Given that there is no card this week, we don't have our normal previews and fallout posts, so we're getting creative with the topics. This is one that was in the news cycle a few weeks ago after Charles Oliveira defeated Justin Gaethje to become the number one contender for his belt after he was stripped due to missing weight. I don't think there's a ton of people who think Oliveira has passed Khabib yet and I think there's a heavy portion of the MMA world that would say that he probably never could. I think being one of those people who say someone could never be caught is a bit silly and that isn't a leap that I take very often. While Khabib is the pretty clear GOAT at 155 lbs right now, I certainly don't think his resume is bullet proof or unmatchable by any means. I'm just going to go through both of their resume's briefly and kind of give the main advantages that Khabib has and then go through the same with Charles. From there, I am going to try and dissect what Charles may have to do in order to catch and pass Khabib for division GOAT status.
We'll start with the easy stuff before we get into the more subjective topics. The first order of business is overall record, which obviously favors Khabib. Khabib finished his career a couple of years ago now at a record of 29-0. He finished 19 of those fights with 8 of those coming by knockout and the other 11 coming via submission. Charles Oliveira is currently sitting at a career record of 33-8 with 9 knockouts and 21 submissions. The undefeated nature of his record clearly favors Khabib with very little debate that could sway this portion of the conversation towards Oliveira. This can be expanded on though, which does make things a little more interesting.
Where this becomes a bit foggier is when the strength of schedule comes into play. Of his 29 career fights, Khabib fought 16 of those in Russia against some rather questionable competition. That still makes him 13-0 in the UFC though, which is nothing to sneeze at. Of those 13, Khabib finished 7 of them, including all 3 of his title defenses. In my opinion, Khabib has 6 wins that I would rate as being somewhat significant in terms of opponent. Those wins came against Rafael Dos Anjos, Edson Barboza, Al Iaquinta, Conor McGregor, Dustin Poirier, and Justin Gaethje. Charles Oliveira on the other hand is 21-8 in the UFC and has finished 19 of his 21 wins, which include both his title win and his only true defense. Oliveira's 6 best wins have come against Jim Miller, Kevin Lee, Tony Ferguson, Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier, and Justin Gaethje. Miller being the 6th best is potentially debatable and could be replaced with his win over Clay Guida or Jeremy Stephens, depending on your opinion of those fighters. Their top 6 fights are honestly pretty even and honestly their top 7 or 8 aren't too far off either. However, Oliveira does have those losses to consider and most of them aren't all that bad. His 8 career losses have come against Jim Miller, Cowboy Cerrone, Cub Swanson, Frankie Edgar, Max Holloway, Anthony Pettis, Ricardo Lamas, and Paul Felder. No loss is a good one, but I don't think any of those losses should be considered embarrassing or anything like that. I think the crazy finishing rate for Oliveira does carry some weight though. This category brings perspective that I think benefits Oliveira more. I don't think it makes them even, but the pure amount of wins and how consistently is finishing those fights only helps Oliveira.
The next thing to do is go over their brief title reigns. Khabib won the title by beating Al Iaquinta, who took the fight on what was essentially 24 hours notice. Khabib won that fight by unanimous decision and then successfully defended his title three times. He defeated Conor McGregor in what was probably the biggest fight in the history of the sport and probably still holds that distinction. Khabib won that fight just after the midway point of the fourth round. His second defense was against Dustin Poirier in a fight that saw Khabib in a bit of trouble. Poirier had Khabib caught in a guillotine choke that was very tight for a moment. As you already know or could've guessed, Khabib escaped and ended up finding his own submission in the first half of the third round. His final title defense came against Justin Gaethje in a fight that many were pegging as Khabib's toughest matchup to date. Gaethje fought him well in the early going, but was taken down to end the first round and then again early in the second. Khabib was able to lock in a triangle early in the second round and put Gaethje to sleep for the win. Khabib would walk away from the sport following the fight citing the loss of his father and promise he made to his mother as the reasons. Charles Oliveira has had a similarly short history with the title and his has gotten a bit weird recently. He first won the vacant title by beating Michael Chandler by a knockout early in the second round. His first and only defense came against Dustin Poirier where we saw Oliveira jump Poirier's back and get the rear naked choke in the early stages of the third round. Oliveira did have what I'll call half a title defense against Justin Gaethje. Oliveira missed weight, which caused him to be stripped of the title and made the fight a title bout for Gaethje, but only a number one contenders fight for Oliveira. Oliveira was able to get a knockout and jump on the submission in the back half of the first round to earn another chance at the belt, whenever that fight takes place. I'm not really sure who has an edge in this category. I probably lean Khabib here slightly just because he has one extra win. They have both Poirier and Gaethje in common and Oliveira finished both of them faster though, so that is at least something. I think the McGregor fight for Khabib and the Chandler fight for Oliveira are probably pretty similar. I would say that version of Conor and that version of Chandler are fairly even. I might even give the slight edge to Conor as I thought he was in some of the best physical condition of his career for that fight.
