Finally, we've made it to UFC 274 fight week and man is it welcome. I'm excited to sit down and watch an event where I actually care about more than the main event. It has felt like forever since we've gotten a PPV card and this one should be a pretty good one. It has a lot of fights on it for now, we'll see if it stays that way after weigh ins, but if it does, that is exactly what I'm looking for. I want a nice, long night of fights because I feel like we haven't gotten that in a minute. The first fight that I'm going to preview will be the third to last fight of the night and will take place in the lightweight division. We'll see two men who are looking to get back on track after some tough losses in Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson. Both have fallen on some hard times in the cage and a win over the other would go a long way towards starting another journey towards a title shot.
The blue corner in this one will be Tony Ferguson, so we'll start with him. Ferguson is one of the more well known fighters in the UFC and one of the most popular as well. He has endeared himself with the fanbase by being unapologetically himself. He has a quirky personality that has led to some odd, but funny moments at press conferences and weigh ins. Most importantly, at least from a fan perspective, he is an absolute wild man who embraces all out wars. He's found a balance between crazy, flashy strikes and insane cardio and pace that make him one of the more unique fighters the UFC has ever seen. Tony's official UFC debut came in 2011 when he won season 13 of The Ultimate Fighter as a welterweight. He would immediately drop down to lightweight and pick up a couple of wins before losing a decision to Michael Johnson. Ferguson then went on one of the craziest winning streaks in UFC history. He would win 12 fights in a row that included wins over Gleison Tibau, Josh Thomson, Edson Barboza, Rafael Dos Anjos, Kevin Lee (for the interim championship), Anthony Pettis, and Cowboy Cerrone. Unfortunately, Tony never got a chance to unify his interim title as both he and Khabib Nurmagomedov would sustain injuries that never saw them fight despite numerous attempts to book that matchup. After the final attempt to book Tony vs Khabib fell through because Khabib couldn't travel out of Russia due to travel restrictions because of the COVID-19 pandemic, an interim title fight was booked between Ferguson and Justin Gaethje. Ferguson came into that fight the favorite and his winning streak was brought to an end in impressive fashion. Gaethje turned in the best performance of his career and putting a beating on Ferguson that most didn't event think was possible. The fight would be stopped in the fifth and Gaethje became interim champion. Tony has fought twice since and hasn't quite looked like his old self. He would lose decisions to future champion Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush in fights that saw him get controlled on the ground in dominant fashion. Stylistically, Tony has been a tough matchup for a lot of fighters for a long time. His cardio and willingness to take damage in order to deliver his own has seen a lot of opponents collapse under the pressure. Tony doesn't have particularly huge power in his hands, but he throws with tremendous volume. He is also known for having really good elbows as well. He will throw them both standing and off of his back. For whatever reason, he has a knack for being able to cut his opponents open with those elbows at what seems like a higher rate than the average fighter. He isn't just a boxer either as he does a solid job of mixing in kicks and knees as well, but those are secondary options for him. He mostly sticks with punches and elbows as the bread and butter of his striking. What took Tony from just a good, fun fighter to interim champion is that he is a very solid grappler as well. He has a bit of a signature submission in the form of the D'arce choke, which he's used to finish 3 fights. His submission game is a good one in general, whether he is in top position or fighting off of his back. He's a true finisher in general as 20 of his 25 career wins have come inside the distance with 12 knockouts and 8 submissions. He's only been finished twice himself. The first came very early in his career when Jamie Toney caught him in a triangle choke and then the TKO to Gaethje that started his current slide. The only weakness in Tony's game historically is his wrestling ability. He doesn't get many takedowns of his own, which limits his top control time. Ferguson has solid takedown defense, so that generally hasn't been too much of an issue by and large. The other sort of weakness is that Tony has such a high opinion of and belief in his BJJ that he is a bit content to stay on his back at times, but it hasn't really hurt him too much over the aggregate. Much more recently however he just hasn't looked quite the same. He suddenly looks like his age and all of that damage may be catching up with him a bit. It seems as though his cardio may be regressing back to the pack a bit and he's not quite as dangerous as he's been in years past. Watching Tony being controlled for long stretches of time just isn't something I thought I would ever see. Having seen it for two fights in a row, I'm not sure why he is prone to that or how he got there now. I'm not going to write Tony off just yet, but I definitely want to see a more inspired and vintage performance from him this time