The main event of tomorrow's UFC 276 event will feature reigning, defending, and undisputed middleweight champion Israel Adesanya looking to add another defense to his resume against new challenger Jared Cannonier. Admittedly, on paper, this isn't the most exciting matchup for Izzy as it stylistically sets up for him to control the fight as he has in past fights that also weren't the most interesting fights to watch. Of course, that isn't Adesanya's fault, but I think coming into this fight, public interest is a bit down on him, at least compared to where it was before and immediately after the Paulo Costa. Izzy is always someone that I'm interested in watching fight as his mastery of kick boxing is truly something to behold. I've said this before, but sometimes it seems like Izzy is almost participating in a different sport because he's so advanced on the feet that it almost seems like he's lapping the competition. Cannonier has earned this title shot the hard way as he has had a journey and a half through this sport that we'll get into in a moment. Just because this fight doesn't seem to be a favorable matchup for him doesn't mean he can't win and it doesn't mean that he hasn't earned this opportunity. Way crazier things have happened in this sport than Cannonier finding a way to win this fight, so he is certainly worthy of this spot.
I just now realized that I did yesterday's preview in reverse order as I typically like to do blue corner first. We'll go back to that and start with Jared Cannonier. Cannonier is another guy with a bit of an odd MMA journey as I mentioned earlier. He's been fighting as a pro since 2011, meaning he's over a decade into this, but this will only be his 21st pro fight. He started his career all the way up at heavyweight and got off to a quick 7-0 start while becoming the Alaska Fighting Championship's heavyweight champion. He transitioned right from the AFC to the UFC and was knocked out in the very first round of his debut by Shawn Jordan. His next fight was his last at heavyweight and he was able to pick up his first UFC win. After that, he would drop down to light heavyweight where, for a guy who only had two UFC fights and hadn't really gained much footing, he faced some really tough competition. He would win his divisional debut against Ion Cutelaba before losing to eventual champion Glover Teixeira. He then got a TKO victory over Nick Roehrick before losing consecutive fights to Jan Blachowicz and Dominick Reyes. After that short losing streak, Cannonier would drop down to middleweight, where he is now. This correlated with his current run where he's won 5 of his last 6. The wins have come as he found an ability to consistently finish fights and it makes sense that a guy who used to be at heavyweight would have tremendous power when fighting down multiple divisions. He would get TKO wins over David Branch, Anderson Silva, and Jack Hermansson before slipping up against Robert Whittaker. He bounced back nicely since the loss with a decision win over Kelvin Gastelum over 5 rounds and then a brutal knockout win over Derek Brunson to earn the title shot. Stylistically is where I think some people aren't very excited about this fight because Cannonier likes to stand and strike. Standing at range with Israel Adesanya and trying to out strike him or just hoping to land the one big shot is pretty much a recipe for failure from the jump. He's simply too good to just hope to out kick box unless you're someone who also comes from a very serious kick boxing background. What Cannonier does bring is some serious power. In a division that has been dominated by Adesanya and Robert Whittaker, both of whom have below average power for the division, Cannonier brings the explosiveness to the fight. He has the ability to absolutely shut the lights off in a big way like we saw him do against Brunson last time out. If there's a better way to compliment someone's power than acknowledging that they dropped Kelvin Gastelum then I don't know what it is. I could probably hit Gastelum with a steel chair and he wouldn't even take a step backwards, so the fact that Cannonier sat him down tells you all you need to know about the power in his hands. Another plus that Cannonier brings is his physicality. As you may imagine for someone who used to fight at heavyweight and then got into shape to come all the way down to 185, Cannonier is a pretty big guy. He is very muscular and very strong as well. Against a taller, lankier guy in Adesanya, I think Cannonier will have to use his size in this one. Cannonier has always been a pretty tough guy, but his chin has been much steadier since he started moving down weight classes. He's only been knocked out twice and they were both before he came down to middleweight. For someone who is a bulkier, more muscular fighter, I had my skepticism on how his cardio would look, but he was able to go 5 rounds with Gastelum at a pretty nice pace. In the grappling, Cannonier isn't the best, but he isn't completely lost either. When he has found himself on top, he's shown both an ability and willingness to land hard ground and pound. The problem, and main weakness of his game, is that he isn't much of a wrestler. He's had his struggles both offensively and defensively wrestling and my worry is that he won't be able to mix it up enough. Obviously, I'm not too worried about his defensive wrestling because Adesanya isn't going to be shooting for takedowns, but I think to beat Izzy, you have to be able to mix in the wrestling. Cannonier has never really been one to even try to wrestle, but maybe that is something that he has added to his skillset in this training camp. It will probably take the performance of his career to get this one done, but the path is at least there.
