I'm not sure why, but if feels like it has been forever since UFC 274. It is exactly a month to the day that I'm writing this, but Oliveira vs Gaethje just feels so long ago. I'm excited to have another PPV card in front of us and we are getting three really big fights on this one. The first of which is a rematch of the best fight in the history of women's mixed martial arts and one of the best fights I have personally ever seen in real time. It may very well be impossible for this fight to live up to the first one, but I do expect that we'll see another great fight between these two. It is a bit of a different situation though, so maybe temper those expectations just a bit. These are both former champions, so I don't think the circumstances will effect them as much as they would lesser fighters. This is when the card will start to feel big and I can't wait for it.
I think Joanna will be the blue corner in this one, so we'll start with her. There was a time when Joanna Jedrzejczyk was considered the best fighter in women's MMA and was a potential candidate for the women's GOAT. She has since slid down the rankings as she's aged and her case for GOAT status has been passed up by multiple women since, but that doesn't take away from what she did in her absolute prime. Joanna made her UFC debut in 2014 and got off to a great start, winning her first 8 fights in the promotion. She defeated Carla Esparza for the championship in just her third fight and then successfully defended it against Jessica Penne, Valerie Letourneau, Claudia Gadelha, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, and Jessica Andrade. She then lost her title in surprising fashion when she was knocked out by Rose Namajunas in the first round at UFC 217. She got the immediate rematch and lost that as well, this time by decision. She would pick up a win over Tecia Torres and parlay that into a shot at the vacant flyweight title. She lost that fight to Valentina Shevchenko and we know how the division has looked ever since. She came back to strawweight and picked up a nice win over Michelle Waterson and got herself another title shot. That was the fight that you all remember against Zhang Weili, which she lost by split decision. After she got off to such an amazing start in her career, she's had an up and down last few years of her career. Of course, that first fight with Weili happened in 2020 and we haven't seen her since then, so the long layoff will play a factor to some degree. Before we get into that, let's talk about Joanna's style a bit. Joanna has always been a fan favorite due to her style both inside and outside of the cage. Joanna came up in an era where the press conferences and faceoffs were a bit more important and actually tried to sell the fight. Her willingness to talk trash and then back it up with exciting and dominant performances really endeared her to the fans at that time. Today, I think people care a lot less about that kind of thing, but she's already established her reputation and she's pretty well liked even with her time away. In the cage, Joanna uses an advanced kick boxing game and great volume striking to overwhelm most of her opponents. She doesn't have great power, but it is women's strawweight, so power isn't as important as it may be in other weight classes. Where she lacks in power on the feet, she makes up for with her combination of speed and technique. At her best, she was probably the most advanced striker in women's MMA. As she has aged and begun regressing towards the pack, those advantages have shrunk, but she is still phenomenal. She uses all of her strikes extremely well and throws them in combinations with a diversity that keeps her opponents guessing. She mixes in both punches and kicks really well and has no clear weak area on the feet. It is common that fighters who throw a lot of strikes also get hit a lot because they leave themselves open, but Joanna has done a great job of minimizing that. She throws a ton of strikes, but doesn't compromise her striking defense all that much. For someone who is so active on the feet, she doesn't take nearly as much damage as one would expect. That has really been what has gotten her so many wins. She's able to hit her opponents a lot and avoid getting hit herself. When she is at her best, her lack of power doesn't really matter because she out lands her opponent by such a large margin and then doesn't really get hit back very much. She doesn't grapple offensively hardly at all, but she isn't loss in the grappling either. Defensively, she has to keep the fight standing and she does so very well. Her 81% takedown defense is very good and she has largely been able to defend against wrestlers and force them to stand with her, where she can take advantage. I think the main question with Joanna at this stage is what percentage of her old self is she? After so many years of fighting and as she is getting into her mid 30s now, she isn't likely to be her old self fully, but how far removed she is from that is kind of up in the air. After the loss to Rose, she had a lot of up and down results, which suggested the years of competition and damage may have been catching up with her, but then she would turn in great performances. Taking over two years away from the sport typically isn't something that is all that helpful to a fighter, but with Joanna, I think it could prove to be a really great thing. Most fighters need to be fighting consistently in order to stay sharp and continue to grow, but Joanna has so much experience and is already such a great fighter, that I think the time away to heal and recover may actually outweigh the rust that comes with being away so long. We'll see how she looks, but I don't think the layoff is as big of a deal here as it would be for other fighters. If you read my picks you know how hesitant I am to pick fighters with that long gap, but it isn't as big of a deal in this very specific case for me.
