After having a week with virtually no MMA at all, we are met with probably the best PPV card of the year to date, at least on paper. It is going to take a special event to pass up UFC London from a couple of weeks ago, but it isn't impossible. I really do think this card is going to live up to the hype. The prelims have some fun and interesting matchups with a pair of ranked heavyweights and the return of highly touted prospect Ian Garry. While that is all fine and dandy, this card is carried by the top 3 fights on the bill and the most interesting of the bunch may be the one that doesn't have a title attached to it. That is the welterweight bout between Khamzat Chimaev and Gilbert Burns. This fight is a title eliminator for Chimaev and, for a slightly lesser degree, for Burns as well. Burns just had his title shot recently, so his road back is probably a little longer, but this one will go a long way towards getting him back to that spot. Chimaev is the hottest name in MMA right now because he has ran through every opponent he's faced and is making the biggest jump in competition of his short career to date. If he wins on Saturday, I don't know how the UFC will be able to avoid giving him a title shot, despite Leon Edwards having earned the shot multiple times over. This is the fight that I think that most people have as their most anticipated of the night and I am with them. This should be a good one, so let's dive into it.
The blue corner will feature Khamzat "Borz" Chimaev, who enters ranked 11 in the welterweight division, despite only being 2-0 in that weight class. Chimaev had taken the world by storm in 2020 as he dominated his first three fights in the UFC. Those wins came against John Phillips, Rhys McKee, and Gerlad Meerschaert. That brought Chimaev to 9-0 in his career that had only started a couple of years earlier in 2018. After the Meerschaert victory, it seemed like Chimaev was on a collision course for massive fights and a potential title shot on a timeline that seemed accelerate with every performance. That was confirmed when he was first booked to fight a top 5 opponent in Leon Edwards at the end of 2020. It was at this point where Chimaev contracted COVID and he had a particularly tough case. Edwards also tested positive for COVID and the December fight was cancelled. They rebooked that fight two separate times, once for late January and another time in mid March, and Chimaev was forced to pull out of both as he was still struggling to fully recover from COVID. It was so bad at one point that he talked about retirement on his Instagram, but, obviously, that didn't happen. He would eventually return in October of 2021 and he demolished Li Jingliang in under a round. That brings us to present day, where Chimaev will be making a huge jump up the rankings and in competition level to face one of the best welterweights in the world. Now that we know Chimaev's recent history, we can talk about his style. Like a lot of people from his region of the world, Chimaev uses a wrestling heavy attack and prioritizes top position. If you are familiar with MMA at all and the style that a lot of Russian athletes use, then Chimaev will look very familiar to you. Chimaev is an extremely high level wrestler and he combines that with his explosive athleticism and strength. Quite frankly, he was just on another level than his first two opponents and was able to just bulldoze them without much resistance, so while as amazing as those performances were, we really didn't get too much of a read on him. When he dominated Li Jingliang in much the same fashion, that was a pretty clear indication that his grappling was just different. Jingliang came out and threw a wild strike that gave Chimaev an easy opening to grab him, but when he picked him up and carried him across the octagon while yelling at Dana White, that was when it became clear that he was for real in terms of challenging for a title in the immediate future. With respect to all of his opponents, Chimaev has made them look very ordinary, even though they are some of the best mixed martial artists in the world. While Chimaev is a dominant wrestler, he skills don't stop there. He has extremely powerful ground and pound that he uses aggressively. A lot of wrestlers are very cautious and opt to use a slower style when striking on the ground to ensure that they don't lose their position. Chimaev is much more willing to posture up and fire off multiple power strikes in longer combinations. He relies on the fact that his power is just different and will force his opponent to deal with that rather than focus on getting up when he creates space and, at least so far, he's been right. His power just seems to effect people in a different way. On top of this, he also has shown really solid submission skills. I wouldn't go as far as to say he's one of the best submission artists in the sport, but he's done a really good job of finding them and then finishing them. His strength and squeeze seem to help make up for whatever technical deficiency he may have. Obviously, I'm not a BJJ expert, so I can't speak to that as much, but in terms of how effectively he uses it in an MMA setting, he's pretty good. Discussing Chimaev's weaknesses is a little bit of a projection because we just don't know that much about him. Everything we've seen from him has been great, but we've only seen a fraction of the overall MMA skillset. The first thing that people bring up is his striking. We haven't really seen him stand and strike with someone for more than a few seconds (in the UFC) and he landed one punch that knocked Meerschaert out cold. We knew his power was significant based on his ground and pound and the Meerschaert knockout only confirmed that. While it was only a brief exchange, I was impressed with how patient Khamzat was in that moment. He has the reputation of being a wild man, which he largely is, but he didn't just start chucking wild punches, he was measured and then exploded when he got the opening he wanted. This wasn't enough to call him a great striker, especially if met with someone who's a little more advanced than Meerschaert is, but it was a good sign. There is some video out there of Khamzat striking and getting knockouts in his days before the UFC, but I don't put much stock into those videos. First, they're not very recent and we can only assume Khamzat has improved since then and second, the level of competition isn't high enough to really get a good read for what he's capable of. With that said, those videos show that Khamzat had at least a decent feel for striking. He didn't look lost or completely unnatural in the way that we see some grappling heavy fighters look. Over the last several months, Khamzat has been training with Darren Till, which will only help his striking. The real test will be how Khamzat looks when the striking gets chaotic and when he has to do it for several minutes in a row. If Burns turns this fight into a fire fight and starts trading, Khamzat will need to let his instincts take over and