We're back with another picks and tips for today's card and it is a PPV version, which always makes things feel a little bigger. I'm writing this significantly later in the day than I normally do, so it may be a late night. UFC 277 has pretty standard looking prelims, but the main card should actually be pretty good, so I'm excited. We're coming off of the back of UFC London, which was a decent afternoon for the picks, but the bets ended up in the red unfortunately. We'll look to bounce back this week. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. I don't have the time to mess around with this intro, so let's get it going.
Orion Cosce defeats Blood Diamond Result: Cosce by decision (1-0)
We're in for a treat to start the night as we get to see the second UFC fight for Blood Diamond. His debut didn't quite go as planned as he was almost immediately taken down and choked out, but he looks to turn it around here. Oddly enough, the UFC opted to give him someone else who is both willing and able to wrestle. Diamond is supposed to be a high level striker and he trains with Israel Adesanya, so that makes sense, but in the limited video I've been able to find of him, his striking doesn't appear to be anything out of the ordinary. I assume Diamond has improved in the wrestling, but I can't imagine it is going to be enough in this one. Diamond look pretty lost once the fight hit the mat. Cosce, as I said, is a willing and able grappler. I don't think he is an amazing wrestler per se, but he is a decent one at the very least. He is reliable to attempt takedowns and if he attempts them here, I imagine he's going to get them sooner than later. On the feet, Cosce isn't completely lost either. He is game to come forward and throw heat. He is wild and crosses the border into reckless at times, which does leave him open to being countered, but I can't imagine we see much striking here. The one concern on the Cosce side is his gas tank as he does start to slow down as the fight progresses. This would give Diamond the opportunity to stand with him and potentially counter him, but I just don't think the fight gets to that point. My guess is that Cosce takes him downs and pounds him out rather quickly.
Bets to consider: Cosce ITD -110, U1.5 total rounds +108
I don't think you can really look to play this fight from a money line perspective. Cosce around -200 is more or less correct in my opinion and he's currently at -205 on my sportsbook. I don't think I would really be looking to play Cosce ML unless he dropped below -170 honestly just because his cardio concerns are enough to scare me off of that. To keep it real, I don't think there is a number that I would play Blood Diamond at. His grappling looked almost nonexistent and we really don't even know if he is the type of striker that people say he is. I think I just need to see him do it before I would bet him against almost anybody. I think anything regarding Cosce by finish is playable here. You can try to guess if it is by submission or knockout if you want, but I think it is just easier to play inside the distance. Cosce isn't known for having a ton of submission ability, but Blood Diamond didn't seem to have much ground defense at all, so I don't feel confident to say if he is going to sub him or pound him out. The under 1.5 rounds at plus money seems like a good option to me as well. Like I've said a few times, I just don't see Diamond stuffing the takedowns or being able to defend himself on the ground for all that long. I think my play will be to take smaller plays on both instead of going big on one of them.
Nicolae Negumereanu defeats Ihor Potieria Result: Negumereanu by KO (2-0)
Another weird fight here for the second one of the night and this one has so many unknowns. I ultimately went with Negumereanu because I feel like I have a better feel for what I am going to get out of him. I guess I would classify Negumereanu as a grappler, but he really isn't a particularly great one. He has really struggled to actually get fights down as he averages under 1 takedown per 15 minutes and is only getting them at 18%. On the feet, he's willing to engage and has average power for the division with mediocre volume. The real weakness for him in the striking is his defense as he absorbs way too many shots. He is taking almost 6 significant strikes per minute, which is an absurd amount of damage. He has shown that he is one tough SOB though as despite taking that many strikes, he has proven to largely be pretty durable. Ultimately, even if he is taking a beating, he isn't going to quit and he proved as much in his UFC debut. Potieria is more of your traditional power striker. My problem with him in general is that he's hard to get a read on due to his level of competition. He hasn't really be a great defensive grappler historically as well, which doesn't matchup well against someone who is going to at least try to grapple. His main path to a victory is to land a huge knockout blow and while that is certainly in the cards, Negumereanu has shown himself to be durable, if nothing else. I have questions about how much cardio Potieria has and what he looks like once he begins to face some adversity. I have to go with the more proven commodity here.
Bets to consider: O2.5 total rounds +120, FGTD +158
This is a hard fight to play as there really isn't much to go on. If you were early on these lines and got Negumereanu at around +130 or better, then I think that was a good move just as a pure play of the numbers. We've had the line move to the point where Negumereanu is now -122, which isn't playable. If we continue to see the money on that side and Potieria finds himself approaching that +130 range as well, then I think that would be the side to go with. This is basically a coin flip fight to me and should be lined as such. I think the over 2.5 rounds and fight goes the distance is the way to play this fight if you want to. I said before that I don't think Potieria is going to get that early knockout that he probably needs. After that first 5 minutes, I think this probably just turns into a really sloppy fight where both guys are exhausted and Negumereanu pushes him up against the cage for long stretches. I don't think Negumereanu is going to be able to get a finish unless Potieria completely gasses and just basically quits and I think Neg is too tough to get finished himself. I think this is the play if you're looking for one.
