This Saturday's UFC card may not be the most interesting card of the year, but I am looking forward to it nonetheless. Call me a UFC apologist if you must, but any weekend with fights is a good weekend in my book. The main event that has so many underwhelmed is the rare women's main event and it will be in the strawweight division. Strawweight is probably the strongest women's weight class in the UFC right now and Saturday's main event serves as a title eliminator fight of sorts. Lemos comes into the fight ranked 10 and that honestly seems a bit low, but I'm not someone who really parses the rankings to a huge degree. Andrade is the more well known of the two and she is making her return to strawweight after making a brief run at flyweight. She's currently ranked 1 at 125 lbs, but I imagine that she would slot somewhere between 3 and 5 if she were placed back into the strawweight rankings. The winner of this fight is one step closer to a title shot and probably isn't too far off, depending on how active the champion is.
Because she isn't ranked in this division, I think that means that Jessica Andrade will be the blue corner for this fight. Andrade is returning to strawweight after a three fight move to flyweight. She's probably been in the UFC longer than you remember as her promotional debut came back in 2013 against Liz Carmouche. The early part of her UFC tenure followed a pattern of 2-3 wins before losing. She made her strawweight debut in 2016 and went on a three fight winning streak that saw her challenge for Joanna Jedrzejczyk's title. She would lose that fight by decision, but then go on another three fight winning streak against Claudia Gadelha, Tecia Torres, Karolina Kowalkiewicz. This got her to her second title shot against Rose Namajunas, which she would win via a slam knockout. She would lose her first title defense to Zhang Weili and then a split decision to Rose in their rematch before moving up to flyweight. She knocked out Katlyn Chookagian with a body shot and that was enough for her to get a flyweight title shot against Valentina Shevchenko. She was finished by Valentina in the second round of that fight. Her last fight was her last at flyweight for the time being when she knocked out Cynthia Calvillo late in the first round. That fight was in September, so it has been awhile since we've seen Andrade, but knowing that she was moving back to strawweight, that makes a bit more sense. Jessica Andrade is known for her physically imposing style. She's not very tall, but she's very muscular and strong. She likes to come forward and force her opponent into the type of fight where her physical advantages can shine. She throws a lot of big, power strikes where she can either do damage with them to get knockouts or use them to push her opponent backwards until they're against the cage. Once she has her opponent backed up, she likes to get them into the clinch and work for takedowns. Andrade's takedown game does rely on her impressive physical strength, but that isn't to say that she doesn't have the technique required to fight at a high level. That goes for her whole style in general. She does rely more on her strength and power than technical ability, but that technicality is there enough to allow her to get to the positions she wants. Andrade's weaknesses are largely due to that technical disadvantage that she faces at the highest level. She's plenty good enough to dominate lower level opponents and even fighters inside the top 10. At the absolute highest level, she is typically at a technical disadvantage that sometimes is difficult for her to overcome. This pairs with her size disadvantage that is typically quite noticeable. It isn't often that you see a fighter move down a weight class and still be small for the division, but that is what we see with Andrade. Her height and reach is going to be a problem in most fights and that is no different in this one. By now, she's used to it, but it will still be something to watch. Despite her weaknesses and disadvantages, Jessica Andrade is a former champion for a reason, so don't rule her out against anyone.
Amanda Lemos is much earlier on in her career and is in the midst of her first real push towards the top. This will be her 14th career professional fight and her 7th in the UFC. She comes into this 11-1 overall with 1 draw. Her only loss came in her UFC debut when she was knocked out by Leslie Smith. She's won her last five in a row now even though her level of competition hadn't been that high until her last fight against Angela Hill. That fight ended with a bit of controversy as a lot of people scored the split decision in favor of Hill, but the judges saw it differently. Lemos got off to a great start in that fight, but she started to gas out towards the middle part of the fight and Hill really took over late. Since Lemos has a more limited resume, we'll just get right into her style. Lemos is known for her ability to finish fights, typically on the feet. The power she has in her hands really stands out, especially in a weight class that isn't known for powerful strikers. Of her eleven career wins, nine of them have come by finish with seven of those by knockout. While Lemos is known for her striking ability, she is a really solid all around fighter. Her grappling isn't the highest level you'll ever see, but it is more than enough to keep her opponent honest. She averages over a takedown per 15 minutes and is landing them at over a 50% success rate. She also does a good job staying off her back with an 87% takedown defense. She does have a couple of submissions on her resume, I wouldn't look for that to be something to significantly alter how this fight plays out. The main weakness that I need to see addressed in this fight for Lemos is her cardio. She gassed out badly against Angela Hill and while Hill is known for her ability to push a pace, that is a big concern. She started to fade in the early part of the second round and seemed severely limited as the round went on. By the time she got into the third, she basically had nothing left. This fight has the potential to go an additional two rounds, which should've been a huge concern for her team all camp. I have to assume that is something they stressed for the training camp and they pushed her as hard as they could to have her in the best possible condition. I will also assume that they tried to have her work on a style that will try to extend her cardio as long as they can. I think saying anymore will put us right into the keys to the fight section so lets just go there now.
