It's that time of the week again and this card should be a little better than last week's in my estimation. Hopefully there's no more nonsense with eye pokes, illegal knees, DQ's, and technical decisions that sort of suck the air out of the event like has happened during the last two weeks. This main event feels a little bit bigger as well. Rob Font comes into this fight ranked 5th and Vera is 8th in the bantamweight division. I'm looking forward to this fight because I think the style matchup should deliver not only a competitive fight, but one that is exciting to watch. Belal vs Luque a couple of weeks ago wasn't the most exciting from an entertainment standpoint and last week's didn't last very long, so there wasn't much to really get into before it was already over. This could potentially be Marlon "Chito" Vera's route into the top 5 towards a potential title shot and serves as a chance for Rob Font to bounce back after his first loss in little while. That is enough for me to buy in and I'm excited to watch it play out.
Chito Vera will be in the blue corner for this one and being the underdog has sort of just become a way of life for him at this point. This is without a doubt the best stretch of his UFC career to date, which started back in November of 2014 at UFC 180. He got off to a rocky start by losing 2 of his first 3, but was able to win 3 in a row to preserve his spot on the UFC roster. Wins over Brad Pickett and Brian Kelleher were very solid names to have on his resume at the time. He lost his next 2 against John Lineker and Douglas Silva de Andrade, but then went on a 4 fight win streak that included a win over Andre Ewell. He then lost a decision to Song Yadong before picking up the biggest win of his career in an upset over rising prospect Sean O'Malley. After taking O'Malley's 0, the UFC has really given him a huge push and he immediately got a fight with Jose Aldo. In retrospect, losing to Yadong, then beating O'Malley, to going right into Aldo seems like they rushed him a little bit. They wanted to capitalize on Chito beating one of their most talked about fighters, but going all the way to Aldo was just a little too much too soon as Chito would lose that fight pretty noticeably. Then after that one loss, they had him fight Davey Grant in a rematch of their fight from 2016, which Chito would win by decision. I'm not sure why they've been so inconsistent with Chito's booking. He fights Andre Ewell, then Song Yadong, Sean O'Malley, Jose Aldo, Davey Grant, then Frankie Edgar. They were so quick to rush him into a big fight after he upset O'Malley, then he loses one fight to Aldo and he fights Davey Grant next? Just looking back on this, it seems a little too reactionary, but it is what it is now. His last fight was that win over Frankie Edgar in a fight that was pretty close up until Chito finished it with a front kick to the face that knocked Edgar out. The UFC is still trying to push Chito after the O'Malley win and he's being rewarded with a main event. Vera is a fairly well rounded fighter, but he typically opts to keep things on the feet. The strength of his game is how balanced he is. He doesn't rely on any single technique or style of fight in order to win. I think he's found a good balance of being able to strike with power and with volume. He isn't taking too much steam off of his punches in order to maintain cardio, but he isn't loading up and winging huge punches that will deplete his cardio either. He also mixes in his kicks very well to all three levels. He will throw his kicks to the legs, the body, and the head to keep his opponent honest. He can honestly throw any strike at any time and it keeps him unpredictable. He will use punches, kicks, elbows, and knees all with enough variation that his opponents can never feel truly comfortable. Vera also has some pretty slick BJJ. He isn't really known or thought of as a submission artist, but he has his fair share of submission wins in his career. He averages over 1 submission attempt per 15 minutes as well, so he's not afraid to jump on the neck or an armbar if the opportunity presents itself. That will take us into Chito's first weakness, which is his offensive wrestling. While Chito is very dangerous on the ground and even off his back, he isn't particularly great or efficient at actually getting the fight down. He averages only 0.82 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 42% success rate. He does maintain a really solid 69% takedown defense though, so he typically isn't giving up a ton of control time either. The other main weakness in Chito's game is his striking defense. He's not horrible by percentage, but he absorbs a little too much damage. On a per minute basis, he absorbs more strikes than he lands. It isn't by much, but I think cleaning up that area of his games would help Chito in some of those close decision losses. The final thing to mention is Chito's cardio, which is in a good spot. Having poor cardio is probably the easiest way to lose a fight in the smaller divisions and that won't be an issue for Vera. I don't think his cardio is enough to really be a weapon, but it is nowhere near an issue either.