Ji Yeon Kim defeats Joselyne Edwards Result: Edwards by decision (2-1)
Our third fight of the card is another one that is probably going to look a bit messy. This fight should take place exclusively on the feet and seems to me like it should be pretty close. Kim is a pure volume striker and I think she is actually a pretty solid technical boxer. She just has so little power that sometimes it doesn't really look like she's doing a ton of damage despite how much she lands. I think this is what has hurt her in her last couple of fights that saw close decisions go against her. Edwards didn't fight her normal fight last time out and I'm not sure if that was a stylistic choice for her particular opponent or something more concerning. She typically is game to move forward and put on the pressure, but in her last performance she was content to keep distance and land front kicks to the body over and over. That was enough to get her the win, but I don't think playing a technical outside kickboxing match is a great strategy here. She needs to get back to her old self and be the pressuring fighter in this one to give herself the best chance she has. I think this one will come down to Kim's volume versus the more impactful strikes from Edwards. Given that Edwards didn't look like herself last time out, I think that is enough to have me lean Kim's way in what I would otherwise consider a 50/50 fight.
Bets to consider: Edwards by decision +145, Kim by decision +160
As I said, this fight is essentially even to me and it is lined as such. That presents no real value on the money line side, so we are forced to go the prop route. I think this fight goes the distance a vast majority of the time, but the over and fight goes the distance lines are too juiced to get any real value there either. I think the best way to play this fight is to play either fighter by decision. If you lean one way or the other, this would provide you a decent enough plus money number to play the fight at. You could try to play the split if you really wanted to. In a 50/50 fight that is almost certain to go the distance, pick your fighter and make a small play on them to win by points if you're so inclined. I don't really feel passionate on this one either way though.
Michael Morales defeats Adam Fugitt Result: Morales by KO (3-1)
Fugitt will step in on short notice to fight Michael Morales in this one and he's in for a tough test. Fugitt's last fight was a knockout win in LFA, so he is coming from at least a respectable level organization and not some random regional promotion. From what I can tell, he seems moderately well rounded and has been able to finish fights with strikes and submissions. It's just hard to tell exactly where he's at compared to someone like Morales who is a legitimate UFC prospect. We also don't really know what kind of shape he's in because he took this fight at the very last minute. Morales on the other hand will be ready to go and is very, very good. He's extremely well rounded and should pretty much have Fugitt covered. Morales is a very solid wrestler and will attempt takedowns as needed. He's also a pretty decent striker and will land with good volume, while limiting damage fairly well. It seems like the deck is stacked against Fugitt here, so it will be more of an opportunity to see what he can bring to the table. He is basically nothing to lose here so, hopefully he goes out and puts his skills on display.
Bets to consider: O1.5 total rounds -102, FGTD +260
This is another tough fight to bet for a couple of reasons. Not only is Fugitt a complete unknown, but all of the Morales lines are juiced into oblivion. I think these lines are the closest things I could find to being playable while also not being complete dart throws. Fugitt has only been finished once in his 2 MMA losses, so maybe you could take a shot that this fight goes over 1.5 rounds, but that line isn't even that great. There's worse bets on this card than to take a poke at a fight goes the distance at +260, but this is just a pass spot.
Drakkar Klose defeats Rafa Garcia Result: Klose by decision (4-1)
We have another short notice fight this time, except Garcia is a proven member of the roster instead of someone making their debut. This is just one of those fights where people are sort of all over the place with their predictions. Garcia is a pretty solid fighter, especially in the grappling. He gets takedowns both frequently and efficiently with a dangerous submission game to pair with it. He's an ok striker with decent enough volume, but he doesn't have anything out of the ordinary in terms of power and he is a bit too hittable. My biggest concern with Garcia is that he doesn't have the best gas tank normally and taking this fight on short notice is probably only going to make that issue even more pronounced. Klose should have a major advantage on the feet as he is just a much better striker both in terms of landing his offense and his defense. Klose has just moderately decent takedown defense, but even if Rafa gets him down, I like Klose's get up game enough that I don't think he gets stuck on his back. I would be pretty surprised if Garcia jumps on a submission here as Klose has historically defended those pretty well. My biggest concern for Klose is that he has a tendency to not really pull away in fights. He is sort of content to just sort of cruise just ahead of his opponent instead of really making it clear and dominating them. Texas has been known for having some unusual judging, so that does make this one a little closer than it probably should be. Even if Garcia has some early success, I don't think he is going to be able to push the pace that he would need to in order to get a decision win.
