The co-main event of this Saturday's UFC 273 will feature the bantamweight title unification bout that we've been trying to see for what seems like forever now. Aljamain Sterling is the holder of the main belt after he won it by DQ, while Petr Yan won the interim title after defeating Cory Sandhagen this past October. Of course, these two fought for the title back in March of 2021 in a fight that saw Aljo get off to a fast start, but began fading as the fight progressed. Yan was coming on strong while Aljo slowed and it seemed to be trending in a direction where Yan was going to get the finish. However, all of that was thrown out the window when Yan landed an illegal knee to a grounded Sterling that rendered him unable to continue. Yan was disqualified and Sterling was named the champion. With this fight ending so controversially, it was almost a forgone conclusion that the fight would be immediately rebooked, which it was rather quickly. The fight was intended to take place in October, except Sterling wasn't cleared by the UFC doctors after the neck surgery he underwent due in part to the knee. Cory Sandhagen stepped into that spot in what was made into the interim title fight. Hopefully, we are finally getting the conclusion to this feud, at least for the time being because, quite frankly, it has been exhausting. Both fighters have looked varying degrees of bad in the media since this whole thing started and at this point, I'm just looking forward to a new story. I'm sure having to hear about TJ Dillashaw's PED history is going to get old quickly, but I'm here for it at this point. A lot of people have accused Aljo of acting and given the state of MMA twitter, no one should be surprised. He's leaned into that story, which was fine at first, but over the last two years, he's managed to reach Henry Cejudo levels of cringe and I'm just tired of hearing the same things over and over again. Similarly, Petr Yan's excuses for his own inability to follow the rules are very annoying. Yan has blamed basically everyone in the world for the illegal knee, except himself of course. Honestly, I would be a lot more excited for this fight if I wasn't so tired of them both at this stage. I'm just ready to move on with my life when it comes to men's bantamweight, despite it being my favorite division in MMA.
Yan is the interim champion and will be in the blue corner, so we'll talk about him first. Petr Yan has been getting buzz this week with people talking about him in the same breath as Alexander Volkanovski for status in the pound for pound top 3 and maybe even for the top spot. I think this is so largely overstated for Yan. I don't doubt that Yan is a great fighter and that he has serious skills, but I just don't see how his resume stacks up against Volk, Usman, or Izzy at this time. Yan is 16-2 in his career and 8-1 in the UFC. His only loss is the DQ to Sterling. However, his best wins are John Dodson, Jimmie Rivera, Urijah Faber, Jose Aldo, and Cory Sandhagen. With all due respect, defeating a 39 year old Faber isn't a fight that any reasonable person would suggest should be a win that propels someone into a title fight. However, I guess it does make sense when that title fight comes against the number 6 ranked fighter in the division at the time, who was coming off of a loss. Meanwhile, Aljo and Sandhagen fought each other a month before and, for whatever reason, that wasn't the vacant title fight. Now, I really don't mean to imply that Yan is some sort of paper champion who was hand picked for a title, but the facts are the facts. In a division that is almost universally agreed upon to be one of the three best and deepest weight classes in the sport, that is as easy a path as is realistically imaginable. Going into the Faber fight, Yan was ranked 4, while Faber was ranked 12. The number 4 fighter in the division defeated number 12 and parlayed it into a vacant title fight against the number 6 fighter in the division, who lost his previous fight. You can claim I'm implying whatever you want, but that is exactly what happened. Meanwhile, a month before the Yan/Aldo fight, Aljo was ranked 2, while Sandhagen was ranked 4 and that wasn't for the title. Anyways, Petr Yan is still a really good fighter, I just don't think his resume is nearly as bullet proof as some people seem to suggest. You can watch Yan fight and if you believe his skills are that of a pound for pound top 3, then that is fine and is a perfectly reasonable opinion to have, but to confuse that and substitute that for what he has actually accomplished is a misleading thing to do. His interim title fight win over Sandhagen carries legitimate weight though as that is by far the best opponent he's ever faced and he looked great in that win. Petr Yan, stylistically, is a pretty interesting fighter to watch. He's primarily a striker and on top of that, relies heavily on his boxing. He mixes in the kicks at times and has had success with them, but they're just not really a weapon that he chooses to rely on very heavily or at least he hasn't to date. They're more of a weapon that he mixes in just to keep his opponent honest and then throws some once his opponents are damaged and he's trying to find the finish. Yan earns his paycheck with his hands and he does so very well. He doesn't look to do anything crazy or flashy, but rather, he sticks to a fundamentally sound approach that limits his opponents openings and capitalizes on their mistakes. His boxing has been mentioned by several fighters outside of his weight class as some of the best in the entire UFC and if other fighters recognize that, then that's enough for me. Yan's grappling isn't particularly weak either though. He doesn't really choose to wrestle offensively too often as he often has the striking advantage, but he has been known to land takedowns at times. He got quite a few against