We are coming off of a very solid week finally with our picks and it is just in time for what is probably the biggest card of the year so far. UFC 276 kicks off later tonight and it should be a fantastic card basically from start to finish. We did lose to Miesha Tate vs Lauren Murphy fight, but even then, this card is stacked the entire way through. Cards like these are great to watch, but they're usually pretty tough to make picks on because so many of these fights can truly go either way. I'm really looking forward to this night after some stressful times in my personal life and I needed this to just chill out. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Let's get right into it.
Jessica-Rose Clark defeats Julija Stoliarenko Result: Stoliarenko by sub (0-1)
We'll kick the night off with a dangerous fight to pick. In short, Jessica-Rose Clark should be the better fighter here. She isn't necessarily an amazing striker, but she is decent and should have a noticeable advantage there. She is going to throw with more volume and has an overall more refined game on the feet. Stoliarenko is very slow paced in her striking and doesn't avoid strikes very well at all. Clark will also be the better pure wrestler here. She actually lands her takedowns at a decent enough rate and has passable takedown defense. Stoliarenko needs the fight to be on the ground, but she doesn't wrestle very effectively at all. She only gets the fight down on 12% of her attempts. This all seems very straight forward, but it is dangerous because Stoliarenko is a bit of an armbar expert. We just saw Clark fall right into an armbar in her last fight, which has some people a bit concerned. On top of that, Clark doesn't always display the best fight IQ, especially in her last fight. With that said, Jessica-Rose Clark is the better fighter and I can't imagine that she's going to dive into an armbar when that is her opponent's only real path to victory two fights in a row.
Jessica Eye defeats Maycee Barber Result: Barber by decision (0-2)
This may come as a surprise, but I'm going with Eye here. I'm not really sure how the betting odds have gotten so wide, unless you think Eye is basically done. I view this fight as being more or less even. On the feet, Barber has shown to be inconsistent. When she decides she wants to fight, she can come forward and throw with good volume and solid power. The problem is, she has these fights where she just gets frozen and fights with little aggression. If she isn't going to bring the volume and aggression, then Eye will definitely have the striking advantage. Eye is going to be at the athletic disadvantage, but I think her technical boxing will be better. I don't see how this fight isn't more or less even in the striking with a slight power edge to Barber and a slight technical edge to Eye. Grappling wise, I see a lot of people who think Barber will just rag doll Eye. While I don't think Eye is a phenomenal grappler, I think she is at least proficient. Barber has had success in the grappling, but she relies a lot on her tremendous physicality instead of sound wrestling technique. There is the possibility that Eye has just reached the end, but if that isn't the case, I think this fight is almost even everywhere. Add in the potential that Maycee Barber fights extremely tentatively again and I think Eye has a very real chance to win this fight.
Andre Muniz defeats Uriah Hall Result: Muniz by decision (1-2)
Picking against Uriah Hall never feels good, but picking him may feel worse. Hall, even at his age, is still one of the most explosive and powerful strikers in the middleweight division. He is also an extremely advanced and technical striker. The thing with Hall is that there is the distinct possibility that he comes out and just stands there for 15 minutes and doesn't get any shots off. Hall is a guy who needs to control the pace of the fight and come forward, but I don't think Muniz is going to let him do that. Muniz is one of the best MMA submission artists going right now and Hall does not defend takedowns very well at all. He was taken down time and time again by Sean Strickland. I don't think Muniz is a fantastic wrestler, but he is at least as good as Strickland. The worry is that if Muniz gets stuck on the feet, he really doesn't stand much of a chance against Hall. Muniz's striking, while always improving, is still not very advanced and he is very low output. Ultimately, I think Muniz only needs a single takedown in order to submit Hall and I think he can get it. Hall doesn't get submitted, so maybe it ends up going to decision, but I don't know that he can stay off his back. I think this is a fight with two guys trending in opposite directions and Muniz can pick up another win.
Brad Tavares defeats Dricus Du Plessis Result: Du Plessis by decision (1-3)
This is just one of those fights where no matter what I do, I'll be on the wrong side. Du Plessis is the hot name right now, but I just have too many questions about him to pick him this time out. Du Plessis has tremendous power and finishing ability, but he is a little wild. Brad Tavares is a huge step up in competition for Dricus and it may be too much too soon. Tavares is the better technical striker and I think he will be able to counter Du Plessis if he tries to enter range too nonchalantly. I don't think Du Plessis will be able to wrestle as Tavares is too good of a defensive wrestler. The concern for Tavares is that he is low output offensively and his chin hasn't held up all the time. Du Plessis has great power and could certainly put him out, but if this fight gets into the second half, I wonder how his cardio holds up. He's never gone the distance in his entire career and Tavares wins decisions at an extremely high clip. If Tavares can survive the early going, I think he probably pulls ahead late, it is just a matter of getting there. Ultimately, I think he can do that against an inexperienced Du Plessis.