Zhang Weili comes into this fight on a multi-fight losing streak for the first time in her career. She lost her very first fight as a professional and didn't lose again until losing to Rose Namajunas in consecutive outings. In between that was a 21 fight winning streak that included a 5-0 run in the UFC. Her first three fights in the promotion were wins over Danielle Taylor, Jessica Aguilar, and Tecia Torres. That was enough to get her a title fight against champion Jessica Andrade, which she won via first round knockout. She then had her first defense in the amazing first fight against Joanna, which saw both women take considerable damage. Weili didn't fight for over a year until she came back against Rose in a fight where she was knocked out via a head kick in 1 minute and 18 seconds. They would run that fight back in November of 2021 and, while the fight was much closer, Rose would get the decision win. I haven't gone back to rewatch the fight, but I did think Weili won when I saw it in real time. Stylistically, Zhang Weili is a very entertaining fighter and someone who the fans are always excited to watch. I think a newer fan may view her as more of a villain in the weight class, but that probably has more to do with how much people love Joanna and Rose. Weili hasn't fought someone besides those two since 2019, so that may be skewing perception of her a bit. Despite who the fans gravitate towards, Weili is always in interesting and exciting fights. Weili will come into this bout as the more well rounded fighter, which I think will be a major factor as the fight progresses. Like Joanna, she is primarily a striker. Weili has good speed in her hands and throws her strikes in combinations. She displays solid diversity in her strikes as well, mixing in kicks to keep her opponents off balance. She has displayed good cardio as well and is able to throw strikes with great volume, albeit slightly less frequently than Joanna. Where Weili makes up for it is her power. It isn't often that women's strawweight has power that will drastically influence the outcome of the fight, but Zhang Weili has exactly that. Her power, strength, and physicality in general are really impressive for the weight class. She is noticeably larger than all of her opponents and I think she could probably use that more if she wanted to. She had Rose hurt at one point during that fight and it looked like she maybe could have finished it, but I think the round ended. Where Zhang finds herself being more well rounded is in her ability to grapple offensively. She averages over 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, but only lands those takedowns at a 31% rate. While that isn't overly efficient, it does show that Zhang is willing to try to get to her takedowns and keep her opponents honest. They can't get too into just defending strikes or they'll end up on their back, but if they think too much about the takedown, they'll get hurt with the hands. Zhang is on what has become her normal type of schedule. She has been fighting once every 8-12 months for a few years now, so this schedule is nothing new for her. However, she is coming off of two losses and started training with Henry Cejudo in that time as well. I generally think training with Triple C has been a good thing for a lot of fighters, but it is a bit worrisome when fighters start changing everything they're doing after just a couple of losses. Other than the quick knockout she suffered in the first Rose fight, I don't think she's really had a bad performance in the UFC and I don't really expect that to start now.
The last thing to do is to go over some of the keys to this fight. The most important thing to me in this fight will be the grappling. If Zhang Weili can get to her takedowns, that will give her a huge advantage in this fight. Their last fight went 5 rounds and took place almost exclusively at range and Weili was able to win that fight, mostly where Joanna wanted to be. If Weili can mix it up and get the fight down, that would give her a huge advantage. I don't necessarily expect the takedowns to be a major part of the gameplan for Weili, but I think it could be a major factor given how close we expect this fight to be. One takedown here or another takedown there with a total of 3-5 minutes of top control could be enough to swing a round or two in her favor. With a fight this close, every little exchange matters and Zhang being able to get even one takedown could ultimately be what decides this fight. With Joanna's takedown defense, I don't expect her to be taken down time and time again, but she has to have everything on point in order to get a win of this caliber. From Joanna's perspective, I think the key for her is actually going to be her defense. Her offense has always been there and I imagine that it will still be there. Her striking is top notch and even with time away and her aging, she should still be able to land often. Zhang isn't the best defensively on the feet either, so I don't think landing strikes will be a huge issue for Joanna. She has to limit the damage that she absorbs better than she did in the first fight. With the power difference, Zhang can do more damage if the striking is even. Joanna needs to keep the striking numbers in her favor by a noticeable margin. If this is a back and forth fight on the feet, I think that favors Weili as each of her strikes will do more damage than Joanna's. Joanna needs to get back to a more technical fight and using footwork to move in and out to land her shots and then get out of range. Especially with the fight being in front of a full crowd, she may be tempted to start trading and I think that style of fight favors Weili more than it does Joanna. Ultimately, I think my biggest question coming into this fight is what version of Joanna we're getting. She hasn't fought in so long that we just can't really be sure what to expect from her. Joanna isn't the type of fighter who would short change a training camp or come into a fight unprepared, so there is some comfort in that, but it still just isn't clear what type of fighter she is right now. Generally speaking, fighters and athletes in general, aren't getting faster, strong, or more powerful from 32 to 34 years old. That is generally the time frame in which we see athletes start to lose a step or just get a tick slower or don't take a shot exactly the same way they used. This typically appears as a slow regression and something that happens over the course of many fights or games, depending on the sport. However, when that athlete is away for that long of a period, they aren't experiencing that gradual decline and making the requisite adjustments. In the fighters that we've seen have success as they age, they are typically consistent performers who are able to adjust to small changes in their athleticism and physicality. Since Joanna hasn't been competing in so long, she may have lost more than she realizes and doesn't have the experience of being a little slower or not taking punches the same as she used to. When the decline is experienced gradually, that allows for adjustments to be made to account for those issues. In Joanna's case, it may appear as if the decline is drastic because she hasn't had that competition in so long. On the other hand, the time off could have done her a lot of good. She took a lot of damage in that last fight and over the course of her entire career. An extended break could have been the exact thing she needed to allow her body to heal and maybe her chin benefits from not getting hit in so long. When a fighter reaches the heights that Joanna has, they don't typically experience rust in the same way that a middle of the road fighter might. She will probably be able to shake off that rust a little faster than the average fighter, but I don't know that she has that luxury in this fight. This is a fight that was so close the first time and Joanna is going to need to be ready from the jump. This isn't the type of matchup where she can give away minutes or a round. What makes this fight so much fun is the element of unknown. It was so close and so much fun the first time and given all of the changes and questions since, it should be a really fun one again.
I'll be making my picks on Saturday and overall, I'm just really looking forward to this fight. These may be the two most exciting fighters in women's MMA and I'm just glad we get to see this rematch play out while we can. I hope you guys are still liking this format and if there's anything you would like to see added please let me know. Leave all of your thoughts in the comments and your predictions as well. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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