Aljo the first time around, but they weren't your typical MMA style takedown. He caught some kicks and was able to dump Aljo on multiple occasions, which did get logged as takedowns. Yan wouldn't go to the ground though as that was Sterling's best chance to win and Yan preferred to keep it standing, where he was beginning to dominate as the fight progressed. If there's any weakness to Yan's game, it's that he is a noticeably slow starter. At this point, I am almost certain that it is on purpose because it happens so consistently. The early portions of the Aldo fight and the first fight with Sterling were close or went to his opponent. However, to his credit, Yan comes on strong in the second part of his fights and has been able to find finishes. I can't speak with 100% certainty, but it seems as though Yan uses the first round and some of the second round (in a five round fight) to make reads and get a feel for what his opponent is trying to do. He throws some strikes, but more just to keep things competitive and see how his opponent reacts. Once the fight gets going, there is a noticeable change in Yan and he turns it on. He will turn up both the volume of his striking and he really starts to put power behind his shots. Overall, Yan throws his strikes with a pretty high rate at almost 6 strikes per minute. He is able to do this with some of the most technical boxing in the division, while having at least above average power. That alone is a lot to deal with. Combine it with solid grappling and really good takedown defense and that is a serious problem for almost anyone. If I had to knit pick something else about Yan, it's that he does get hit more than he would probably like. At these smaller weight classes, the generally activity levels in the striking are higher and the power is lower, so being hit more isn't as surprising or as damaging per strike as it easy for the bigger guys, but obviously you would prefer not to be hit. He absorbs a little over 4 strikes per minute, which is high enough to raise an eyebrow, but his chin has never really failed him even a little bit, so I wouldn't worry about it just yet. Of course, as he ages, that will become more and more important, but Aljo isn't the kind of guy to just flatten someone with one shot, so I think he'll be ok in that regard. Sometimes I'm not really sure what to make of his cardio either. I don't know if Yan starts slow just so he can get reads and then capitalize or if he starts slow to conserve energy. Whatever it is, it works really well and he is very often the fresher fighter in the late going, so whatever the reason for it, it works very well, so I'm not going to question it. There really isn't much negative to say about Yan stylistically. He is so technical that his opponents have very few openings to work with, which leads to them forcing things and Yan can punish them for it. He's the clear favorite in this fight for me and should be the favorite against almost all fighters at 135 lbs right now.
The red corner is going to be the champion Aljamain Sterling. I feel like I can't say "undisputed champion" because the fact that there is an interim disputes that right? I don't know. Anyways, clowning on Aljo has become the popular thing to do and while he hasn't done much to deter it, he's a way better fighter than people are giving him credit for. Purely in terms of resume, Aljo is just as accomplished as Yan is both overall and within the UFC. He will come into this fight with a record of 20-3 and a UFC record of 12-3. Those losses have come to Bryan Caraway, Raphael Assuncao (both by split decision), and a knockout loss to Marlon Moraes. His latest run, since the Moraes knockout, has been 6 wins in a row dating back to 2018. Those wins came against Brett Johns, Cody Stamman, Jimmie Rivera, Pedro Munhoz, Cory Sandhagen, and the DQ against Yan. Do you see what I mean now when I find it weird when people argue for Yan to be number one pound for pound, but talk about Aljo like he's just some random guy? I'm not disputing that Yan is probably the better all around fighter and especially given how the first fight was going, that he should be the favorite, but to act like they're just on two completely different levels is a little odd. I always have to say that I don't train and I'm not a martial arts expert, so keep that in mind. I do see how Yan passes the eye test to a greater extent, but in terms of what they have actually done in terms of actual names on their resume, they really aren't that different. In one of his interviews with Ariel Helwani (and I assume he's told the story elsewhere as well) Aljo talks about how he hadn't eaten the day of the fight and how that contributed to his performance and uses that to explain why he gassed so quickly. Maybe it is an excuse, but I personally don't see a reason for him to make it up because it really doesn't matter. Whether he was gassed or not is largely irrelevant as that has little to do with why Yan landed the illegal knee. If you want to use that as your reason to pick or bet Yan, that is more than legitimate. Aljo doesn't really have a history of gassing by and large (the Caraway fight stands out as one he gassed in), so I don't think that will necessarily be a huge factor. Stylistically, Sterling is much more of a grappler. He has a background in wrestling and he's used that to get a majority of his career wins. He's paired that with a pretty good BJJ game that allows him to finish fights via submission. I wouldn't necessarily characterize Aljo's striking as a weakness, but he is a little more limited there. He takes a bit of a Colby Covington approach, meaning that what he lacks in technical acumen, he makes up for in volume. He's not the prettiest looking striker, but he throws a lot out there and lands at a pretty nice rate, just under 5 strikes per minute. He uses his kicks