Bets to consider: Klose by decision +105, FGTD -180, Garcia by decision +420
I think playing the money lines here is a trap. Klose wins fights with such a thin margin that I don't think you can justify a -235 price tag on him. That sort of leaves you with the Garcia side and I do get how people can talk themselves into it at +184. Garcia has the MMA skills that would be required for him to beat Klose, which sounds good at those odds, but I just don't think he has the cardio to win with any level of consistency. Part of me thinks most of his win equity comes from an early submission, but at the same time, if Klose can survive being backpacked by Beneil Dariush for an entire round without getting submitted, why should I believe that Garcia can sub him? In that case, I think the only route to play Garcia if you want to is to go by decision and hope that he can someone get takedowns in two separate rounds to get some top control time. Otherwise, I think playing Klose by decision is really the only way to play a side here. Klose is not a finisher by any means either on the ground or on the feet and if he wins, it would almost certainly come on the scorecards. I think having the fight goes the distance at -180 is honestly a steal of a price and am looking to play that somewhat heavily.
Don'tale Mayes defeats Hamdy Abdelwahad Result: Abdelwahad by decision (4-2)
We have another short notice replacement here as Hamdy Abdelwahad steps in on a few weeks notice to fight UFC veteran Don'tale Mayes. I hadn't heard about Hamdy before and when I started researching him, the first thing I found is that he is Egyptian Olympic wrestler, so I was pretty intrigued. You may assume that he would be very aggressive in his wrestling, but he actually really isn't. He is sort of content to just stand and strike, which is a bit strange because he isn't overly advanced or refined there at all. He basically just comes forward and throws overhand haymakers and that's about it. He seems to be moderately powerful, so he does have that going for him. His fights typically haven't lasted very long, so I do have doubts about the kind of cardio he is working with, especially on short notice. Also, the level of competition he has faced is...bizarre. He's legitimately been fighting guys who I don't think actually train. He has 3 legitimate MMA fights and 2 bare knuckle MMA fights. Of those 5, 2 of them came against someone named Matthew Strickland. Both were finished inside the first round and Strickland had never fought before and he hasn't fought since. I genuinely have no idea how he even got this fight. Mayes isn't the best fighter I've ever seen and I don't think we're going to be talking about him as a title contender anytime soon, but this is a fight that he should win at a pretty high rate. He's fought against and even beaten guys who are legitimate fighters. He is a decent enough striker and has very real power. His overall grappling has made huge strides as well. I think his power combined with the fact that he will have a massive reach advantage see him win this fight pretty early.
Bets to consider: Mayes by KO +160, U2.5 total rounds -166
This is another Blood Diamond type of situation where I don't think I could bet the underdog at almost any number. Hamdy being only +160 seems a bit insane to me. I don't even know what his path to victory even is. I mean, could he rush in and clip Mayes and knock him out? I suppose so. Mayes doesn't have the best striking defense in the world, but he has shown that against real fighters. I don't know if Hamdy is going to try to take him down because he really doesn't wrestle that often in these regional fights, so it's hard to even bank on him attempting takedowns, let alone landing them. I don't know that he can take power at all, let alone from someone as big and power as Mayes. We also don't know that he has the cardio to hold up for more than a round. While I don't think Mayes is some sort of world beater, I've seen him have legitimate success against some talented fighters. His size advantage is going to be noticeable and I think he starts landing hard shots from range pretty early in this one. I think he knocks Hamdy out, probably in the first round. I think playing him by KO at +160 instead of his ML, which is around -200 right now, is a much better price. Having this fight go under 2.5 rounds while the fight doesn't go the distance is at -205 just seems like a better price for me since my read on this fight is that it probably doesn't even go into the second round.
Drew Dober defeats Rafael Alves Result: Dober by KO (5-2)
This should be a really fun fight to watch for as long as it lasts. I go with Dober because he is the far more proven and consistent fighter. He is a very solid wrestler, with a historically good chin, and powerful, moderately technical striking. If there's any glaring weakness in Dober's game, it's that he is a bit too hittable, but his chin has made up for that. He has started to get hurt a little more often than he used to, so maybe his chin is starting to come down to human form slightly. He's also been submitted his fair share, which is somewhat concerning, but only a slight amount. Alves is the type of fighter that I have a hard time picking. He is extremely dangerous early. He is a big, strong, explosive athlete who has tremendous power in all of his strikes. He also has some really nice submissions and will jump guillotine if he has the opportunity. I think he can definitely club and sub Dober early, but after that, he's going to slow down and that is when Dober really puts it on him. Alves doesn't have the takedown ability to ground Dober in order to try for those submissions, so he's going to have to hurt him on the feet and drop him. He could do it, but with Dober's history of durability, I don't think that is a huge worry, despite any recent signs of mortality. More often than not, I think we see Dober win this one, probably in the late first round or in the second. Alves will come out hot, but I think Dober weathers the storm and then finds his own finish.
