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UFC Vegas 50 Fallout: What's Next for Thiago Santos and Magomed Ankalaev?

 Well, this weeks UFC event was the inverse of what we have largely seen so far this year. The formula for the cards up to this point was a lot of mediocre action that is capped off with a really good main event. This week we saw a really good and fun card basically from the very start end with a very lackluster main event. I saw some fans complaining that this wasn't a main event caliber of fight and whether that is true or not, I really don't have a problem with it. The UFC is putting on around 45 events a year and someone has to be the main event for those. Santos is a relatively known name, especially for that division, and they are trying to build Ankalaev for a future title shot. It wasn't the most interesting or exciting fight to watch, but Ankalaev is continuing his ascent to the top of the light heavyweight division and that was really the goal of this fight from the UFC's perspective. I do have a bit to say, but it is more about the specifics of each fighter, so let's get into that.

I think they way I would describe this fight is "Magomed Ankalaev did enough to win", which is fine, but when you're getting into the top 5, you would really like to see a fighter put a stamp on his performance. It really seemed from the start that Ankalaev had no interest in doing so and was content to just edge out rounds by the thinnest of margins. I was looking forward to this fight because Ankalaev is a guy who a lot of people have been looking at as a future challenger for a couple of years now. Every time out, he's been getting a small bump up in competition and I'm always ready to see how he responds. I was thinking that coming out of this fight, he would be primed for a really nice title eliminator type of fight and with a dominant or impressive enough fight, he had an outside chance to skip the line entirely. I really came out of this fight with more questions about Ankalaev that answers, which isn't what I anticipated at all. We knew he would keep the fight at a slower pace in the striking, but it almost seemed like he was just holding back and preventing himself from throwing and landing strikes. He would have Santos backed up with nowhere to go and then would throw an isolated straight to the body then back out. It was a very strange performance. I get that Santos is very dangerous with his power and that was basically his only clear path to victory, but at some point Ankalaev still has to get his offense going. If the whole game plan is just to limit the opponents offense and minimize risk, I think he is going to be in trouble when it comes to the fighters above him. He'll probably see one of those guys next and I feel worse about his chances now then I did before this fight. What was so weird to me is that he was clearly so comfortable that he was winning when it really wasn't that obvious at times. He was so content to just narrowly win each round when it seemed like every round was one flurry of strikes away from swinging in either direction. Now, Ankalaev did win, so it wasn't all bad. He did a good job of doing the things he normally does very well. He managed distance very well and was able to land his strikes, while at the same time limiting the damage he takes. Late in the fight he did go to the grappling a little, but was only able to control the clinch in the last round and not get Santos all the way down. He was able to get a takedown in the 4th, but still wasn't able to get off a ton of offense. He was dropped in the second round, which is something we haven't seen before, so that is relevant too. Overall, I don't want to be too critical of a winning performance, but I don't think he did himself any favors when it comes to really pushing for the title shot. He is more in a position to just take the next fight instead of having the ability to really call his shot.

The one positive is that at the point in the rankings that he's in, Ankalaev really doesn't have to call his shot because there's a limited number of options ahead of him. It is clear that he won't be getting the title shot next, even though that was unlikely to begin with. That really leaves him with Anthony Smith, Aleksandar Rakic, and Jan Blachowicz. Rakic and Blachowicz were originally matched up with each other in a fight that was scheduled for the 26th. Unfortunately, Jan was forced to withdraw from that fight and the UFC opted to pull Rakic from the card instead of finding him a replacement. This was sort of an indication to me that 1. Jan's injury wasn't that bad and they would be able to rebook the fight somewhat quickly and 2. that they really want that fight to happen. If I am to assume those things are true, that fight will not only be rebooked, but likely serves as the number one contender fight, especially if Rakic gets the win. That sort of leaves Anthony Smith and that is the fight I would want to see regardless. If Ankalaev were to get a win in that fight, that would answer a lot of the questions that I still have about him. If nothing else, Smith wouldn't allow Ankalaev to just stand in front of him and win rounds by landing 12 strikes. Smith is going to force Ankalaev to really fight for the entire 15 or 25 minutes. It will also give Anakalev someone who fights at a little more of a pace to deal and has the submission skills that he hasn't really seen in an opponent since Paul Craig. This would set up as a title eliminator fight for the both of them and is the next logical step in Ankalaev's career in my estimation. 