be able to throw his combinations fluidly without having to think about it. We've never seen him in a situation like that, so it is impossible to say whether he can have success in those moments. A more worrisome situation would be if Khamzat can't get his takedowns and is forced to have to win a standup battle. We know he is powerful and can find a finish, but having to strike his way to a decision is a different type of proposition. We simply don't know exactly where his skills are at in those situations. We can't say he can do it, but we can't just assume he can't either. I think that the more interesting and more important question surrounds Khamzat's cardio. I think a fresh Khamzat Chimaev can take down almost anyone in the world. What happens if that opponent can defend himself and work back to his feet is honestly where I think there might be an opening. Chimaev is a big guy for welterweight and he cuts a lot of weight. It is easier said than done, but I think pushing the fight into the later rounds could pose an issue for him. We know Khamzat is a wild man and forces his opponent into a fight from the opening moment. However, it is still unclear how long he can keep that pace up. He's never reached the 7 minute mark of a fight in his professional career and that isn't nothing. Again, it is impossible to say what Khamzat's cardio is and isn't, but at some point in the fight, he's going to slow down at some point in the fight. When he does slow down, the fight could get a lot more interesting. I'm not going to dwell too much on the unknowns because it is just me sitting here speculating, but I think we'll get some of those answers Saturday. The final unknown that I almost forgot to mention is that we've also never seen Khamzat get hit. We have no idea how he takes a punch or what he looks like when things can start go sideways for him. Gilbert Burns was able to hurt Kamaru Usman, who has one of the best chins in the division. Whether he can actually find Khamzat's chin or not is a different story, but if he does, I'm interested to see how Chimaev takes those shots and responds.
When it comes to Gilbert Burns, I think he is being overlooked. Khamzat is the shiny new object in the division and I'm excited to see him too, but we have to recognize what he's getting himself into. Gilbert Burns is number two in the welterweight rankings and I think that is the appropriate spot for him. He's been in the UFC since 2014 and he spent a lot of the early portion of his career as a lightweight. He had more success than failure during that time, but he was never really able to make a huge push towards the title. He made the full time move to welterweight in the summer of 2019 and he went on a run all the way to a title shot. Consecutive wins over Alexey Kunchenko, Gunnar Nelson, Damein Maia, and Tyron Woodley put him into a title fight with former teammate Kamaru Usman. Burns got off to a great start in that fight and hurt Usman in the opening moments. Burns emptied the tank trying to finish the fight and when Usman was able to survive, Burns found himself behind the 8-ball. He would go on to be finished in the 3rd round of that fight. He has since returned and picked up a win over Stephen Thompson. It wasn't the most amazing performance of his career, but any win is a good one when you're fighting inside the top 5 of a division. Burns brings a very interesting style to the table and that has helped him get to where he is. Early on, Gilbert was known a little more for his jiu-jitsu skills and for good reason. He has 20 career wins and 8 of them have come by submission, the most of any method for him (6 knockouts and 6 decisions). Burns will be dangerous on the ground whether he is on top or fighting off of his back. 5 of his 8 career submissions have come via armbar, so if he does end up on his back, that is one thing to keep an eye out for. While that part of his game has always been there, he didn't start to really rise until his standup game caught up with the rest of his skills. Burns has always been a powerful and explosive athlete and that became even more apparent when he stopped cutting to 155. His improvements in the striking technique allowed him to get the most out of the power and athleticism and took him all the way to a title shot. Burns still isn't the most technical striker in the world and he does leave openings when he starts to get wild, but it hasn't hurt him too much outside of the Usman fight. When it comes to Burns' weaknesses, they're a little weird. Let me explain. One weakness is probably his technical striking acumen. He throws big, powerful strikes that leave him open to counters from a more technically sound opponent. That is what happened when Usman was throwing the shorter, straighter punches and was beating Burns to the spot in every exchange. However, Burns does such a good job of sucking his opponents into his type of fight, that a lot of fighters haven't been able to really take advantage. He does a good job of controlling the fight and having his opponents do what he wants them to. I know Tyron Woodley wasn't fully himself at that stage of his career, but the way he was able to push him against the cage and force Tyron into the spots he wanted him was impressive. I think the other weakness in Burns game is his pure wrestling skills. I mentioned it before, but he doesn't land his takedowns very efficiently and doesn't stop takedowns at a significant rate. I think he would benefit significantly by adding more offensive wrestling to his game and we saw him be able to take Stephen Thompson to the ground pretty consistently last time out. Maybe that is a sign of his overall growth and improvement. Defensively, I don't think Burns has ever really been all that concerned about being taken down because he is so comfortable off his back. He has such a belief in his jiu-jitsu skills that he feels he can win any fight from his back. I don't doubt that he could, but I don't think that would be a good strategy against Khamzat. He'll likely get taken down at some point, but I think he needs to be trying to work back to his feet instead of allowing Khamzat to have all of that top control time. For the most part, Burns has displayed good cardio and a good chin. The Usman fight has left a bad taste in people's mouths, but that was only the second knockout loss of Burns career and the other came down a weight class to Dan Hooker. Burns did empty the tank against Usman and gassed out completely, but besides that, I don't think his gas tank has ever really been too much of an issue. He went 5 rounds with Woodley and then was able to wrestle 3 rounds with Thompson and his cardio held up. Of course, it is a lot easier for the gas tank to look good when you're the one controlling the fight, but that can be said for almost anyone. Burns isn't a perfect fighter, but he's a damn good one and the way his skillset fits together is a really tough puzzle to solve for most fighters. This should be the hardest fight of Chimaev's career by a considerable margin.