Bets to consider: Dober ITD +110, U2.5 total rounds -192
I really don't think there is any way this fight goes the distance, so to get the under 2.5 rounds at -192 seems like a pretty good price to me. The only way Alves wins this fight is by early finish and if he doesn't get it, I don't think he has the gas tank to withstand what Dober is going to put on him. With that said, Dober just doesn't get knocked out, so getting Dober inside the distance at any plus money seems like a reasonable way to look in my opinion.
Alex Morono defeats Matthew Semelsberger Result: Morono by decision (6-2)
This is a weird fight. For me, this one has kind of been the toughest fight to really figure out what my stance even is because I'm not really sure what I should make of Matt Semelsberger. He's moderately powerful, but his knockouts have come against guys who either have questionable durability or just aren't really UFC level. He showed competent levels of offensive wrestling in his last win, but he's also shown that he could get stuck on bottom at times. I also think Semelsberger may be a tad faster. The reason I ended up going with Morono is that I think he is a much steadier all around fighter. He doesn't have the high end skills in any single area, but he is at least competent everywhere. He doesn't have great power and he doesn't always look the most graceful while throwing his strikes, but he throws them with good volume and can land at a decent enough rate. My biggest concern for Morono is he lacks that elite level athleticism and explosion, which does limit him. He doesn't always absorb shots very well either and while Semelsberger's knockouts have come with some asterisks, I think he has the power to end this fight with his hands. Semelsberger could certainly knock him out early or maybe even wrestle him a bit, but I think over 15 minutes, I just trust Morono's all around ability a little more at this stage.
Bets to consider: Morono ML +134, Semelsberger by KO +260
I think on the money line side of things, Morono would be the side. The fact that we've seen Morono compete with and pick up wins over a much higher level of competition than Semelsberger means something to me. While Semelsberger has the edge in power, I'm not so sure that Morono isn't just the better striker. To me, this is much more of an even, 50/50 type of fight, and to get one side at +134, I think that is worth a look. If you're looking to go with the Semelsberger side here, I think his knockout prop is the play. If Semelsberger turns out to be the better striker, he is going to be landing hard shots on a guy in Morono who isn't the most durable guy in the world. I don't know that Morono could hold up in that situation, so if you're of the opinion that Semelsberger is just better, I think his KO prop is the way. I see no need to just say Semelsberger ITD because I don't think there's any way he submits Morono. I don't think points is too likely either because if Semelsberger is landing those hard shots he needs to in order to win a decision, I think he probably finds the finish. I suppose if you put a lot of stock into Semelsberger's wrestling then you could look to just play money line, but I don't really think we're going to see Semelsberger just laying on Morono for three rounds.
Magomed Ankalaev defeats Anthony Smith Result: Ankalaev by KO (7-2)
I don't take any joy in picking against Anthony Smith as I'm a fan of his, but I think this is a tough draw for him. Ankalaev is such a skilled fighter that it is hard to see a really path for anyone to beat him. He is extremely technical in all aspects of fighting and I think that wins out here a majority of the time. He is very technical on the feet and he pairs it with really good power. He also throws some pretty decent kicks, which you don't see as much from the Dagestani fighters. He's also a really good wrestler both offensively and defensively, but he really doesn't use it much. He seems to be much more comfortable striking at range than taking someone down, even when that is the easier route to victory. I think his best attribute is his ability to manage distance and not absorb virtually any damage at all. His chin has been touched a couple of times and he has gotten a little wobbly, but he gets hit so rarely that I'm not sure that should really be too much of a worry. The only real weakness in Ankalaev's game is that he is very low output, which sort of leaves his fights feeling closer than they probably were. Again, we're in Texas, so weird judging isn't out of the question here. That low output from Ankalaev is probably Anthony Smith's path to victory here. If he can find a way to come forward and just outland Ankalaev, I think he could win a decision. We've seen that Ankalaev can be hurt and Smith does have reasonably amounts of power, so I think he could knock him out as well. The problem is that I just don't know how much he can hit Ankalaev. It sounds great in theory to just pressure the low output fighter and throw all this volume at him, but Ankalaev is the much more technical striker and I think he would punish Smith on the counters. If Smith just waits for the openings and tries to sit down on a shot here and there for a knockout, he probably gets picked apart from range. Smith isn't a great offensive wrestler, so he probably won't be able to land his own takedowns. If Ankalaev does take Smith down, we've seen Anthony get stuck on bottom for long stretches at times. He does have some dangerous submissions and Ankalaev was submitted by Paul Craig, but are we really hoping for just that long shot submission? I just think Ankalaev has this fight covered in most ways and Anthony Smith's paths to victory are pretty narrow in this one. I have to go with Ankalaev even though my heart says to ride with Anthony Smith like I have most times in the past.
