This Saturday will be the first Pay Per View card in the month of July for the UFC. On paper, it is the best card of the year and I'm really looking forward to it. We'll see two title fights, with the first being Max Holloway vs Alexander Volkanovski, in the third installment of their trilogy. In my opinion, this will also be the best fight on the card and is the one I'm looking forward to the most. This trilogy started back in 2019 when Volkanovski first defeated Holloway to become the champion. That was a unanimous decision that I thought pretty clearly should have went in Volkanovski's favor. Given how long Max had been champion before then and his overall popularity, he was given the immediate rematch, which came on the original Fight Island card at UFC 251. Volkanovski would pick up the win again, this time by split decision. That decision was hotly contested by a lot of people in the media and even Dana White, who said in the immediate aftermath of the event that he thought Holloway had won the fight. In real time, I had the fight 48-47 for Volkanovski, but upon rewatching, I can certainly see why someone would have it 48-47 for Max. After a couple of fights for each against different opponents, they are still very clearly the two best fighters in the division and are being matched up for a third time. This is the biggest fight Max Holloway has had in a really long time as a loss here would essentially rule him out of any future title fights until Volkanovski either lost the title or vacated it. Both of their past fights have been so good and so close, that it is hard to imagine this fight not living up to the hype. Let's try to preview this one.
Alexander Volkanovski has had an unusual MMA journey, not that there is really a "traditional" path through this sport. He started out as an aspiring rugby player, who then made the transition to combat. Due to the differences in the requirements of the sports, Volk made his professional debut and first handful of fights all the way up at welterweight. As he transitioned to fulltime MMA and went away from rugby, a lot of that weight started to come off and he would eventually reach featherweight, while briefly passing through the lightweight division. His only career loss came in his fourth career fight, when he was knocked out in the opening moments of the third round. He hasn't lost since and reached a record of 13-1 before entering the UFC. He won his promotional debut on short notice and then collected a few more wins before he started to really get pushed. His win over Darren Elkins is what really put him on the championship path and then wins over Chad Mendes and Jose Aldo put him into his first title shot. That was the first Holloway fight where he was able to win a nice unanimous decision. His first defense was the very close split decision that is partially the reason that this trilogy is even necessary. He's had two defenses since that fight and they both came in impressive fashion. He beat down Brian Ortega in a fight that gets a bit skewed because Ortega had a 45 second stretch where he locked in 2 really tight submissions that would have finished most other fighters. Volkanovski escaped the mounted guillotine and the subsequent triangle attempts and went on to dominate the rest of the fight. If Brian Ortega wasn't too tough for his own good, he probably would have been finished late in that bout. His next defense, and last fight before this one, was a violent dismantling of the Korean Zombie. Zombie simply had no answers for the speed, power, and athleticism that Volk brought to that fight. That was probably Volkanovski's best performance to date and if he is going to maintain or even improve on that level of performance, he may never lose again. Stylistically, Volk is about as well rounded as a fighter can be. Striking seems to come more naturally to him or is at least his preferred style to fight than the grappling, but he can easily do whatever is necessary to get the win. On the feet, Volk is usually the shorter fighter as he is still really stout in build for the division, but he has a good reach. Despite being noticeably shorter, he will have a 2 inch reach advantage over Max in this one. I think Volk prefers the striking better because it allows him to use all of his athletic advantages. His hands are so fast and he packs so much power into his frame that he is a tough challenge to overcome. It isn't very often that the faster and more powerful striker is also the more technical striker, but that is exactly what Volk is in almost every fight. I have to imagine his advancement and diversity as a striker has been helped infinitely by training with a world class kick boxer in Israel Adesanya for so long. Volkanovski has become increasingly diverse in his strikes to the point where his kicks are essentially as good as his hands. The development of his low calf kicks in particular have been especially effective against Max in the past. While Volkanovski isn't necessarily a grappler, he is still plenty good enough to get a takedown if it is presented to him. I get the feeling that Volk actually wants to be a better grappler and wants that to be a part of his game more than he actually needs it. He is more than good enough on the feet to be a pure standup fighter if he chose to do so. There's just some feeling I have that Volk likes the idea of being extremely well rounded and he wants to continue to improve his wrestling even if he doesn't necessarily have to. He averages almost 2 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is a pretty decent amount, but he only hits them at a 30% rate. He isn't especially efficient at actually getting the fight down, but it is a helpful skill to be able to pull out whenever he needs it. In a fight as close as this one projects to be, a takedown with a minute or two of control time could be the difference between a 48-47 win and a 48-47 loss. His defensive wrestling has been on point for awhile now and it isn't often that we see Volk fighting off of his back. I would be pretty surprised if we saw that in this one. To go with all of that, he has some of the best cardio in the entire sport. He won't get tired and he won't slow his pace. Volk has been one of those guys who turns the pace up more and more as the fight progresses and we've seen him do some of his best work in the second half of a fight. He doesn't really have any true weaknesses, but if there was something that I had to look at as a potential area to be exposed, I guess it would be his chin? He has been hurt and dropped before, but it really hasn't been that often. That is really the only thing that I can say that isn't above average or elite. Volk is probably the second best fighter pound for pound in the UFC, and in the world, right now and it is going to take a masterful performance to be able to dethrone him.