When it comes to Israel Adesanya, I think people are running out of things to say about how great he truly is. He had an entire career in kick boxing as well as a handful of boxing matches before even making the transition to MMA. Adesanya began that transition while still involved in those other forms of combat and had his first professional MMA fight in 2012. He didn't start fighting in MMA competition consistently until 2015 and found himself in the UFC only a few years later in 2018 after starting 11-0. After knocking out Rob Wilkinson in his debut, he immediately started facing some stiff competition. His second fight was against Marvin Vettori (who was lesser known then than he is now) and that still stands as one of the closest fights of Adesanya's career all these years later. Wins over Brad Tavares and Derek Brunson had Adesanya on the fast track to a title shot. Izzy got the rub by defeating Anderson Silva and then captured the interim title in a fantastic fight with Kelvin Gastelum. He unified the titles by dominating Robert Whittaker for the entire 8 minute run time of that fight and has successfully defended his title 4 times since. Wins over Yoel Romero, Paulo Costa, Marvin Vettori, and Robert Whittaker have solidified Izzy as one of the best to ever do it at 185 lbs. Between the Costa and Vettori fights, Izzy attempted to become double champ by challenging Jan Blachowicz for the light heavyweight title, but fell short by losing a unanimous decision. Ultimately, Jan's size and strength proved to be just too much for the slender Adesanya, but he hasn't had any of those issues at middleweight. Stylistically, Adesanya is one of the most gifted and technical strikers we have ever seen in MMA. He is truly operating on levels that I don't think we've ever seen before. His ability to read his opponent and throw the perfect technique to attack whatever opening they give him is unparalleled. He combines his vast knowledge of striking with extreme height and length for the division. Adesanya almost always has the reach advantage both with his arms and legs. So not only does he know exactly how and where to attack his opponent, but he can touch them from a distance where they can't get to him. There is really no strike that Adesanya hasn't mastered. He can throw any punch with either hand to the body or head and the same goes for his kicks. He can land kicks at all three levels with either leg and he can do all of that from both south paw and orthodox stances. His ability to move so fluidly for a long, lanky guy is amazing to watch. He is able to read what his opponent wants to do and then just slides laterally out of the way and can circle out back to the center of the octagon. Not only does his movement set up his own strikes as he can slide just into and out of range, but it prevents him from taking almost any damage. Because Adesanya is so difficult to solve on the feet, most of his opponents have attempted to grapple him, but his movement has prevented him from getting pinned up against the cage for most of his UFC career. Speaking of grappling, I doubt we ever see Adesanya ever looking to wrestle offensively, but he has made incredible strikes in his ground game over the years. He has evolved into a very tough defensive grappler. His takedown defense is now some of the very best in the UFC and he has even shown some ability off of his back. I ended up reversing position against Marvin Vettori and ending up in top position. His get up game has grown significantly as well and even when he is taken down, he has developed the ability to get back to his feet pretty consistently. Izzy does an excellent job of controlling the pace of the fight, so his cardio has never been an issue. Even when he has been pushed, he never really seems to tire, but for whatever reason, no one really talks about his cardio. His chin also holds up pretty well as he has rarely been knocked out or even hurt across all of his combat sports career. I have some more to say about Adesanya, but I think it is a better fit for the keys section, so we'll just dive into that now.
