The co-main event of UFC 276 was the fight that most people were looking forward to in the lead up to the event. While the main card as a whole was a little bumpy, Max Holloway vs Alex Volkanovski still delivered, just not in the way that I think anyone expected. After the first two fights between these two were very close and competitive, this one was certainly not. Volkanovski collected his third win over Holloway and it was the clearest of the three. He took all 5 rounds pretty definitively and Max really never got much of anything going. This was exactly what Volk needed to really move on in his career and have the fans put the Holloway stuff behind them. I didn't really think it was possible, but I think Volk actually one upped his performance from the Korean Zombie fight. Let's just get into it and not waste any time.
Alexander Volkanovski continues to separate himself from the rest of the division in ways that I really didn't know were possible. I think there is a real argument to be had about this version of Volk being the best featherweight of all time. Now, I'm not saying that he has accomplished as much or has the total resume that Aldo has, but I think if you could somehow take different, specific versions of fighters and put them into a bracket style tournament, 2022 Alex Volkanovski would win. He is somehow still elevating himself despite being, at worst, the number 2 pound for pound fighter in the world. After this, he is probably neck and neck with Kamaru Usman for that top spot, at least in my head for now. I'm not surprised Volkanovski won and as the week progressed, I started to feel more and more like him being close to a -200 favorite was actually justified. He looked every bit of that and more on Saturday. We know how good Max Holloway still is and Volk simply just looked to be slightly, but noticeably better. Volkanovski was really in control of everything from start to finish. There wasn't too much grappling, but they did briefly clinch a few times and Volk looked to be one step ahead there. He was beating Max to positions and he as also the stronger fighter, so he controlled those positions without too much of an issue. When the fight was at range, there was a distinct speed advantage for Volkanovski that was more pronounced than I remember it being in the previous fights. I don't want to say that Max got slower because he has handled Calvin Kattar and Yair Rodriguez without too much issue, but the speed gap was definitely wider than the first two fights. Volkanovski was controlling all of the exchanges. He was the one managing the distance, he was landing more shots and the harder shots. His defense was also the best it had been in all of the Holloway fights. I'm not sure if Volk absorbed more than a handful of clean shots the entire 25 minutes. Volkanovski really didn't go back to the leg kicks that were so effective for him in the first fight, but clearly he didn't need them as much. Even though I think Volk is the more technical fighter and incorporates feints into his game as well as anyone in the entire sport, I'm not sure how much that contributed to this domination. Obviously it played a part, but in this fight way more than the other two, it just seemed like the physical advantages (speed, power, strength) were way too pronounced for Holloway to really have anything more than a puncher's chance. It has really gotten to the point where it is hard to imagine Volkanovski losing a fight beyond just getting clipped and knocked out. Beyond that, I really don't know how someone beats him. On the feet, I think he is the best in the division by a wide margin. He's probably the most technical striker in the division and he has really good power and hand speed to pair with it. Maybe someone could wrestle him and try to hold him down for 3 out of 5 rounds, but Volk is one of, if not the best, athlete in the division. His physical strength and technique wouldn't make that an easy path at all. On top of that, I don't think the division has a grappler at the level. Bryce Mitchell is the closest guy with that general archetype, but I don't think he's at the level where he could hold down Volk for 15 of 25 minutes, which is what he would have to do. If Brian Ortega can't submit Volk with a locked in mounted guillotine that transitions directly into a triangle attempt, then Bryce Mitchell certainly isn't submitting him. Volkanovski feels almost invincible right now and it is hard to really pinpoint someone who feels like they have a real chance of beating him.
Most of the time, it sort of feels like the UFC has the next contender set up when a title is defended, but featherweight seems open. The guy who is in place for that shot is Josh Emmett. Emmett is on a really nice winning streak and is coming off of a big win over a top 5 opponent in Calvin Kattar. I feel like Emmett has earned the shot based on merit at this point, but I think the optics of the situation are sort of working against him. Emmett is largely a power striker who brings just ok wrestling, which doesn't really feel like the style to beat Volk. That matchup would give off a lot of the same vibes that we got from Cannonier vs Izzy. The challenger is a good fighter deserving off the opportunity, but the matchup is going to be a tough one for them. The UFC has sort of a one sided contender fight coming up in a couple of weeks with Brian Ortega taking on Yair Rodriguez. Ortega won't be getting another title shot this quickly, but Rodriguez could certainly be in the conversation. Because of Rodriguez's style, it feels like the UFC would be more willing to give him the shot. He seems like the more marketable fighter because he uses more exciting techniques and he did fight really well against Max in his previous fight. Ultimately, he has to win a very tough fight against Ortega first, but it just sort of feels like the UFC would want him to be the next guy if they can make it happen. Rodriguez is an exciting fighter, but I'm not sure how great I would feel about his prospects either. He throws a lot of wild strikes, so in that sense he would probably have a chance to catch Volk with something that he didn't see coming, but I don't think he has the same power that Emmett does. Beyond those guys, I don't know that there is really anyone else even in the running. Calvin Kattar is sort of in this weird state of limbo where he can't get over the hump to get the shot, but he passes most of the tests below him. Arnold Allen is a really good fighter, but he has trouble actually climbing the rankings because he is always banged up. Every time he fights, he feels like he is one win away from the title fight, but then we don't see him for another 14 months, so he just is perpetually one more win away. Giga Chikadze and Bryce Mitchell feel like too much of a specialist to overcome someone as well rounded as Volk. Giga got out wrestled by Calvin Kattar and then gassed out, so I don't feel great about his chances right now. Mitchell has good wrestling and the cardio, but I sort of have a feeling that if he stood with Volk for more than a couple of minutes things would go south for him rather quickly. Ilia Topuria brings a solid well rounded skillset, but he had trouble making the weight and he feels like he's another tier beneath even Mitchell and Giga. He's probably closer to 2 or 3 wins away. The one guy who is somewhat close and feels like he is well rounded enough to at least hang would be Movsar Evloev. We know he brings some really good grappling and we just saw him beat Dan Ige mostly in the stand up. I don't know if he can reach the levels Volk can, but he is well rounded enough that the possibility at least intrigues me.
