The UFC is back to cap off a busy week in MMA. At the time this is posted, PFL and Bellator will be tonight with the UFC tomorrow. It is nice to finally have that full slate of MMA action back all at once. All of the cards have their highlights as PFL will feature the return of Anthony Pettis as well as some other names that non-PFL watchers may recognize. The Bellator card will feature some interesting names as well, including former UFC middleweight and current Bellator champion Gegard Mousasi. The UFC finishes the weekend off with a really interesting main event that I'm really looking forward to. Mateusz Gamrot and Arman Tsarukyan don't necessarily carry the name value to the more casual portion of the audience, but they are both as talented as it gets. I really wish that the UFC would make more main events like this one instead of the constant Thiago Santos or Alexander Volkov main events. While the names may not carry the same value, the fight itself will actually be good and fun. Getting fighters like this main event experience before they're in the top five will only help them in the long run. Anyways, let's start pulling this fight apart.
The blue corner in this fight will feature the number 12 ranked lightweight in Mateusz Gamrot. Gamrot comes into this fight with an overall record of 20-1, with 1 no contest. His only loss came to Guram Kutateladze a couple of years ago in their UFC debuts. Since that loss, Gamrot has won his last three and has looked pretty good in the process. Those wins all came inside the distance against Scott Holtzman (KO), Jeremy Stephens (submission), and Carlos Diego Ferreira (TKO). Gamrot is coming into this fight trending in the right direction and his overall skillset allows him to really take the fight in whatever direction he needs it to go. As with most fighters in the top 15 of the lightweight division, Gamrot is extremely well rounded. He doesn't really have any glaring hole or weakness in his game that can be exposed with any level of consistency. I would say that Gamrot is a more natural grappler than a striker, but he is perfectly fine on the feet as well. Gamrot is a really good pure wrestler and he looks for the takedowns early and often. He averages 5.83 takedowns per 15 minutes and those are just the ones that he gets successfully. He lands them at a 40% rate, which is pretty good considering the pure volume of takedowns he's attempting. Albeit in only 4 UFC fights, he has 100% takedown defense as well. On the feet, Gamrot doesn't do anything mind boggling, but he's just a really steady fighter. He relies mostly on his technical boxing when standing as his power and hand speed are closer to average for the division. He uses his technical boxing skill and combines it with good volume to outland his opponents on the feet more often than not. He also does an excellent job of limiting the damage he takes while standing. He rates out really well in the striking defense both in terms of percentage (64%) and total strikes absorbed (2.69). The one strength that Gamrot has that I think he really needs to utilize in this fight specifically is his cardio. Gamrot has a history of fighting 5 rounds in his time before the UFC and has never really been a guy to gas out. I think the best thing he could do in this fight would be to push a pace and see if Tsarukyan can keep up with him. If there is any limitation in Gamrot's game it may be that he's not an elite level athlete. He doesn't quite have that same explosion, speed, or power that we see at the highest levels of this division. He relies on his technique and cardio to make up for some of those deficiencies and it has worked out for him so far. That isn't to say he can't overcome them, but he has to keep everything tightened up in order to do so.
