for entire rounds, that is where he can be exposed by high level strikers with more experience. He hasn't had his takedowns stopped like that yet in his career, but I don't view him as a Khabib level wrestler, so I think it is bound to happen at some point in his career.
This fight is both a big one and a pretty interesting matchup. It isn't going to be an easy fight for either man, but I do anticipate that one will be able to impose their will on the other more easily. I don't know which one that is, but I don't feel like this will be a back and forth contest that goes to a split decision. I think, if it goes the distance, it will be a pretty clear call as to who won. Either Askarov is going to get the takedowns when he wants and he'll control Kai for long stretches of all 3 rounds or Kara-France will stuff the takedowns and his striking will just take over. I think one key to this will be who controls the pressure and movement. If Kai Kara-France is moving backwards and ends up along the outskirts of the cage, I think it might be a long night for him. I don't know if Kai necessarily has to go forward, but he can't let himself just get pushed back. He has to stand his ground and keep the fight in the middle of the cage. Kai also can't over extend himself while the fight is standing. A lot of times, when there is a clear striker vs grappler situation, the striker feels the pressure to make something happen while the fight is standing and they end up reach and over extending themselves. This ultimately gets them taken down faster than they would have otherwise and Kai has to avoid the urge to do so. A big advantage that Kai has is that he can rely on the experience of his teammate Israel Adesanya. Basically every opponent Izzy has ever had has tried to fight with the style that Askarov is going to try to use, so if there was ever a teammate who could help Kai defend takedowns, it is probably Izzy. Kara-France already has excellent takedown defense, but getting help from one of the best can't hurt. As for Kara-France's offense, I think his best route would be to focus on volume striking and to try and put a pace on Askarov as best as he can. I think Kai has a slight cardio advantage and if he can keep the fight standing early and have his strikes start to add up, that will take some steam off of Askarov's takedown attempts later on. Kara-France will have a small 2 inch reach advantage, which could come into play if he's really careful. It isn't a huge differential, so it won't likely serve as a huge difference in the fight, but if he can keep Askarov on the ends of his punches, it will help a little bit. I think it would behoove him to throw his jab early and often to attempt to keep Askarov at range for as long as possible. In either case, I don't particularly anticipate a back and forth battle. I would be surprised if we see 3 rounds of Askarov controlling for half the round on the ground and Kai controlling the other half of each round on the feet. I think we either see Askarov's grappling dominate or Kara-France stuffs the takedowns and dominates the striking.
What do you guys think? Who are you picking in this fight? What are your keys to victory? Does Askar Askarov remain undefeated and grapple his way to a title shot? Or does Kai Kara-France stuff the takedowns and pick Askarov apart on the feet? Leave your thoughts in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
Comments
Post a Comment