On the other side of things, if there was ever someone capable of turning in said masterful performance, it would be Max Holloway. It's no secret that I am a huge fan of Max, but I'm also a big fan of Volk, so I think I'm able to see this fight from a relatively neutral perspective. Holloway made his UFC debut back in 2012 in what was only his 5th professional fight. That would end up being his first career loss and came to none other than Dustin Poirier. He would win three in a row before dropping a pair of fights to Dennis Bermudez and Conor McGregor, both by decision. That is when Max went on his crazy run of 13 wins in a row, which includes his title run. In that time, Holloway collected consecutive wins over Cub Swanson, Charles Oliveira, Jeremy Stephens, and Ricardo Lamas just to get to the title shot. He would fight for the interim title and win it in a fight against Anthony Pettis. Max would unify the title by knocking out Jose Aldo and would knock Aldo out again in his first defense. He would turn in a virtuoso level performance in his next defense against Brian Ortega, which would end after round 4 due to a doctor's stoppage. Max would then get the opportunity to pursue double champ status when he fought Dustin Poirier again, but this time for the interim lightweight title. He would lose that fight to Dustin, but didn't really lose any momentum. He turned in another really good performance when he defeated Frankie Edgar to secure another title defense, but then he ran into his toughest opponent in Volkanovski. He dropped his title in the first fight and was unable to recapture it in the second fight. It was at that point where some started to speculate that maybe Max was finally starting to decline after so many years of tough fights. Holloway responded by having one of the best performances of his career in a main event against Calvin Kattar. Holloway would break virtually every volume striking record in UFC history in that fight as he battered Kattar for the full 25 minutes. Holloway would pick up another win over Yair Rodriguez in another great performance that seemingly saw Max being as good as he has always been. That brings us up to current day with Max and it seems him on a nice little winning streak coming into what is probably the biggest fight of his career or at least one of them. Stylistically, Max is kind of the guy who started "the best boxer in the UFC" conversation that was a hot topic at different points last year. I'm not here to say Max is or isn't the best boxer in the UFC, but he is at least in the conversation. Max qualifies as a little more of a specialist than Volkanovski does, but that isn't to say Max isn't well rounded or is a one dimensional fighter by any means. The difference with Max is that all of his other skills feel supplemental to his boxing, where Volk feels like he could just decide to win an entire fight any way he chose. This leaves Max with a much more definable style, which I think is actually helpful in a lot of ways. It certainly helps him with his popularity as his style is very fun to watch, but I think it also keeps him focused. With Max, there is a very clear way in which he is going to win basically every fight. He mixes in his kicks here and there and he can get takedowns if they are presented to him, but he is looking to stand and throw hands. His technical boxing is really good, but it is really his cardio and ability to throw almost endless combinations that sets him apart. Max won't get tired and will extend his boxing combos far beyond what is normal in MMA. Max is the owner of virtually every volume striking record in the UFC for a reason. He comes out ready to throw and he will not slow down until the 25 minutes is up. If this fight goes the distance, I don't think there is really a way where Max doesn't get close to landing 200+ strikes. While all of these traits are great, what takes Max from being a really good fighter to an all time great champion is his chin. I know MMA On Point did a video where they did some statistical analysis and it passes the eye test as well, that concluded that Max has the best chin in UFC history. To put it simply, Max doesn't get hurt. He's never been dropped, I don't think he's ever been wobbled, and he really doesn't even take a step back when he takes any punches. You may think that this is a product of masterful striking defense and it really isn't. Max has solid enough striking defense at 60%, but he throws his own strikes with so much volume, that he leaves himself open to damage. He absorbs 4.69 significant strikes per minute, which I would generally say is too high. With Max, he really fights the perfect style for his skillset. He is so willing to just stand and trade because he's going to throw more punches than his opponent, land more, be able to do that longer because his cardio is better, and he seemingly can't get wobbled or knocked down. If you really boil it down to it's simplest form, it isn't anything too complicated, but it is almost like there's nothing his opponents can do about it. That isn't to diminish Max's ability as a technical striker because he certainly has those abilities, but if the fight divulges into chaos, a lot of that favors Max's skills. If there are any drawbacks to Max's game, it is probably his lack of power. For as great as he is, Max isn't an especially explosive or dynamic athlete, which really limits the power in his punches and kicks. If Max gets a knockout in this fight, it is going to come late due to an accumulation of damage, not because of one big shot. Max has made progress in rounding out his game and we even saw him be a more willing offensive wrestler against Yair Rodriguez, so we'll see if maybe that is something he wants to use against Volkanovski. I don't think it is particularly likely, but it is at least a possibility.