out. Even if he loses this fight, I want to see a better version of Tony than the one we've gotten the last couple of fights. It is worth nothing that on top of all of the damage he's taken in his career, even in all of the wins, Tony has had some injury problems that may be causing him some issues as well. He had the knee injury that forced him out of one of the scheduled Khabib fights. He then sustained a ton of damage against Gaethje. I'm not really someone who thinks there's fighters out there who change people, but that is the kind of fight and sustained damage that could really leave someone a different athlete after. He then got stuck in that ugly looking arm bar against Oliveira that had to damage the ligaments to some degree. He had to be only a few seconds from having his arm broken or elbow dislocated in that one. Of course, Tony is too tough for his own good and fought the remaining rounds, but he had to be compromised and who knows what the actual injuries were after the fact. Then in the Dariush fight he was stuck in a heel hook where Beneil has said multiple times that there was a pop, which Tony denies. I see no reason for Beneil to make that up as he already won, so it doesn't really matter whether that submission hurt Tony or not. Even if the ligaments didn't pop, there had to be some damage done that limited Tony the rest of the way. The hope is that he is actually recovered from all of these potential ailments and is truly ready to go.
The red corner will feature former Bellator lightweight champion Michael Chandler. Chandler will be in only his fourth UFC appearance, but he's built up quite the reputation in that short amount of time. Chandler made his name in Bellator where he won their lightweight title three different times. That first win came back in 2011 against Eddie Alvarez in a fight that he won via rear naked choke. After a few successful defenses, he would lose the belt to Alvarez by split decision. He fought Will Brooks for the interim title and vacant title back to back appearances in 2014 and lost both fights, the first by split decision and the second by TKO. After that three fight losing streak, he was able to string together a couple of wins and earned a title shot against Patricky Pitbull, which he would win by knockout. After a successful defense against Benson Henderson, Chandler would drop his title to Brent Primus. After another couple of wins, Chandler would challenge Primus for his title and pick up the win this time via unanimous decision. He would drop the title to Patricio Pitbull in his very next fight. He would finish his Bellator career with wins over Sidney Outlaw and Benson Henderson before making the jump to the UFC. He got the knockout win over Dan Hooker in his UFC debut in the co main event of the second Poirier vs McGregor card and that propelled him into a UFC title fight in his next appearance. Early in that fight against Charles Oliveira, it looked like Chandler was going to successfully capture UFC gold, but Oliveira turned the tide and got the knockout win in the second round. Chandler fought title challenger Justin Gaethje in his last fight, which was my fight of the year in 2021. Chandler had his moments in that fight, but it was a pretty clear win for Gaethje in my eyes. That brings us to today and while I think Chandler's stock has largely gone up in his time with the UFC, he's coming off of consecutive losses and is at risk for three in a row against a tough Tony Ferguson. Stylistically, Chandler relies on his incredible explosiveness and athleticism. He comes from a wrestling background and I would feel much more comfortable calling him a wrestler over a striker, but he is very well rounded. Chandler is a bit short for the weight class, but his reach isn't usually too much of a disadvantage. That has often led to Chandler being the one going forward in order to get to a range where he can either strike or wrestle. Chandler hasn't done nearly as much wrestling in his UFC career as he did in the early stages of his Bellator run and that probably has a lot to do with his increasing comfort in the striking realm. My guess is that we will see Chandler be a little more willing to wrestle against Ferguson than he was against Oliveira or even Gaethje. On the feet, Chandler is a bit wild and unrefined. He doesn't strike with great technical boxing or muay thai, but he is certainly powerful. Chandler opts to throw more looping punches and hooks than any straight shots, but he puts all of his power into those shots. If one connects, it is going to do damage. He will throw leg kicks as well and with significant power. Kicks are always a bit dangerous for Chandler because of his size disadvantage, but I expect that we'll see some from him against Ferguson. The weaknesses for Chandler come with those looping strikes. If someone is really committed to throwing quick and straight shots, they can beat Chandler to the chin because those hooks take longer to find the mark. That brings us to the next point about Chandler, which is his chin. I can't say he has a weak chin because that isn't exactly true, but he can be caught at times. He can be kncoked out at times against guys like Charles Oliveira, but then he can stand with Justin Gaethje for 15 minutes, so his chin is just a bit unpredictable. He's never been submitted though, which is something to watch. Michael Chandler still isn't too far away from a title shot, but he has to turn it around rather quickly.