The main key is what I was just touching on. Amanda Lemos needed to work on her cardio over the camp and needs to find a way to preserve her energy as much as possible. The easiest way to do so is to find an early finish and Andrade has been finished her fair share of times. I wouldn't go as far as to say that she's chinny, but she is definitely there to be hit. I didn't talk about it in her section, but Andrade's style doesn't really lend itself to limiting damage. She's going to put her head down and come forward and will walk through the damage to do what she wants. With someone as powerful as Lemos, that could present some issues. She is definitely not an ordinary strawweight and possesses serious power. However, if Andrade can weather the early storm and get out of the first round, her chances exponentially increase. Lemos needs to get respect from Andrade early on. If she isn't going to get that early knockout, she needs to at least force Andrade to respect her and keep her at a distance to some degree. If Andrade feels that she can just walk through all of Lemos's power shots without issue, Lemos is going to be in trouble. Andrade won't be afraid and will walk her down all night. I don't think one camp is enough to be able to improve her cardio to that degree. She was struggling after 5 minutes and was almost completely gassed after 8 against Hill and while she might be able to extend that slightly, I don't think a single camp is enough to just be ready to go full speed for five rounds on the back foot. Lemos has to find a way to go forward and keep Andrade off of her. As long as Andrade doesn't get finished in the first round, I think this matchup favors her, but she does need to be careful. She has a tendency to get reckless when she's moving forward and that will get her caught. Lemos is too technical of a striker and is too fast and powerful to just wing shots wildly. If that is Andrade's plan, she is going to have to absorb some serious shots right on the chin. Andrade needs to push Lemos back and put the pressure on her, but she has to be a little more calculated in the strikes she throws. It is one thing to take clean shots from Rose Namajunas, but it is a completely different thing to take those same shots from Lemos. Beyond that, I think Andrade needs to do a lot of clinch work early. In my estimation, that is the safest and easiest way to deplete Lemos's gas tank. She will have to be careful when clinching in space as Lemos has shown to have good knee strikes at times, but if Andrade can clinch her against the cage, I think that will do wonders for her. Forcing Lemos to work and dig for under hooks over and over will push the pace Andrade wants without putting her in the same danger as having to box with Lemos would. Andrade isn't necessarily a cardio monster, but she should have the advantage here. While Lemos is a more than competent grappler, she wants the fight to take place on the feet and at range. She needs to stop Andrade's takedowns, especially early, in order to achieve that. If she can stuff a few early takedowns, I think that may be enough to discourage Andrade from shooting later on. To summarize, I think they biggest key to this fight will be Andrade's ability to force a pace on this fight. If she can get in Lemos's face, push her back, clinch, and work for takedowns like she does to almost everyone, then she just has to avoid that early knockout. If Lemos doesn't get the early finish, she will have to find a way to keep Andrade at range. She will either have to earn the respect with her power or use her movement and footwork to avoid all of that, similar to what Belal Muhammad did with Luque's pressure last week. Unfortunately for her, I don't think Lemos has the cardio that Belal does and won't be able to move like that for all five rounds without tiring out. I would favor Lemos early, but with each passing round, this fight swings more and more in Andrade's favor.
What do you guys think? Who are you picking to win the fight? What are your keys to success? Leave your thoughts and predictions below. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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