Damn...we're already at UFC Vegas 50? I had to go back to find out that UFC Vegas 1 was Tyron Woodley vs Gilbert Burns incase you were wondering. This sport never stops and its time to look ahead to what we have for this weekend and let me tell you, we finally have a really good card. This card may honestly be better than the UFC 272 card if you hold the main events constant. This weeks main event is a pretty interesting one as we see UFC veteran and former title challenger Thiago Santos take on rising contender Magomed Ankalaev. Santos has had a rocky time since returning from injury, but got back in the win column his last time out. Meanwhile, Ankalaev has been slowly climbing the ranks of the light heavyweight division and is now ready for a potential title eliminator type of fight. Santos is ranked 5th and Ankalaev is 6th, so I think it is safe to say that whoever wins this fight may be only 1, at most 2, fights away from their own title shot. For the new readers, I go through the resume for each fighter and briefly discuss their styles. Then I try to point out a few key points to look for and whichever fighter can win more of those keys, that is who will probably win the fight overall. We'll stop wasting time and get right into it.
The blue corner in this fight will feature rising Russian contender Magomed Ankalaev. He enters this contest with a record of 16-1 with his only professional loss coming in his UFC debut to Paul Craig via a triangle choke with 1 second left in the fight. Ankalaev has gone on to win his next 7 fights in the UFC over the last 3+ years. Santos will represent his toughest opponent to date, but his last handful of wins have been pretty good ones. He has a pair of finishes over Ion Cutelaba and consecutive decision victories over Nikita Krylov and Volkan Oezdemir. At this point in his career, Ankalaev is probably more well known for his powerful striking, but he's more well rounded than a lot of fans know. Ankalaev likes to fight in a very patient, slower paced style on the feet. He doesn't throw a ton of strikes, but he is very efficient in landing them and he does so with really good power. He also avoids damage very well on the feet. He uses his length to his advantage and has an overall pretty diverse striking style, especially compared to the typical Russian skillset. His kicks aren't extremely dynamic or anything, but he mixes them in effectively enough to force opponents to acknowledge and respect them. He does have a solid wrestling base, but again, it isn't as dominant or forceful as some of his Russian contemporaries. He averages about 1 takedown per 15 minutes, but he doesn't land them particularly efficiently. We saw him try to wrestle with Volkan Oezdemir and while he wasn't dragging him to the ground over and over again, he was able to control the clinch and manage the risk later in the fight once he was ahead. Overall, what makes Ankalaev so difficult to beat is that he just doesn't give his opponents any openings. He isn't wild and doesn't take any risks. Everything he does is very clean and technical. He doesn't get taken down and he doesn't take damage on the feet. If there's any weaknesses in Ankalaev's game, it is the submission defense, but I wouldn't worry too much about that, especially for this fight. Paul Craig is a pretty tricky opponent with submissions anyways, so there's no shame in being caught by him in your UFC debut. There aren't many more weaknesses, but there are a few unknowns. We've never seen Ankalaev go 5 rounds, so we will have to see that happen before we can accurately assess his cardio situation. I said before he doesn't fight with a super high output in the first place, so I would suspect that, at that pace, he would be fine. Thiago Santos fights at a similar pace, so I don't think we'll see his cardio really pushed this time around. The final point is that this is clearly the best fighter that Ankalaev has ever fought. With all due respect to Oezdemir, Santos is just at a better place overall in his career right now. Oezdemir was relying on his clean and technical boxing with a slight hand speed advantage, but Ankalaev was able to grapple and control him for a lot of the fight. Santos has a very similar striking style to Ankalaev, so it will be interesting to see how Ankalaev deals with someone when they're both trying to do similar things. We haven't seen a ton of weak spots for Magomed Ankalaev yet in his career and if he can check a few boxes and come away with a win, I suspect he'll really start getting talked about as a true title challenger.