The other side of this is the underwhelming performance from Thiago Santos. This makes for yet another disappointing showing from him and it has become increasingly clear that the horrible knee injuries he suffered in the Jon Jones fight have altered Thiago Santos in a way that he won't be able to come back from. It is worth noting that the recovery from those injuries has coincided with Santos getting up there in age, which at the very least isn't helping matters. Santos still looks powerful when he throws, but I have to wonder if his knees just don't allow him to train as much or as hard as he would normally being doing. That was realistically as slow of a fight as one can imagine and there was a point in the 4th round I think where he dropped his hands and had to just take multiple deep breaths. To land 60 strikes over 25 minutes and be absolutely gassed by the end just isn't the kind of pace that can win fights within the top 5 of any division. He needs to be able to push harder than that and it just doesn't seem like that is really an option for him at this stage in his career. I think was most concerning is that we never really saw that push for Santos. I think most of those rounds were within striking distance. I don't think it is wild to say that one flurry from Santos could have swung multiple rounds in his favor. If he would have taken 1 big push in each round where he throw a huge 4-6 strike combo, I really think that could have changed multiple rounds and he just didn't do it. Even after he knew that his power could hurt Ankalaev, he just couldn't find it in himself to let those shots go. Santos still has the size and power to be dangerous, but without the cardio, I just don't really know where he stands within the division right now. He's basically just a lesser version of Derrick Lewis right now. They can knock out basically anyone in the world, but that is virtually their only chance at a victory. I just can't say with any confidence that I can see Santos winning another big fight just because the volume of strikes isn't there. I hold out hope that Santos is still recovering and the next time we see him will be closer to the old version of himself, but with each passing fight, that seems less and less likely.

With that said, just because Santos seems to be nearing the end doesn't mean that there's no fights for him. I really don't want to see him against anyone who is at a super high level, but I don't think I'll be getting my wish. I could see the UFC matching him up with Dominick Reyes and as long as that isn't a main event, I don't really hate the idea I suppose. Both men are having a hard time of late. Santos has lost 3 of 4 since his return and Reyes has lost 3 in a row. It would give them a chance to bounce back without having to drop down too far. I just don't like that matchup for Santos because I really don't see him as being in a position to defeat any really high level opponents. I think a more appropriate matchup could be someone like Volkan Oezdemir. They're in similar spots not only with their struggles of late, but also in age and time in the game. I don't see that fight as being particularly likely though as it really doesn't do anything for the UFC as neither fighter is likely going anywhere regardless of the result. I think it is more likely that they try to build another fighter off of Santos' name. The logical place to look for that would be the winner of next week's Paul Craig vs Nikita Krylov fight. The winner of that fight would be looking to make a push towards the top and Santos is a name for them to build on. The timelines being so close also make it a much easier match to make if the UFC opts to move in that direction. If they go with the option of building another contender, there's no better option than Jamahal Hill as he is the best prospect in the division right now that Jimmy Crute has met some resistance. That would be a pretty easy fight to sell as a "there's no way this one goes the distance" type of fights. I don't have too much of a problem with any of those matchups, but it is time to stop putting Thiago Santos in a main event. He's been in 3 since returning and none of them have been particularly great. You guys know that I really don't like speaking negatively of fighters because I just feel weird doing so. All of these men and women are warriors who show tremendous skill, discipline, and heart just to get in their and compete at the level that they do and for some jabroni like me to sit here and criticize them feels a little weird to me personally, but I just have to call a spade a spade here. 

I think that's it from me on this one. Saying this much about a fight where almost nothing happened is probably enough in it's own right. What did you guys think? Do you have any thoughts on the fight? Who do you want to see next for Magomed Ankalaev? Where does Thiago Santos go from here? Leave any thoughts you have in the comments. As always, thanks for reading and have a good one. 

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