I don't know if I would go as far as to say that I'm concerned about Israel Adesanya coming into this fight, but I am more down on him now than I was coming off of his loss to Jan Blachowicz. I didn't realize it in that moment, but really since that fight, something just doesn't seem quite the same. Izzy really hasn't fought with a sense of urgency since the Paulo Costa fight and even that was coming off of a slow performance against Yoel Romero. If Izzy fought every single fight with the focus and determination that he fought Costa with, then I think he would get a lot more praise outside of just during his fight week. It has felt, especially in his last two fights, that he is just sort of coasting and doing just enough to win and then getting out. I don't necessarily blame him and I'm certainly not sitting here saying he should just throw caution to the wind and strip away all strategy for the sake of entertainment, but I think there is a difference between a hard fought decision where the opponent just wouldn't go away and just doing the minimum required to win. In my opinion, Izzy has seemed uninterested recently and I think his performances suggest as much. Marvin Vettori is extremely durable, so I didn't expect him to just go in there and flatten him inside of a round, but it seemed like he just sort of resigned himself to the fact that he couldn't finish him, so he didn't even really try. Robert Whittaker is a guy that he has finished and in very devastating fashion, but Izzy really didn't seem interested in making anything happen. He has sort of just morphed himself into this fighter who is content to counter if his opponent comes forward and if not, he's just going to throw leg kicks from range. That is a perfectly effective strategy to win fights, but it isn't the best strategy if he wants to continue to grow his brand. It isn't even that I find leg kicks boring, because I don't. It just seems like there's a different level of intensity between this Izzy and the Paulo Costa Izzy and I wish we got more of that guy. The whole dynamic of the situation makes me wonder if Izzy could be the most vulnerable he's been. Izzy has become so passive, that it makes me wonder if someone brought the fight to him in a major way, if they could overwhelm him. It certainly won't be easy and Cannonier is going to have to eat some nasty counters to get there, but I think the path at least exists, even if it's not likely. Now that I got that part out of the way, I can get into what I think the keys are. To me, the burden here is on Cannonier to make something happen. He has to force the issue, otherwise he will get picked apart from range. Izzy is just too technical and fast to have a ranged kick boxing fight and come out victorious. The problem is that Cannonier's typical path to victory really plays into what Adesanya does well. Cannonier's offensive game is typically based on throwing power shots with his hands and leg kicks. Izzy will have the length advantage and he switches stances so often that I don't think Cannonier's leg kicks will really even be there that often. That really leaves Cannonier with just his power shots and while he could clip him and knock him out, I don't think there is a particularly great chance of that happening. I still contend that the path to beating Izzy is the Kelvin Gastelum route. That is probably the toughest fight Izzy has ever had at middleweight and ever since that fight, all of his opponents have tried to replicate what Gastelum did that night. The problem is, no one else close to the title really has that skillset. Gastelum throws bombs with his hands, has a granite chin, and has very good wrestling. Vettori is probably the closest thing to that archetype, but he couldn't walk Izzy down and force him into a dog fight the way Gastelum did. The biggest issue for most other fighters is that they either aren't capable or aren't willing to walk through Izzy's counters time after time. I think that Cannonier has to be willing to at least try. Beyond just catching him with a power right, I think the path is to get his hands on Izzy and try to hurt him in the clinch or on the ground. That isn't really Cannonier's game, but I don't see how he has any level of sustained success by striking at range. For Izzy, I kind of think this is as simple as just do what you do. Control him at range with the low kicks and front kicks to the body and then counter him when he comes into range. I really think Izzy can find the finish here if he wants to, but it remains to be seen how engaged Izzy will actually be. If we get a version of Adesanya who actually cares, this one may end inside the distance. If we get the same Izzy we've seen for the last year and a half, this one probably goes the distance.
What do you guys think? What are your predictions for the fight? How do you see this one playing out? What are your keys for both sides? Leave any and all thoughts in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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