I get the feeling that Thiago Santos has really lost a lot of the momentum he had and good will he had built up with fans. During his best run, he had won 8 of 9 fights, with only a knockout loss to David Branch breaking up those 4 fight win streaks. What helped him even more is that 7 of those 8 wins came via finish, with the only decision being against a short notice Kevin Holland of all people. There were quite a few notable opponents for him in that run as well. The 8 wins came over Jack Marshman, Gerald Meerschaert, Jack Hermansson, Anthony Smith, Kevin Holland, Eryk Anders, Jimi Manuwa, and Jan Blachowicz. That all led to his light heavyweight title fight against Jon Jones, which he would go own to lose via split decision. Fans were behind him going into that fight, mostly because of the general dislike for Jones, but he had a lot of fan backing coming out of the fight due to him pushing through injuries. After the fight, Santos would undergo surgery on both knees, including a left knee that tore or damaged almost every structural component in there. Unfortunately for him, the recovery from that would take quite awhile and he was unable to carry that momentum into his return. He came back against Glover Teixeira after a year and a half away and actually look pretty good in the early going. He was hurting Glover with big shots early and often. Teixeira would eventually get the fight to the ground and lock in the rear naked choke and get the submission win. Santos looked like he had gassed out a little bit, but no one was going to overreact to his first fight back after being away for so long and coming off of potentially career altering injuries. His next fight was against another extremely high level competitor in the form of Aleksandar Rakic in what ended up being a very strange fight. It was one of the slowest and most uneventful fights I've ever watched and Rakic ended up winning a decision despite being outstruck 49 to 36. Santos would finally get back in the win column though when he took a step down in competition to fight Johnny Walker. That was also a slower fight, but Santos was dealing with a significant size and reach disadvantage, so he was forced into being more careful. Thiago Santos is a pretty simple guy when it comes to his style. He doesn't do anything that is particularly fancy, but he can absolutely devastate his opponents if given the chance. He is so big, strong, and powerful that it is honestly wild to think that he made welterweight at any point in time. When you see Santos walk to the cage on Saturday, keep in mind that he fought Vicente Luque before they got to the UFC...That is just crazy to me. Anyways, Santos relies on his powerful striking to finish fights early. He throws all of his strikes with speed and power and at no point is really just trying to touch his opponent. Every strike is thrown with the intent of finishing the fight. He does have a pretty diverse striking skillset as well as his kicks are a huge part of his game. His power is not to be underestimated as he has finished some of the toughest guys still on the UFC roster. Jack Hermansson and Anthony Smith are not people who I would ever even consider questioning their toughness to any degree and Santos finished them in back to back fights. For being such a big guy, Santos is able to throw his strikes with a pretty good pace too. He also does a good job of limiting damage on the feet. Typically, you see fighters who have massive power engage in fire fights because they trust their power to land first. Santos doesn't use that style of fighting at all. He is able to limit damage on the feet very well. If any of this sounds familiar, it is because I just said so much of this about Ankalaev. On the feet, they're so similar. Santos throws a little more in terms of striking volume, but he also absorbs a little more. When I say a little more, I'm talking 0.2-0.3 strikes per minute, so very slim margins. In terms of weaknesses, Santos doesn't bring much in the grappling realm. He isn't going to be looking for any takedowns of his own, which is fine, but he is going to need to stay off the bottom. For his career, he has just ok takedown defense at 66%. That isn't horrible, but it isn't noticeably good either. One thing to note is that his defense has improved with time and he hasn't been taken down much since moving to 205 lbs other than the Glover Teixeira fight. Santos may be slightly more limited, but he is also the slightly more dangerous fighter. He also has the edge in experience in terms of total fights and level of competition.
This is the part of the breakdown where we try to determine how the skillsets will actually match up against the other. As we sit here today, Ankalaev is sitting around a -500 to -600 favorite and I think that might be a little too much. I think Ankalaev is the fighter who has more ways to win, but I'm not sure if it is by that much of a gap. On the feet, I think this fight projects to be pretty even. Ankalaev may be a little cleaner, but Santos is a little more active and has a little more power. Neither man has a weak chin by any means, but they're both so powerful that a finish is possible, especially over 25 minutes. Someone could land a huge shot at any point that alters the trajectory of the fight, but we'll try to look for some things beyond that. The clear advantage and key to this fight will be Ankalaev's grappling. If he can control Santos either on the ground or in the clinch, that will be his easiest path to victory. Santos has a pretty good gas tank when the fight is standing, but when it goes to the ground, he can be worn down. If Ankalaev can get takedowns, especially early, then he will have a huge advantage and would probably be able to win the fight with relative ease. Like I said, if Santos can force him to stand, that is where he has a chance to win. In the striking, it will be a somewhat slow paced fight, so the fighter who can turn up the pace even a little bit may be able to pull away on the scorecards. Santos has a history of having success with body kicks, so I would keep an eye on that as a potential strategy for him. I don't think Santos has no chance in this fight like the line and some people are suggesting, but I don't think he has a very easy path to victory either. Of course, he could always find that one huge strike and put Ankalaev out, but beyond that, his pathways are limited. If he is going to win by decision, he will have to stay away from Ankalaev's grappling. I'm not sure if he can keep it standing the entire time and simultaneously have his cardio hold up to the degree that he will be able to out strike Ankalaev in those rounds.
What do you guys think? Will Magomed Ankalaev continue to roll? Or Thiago Santos find his way back into the title conversation? What are some keys that you are looking for in this one? Leave your thoughts in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one. As always, I'll be making picks for every fight and those will be up tomorrow morning.
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