The biggest key to victory in this one will be which version of Tony Ferguson we're getting. If we're getting the Tony Ferguson that fought against Dariush and Oliveira, I don't think Saturday will end well for him. I think Chandler is a better pure wrestler than either of those two, so if it is indeed that version of Tony, then Chandler would like be able to control him for long stretches if he chose to. If this is something closer to the older version of Tony Ferguson, then this fight will be a lot more interesting. That version of Tony would be able to stay off the ground better, fight better off of his back, and get up a little more easily. That is the version of Tony that will need to show up for this fight. I hope that we get to see Tony strike and get a better feel for where that part of his game is at these days. His volume striking and willingness to throw straight punches in combinations would be an excellent counter to Chandler's striking style if he can still do it effectively. Despite Tony's willingness to walk through the fire at times, he has largely had good striking defense. He limits damage to some degree, absorbing only 3.78 strikes per minute and having a 59% defense. 3.78 isn't other worldly levels of striking defense, but it is pretty solid, especially considering how much Tony is throwing and some of the wars he's really been in. I didn't really bring it up too much in his section, but Chandler's striking defense hasn't been great since he joined the UFC and beyond. He is typically very hittable and as his chin has aged, he's found himself being finished at times that he may not have when he was younger. Tony has a style that could beat him in the striking when at his best, but we need to see a return to form from him. As for Michael Chandler, I think the key for him will be his mindset coming into this fight. It isn't often that I talk about the mental side of fighting because I have no experience or insight into that side of the sport, but with Chandler, it seems like he has two different styles of fighting. He has this mode where he fights to win at all costs and then he has this other side of him where he fights entertain, while also trying to win. Chandler isn't stupid and knows that a huge part of his payday comes from fans liking him and wanting to watch him fight. The general fanbase finds grappling to be less entertaining than striking, so he has transformed his style to be more and more striking heavy over the years. If Chandler is coming out to purely win this fight, he will test Tony's wrestling early, but if he is going to be more willing to stand and trade, then he's giving Tony a better chance to win. If Chandler comes in and is just fighting to win and that's it, then I think this is his fight to lose. However, getting into a standup war with Tony Ferguson, even if he's lost a step, is a dangerous proposition. When the fight is standing for whatever duration that is, Chandler has to resist the urge to throw huge strikes from out of range. Chandler will sometimes wing massive overhand punches in order to close the distance, but I think that would be a huge mistake here. Ferguson is plenty quick enough to be able to counter those and if he catches Chandler when he doesn't see it coming, that could be the end of his night. We saw how effective the leg kicks were for Justin Gaethje against Tony Ferguson, so I expect that Chandler will at least mix them in. They're not as natural to him as they are for Gaethje, so I don't know if he will really fire them off time after time for rounds on end, but they will be a good way to slow Tony down and limit his movement. Beyond that, I think the final key will be who can move forward in this one. I say that all the time, but in this fight, it will go a long way towards deciding the winner. If Chandler can go forward, he'll be able to transition between striking and wrestling much easier. That will also open up the leg kicks and help mitigate the reach disadvantage problems. On the other hand, if Tony is going forward, that will allow him to use his jab and keep the fight at a better range for him. It will also allow him to defend both strikes and takedown attempts slightly easier. Tony has to stay off of his back and being the one moving forward will go a long way towards making that a reality.
This one is pretty long and is coming out very late, but I lost power last night and couldn't work on it until I woke up. Then I woke up with a headache, so I've been slow to finish it. In any case, that is the preview for this one and I'm going right into the one for Rose vs Esparza, so that should come out at a much better time tomorrow. What do you guys think? Who do you like in this one? What are your predictions? What are your keys to victory? Leave your thoughts below. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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