The red corner will have Arman Tsarukyan, who comes into this fight ranked one spot ahead of Gamrot. He has a similar number of career fights as Gamrot and enters Saturday with a record of 18-2. His first career loss came when he was knocked out in 30 seconds in what was only his second professional fight. Much like Gamrot, he also lost his UFC debut. Tsarukyan debuted on short notice against Islam Makhachev in a fight that actually saw him have some success. He would ultimately gas out as that fight progressed, but early on he was winning moments against someone that most are pegging as the next guy to go on a long championship run at 155 lbs. Since the loss, he has won 5 fights in a row. Three of those have come via decision against Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Davi Ramos, and Matt Frevola. His last two wins have been via TKO with really dominant wins over Christos Giagos and Joel Alvarez. The win against Alvarez was especially impressive to me as Alvarez was a guy that so many were predicting to be a real problem in this division, which he still may be, due to his complete skillset and his massive size for the division. Tsarukyan was able really put it on him and finished that fight early in the second round. Stylistically, a lot of what I just said about Gamrot will apply here to Tsarukyan. Tsarukyan is also extremely well rounded with very little in terms of noticeable weakness. Like Gamrot, Arman is probably a more natural grappler than he is a striker. He may not be as good of a pure freestyle wrestler as Gamrot, but I think his overall ground game may be more advanced as things currently stand. He doesn't get as many takedowns or get them as efficiently as Gamrot does and he has been taken down in his UFC career. However, being taken down by Islam Makhachev on short notice isn't exactly the average takedown attempt. On the feet, he takes a similar approach to Gamrot. They strike in a slightly more reserved fashion as to not expose themselves to unnecessary damage. Where they differ is that Tsarukyan will throw with more power in his shots. However, he does this without sacrificing any of his defense as he limits damage on the feet extremely well. The big advantage that I think Tsarukyan will have here is his physicality. He should be the bigger, stronger, more powerful, and more explosive fighter. He needs to use those advantages and I think they will serve him best in the grappling exchanges. I think he has the capability, at least early on, to out muscle Gamrot in the clinch or against the cage in general. What he does have to be careful of is not just trying to brute force things too much in the early going. If he relies too much on his physicality, he could find himself gassed out. It hasn't always been a problem for him, but at times in his career, he's found himself being the more tired fighter in the later going. Other than the short notice fight against Makhachev (that also had a crazy pace), he has a had a fight here or there where he just tires out, but it happens so inconsistently that I can't really say it is a true weakness, but it possibly could be. Another factor in this is that he's never been in a 5 round fight. He's gone 3 plenty of times, but never 5. In a fight that projects to be so close, every little thing could make the difference and you don't want that to be cardio if you can help it.
The final thing to do here is to discuss some keys to this fight. Normally when I do this, I pick out two or three things that could swing the fight either way. This fight is a challenging to use that format for because both fighters are so well rounded that there isn't just an easy thing to point to and say well if fighter A does this then he probably wins but if fighter B can stop it and do this then he probably wins. Anywhere the fight is, it is really a matter of splitting hairs. I think the best way for me to do this is probably to just compare the two in each area and discuss how one or the other could sway it in their favor. On the feet, I think the both of them are more or less even. Tsarukyan may have a slight speed and power advantage, at least in the early rounds, but Gamrot is probably the more technically advanced of the two. Even that is really tough to differentiate though. In the grappling, I kind of think I give the edge to Tsarukyan. His stats aren't as good, but I can't unsee him having actually grappling success against Islam Makhachev. I think Tsarukyan's superior athleticism may end up being the difference maker in those grappling exchanges, especially in the early rounds. I think the concern there, if you're a Tsarukyan bettor, is that Gamrot is still really good on the ground. Even if Tsarukyan has the advantage, I don't think it is likely that he has such a huge advantage that he holds Gamrot down for long stretches at a time. Then it becomes a question of how much energy does Tsarukyan need to use to get those early takedowns. If he has to work really hard to get the fight down and then Gamrot scrambles right back to his feet, that could be a problem. I feel much more confident in Gamrot's cardio and his ability to hold up over a full 25 minutes. I can envision a scenario where Tsarukyan is able to use his strength to get those takedowns early, but then as he begins to tire, we see Gamrot having more and more success, which would make for a very interesting decision. The eye test would probably tell you that Tsarukyan is slightly better, but this being a 5 round main event really makes this fight a lot more even in my mind. If I'm wrong here and Tsarukyan is actually a better striker as well, that would would really sway things. Ultimately, I think this fight is really even with a slight edge to Tsarukyan early and things turning in Gamrot's favor the longer the fight lasts. With Tsarukyan sitting at around a -300 favorite, I think that is a little steep. That sort of implies that Tsarukyan should win this fight with a degree of ease that I can't predict, although I think it is correct to have him as the favorite.
What do you guys think? Are you excited for this fight? Who do you like to win? Leave any and all thoughts below as well as your predictions. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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