Bets to consider: Smith ML +410
I think the only way to bet this fight would be on the Smith side. Ankalaev is so low output that I don't think its a drastic impossibility that we see Anthony Smith be able to outland him and squeeze out a close decision. Smith could also potentially find a finish here. having him at +410 is an implied probablity of like 19%, which I just think is a decent number for someone who is fighting an opponent so low output, despite all of the reasons I listed above for why Ankalaev will probably win. Smith finish only is also +300, so maybe that is a different way to play it. I just think at +410, it might be worth a flyer. I don't think there is any real safe way to play the Ankalaev side in this one. He's money line is -590, which puts him at an implied 85%. Even if you think he wins this fight 90% of the time, there really just isn't a whole lot of value there to be had. That leaves you to pick a method of victory, which forces you to decide which version of Ankalaev you're going to get. Is he going to be interested in getting a finish or not? Is he going to take Smith down and ride him out on top or is he going to strike? Is he going to hurt Smith on a counter or pick him apart from range? I don't think I have really even a lean towards answering any of those questions, let alone a pick I have any conviction in. His decision prop is -105, so I don't really like the number there. His KO number is +170, which honestly doesn't seem bad until you remember that he probably could have knocked out Thiago Santos several different times in his last fight, but I guess he just decided that he didn't want to. I just don't know how you would play Ankalaev here with any degree of confidence.
Alexandre Pantoja defeats Alex Perez Result: Pantoja by sub (8-2)
This fight is getting no publicity at all, but this might be the fight I'm looking forward to the most on the card besides the two title fights. Pantoja is one of my favorite fighters to watch because he is just a wild man to the highest degree. He is going to be aggressive in everything he does, while being very well rounded. He isn't the most technical striker in the world, but he is going to throw heat and he's going to do so with solid volume. Pantoja isn't the best pure wrestler in the world, but he has a very aggressive submission game that has worked very well for him. If he has any weaknesses, it's that he has been able to be controlled by very heavy wrestling game plans at times. He has a pretty good get up game, so it would take someone who is willing to shoot 10+ takedowns, but it has worked against him in the past. He also does start to slow down eventually as he fights with such a high pace, but normally his opponent starts to slow down faster. His aggressiveness on the feet does sometimes leave him open to counters, but that hasn't really been too much of an issue. Perez is someone who I really just don't know what to think about. A pretty popular stat going around is that none of his UFC wins are still in the UFC, so rating him becomes pretty difficult. He also hasn't fought in 2 years, so we don't really even know what version of him to really expect. I think he is a pretty solid wrestler overall and he is a moderately technical striker. My concern on his side, besides all of those questions, is that I don't really know how he holds up to the pressure that Pantoja brings. Perez has also had a bit of an issue with sticking his neck into guillotines, which Pantoja has and will grab onto. My gut feeling is kind of that Perez dives right into a guillotine on a takedown attempt and ends up getting submitted.
Bets to consider: Perez by decision +340, Pantoja finish only -168
I think both of these are honestly pretty good looks. You could try to play the split on these if you really wanted to as well. I think the money line situation has gotten to the point where there really isn't any value on Pantoja and it isn't really worth the squeeze on the Perez side in my opinion. If Perez wins this fight, it would almost assuredly be by decision. He isn't going to submit Pantoja and I don't think he has a great chance of knocking him out either. His best path to victory would be to wrestle him relentlessly for 15 minutes. On the other hand, for Pantoja to only be -168, lower than his ML, for finish only is kind of strange to me. I feel like so much of Pantoja's win equity here is him being able to submit or knock Perez out. I think the odds that we see Pantoja win a decision are not great and the odds that Perez gets a finish are even worse.
Derrick Lewis defeats Sergei Pavlovich Result: Pavlovich by KO (8-3)
Picking Derrick Lewis fights is always a wild ride. He essentially doesn't follow any of the rules that you would normally use in order to determine a winner. In almost every fight he's in, he is losing the fight right up until the second that he decides to win it. Lewis has a right hand that can end anyone's night on the spot with no follow up shots required and he will look to land it. If he does, he probably wins. Pavlovich is honestly a lot of the same. He is a bit higher output than Lewis, but not enough where I think it is going to have a drastic impact on how this fight plays out. This will be one of those rare occurrences where Lewis is actually the smaller fighter as Pavlovich is absolutely massive. He also has the nuclear power in his right hand that can end anyone's night on the spot. This is about as 50/50 as a fight can get because it sort of just comes down to who lands the big shot first. Lewis is coming off of a loss where he seemed to go out a bit easier than he normally would, which was strange, but I'm not putting too much stock into it. I've seen Lewis compete with and beat significantly better competition over his career than Pavlovich, so I'll go with his experience in this one.