pretty well, which is sort of an odd thing to say for someone who isn't necessarily a striker, but they've become a nice weapon for him. Aljo has pretty good striking defense, which will serve him well in this fight. He only absorbs 2.20 strikes per minute, which is helped out some by his top control heavy style, but still, 63% striking defense is definitely above average. One thing that is more of an actual weakness for Aljo is his power. He just doesn't really have the pop in his strikes to flip the fight on its head. That isn't completely uncommon for the smaller divisions, but even then, I think his power is probably below average. Obviously, he's had great success without it, but if the fight comes down to a Hail Mary in the last round for him, he just doesn't really have that knockout power, especially at the highest level of the division where everyone has a really solid chin. Some people may remember how bad the knockout loss to Moraes looked and it was a scary one, but Sterling's chin has held up other than that. That is his only knockout loss and it came back in 2017. He's had plenty of fights since and he's never been finished, so I'm not too worried about his chin. Maybe he gets finished after an accumulation of shots over 3, 4, and 5 rounds, but I don't think he's just going to get starched in the early going. One last thing to consider with Sterling is the situation with his neck. He's had some issues in the past and either this injury made it worse or just over time it had finally gotten bad enough to warrant surgery. In October, the doctors didn't clear him, which is why he pulled out, but I assume he has been cleared as the fight is in a couple of days. However, this will be his first appearance since that surgery and anything involving your neck is pretty serious. He looks to be in fantastic shape based on his Instagram, so I assume he's feeling good, but the first time back after a major surgery like that does warrant some attention.
Of course, I'm going to do the keys to the fight and the first one is going to be the first two rounds. I talked about how Yan typically starts slow and then dominates late and I'm assuming we'll get a similar strategy here. I do think it is possible that Yan does start a little faster since he's fought Aljo already and would have some degree of a read on him, but I think that patient, slow start is just an ingrained part of his style. This means that Aljo has to start fast though. If he wants to win a decision, he definitely needs to get the first round and probably the first two. That puts him in a position to only need one of the final three rounds, which while easier said than done, is a favorable position to be in. Going into the late rounds even or behind Yan is not a good situation to be in. That will leave him having to take chances and Yan will be there to punish every mistake. The flip side of this is that if Yan can start faster because he's more familiar with Aljo, then he has more time to work and won't have to come from behind like he usually is. The problem for Sterling here is that there has to be a a balance. He has to make sure he wins those early rounds, but if he goes crazy, he could end up emptying the tank and gassing out like he did last time. Doing enough to make sure the judges know you won the round, but conserving enough to do that every round is a very fine line to walk, but that is the level of greatness that is necessary to win a championship or I guess retain a championship in this case. Maybe even more important than that is the fact that Aljo needs to have his takedowns working. Even if he can win the first two rounds based on volume strikes while Yan is getting his reads, if he is going to be forced to stand with him for the last three rounds, that is bad news for Aljo. Yan is too technical and powerful for Sterling to out strike him over 15 minutes. If this is primarily a standup fight like the first one was, it will be Yan's fight to lose. I think the first couple of takedown attempts will put pressure on someone. If Aljo can get in and land a takedown early, he'll be able to settle down and be in his environment. This puts the pressure on Yan because he knows that he can be taken down now. Similarly, if Yan stuffs the first couple of attempts and keeps it standing for the first round, the pressure is on Sterling. Even if he's able to win that round on cage control, if he can't get the fight to the ground, it is going to be a long night for him. I think the fight can be boiled down to that if you really want to. Sterling has to get takedowns and he has to get them early. He can't afford to be even heading into the latter part of the fight because that is when Yan will turn up the volume and power and really start to pull away. One final thing I want to mention is that Aljo will have a size advantage. He's the longer fighter by 4 inches and if he can perfectly use that reach, then things would get really interesting. In theory, he could keep Yan at a distance where he can't touch him and then close the distance completely for his takedown attempts and really neutralize Yan's offense. I don't know if he has the ability to do so, but if he could, things would get very interesting. I think Yan is a high enough level striker that he will be able to work around it and Sterling won't be able to completely maximize it, but if can use that for long stretches, that would go a long way towards him winning this fight.
This was a little longer than usual, but so was yesterdays. I think the main even will probably have the shortest one, which is definitely uncommon, but that comes tomorrow, so be ready for it. What do you guys think of this fight? Who do you expect to win and how? Leave all of your thoughts in the comments below and thanks for reading. Have a good one.
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