Ian Garry defeats Gabe Green Result: Garry by decision (2-3)
I almost went with Green here, but I think Garry is just a little bit better. This fight should be mostly standing, but if it does go to the ground, I think Garry is a little more fundamentally sound. On the feet, Green is going to come forward and throw punches in bunches. I think heavy pressure is the right strategy against Garry, but I don't think Green does it tactically well enough. He is going to come forward, but he doesn't cut off the cage and will follow Garry. Garry moves very well and has the technical striking advantage to land some really nasty counters. On top of that, Green is very hittable. He just takes way too much damage to be able to walk someone down with the power and precision of Garry. Green is going to make it interesting, but I ultimately think the counter punching of Garry will be the difference in this one. He'll land the bigger and more impactful shots.
Cowboy Cerrone defeats Jim Miller Result: Miller by sub (2-4)
This is kind of a tale of two fights. Cowboy has a tendency that if he gets finished, it is going to happen early. Jim Miller is at his best early. If Cowboy survives the early going, he usually fights pretty well late. Jim Miller, since his diagnosis, has really struggled with his cardio beyond a round. Miller is hot in terms of wins and losses, but it isn't against the most impressive competition. I think Cowboy is the better striker here and will throw with noticeably more volume. Miller has decent power, but he is low output on the feet. Miller will need to wrestle, but Cowboy has really good takedown defense. I get that most people think Cowboy is just cooked, but I feel like if Cowboy was fighting the same guys as Jim Miller, people would look at him much differently. As long as Cowboy doesn't just walk into a huge overhand, I think he can survive the early going and then take over in the second half of the fight.
Brad Riddell defeats Jalin Turner Result: Turner by sub (2-5)
This should probably be one of the best fights of the night and it can really go in a variety of ways. Turner is absolutely huge and is the more explosive fighter here. He's going to come out hot and push for the finish early. He's going to throw a ton of strikes with really nice power on them. He also has a really nice submission game, but he doesn't typically wrestle very often. He hits his takedowns at an 80% rate, but only averages a touch over 1 per 15 minutes. Riddell is a much more technical striker and brings solid volume and power with it. He is also the better pure wrestler in my estimation. The big thing for Riddell is going to be his ability to close the distance. He is used to being the smaller fighter, but this puts that at an extreme. I'm a huge Riddell fan, so maybe I'm a bit biased, but I think he can work his way inside and land the big shots. Riddell has a really good chin as he stood and banged it out with Drew Dober and fought really close with an elite striker in Rafael Fiziev until Fiziev landed a huge kick late. I think Fiziev is a way better striker than Turner, so I think Riddell can handle himself on the feet. Riddell has been more and more willing to wrestle as his game has evolved and I think he can get those takedowns here if he wanted to. Turner has been on a great run, but he has had some questions about his chin early in his career. Riddell is going to test that unless Turner comes out and just immediately flattens him, which I don't expect will happen. The first round may be rough, but I like Riddell in the second and third round to close the distance and land damaging shots on the inside.
Sean O'Malley defeats Pedro Munhoz Result: No contest after eye poke
To start the PPV, we have another fight with a massive reach differential. That will be in favor of O'Malley in this one and I think he can use it well. Sean does a great job of keeping people on the end of his strikes whether he is moving forwards or backwards. Sean also showed the cardio to fight off of his back foot for virtually all 15 minutes when he beat Kris Moutinho. He also fights with insane output and does so with really good power and diversity in his strikes. O'Malley also avoids damage pretty well for someone who throws with this much volume. Munhoz does have a path as he has really good power and throws with good volume as well. A lot of people are making a big deal about Pedro's leg kicks because O'Malley has had problems with his leg health in the past. For me, the fact that those issues are unrelated leaves me not too worried about it. The first injury was when he broke his foot by kicking someone in the head and the second came from a nerve issue after Chito Vera landed the perfect kick. Now, if we get another leg injury, especially early, from Pedro's low kicks, then maybe there is something there, but I don't think two unrelated injuries are enough to call someone fragile. Pedro seems to be slowing down recently and he gets hit way too much for me in this spot. Absorbing over 6 strikes per minute against someone who throws over 8 a minute with at least above average power doesn't sound like a recipe for success for me. Pedro doesn't get knocked out, but that has more to do with the durability of his chin then anything he is doing defensively. Pedro doesn't wrestle offensively either, so I think his path to victory is to land enough low kicks to slow Sean's movement and then land the big power shot. I just don't know that he will be able to land anything of significance through the onslaught of strikes that O'Malley is going to be sending his way. At some point, Pedro's chin may fail him, especially as he's gotten into the latter stages of his career and it wouldn't surprise me if this were the time for it.
Bryan Barberena defeats Robbie Lawler Result: Barberena by KO (3-5)
This is kind of a weird one, but it should be a fun one. If this fight were happening like 5 years ago, Lawler probably wins this without too much of a question. Unfortunately for him, it is now 2022 and I just don't really know what he has left to give. In his last fight, Lawler lost a round to Nick Diaz, who hadn't competed in 6 years. I still think Lawler is the better technical boxer and probably has the power advantage here, but he has always been a little on the lowish side with the volume. That has really slowed more as he has aged and if there is anything Barberena will do, it is throw strikes. He takes too much damage in his own right and will be less technical here, but he is significantly younger and I think Robbie may be done. I know Barberena just had a fight to the death with Matt Brown, but I can't see Lawler lose a round to that version of Nick Diaz and then think he can beat Barberena here.