Bets to consider: U1.5 total rounds -178, Lewis by KO +155
Oddly enough, most people seem to be on the Pavlovich side here and I'm not sure where that confidence comes from. I know Lewis didn't look his best in his last fight, but he was winning it until he got knocked out. Meanwhile, Pavlovich knocked out 40 year old Shamil Abdurakhimov who has shown to have fading durability. How that leads to Pavlovich getting juiced up to -144 I'll never understand. That has led his KO prop to be at +100, which I don't really think is playable either. If he wins, it will probably be by KO, but I think this is a 50/50 with both guys looking for a KO. That doesn't lead me to playing either fighter at even money. The Lewis by KO at +155 is the number I would look to take and if his money line ended up getting closer to that +150 I would play that. However, those are just strictly plays of the numbers more than any supreme confidence in either side. I think the under 1.5 rounds is probably the way to go here as I think both of these guys are going to come out and try to land that big one first. There is always the possibility that this turns into a staring contest, but Pavlovich almost always sees his fights end early, so I think that will happen again one way or another. At +510, you could throw a dart at fight goes the distance though just because that staring contest does happen with Lewis every once in awhile.
Brandon Moreno defeats Kai Kara-France Result: Moreno by KO (9-3)
I did a full preview on this one, so I'll keep it brief. I have to go with Moreno here. He is the more experienced fighter in these scenarios. He's fought under this type of pressure as well as gone a full 5 rounds before. We've never seen Kai with this type of attention on him and we don't know what his cardio really looks like that deep into a fight. Kai is talented enough to keep the fight close in the early rounds, but I think Moreno has more upside here. Moreno is the better grappler, which he didn't do the first time they fought. Kai is also very willing to be the fighter moving backwards and we know Moreno will come out and put the pressure on him. Moreno has been pretty durable when he's not fighting Deiveson Figueiredo, so I think Kai's path to victory is pretty thin here. I have to take Moreno.
Bets to consider: Moreno 4, 5, or dec +115
I think the money line situation is more or less correct as it currently stands. Kai could certainly edge out a very close split decision here, but I don't know that he has a path that is significantly more than that. I suppose he could get a knockout because Moreno isn't amazing defensively, but he doesn't have a poor chin. He got hurt by Figgy, but he still hasn't been finished by him and Kai doesn't have that level of power. To me, as this fight goes on, I think we see that 5 round experience and overall pacing of Moreno take over. Moreno will have Kai skirting along the fence the whole fight and that will eventually start to wear him down. Moreno also has the option to look for takedowns and I think if he gets Kai down, he may be able to control him or submit him. I think those options present themselves later after Kai starts to slow down, so 4, 5, or decision at plus money seems like a pretty easy decision for me.
Amanda Nunes defeats Julianna Pena Result: Nunes by decision (10-3)
I also did a full preview on this one, so check that out for more detail. I don't think the first fight was a fluke and believe Pena could certainly win this one again, but I think Nunes is just the better fighter. The only question is if she is going to gas out again and not be able to fight beyond the 7 minute mark. While Pena's style forced that to a large part, we've never seen Nunes gas out that badly before then. Nunes won round 1 pretty decisively in the first fight and I think she could very well finish her here. Ultimately, I think Nunes is also the more technical fighter and could win this fight if it were very slow paced as well. At the same time, Pena could very well come out and execute the same exact game plan. She could come out, walk through Amanda's power, and finish her after she gasses. I really don't have a great feel as for which way it is going to go.
Bets to consider: Pena ITD +390
For me, I don't think I can bet this fight at all. I've twisted myself into proverbial pretzels over the last few days over this fight. I think -300 on the money line for Amanda is probably about right. If you are convinced that Amanda's heart isn't in it anymore or that she's just done, then obviously Pena has a ton of value. I think Pena's best, and maybe only, chance for victory is for the fight to look exactly like the first one. If that is the case, then I don't think Amanda has any chance of going the distance. If you think that is what is going to happen, Pena inside the distance at +390 is the line to look at in my opinion. If you're of the opinion that this fight is more competitive, then I think just passing is the route. I think Amanda could knock her out in the first round. I think Amanda could potentially slow the pace of this fight and either win a decision or find a late finish if Julianna gasses from all of the pressuring early. I think I am just going to be content to watch this one play out.
That is finally it from me on this card. As always, I'll be back to update this after the card and update my record and how my bets did. Leave all of your predictions and bets below. Let me know what you guys think of the card in general or a particular fight. My bets will be below. Thanks for reading and enjoy the card.