The other very real possibility here is that Volkanovski attempts the move up to lightweight. When Volk made the call out after the fight and I realized that he is now openly campaigning for a fight against Charles Oliveira, I got really excited. That fight would be absolutely insane and I can't get it out of my head as being the fight I would be most excited for, not only for Volk, but for the rest of the UFC calendar in 2022. The problem is that this fight would really put some other guys on the back burner, which does make me feel a little bit bad. Ultimately, I think the UFC would do it if they knew it would do massive business, which I think it would. It would leave Josh Emmett and Islam Makhachev in a weird spot wondering what they would have to do, but at the same time, I think it is an opportunity that Volkanovski deserves. While I do feel bad for either making Emmett wait or making him fight for number one contender status, I think he sort of would have to fall in line. The happiness of the champion will be more important and if he wants to challenge for a second belt, I don't know how they could tell him no because he hasn't fought Emmett yet. Add in the fact that the Oliveira fight would draw significantly more and I don't think Emmett really has much solid ground to stand on. I think the bigger issue in front of Volk for this fight is Islam Makhachev. Everyone has had Islam pegged as a future champion for awhile now and he seems to finally be on the cusp of the title shot. With as much respect as I have for Islam, I feel like his argument for the title shot, in comparison to Volk's is pretty week. Islam's two best wins are over Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker, who both took their respective fights on short notice. On top of that, Tsarukyan was making his UFC debut in that fight. Beyond those, Islam's best wins have come against a short notice Bobby Green, Drew Dober, and Thiago Moises. While those are all solid wins, I don't think any of them are even remotely close to the quality of opponent that would typically earn someone a title shot. People are using those names like they're these crazy resume building wins when they're really just solid wins along the way. On top of all of that, even the name value that those wins do carry has been diminished in the immediate aftermath of those fights. Islam's fans are trying to act like his quick win over Bobby Green when Green took that fight on like 5 days notice is enough to propel him to a championship and then Bobby Green's next fight was supposed to be Jim Miller. With all due respect to Green, if he was the type of fighter who a win over guaranteed a title shot, he wouldn't have been fighting Jim Miller next, who's been beating guys making their promotional debuts before fighting Cowboy Cerrone this past weekend. Since losing to Islam in the 4th round, Thiago Moises has gotten knocked out in 3 minutes by Joel Alvarez and just picked up a win over Christos Giagos. That simply isn't the kind of win to earn someone a title shot. Drew Dober at least got to fight Brad Riddell after losing to Islam, but he also lost that fight and then fought Terrance McKinney. Since fighting Islam, Dan Hooker has been knocked out in 2 and a half minutes by Arnold Allen and is now booked to fight Clay Guida. I think Islam is plenty talented enough to justify giving the title shot to in a vacuum, but with Volkanovski sitting here calling his shot, I don't think Islam should take priority. His resume is nowhere near as bullet proof as his biggest supporters like to think it is. If Islam is so dominant, then I don't see why he is so adamant on not fighting someone ranked inside the top 5 before getting a title shot. He's so good that it should be easy work, so I don't know what the hold up is. For me, Volkanovski has proved time and time again how great he is and has a significantly better resume than Islam. He is simply more deserving of the title shot in my opinion. On top of that, making it seem like Volkanovski hasn't fully earned the title fight because Josh Emmett is still there is a bit odd. Izzy got to challenge for double champ status against Jan Blachowicz of all people (in a fight that no one was really asking to see) after beating Gastelum for the interim title, unifying the belts against Whittaker, a defense against Romero, and a defense against Paulo Costa. I think 3 wins over Max Holloway paired with wins over Brian Ortega and Korean Zombie are at least equal to that. I just think this is the fight to make if it is there to be made.