Sean Strickland defeats Alex Pereira Result: Pereira by KO (3-6)
I still don't really understand how this fight came to be, but here we are. This fight is actually pretty interesting, even though it really shouldn't be. Pereira is a world class striker, who is also massive for middleweight and has really good power. His left hook devastates people time and time again in impressive fashion. Strickland is a pretty good striker in his own right. He may market himself as a lunatic (or maybe he just is one), but as a fighter, he is a pretty smart one. He is willing and able to fight behind his jab and avoids damage pretty well. He is in fantastic shape and can push a pace that is tough for most others to keep up with. He lacks the real impact power that Pereira has, but I think the idea that if this fight stays standing then Sean gets runover is being overstated. We see kickboxers come to MMA all the time and they struggle to adjust with how different MMA striking defense is. Most of them aren't at the level of Pereira, but still. Strickland is also at least a competent wrestler. He took Uriah Hall down multiple times and I think he can certainly do the same here. The question people are asking is if Strickland will actually choose to wrestle because it goes against the persona he has built for himself. While Sean plays the character of someone who is stupid, I don't think he is dense enough to not realize the opportunity that is in front of him. Maybe it won't be the most exciting fight in the world, but I think Sean is at least aware enough to realize that he is a win away from the title shot. Even if he has to wrestle his way to a "boring" decision, I think he will do whatever it takes to pick up the win. I know everyone is in awe of Pereira's technical striking and athleticism, as they should be, but he is also just two fights removed from losing a round to Andreas Michalidis. To lose a round to Michalidis and two fights later to be fighting inside the top 5 is just way too big of a jump. Sean isn't a great wrestler, but he is better than both Michalidis and Bruno Silva, who also took Pereira down. Pereira is more technical and has the power to put Sean out if he just carelessly comes forward, but I think Sean is capable of holding his own on the feet. His volume striking is legitimate, but it could get him countered in a bad way if he doesn't mix it up. I ultimately think he's going to wrestle his way to a win and get the title shot while he can.
Alex Volkanovski defeats Max Holloway Result: Volkanovski by decision (4-6)
This one is so close, but I sort of feel like Volk is still leveling up. I think he has more ways to win and that his superior athleticism will be at the forefront. He is the faster, stronger, and more powerful fighter. He is also the more diverse striker and better pure wrestler. I don't think he is better than Max by a lot, but I think he is just a touch better. What really is the deciding factor for me is the defense. Volkanovski doesn't have a granite chin as we have seen him dropped multiple times in the past, but he has always found a way to rebound and get the win. However, he does a much better job of actually avoiding damage. Max, despite having never been knocked out or even dropped or wobbled, relies almost entirely on his chin to hold up. He gets hit a ton and I don't think that is a good path to victory over Volk. Max typically relies on his ability to outpace his opponents and tally insane volume striking numbers. It is hard for Max to do that against Volk because Volk is faster, but more importantly because Max doesn't have the cardio advantage that he has over basically everyone else. I just sort of feel like this is Volk's time to make a run at the number one pound for pound spot and I'm leaning towards him in this one, even though it is so close.
Israel Adesanya defeats Jared Cannonier Result: Adesanya by decision (5-6)
As much as I like Cannonier, this really isn't a good matchup for him. I think Izzy will be able to limit Cannonier's low kicks because of his length and constant stance switching, which sort of limits Cannonier to a power puncher. It is possible that Cannonier really put in the work in the grappling department for this fight, which I really hope he did. However, I don't know if one camp is enough for him to reach the level that Marvin Vettori or even Robert Whittaker were at in the last couple of fights. Cannonier is a big strong guy, so maybe he could control the clinch, but I don't think that is likely either. I think the most likely scenario is that Izzy controls the fight from the outside with his kicks and forces Cannonier into a decision. He can either lay back and lose peacefully like Vettori did (in their most recent fight) or he will be forced to just rush him and go out like Paulo Costa did. It will sort of depend how engaged Izzy is, but he can definitely finish this fight if he wants to. If we get the same disinterested version of Izzy that we've gotten recently, Cannonier is more than good enough to win this fight. If Izzy takes him lightly, he could be in big trouble, but I just don't think that is the case. I think this is Izzy's fight to lose and he should win it at a pretty high rate.
What do you guys think? What are your thoughts on the card as a whole? Which fights are you most excited for? What predictions do you have? What are your keys to victory for some of these fighters? Thanks for reading and have a good one. I'll be back to update this after the card. Enjoy your night and enjoy the fights.
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 5 - 6
Previous Year to Date Record: 161 - 95
Updated Year to Date Record: 166 - 101
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