I'm not really even sure how to go about the keys to the fight section because the margins are so narrow. The one thing that I do think is a legitimate key is going to be the kicking battle. I think whoever can control the kicks is going to have a much easier time winning this fight. In theory, Max Holloway should have the advantage here. He is significantly taller and should have the longer leg reach, but we know that just isn't really a huge part of his game. If he can use low kicks to score points from range and then use his volume boxing when they come together, that would be a solid path to victory for him. In reality, the kicking game in their previous fights has been controlled by Volk and it has really been an important technique for him. Since he is a boxing heavy fighter, Max is vulnerable to low kicks and Volk has been able to really land them hard and often. Even if he doesn't use any low kicks offensively, Max has to find a way to limit those a bit better from a defensive perspective. Offensively, I think Max needs to do his best to make this fight wild and crazy. If he can get Volk to stand in the center and trade with him, I think that probably suits Max better. This is probably going to play out a bit slower paced and more technical and I think that makes all of the rounds really close. When Max is at his best, the strikes are flying early and often. He needs to find a way to open this fight up and let the striking numbers become elevated. The slower this fight is, the better it is for Volk because he is the more explosive athlete and will do more damage strike for strike. I think just throwing out as much volume as possible will not only help Max score offensively, but it will force Volk to either shell up to protect himself or try to counter. If Volk plants to try and counter that will keep the fight mostly at boxing range and will limit those low kicks that he has used so effectively in the previous matchups. For Volk offensively, I think he needs to let his athleticism take over. He is the faster, more powerful, and stronger man and he needs to let those advantages shine. You will sometimes here the announce team use the phrase "all the way in or all the way out" and I think that should be Volk's plan here. He should either be all the way in and try to clinch Max and use his strength to control him along the cage or take him to the ground or he should be all the way out at kicking range where he has the advantage. He should probably minimize extended combinations in boxing range as that is where Max wants to be. Volk has the speed both with his feet and with his hands to quickly enter the pocket, throw his combination, and then get back out. Planting his feet and just standing in the pocket with Max probably isn't the way to go, even though Volk has the power, hand speed, and technical ability to do it in most other cases. It isn't that I don't think Volk couldn't have success there or maybe even win the fight there, but that would be putting Max in the place that gives him the best chance to win. The real wild card in all of this is if someone decides to pursue any grappling exchanges. Volk is a decent enough offensive wrestler and Max is continuing to progress in that area, but I wonder if both fighters just decide that it won't be worth the energy expended to even attempt any takedowns. Both men are so good at preventing takedowns that it may be too much work to make it worth it. The stats tell us that Volk will attempt them, but I don't know that he will in this fight specifically. He has amazing cardio, but so does Max. To use up that much energy trying for a takedown only to get it stuffed or to have them get right back up might put someone at the cardio disadvantage the rest of the way. This fight is so even that one decision like that could legitimately be the difference in the entire fight. I do find myself wondering how long Max can go and still maintain an absolute granite chin too. He's been fighting professionally since 2010 and is now 30 fights into this thing. He is still only 30, so he's not an old fighter or really even close to it, but he does have a lot of miles on those tires and at some point, I would think something has to give. If there was every anyone who would be able to give his chin a problem, I would think Volkanovski would be the guy (shoutout to Josh Emmett though, he probably has the most power in the entire weight class). Obviously there is no way to predict that, but it is something that I think about as Max has battle after battle and takes all of these shots.
What do you guys think? How do you see the fight playing out? What is the key to victory for either side in your opinion? Leave any and all thoughts in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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