Anyways, we still have to talk about Max Holloway. This fight sort of had me confused for most of it because I couldn't tell if what we were seeing was because Volk had reached yet another level of unstoppable or if Max had taken a step back. I came to the conclusion that it was more of Volk elevating himself, but I still am asking that question in the back of my head. That just didn't really look like the Max Holloway that we have all come to know and love. What was most interesting to me is that Max was so tentative and patient. That really isn't Max's game at all. Max's offense is based in his technical boxing and his willingness to engage. Max has been willing to just stand in front of his opponents and out box them because he is going to land more shots than them and he is going to absorb damage better than them. I'm not sure that I fully understand what his game plan was in this fight. He seemed fairly content to have a slower paced (not that this fight was slow, just slower than the pace that Max is known for) outside kick boxing match, which on paper would favor Volk 9 times out of 10. I thought the best route for Max would have been to try and make this fight wild. Trying to get Volk into a fire fight would have opened up his defense and given openings for Max to land. Max was going to be able to get his volume off and hopefully connect flush. He dropped Volkanovski twice the last time, so clearly his power was able to effect him, but he really didn't try to get this fight into positions of chaos. Having this fight take place in more controlled exchanges was going to put the emphasis on Volkanovski's superior power and speed since neither had a technical advantage over the other. I mentioned it before, but as the week progressed, especially after I had completed my preview, I started to think more and more that this was Volk's fight to lose. Obviously it is still very close because Max is a great fighter, but his margins just seemed so thin the more that I thought about this matchup and I think that is what we saw play out. Max's path to victory was going to be his ability to accumulate insane amounts of strikes, but he didn't come out with a strategy to land a ton of strikes. It seemed like he wanted to use a lot of feints and just box him, which was never going to work. Volk is too fast, too powerful, and too defensively sound to just try to box him. Max didn't bring an advanced enough kicking game or grappling skillset to keep him off balance at all. Volk only had to focus on the hands and combine that with a speed and quickness advantage and Max really couldn't even land very often. When he did land, it was never really clean or powerful. With all of that said, it wasn't like Max fought poorly or didn't compete because he surely did. We've seen Volk punish both Ortega and Korean Zombie badly in his last two fights and Max was still in the fight to an extent, but it just never felt like he was going to overcome all of the advantages Volk had after about the 10 minute mark. This leaves Max at sort of a crossroads in his career and it will be interesting to see what he does next.
I don't really even know what to say when it comes to Max's future because he has so many options that it is hard to narrow them down. I guess I'll start with the least likely option and go from there. I think the least likely thing for Max to do is to become the featherweight top 5 gatekeeper. I think it was MMA Fighting's Alex K. Lee that compared it to the situation that Joanna Jedrzejczyk would have been in had she not decided to retire. It is going to be next to impossible for Max to get another shot at the title unless Volkanovski permanently leaves the division or retires himself. If Max were to stay at featherweight, that would leave him in a position where he would essentially just serve as the guy for other fighters to earn title shots off of, if they could beat him. I have a feeling that the UFC doesn't really want this option either as Max would probably end up stalling the runs of a lot of their potential title challengers. I don't think Max would be content to just fight whatever new contender needed one last signature win to earn a title shot with no real hope for his own future with a belt. I think the option that is only slightly more likely is that Max transitions to just taking fun and interesting fights. While it is a possibility and maybe there are some fights just for fun starting to get mixed in for him, Max is still only 30 years old. I don't think he is all of the sudden just going to take fun and random fights for potentially the next 5 years or longer. If Max is planning on fighting more than a couple of more times, then I don't think he would be into this option. Now, if Max was only looking for another 2-4 big fights before walking away, then this would make a lot more sense, but I haven't gotten the feeling from him that he is done. I think the most likely option for him is a move up to lightweight. Max has the height and length to deal with 155 lbs fighters and the weight cuts to featherweight have looked increasingly tough on him. He has always looked kind of bad leading up to the weigh ins on fight week, but it is starting to get worse each time and this moving was going to happen soon regardless of if he won the title or not. Max is still a tremendous fighter and if and when he does make that move, I don't think he will be more than a couple of wins away from a title shot there. I think a move would be a breath of fresh air for him as it presents so may new and fresh matchups for him and the division as a whole. He has fought Dustin Poirier twice and Conor McGregor once, but other than that, everyone else is new for him. I think a move would be the best thing for both Max and the UFC. I would imagine that it would inject some energy and spark back into Max as well to have all of these fresh and interesting faces to fight. He's been in the UFC's featherweight division for so long that maybe just a change would reinvigorate him a little bit. If that were the case, I think fights with Justin Gaethje, Michael Chandler, and Conor McGregor would all make plenty of sense. I don't know that those timelines all work out, but it is unclear when any of them want to or are able to return right now. The first thing that Max needs to do is just take some time away and enjoy life. He has the cut above his eye that is going to need some time to close, but after that, just take some time to reset. I don't think there's any need to rush back into things or make a quick decision. He is going to have a big fight lined up for him whenever he is ready to return, so he should just recover, decompress, and enjoy time with his family. I thought there was at least a chance that Max could retire, but given his instagram post, that doesn't seem to be on his mind. I can't wait for him to be back and hopefully he'll be in a new division with a lot of fresh and interesting fights for him.
What do you guys think? What did you make of the fight? Who should Volkanovski fight next? What do you want to see Max do in the future? Leave any and all thoughts below. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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