For the first time in a few weeks, we have a Fight Night card that I think carries some intrigue throughout the entire card and not just for one fight here and there. At 11 fights, this is one of the smallest cards we've had in a minute, but I'm actually pretty interested in almost every single one. On top of that, this is the most meaningful Fight Night main event in awhile. This fight between former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz and title hopeful Aleksandar Rakic very well may represent the number one contender fight, especially for Rakic. A win in this one would all but cement his status as the next challenger for the belt after Glover Teixeira vs Jiri Prochazka goes down next month. If Blachowicz were to get the win, things would get a little more interesting with the winner of the rumored Magomed Ankalaev vs Anthony Smith fight factoring a little more heavily. Let's not get ahead of ourselves though. Let's go through this week's main event and see if we can get a clearer picture of what is happening.
The blue corner in this one will feature Aleksandar Rakic, who I'm a little surprised hasn't already gotten a title shot. He comes into this fight with an overall record of 14-2 with a UFC record of 6-1. Rakic lost the very first fight of his career via a guillotine and suffered his only other loss a few years ago by split decision to Volkan Oezdemir. He won his first 4 UFC fights against Francimar Barroso, Justin Ledet, Devin Clark, and Jimi Manuwa with the last two coming by finish. Next came the loss to Oezdemir, which is a really tough fight for only a fifth UFC appearance and he did some good things in that fight. He's bounced back with a really impressive win over Anthony Smith and then had a win over Thiago Santos in a really slow paced bout. I believe that had the Santos fight been a little more convincing or eventful, Rakic could have had his title shot after that fight, but it didn't work out that way. Stylistically, Rakic is sort of your stereotypical long kick boxer. Just because his style is one we've seen many times before doesn't make it any less effective though. Rakic is a very long and lean fighter for the weight class and typically will have a reach advantage, but will be equal with Blachowicz. He's also used to having a speed advantage, both in terms of hand speed and actual movement around the cage. He's one of the new aged fighters who has placed a heavy emphasis on low kicks and they've worked well for him, especially against Anthony Smith. He throws those kicks with some really nice power as well as quickness. My instinct is to say his kicks are slightly better than his hands, but it is pretty close as he's pretty well rounded in the striking department. He doesn't have outstanding power, but it is more than sufficient for the division. One of the biggest strengths that Rakic has is his defensive capabilities. He does a tremendous job of limiting damage on the feet as he absorbs only 2.23 strikes per minute. He uses range incredibly well and is able to land his own strikes and then slide just out of range when his opponent tries to throw back. His takedown defense has been just as good, sitting at 90% in his UFC career. We haven't seen a ton of Rakic on his back, but he does a great job of not having to worry about it. He hasn't been taken down since his UFC debut, so it is something that he has improved on over time. Rakic isn't a perfect fighter however and has some holes that could potentially be exploited. The first of which is a bit of speculation on my part, but I assume his ground game is probably a weak point. We haven't seen much of it, but I think if Jan could get on top of him, he would probably have a fair amount of success. Getting it down is a different story, but if the fight ends up there, Rakic will almost certainly be at a disadvantage. Rakic's other main weakness is his tendency to feel comfortable a little too quickly. His striking is typically so far ahead of his opponent's, that if he feels no threat of a takedown, he kind of starts to cruise a bit. A guy with his level of striking and power should have a much easier time finishing fights than what he's shown. I think he just feels so at ease striking with almost anyone that he doesn't feel urgency to try and put someone away. This sometimes leads him having a lower total strike output than you would like or expect. I think this is an especially dangerous strategy against Jan Blachowicz. A low output striking battle favors the fighter who can do more damage with those fewer strikes and that certainly is Jan in this case. Volume striking isn't necessarily a weakness for Rakic, but I feel like he has more to offer at times. Rakic is one of the cleanest kick boxers that 205 has to offer and he's the favorite in this fight for a reason. If this is a range kick boxing match, it should be to his advantage.