Official Bets
Orion Cosce ITD .5 units at -110 to win .45 units - .5 units
Cosce/Diamond U1.5 rounds .4 units at +108 to win .43 units - .4 units
Drakkar Klose by decision 1 unit at +105 to win 1.05 units + 1.05 units
Klose/Garcia FGTD 2 units at -180 to win 1.11 units + 1.11 units
Don'tale Mayes by KO .75 units at +160 to win 1.2 units -.75 units
Mayes/Abdelwahad U2.5 rounds 2 units at -166 to win 1.2 units - 2 units
Drew Dober ITD 1 unit at +110 to win 1.1 units + 1.1 units
Dober/Alves U2.5 rounds 2 units at -192 to win 1.04 units +1.04 units
Alex Morono ML .3 units at +134 to win .4 units + .4 units
Anthony Smith ML .2 units at +410 to win .82 units - .2 units
Alexandre Pantoja finish only 5 units at -168 to win 2.98 units + 2.98 units
Lewis/Pavlovich U1.5 rounds 1 unit at -178 to win .58 units + .58 units
Brandon Moreno 4, 5, or dec 1.25 units at +115 to win 1.44 units - 1.25 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: + 3.16 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 1.23 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 4.39 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 10 - 3
Previous Year to Date Record: 189 - 115
Updated Year to Date Record: 199 - 118
UFC 277 was a great return to PPV in a year that has kind of been just ok with the PPV cards. Off the top of my head, I think that was the most fun I have had during a PPV card this year, but I would have to go back through all of them to double check. That coincided with a nice night of picks as well, which doesn't hurt. We'll start by going over our losses to see where I misread the fight, if I did at all. Luckily, there aren't too many losses to go over. The first of the night came when Joselyne Edwards defeated Ji Yeon Kim. This was one of the closer fights to pick in my opinion and Edwards came out with her kick heavy approach again. Kim struggled to get past those kicks for much of the fight, which ultimately made the difference. She ended up being stuck at kicking range and really couldn't get her volume off the way she normally would have. I think I underestimated the physicality advantage that Edwards would have and, while she didn't really dominate in the clinch or grappling, it seemed like Kim was a little unsure of how to approach someone that much bigger than her. It looks like the fight was lined properly being a 50/50 fight with a slight lean towards Edwards. Our next loss came when Hamdy Abdelwahad defeated Don'Tale Mayes by decision. That was a strange fight and I guess I really shouldn't be surprised. Mayes is in the bottom third of the division for a reason and losing fights like this is part of it. He had the skills to win this fight, but he couldn't get the most of them or use them to the best of his ability. Hamdy wrestled more in this one and he actually looked pretty good in doing so. I honestly don't know why he doesn't use it more because he should have an advantage there over a lot of guys in the division. Mayes looked like he was going to be able to find the finish in the second round, but he just stopped punching and allowed Hamdy to recover. Hamdy showed a lot of good things though. He has decent power, solid wrestling, and he showed toughness, so maybe he will have some kind of UFC career after all. Our final loss was Derrick Lewis and I don't think I really misread the fight all that much. After a slow-ish start to the round, both men opened up and Pavlovich landed the first big shot and ended up getting the finish. There is some debate around the stoppage and while it wasn't the best look when Lewis immediately stood up and seemed to be perfectly fine, I don't think it was awful. Lewis was blocking a lot of the follow up shots, but it isn't like the referee can see in real time whether the punch lands perfectly or glances off of the hand or forearm. All he can see is Lewis getting bombed on and then take a header into the canvas, so I don't think it is an egregious stoppage, but it seemed to be a tad quick. I've said it before, I think stopping a fight 3 shots to early is probably better than 3 shots too late and in that case, this is the kind of thing that you'll have every now and again.
We have to go over the wins now, which should be a bit longer since we had a nice week. Orion Cosce picked up a win over Blood Diamond and I think my read on the fight ended up being correct, just not quite to the extent that I thought. At the end of the day, Cosce did use his wrestling and it was just too much for Blood Diamond, but it wasn't as overwhelming as I thought it could be. Diamond showed some degree of improvement, but I don't know if he's going to be able to turn it around fast enough unless the UFC can give him some more favorable matchups. Our second win was Nicolae Negumereanu and he had probably his best performance to date. I think my logic was right on this one in general, but the specifics surprised me. I think taking the more proven fighter, over the long haul, is the right play in these situations, but I didn't expect Neg to dominate and finish this fight. I thought Potieria's real path to victory was knockout, but Neg was going to be too durable. I thought we would have seen a cage clinch control decision win for Neg, but he ended up doing a ton of damage there. Michael Morales registered a knockout win over Adam Fugitt in a fight that was more competitive than most people imagined. At the end of the day, the athleticism and explosion of Morales was the deciding factor, but Fugitt represented himself well and made the fight closer than anyone was giving him credit for coming in. The Drakkar Klose win was pretty much how I expected it to go. He can't bring himself to just cleanly 30-27 someone. It always has to be a close 29-28, but his cardio held up and after Garcia started to lose a bit of gas, his takedowns weren't coming as easily. That was pretty much the standard Drakkar Klose win. Speaking of standard style wins, we also go Drew Dober. He summed it up himself. He has a chin and a left hand and that's all he