Rob Font comes into this fight ranked maybe a bit higher than people will realize. He was recently as little as a win away from a potential title shot if a few things would've went his way. Font also began his UFC career in 2014, but hasn't been nearly as active as Vera has been in that time. His career began much the same way as Chito's did. He would get a couple of wins and then a loss and sort of struggled to really make those big steps up. With that said, Font doesn't have any glaringly horrible losses on his record. His only UFC losses have come to John Lineker, Pedro Munhoz, Raphael Assuncao, and Jose Aldo. His latest run has gotten him into the top 5 of the division, where we currently stands. His consecutive wins over Sergio Pettis, Ricky Simon, Marlon Moraes, and Cody Garbrandt is a really solid streak. He lost his last fight to Jose Aldo and was exposed a bit in my opinion. He's going to have to bounce back, but I do like his skills quite a bit and he's the favorite here for a reason. Font relies heavily on his boxing and everything else is secondary to that. He throws extended combinations with really good hand speed. He will occasionally mix in some kicks, but not often enough to really make much of a difference. Font averages 1.10 takedowns per 15 minutes, which surprised me. He's never gotten more than 2 in a fight, but that is enough to at least keep his opponents honest at times. He doesn't get them with great efficiency, only 36% success rate, but he is persistent enough to end up getting some eventually. The weaknesses in Font's game all revolve around him being a bit more of a specialist than a well rounded fighter. To stay with his grappling for a moment, he doesn't have great takedown defense. At only 55% defense, he can definitely be taken down, but he usually does a solid job of getting up. In the Aldo fight, he ended up being stuck on the bottom for long stretches, which was a bit unusual. He was getting beat up pretty good, so maybe his energy and will to continue were just a bit zapped. What really stood out in that fight was the drastic difference in power. Font made Aldo look like Derrick Lewis with the difference in punching power. Font looked good early and was winning most rounds in volume, but then the power difference was so clear and Aldo was doing more damage. Aldo was dropping and hurting Font pretty consistently. What I saw in that fight is that Font is someone who can be gotten to. I won't go as far as to say that Aldo broke him because Font still kept fighting, but he was definitely discouraged and was a little more accepting of bad positions as the fight got later. Normally Font has pretty good cardio, but in that fight he looked really worn down. My concern is that Chito will be able to do the same and really force him into a dirtier fight than he wants. The fact that he just missed weight makes that even more of a concern for me. I'm just going to get into the keys to victory section before I go any farther.
On the surface, this seems like a fight that Rob Font should win. His boxing is the best overall skill that either fighter has in this contest. I know it was just one fight, but what I saw from Font in the Aldo fight does make me a bit nervous. Now, obviously, Chito Vera isn't Jose Aldo, but I think he could very well use the weaknesses that Aldo exposed and exploit them in his own way. The key for Chito will be to make this a true fight. If this is a clean boxing match at range, then Font is going to run away with it. Chito has to get the fight to look dirtier and have the fight in close quarters. He should look to clinch and maybe even take this fight to the ground if he can. I think the grappling in this fight is pretty even, but Font's takedown defense isn't great. Even if he gets back to his feet, I think forcing him to do so will wear on him and that will help Chito as the fight goes on. Chito also has to use his kicks in this one. When the fight is taking place in the striking, that is his biggest advantage. If Chito can damage the lead leg of Font with low kicks, that will limit his movement and quickness, making Font easier to hit. I didn't mention it above, but Font has pretty good striking defense for the most part. If Vera can slow him down and make him more stationary, that will make him a little more hittable. For Font, I think it is really important for him to get off to a good start. Chito is a notoriously slow starter and is almost guaranteed to lose the first round. If Font can take advantage of that, then he'll have the early momentum in his favor and start feeling good about himself. The hope is that he won't be tentative after losing and he'll be able to come out and start doing his thing from the start. His volume should be enough to win the first round as long as he doesn't get dropped. I think the biggest key to this fight will be who's cardio holds up the best. Font is going to win the first and will have a great chance to win the second, but he'll need to win one more to get the decision win. Chito will come on late, so his cardio needs to be in a good enough place to have his volume striking dominate. On the other side, if Vera is going to start slow again, he needs to have his cardio ready to overwhelm him late. He can't start slow and then just fight even the rest of the way. Whoever is going to strike with more volume in the second half of the fight is probably going to win this one. At least that's how I see it.
What do you guys think? What do you predict will happen? Do you like Font's boxing? Or Vera's overall MMA skillset? Leave your thoughts in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
Comments
Post a Comment