The red corner will feature the former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz in his first fight since losing his belt. Jan has been in the UFC a lot longer and it has been a much tougher road for him than Rakic's so far. He made his debut against Ilir Latifi in 2014 after he already had 20 professional fights. He struggled in the early going and lost 4 of his first 6 in the promotion. Losses to Jimi Manuwa, Corey Anderson, Alexander Gustafsson, and Pat Cummins aren't the worst losses in hindsight, but that many that quickly usually brings someone's time in the UFC to an end. Jan would go on to win his next 4 and 9 of his next 10 to really come into his own as he aged. He would defeat Devin Clark, Jared Cannonier, Jimi Manuwa, and Nikita Kyrlov before losing to Thiago Santos. He then beat Luke Rockhold, Jacare Souza, and Corey Anderson to earn a shot at the vacant light heavyweight title after Jon Jones left the division. He would defeat Dominick Reyes as a pretty heavy underdog to capture UFC gold. His first defense would be against middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, who was making an attempt to become double champ. Jan was able to use his wrestling to outlast Izzy in a fight that went to decision. His next defense would be his last as he was upset by the longtime UFC veteran Glover Teixeira who was able to become champion after a lifetime in the sport. We haven't seen him since, so it will be interesting to see how Jan looks early on and how he'll react to losing his title. Blachowicz has been around this sport a long time and has experienced the ups and downs as much as anyone. His style is a straight forward one and I think that really helps him steady the ship, no matter how turbulent his career or the fight itself gets. Jan uses a very patient style of striking where he comes forward slowly and waits for the opening to explode. He has excellent kicks that he can land from the outside and then works his way into the pocket to let his hands do the damage. His kicks are focused more to the legs and body than up high, but they're more to score points in his game than to really do the damage. The body kicks he landed against Dominick Reyes were especially impressive and certainly contributed to him finishing that fight later on. Blachowicz's calling card is his Legendary Polish Power in his hands. Jan is one of the most powerful punchers in the division, if not the top dog. He doesn't do anything wild or crazy, but when he connects, guys go down. His knockouts of Corey Anderson and Dominick Reyes really speak to his power, but there's another that is forever etched in my mind. The left hook he landed against Luke Rockhold is one of those knockouts that I'll never forget. It was so quick and it seemingly came out of nowhere and Rockhold was out in a devastating way. Unless Blachowicz has another crazy finish in him, I think that will be my clearest memory of Jan's career, even over his title win. Despite his striking background, Jan is actually a pretty solid wrestler as well. Believe it or not, he actually has more career wins by submission than he does knockout. I wouldn't exactly call him a submission threat, especially at the highest level in the rankings, but his wrestling could be a difference maker. There aren't a ton of pure wrestlers at 205 these days without Jon Jones, so that could really help Jan separate himself. He has a really good top game and will be able to control Rakic if he finds himself on top. He hits his takedowns at a 53% rate, which isn't too shabby. If there is a weakness in Jan's game, it is his activity levels. He fights at a fairly slow pace, which presents similar problems to what I just talked about with Rakic. The low output really creates situations with very little margin for error. So often, it is Jan that has the ability to do more damage with low amounts of strikes, but that is hard to rely on. The easiest way for Jan to lose this fight is if he is too patient and doesn't get his shots off. Rakic will be content to out point him if Jan allows him to, so he has to be aware of that. The main issue that Jan has run into historically is his inconsistent performances. Sometimes Jan will come out and look fantastic, while other times he is just ok. Other times, he won't look like himself at all, which is the version of him I saw against Glover. It is hard to really pinpoint a reason for this as well because Jan seems like a pretty level-headed guy who just sort of does his thing. He never has a problem with weight, so it can't be that. If anything, I suppose maybe Jan could be an overly chill person. He's a guy who largely has his priorities in order and doesn't necessarily live for fighting like some other fighters do. He has a wife and a child now as well, so maybe he just doesn't feel the need to take things super seriously all the time. There's nothing wrong with that, if that is even the case, it is just not the norm is all. That is all speculation of course, it is just the only thing I could even come up with in my mind for his up and down nature. He isn't an overly emotional guy who would have emotional highs and lows effecting his performance either. Maybe it is just one of those things. In any case, Jan Blachowicz is a really good fighter and he didn't become champion on accident. If Rakic doesn't take him seriously, Jan is plenty good enough to win this fight in a devastating way.
This fight feels like it has such a low margin for error. Both men feel so evenly matched that one moment or mistake could be enough to swing the entire fight in someone's favor. The first key is something I always talk about, which is who is the fighter moving forward, but this time it feels especially important. Whoever can be the one leading is going to be at a serious advantage in this one. In a fight that projects to be slower paced, volume will be at a premium. The fighter moving forward is going to have a much easier time throwing their strikes and landing them. It is always easier to throw kicks while moving forward as well, which will be important for both fighters when it comes to scoring points. This feels like a fight where someone might get too comfortable sitting and waiting for counters, which is a dangerous game to play. If they can find that counter, it could end the fight on the spot, but if it never comes, that is an easy way to lose a decision. Moving forward will also allow that fighter to control the grappling, which brings me to my next key, which is the wrestling of Jan Blachowicz. If Jan can use his wrestling and actually get the fight down, that will be huge for him. Not only would the control time be an easy way for him to win rounds, but it would present another issue for Rakic to worry about, which could open him up to be hit with those powerful hands. On the other side, if Rakic can stuff those takedowns and keep the fight standing, it keeps the fight where he wants it. Rakic is the more technical kick boxer and a fight at range probably favors him slightly. The last thing he needs is to be fighting off of his back or in the clinch. The final point I want to make is about the kicking battle. If this fight goes to decision, I think the kicks will be the deciding factor, unless Jan is getting the takedowns. Whoever does a better job of landing kicks will probably have the advantage on the scorecards in a standup fight. Rakic should look to blast the low kicks to limit Jan's push off into his takedown attempts and power strikes. On the other hand, Jan can use his body kicks to force Rakic into his power right hand. He did that so well against Reyes that I think he should try to employ a similar strategy here. Low kicks would also be a good strategy for him to use because he would be able to limit Rakic's movement later in the fight. A more stationary Rakic would be easier to hit and significantly increase Jan's chances of winning. No matter what, this fight feels like it is going to be a pretty good one. I don't think it will be super action packed, but it should be an interesting fight nonetheless.
What do you guys think? What are your predictions for the fight? What are your keys to victory? Leave your thoughts and comments below. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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