The second to last category is probably the best for Oliveira and that is the records and other superlatives. We'll start with Khabib since his list is a bit shorter. He has the longest title run in lightweight history by total days at 1077, but there was only 3 defenses in that time, so that has a bit of a caveat. Khabib holds the record for most takedowns in a single fight with an insane 21 takedowns in his fight against Abel Trujillo. He is also tied for the most total title defenses and most consecutive title defenses in lightweight history at 3 with BJ Penn, Frankie Edgar, and Benson Henderson. He has the most wins in lightweight title fights and the most submissions in lightweight title fights with 4 wins and 3 submissions. Khabib has the most consecutive wins in lightweight history with 13. The final thing to mention for him is that he is tied for the second most submission wins in title fights across all divisions with 3 (tied with Jon Jones, Ronda Rousey, Matt Hughes, and BJ Penn). This is where Oliveira's longer history in the UFC and his consistent activity really give him an advantage. Oliveira has the most finishes in UFC history with 19 and the most submissions in UFC history with 16. He also holds the all time submission record for two different divisions. He has the most featherweight submissions at 6 and the most lightweight submissions with 10. He's tied with Cowboy Cerrone for the most bonuses with 18 and has the most performance of the night bonuses in UFC history with 12. He also has the third longest win streak in lightweight history with 11 and he has the 4th most wins in the history of the UFC. I think Oliveira has a pretty clear edge with all of these records that he already holds and he's still building his resume. He is well on his way to potentially have the most finishes, submissions, and wins in the history of the entire promotion. That would be a sensational triple crown to end his career with if he can. I think this is the category that could really hold the key to Oliveira passing Khabib one day.
The final section to go through is going to be a bit of a short one because it is hard to articulate. That is the eye test. Some people will just never be able to get over how Khabib looked in the cage. He was just so dominant that there's really no stat that can tell the whole story. Everyone in the entire arena and watching at home knew what Khabib's plan was and he came out and executed every single time. He was going to come out, walk you down, grab you, drag you to the ground, and then beat the breaks off of you. The visual of him doing almost the same exact thing to every single one of his opponents is almost comical at times. Khabib made other professional mixed martial artists, who were some of the best fighters in the entire world look like they were beginners. Forget Khabib losing a fight. It was almost headline news when he lost a round. The pure dominance with which he operated so consistently is one of the most impressive things I've seen across all sports. Charles Oliveira, on the other hand, hasn't done it nearly as cleanly. A lot of Oliveira's wins, especially of late, have been sort of back and forth battles. Oliveira ends up getting hit quite a bit and a lot of the time, he ends up getting dropped and going to the floor. If not that, he ends up cut and bleeding. Despite the damage he's taken, he finds a way to battle back and eventually find the finish and get the win. While it is much more exciting than a lot of Khabib's wins, they're not as clean or as dominant, which is going to be a hard thing to get over for a lot of people. There is another aspect of the eye test though and that is the well roundedness of their games. Khabib is the better grappler and is a better wrestler by lightyears, but Charles Oliveira has some of, if not the best, BJJ in the history of the sport. I also think Oliveira is a noticeably cleaner and better striker than Khabib. Khabib may have an edge in pure power, but Oliveira is clearly more technical and diverse on the feet. I would love if there was some way that we could get Khabib out of retirement to fight Charles because that fight would be a spectacle. I think I might pay a double PPV price to see that fight.