As usual, there are a few keys to the fight that I want to talk about. The first thing I want to talk about is Chimaev's size advantage. Gilbert Burns is a guy who came up to welterweight from lightweight, while Khamzat is a guy who has to really work to cut and will probably fight at middleweight at some point in his career (some point more permanently as he's already appeared there before). I want to see how this size dynamic plays out through the entire fight. In the early going, this will favor Khamzat and he'll have the additional weight after rehydrating that will only help him if he is on top. The extra strength and size will help him in the wrestling and the clinch in the early part of the fight. At some point, this will eventually start to work against Chimaev as he will tire faster in all likelihood. This ties in with my next key point, which is Gilbert's ability to extend the fight. I believe that the longer this fight goes, the more it favors Burns. As the smaller guy, Burns should have better cardio, as long as he doesn't empty the tank in the early going again. On top of that, Burns has more experience going deeper into fights against these high level opponents. Gilbert Burns has stood across the cage from legends of the sport like Kamaru Usman, Damien Maia, and Tyron Woodley. With all due respect, Li Jingliang doesn't bring the same level of cache and hype as those guys. This is a huge moment for Khamzat and I'm not implying that I believe the moment will get to him because I have no idea, but we have all of these unknowns with Khamzat and that isn't one to overlook and completely dismiss. Gilbert Burns needs to push Khamzat early. He needs to find a way to strike the balance of pushing the pace without being reckless. We've seen Khamzat knock people out with a single punch and finish others after a single takedown. If Burns rushes in, he could find himself in trouble. However, if he can force Khamzat to fight at an elevated pace, it could really pay dividends in the latter portion of the fight. Even if Burns gets taken down early, if he can force Khamzat to work and keep pushing to get back up, I think that will serve him well. What he can't afford to do is just lay on his back and play the jiu-jitsu game. That will allow Khamzat to pace himself and keep some gas in the reserves for the rest of the fight. The next point that I want to make is something that I feel like I've said a million times recently and that's what Khamzat looks like when the fight isn't going his way. I said this about Tom Aspinall most recently, but there's definitely been some others that I can't think of at the moment. We know how good Khamzat is when he's imposing his will on his opponent and the fight is going the way he wants it to. However, we have no idea how he responds to resistance and what a competitive Khamzat fight looks like. In every fight he's in, Khamzat has immediately taken the momentum and gets the fight rolling down hill in his favor and it has never diverged from that path. At some point, whether it happens against Gilbert Burns or not, Khamzat is going to be met with some level of adversity and he's going to have to respond to that. We've really never even seen Khamzat get hit before. Burns has very real power and Khamzat will probably have to take at least some damage from him. We've seen how Khamzat can have a fight snowball in his favor, but we're going to need to see him prevent a fight from snowballing against him if Burns or someone else can have the fight start to go their way. The final key that I want to discuss is the striking. Both men come into this fight having their strengths in the grappling department. If this fight goes for any extended period of time, there is going to be moments where this fight plays out in the standup. We know Burns can stand and strike to a certain degree, but we don't know how Khamzat looks in those situations. If Burns can dominate those exchanges, then that will create a dynamic where Khamzat has to get takedowns. If they're much more even on the feet then that will create a crazy back and forth fight. The last little thing is the obvious one that I sort of glossed over earlier, but Burns can't just lay on his back. He either has to stop the takedowns or be able to get back up. If he's just fighting off his back trying to throw up armbars and triangles, even if it goes to decision, he's not going to get the win.
I think that is it from me on this one. I haven't done one this long in awhile and it's already late. I have to get started on the Aljo and Petr Yan one for tomorrow. What do you guys think? Who do you expect to get the win? What are your keys to victory for both sides? Leave any and all thoughts in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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