So, the real question here is, what would Charles have to do in order to pass Khabib? Some people will just never be able to get the visual of Khabib dominating his opponents and the undefeated record out of their heads and I do think that is somewhat reasonable. However, I don't think that prevents Charles from catching him. The first thing that Oliveira is going to have to do is beat Islam Makhachev. Makhachev isn't Khabib, but he's probably the closest thing we have right now. If Oliveira loses to a slightly worse version of Khabib, then that will really halt a lot of momentum that he has towards this argument. A win would set him up to potentially make this really interesting. Charles Oliveira is on a pace where he could hold a vast majority of the records at lightweight and a nice share of UFC records if he wins that fight. Should he defeat Islam, that would put him in a position to potentially tie a lot of Khabib's records when it comes to holding the belt. If he could tie or surpass Khabib's consecutive wins mark and tie or surpass his title defense records, I think things could get really interesting. Obviously that is going to be a tall task. He will have to defeat Islam for the title and then wrack up another few defenses (at least 3 consecutive to tie that record) in order to do it though, which is much easier said than done. If Oliveira could somehow win another 5 fights in a row, he would probably hold almost all of the records I mentioned in this post. I'm not sure exactly what that path would look like though. He will definitely need to go through Islam at least once, potentially twice. Other fights could be rematches with Chandler and Poirier, the McGregor fight, and Beneil Dariush. There's also some younger contenders who may rise to the level of a title shot within the next year or two like Arman Tsarukyan, Rafael Fiziev, and Mateusz Gamrot. Don't rule out a veteran like Rafael Dos Anjos either. Even if he could get past Islam, beating 4 of the other 8 in consecutive fights is going to be a really tough ask, but that is what separates him from GOAT status. Even he won 5 more in a row against the 9 fighters I have listed here, I really think he would probably pass Khabib at that point. He would have Khabib's strength of schedule and longevity blown out of the water at that point and would hold so many important records. He will have the most finishes in UFC history, the most submissions in UFC history, the most submissions in both featherweight and lightweight history, the most total lightweight title defenses, most consecutive lightweight title defenses, most wins in lightweight title fights, and most consecutive wins in lightweight history. To go along with that, he will also probably have the most bonuses in UFC history, most submissions in lightweight title fights, and most submissions in title fights across all divisions. To me, having all of those records would probably be enough to surpass Khabib just based on the sheer volume of accomplishments. To some though, these records may be arbitrary or just not all that meaningful, which is ok. In order to separate himself, he may need to do things Khabib never even tried to do or got the opportunity to do. The things that come to mind would be stopping someone trying to become double champion and becoming a double champion himself. A win over Alex Volkanovski would be a huge win for Oliveria in my book. I know some people would dismiss it as just beating someone from the weight class down, but Volk is a fantastic fighter. He's one of, if not the best, in the entire UFC in my mind. If Oliveira were to beat him, that would carry a lot of weight to me. The final thing that would be a serious feather in Oliveira's cap would be gaining double champ status himself. That is really the only thing missing from Khabib's overall GOAT resume, along with the longevity. If Oliveira went up and was able to win the welterweight title, I think that would get a lot of people talking, If he were able to get that win over Kamaru Usman, I think that may solidify Oliveira as lightweight GOAT. Kamaru Usman is the other guy who's in the conversation as the pound for pound king with Volkanovski and if Oliveira were to beat one or both of them, that would put the nail in the coffin in my opinion.
Overall, I think Khabib is still the lightweight GOAT and I think his lead is still pretty safe. However, I think Oliveira is in the rear view mirror and he's closer than we may see anyone get for a long time. In terms of when I think this conversation would get really serious? Maybe by the end of 2023. If Oliveira fights Islam in December, which is what he said he wanted, he would obviously have to win that. From there, maybe he could get 2 or 3 defenses in 2023, depending on the exact timeline of things. I think at that point, were he to win those 2 or 3 defenses, we would be having real conversations. That would set him up to need 1 or 2 more wins in 2024 to get to that 5 total wins I mentioned above. He probably would have gone through Volkanovski by then, assuming he gets the win over Max this summer as well. I think he would probably be in line for his own chance at double champ status in 2024 if he won all of those fights between now and then. Of course, that isn't easy and it is going to take a lot to get to that point, but no one said passing Khabib would be easy. It is going to take something close to super human efforts, but Oliveira has looked every bit of that over the last few years.
What do you guys think? Can Charles pass Khabib? If not, why not? If so, what would it take? What kind of timeline do you think he could do it on? What is the biggest box that he needs to check off? Leave your thoughts and comments below. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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