needs. He took a few bombs, but after the first 5, Alves really slowed down until he got dropped by a body shot. I think I pretty much had the right read on that fight as well. We got Alex Morono right and that was one I was a bit unsure of. I felt like that was the toughest opponent Semelsberger had fought and it showed. I think the eye injury really ended up being a factor as Semelsberger started getting hit with Morono's right hand over and over because he couldn't see it coming. I thought the fight was just close and that I trusted Morono a little more based on his level of competition and it worked out this time. The Ankalaev win came due to unfortunate circumstances as Anthony Smith ended up being injured. The first round sort of went how a lot of people expected, with Ankalaev controlling distance and doing just enough to outland Smith. I thought Smith was really behind the 8 ball going into that fight, but he didn't look horrible early, but was just slightly behind. Alexandre Pantoja did what he does best and ended up overwhelming Alex Perez. I thought his pressure may cause an issue and I even said I was feeling the submission win. I didn't expect it to be that dominant and quick, but that is more or less what I was expecting. Brandon Moreno got the win and he was able to do what I thought he would for the most part. He was able to out land Kara-France slightly and was mostly the guy going forward. Kai was landing nice low kicks, but struggled to find success with his hands in the early stages. He started finding the mark more in the third, but then got dropped by the body kick at the end of the round. I thought Moreno would just be slightly better, but I wasn't really expecting an early finish like that. Our final win was Amanda Nunes. Like I said, I don't think the Pena win was a fluke, but clearly, the version of Amanda that she got that night wasn't the normal Amanda. This version was the one we have come to know and the fight wasn't really that close outside of a hail Mary submission attempt in the middle rounds. I thought it was possible Pena could pull a repeat, but that was never really in the cards. She didn't really push the same pace in the first round and then was hurt badly in basically every round after that. Amanda controlled everything from start to finish.
The last thing we have to go over is the bets. We're back in the positives this week, so that's what we like to see. The night got off to a bad start as we lost both bets on the Cosce vs Blood Diamond fight. Diamond showed enough defensive grappling that he didn't get finished, which is sort of what I was banking on. There was also the possibility that Cosce would gas out and get finished himself, but we didn't get that either. I wasn't too heavy on it, but that wasn't an ideal start to the night. We won our next 2 on the Drakkar Klose win, getting him by decision and the fight to go the distance. I don't remember ever feeling like the fight was close to being finished, so that one cashed somewhat comfortably. I wasn't 100% convinced Klose was actually going to get the nod until it was read given Texas judging history, but luckily they saw it for him. I thought he should have got the win, but you just never know what is going to happen with MMA judging in general, especially in Texas. We lost our next two on the Mayes vs Hamdy fight and I probably should have known better. Mayes had a chance to finish, but he just stopped going for it. Hamdy didn't ever look like he was going to finish the fight and we ended up losing almost 3 units on that fight. There's always a risk in trusting low level fighters to do what they should and we were on the wrong end of that this time. We had another hot streak over the next couple of fights. Dober winning under 2.5 rounds was huge. The fight actually extended longer than I thought, but still finished just in time. I thought that after Alves gassed out that Dober would have an easier time finishing him, but he landed the body shot that dropped him and got the finish soon after. That cashed the under 2.5 and Dober inside the distance, it just cut it a little closer than I anticipated. The Morono win was more just a play of the number, but it did work out. I didn't see any reason for this fight to not be basically even, so to get one fighter at +130 was enough for me to make a small play. Morono also had the strength of schedule in his favor, which I thought was relevant given how so many were convinced Semelsberger was going to get the knockout, despite his knockouts having some asterisks. We took the small shot on Anthony Smith and it didn't work out. That was also just a play of the numbers because I don't know that someone who fights with such a narrow margin should ever be that heavy of a favorite against adequate competition. Ankalaev is really good, but he doesn't really pull away in fights, which just kind of limits my ability to bet him on big lines. My biggest bet of the night came on Alexandre Pantoja finish only and I think that line was simply incorrect. I have no idea how they came up with that number. Perez had very limited finishing potential in that fight, while Pantoja had a lot, but they had it lined closer than the money line? I just don't get it. I think that was easily the bet I was sweating the least. The Lewis/Pavlovich under was one that I felt like I had to take, but there's always the possibility that Lewis gets into a staring contest that makes me anxious. I felt like one of them would try to force the issue, but I didn't go too heavy on it just incase. Obviously, we saw the fight play out how it did and they both started trading pretty quickly and it didn't even come close to finishing the first round, so that cashed easily. We lost the Moreno 4, 5, or decision in unfortunate fashion to end our night though. Kara-France was having his best round in the third and with under a minute left in the round, he gets folded by a body kick and the fight ends with like 30 seconds left in the third. We missed out on cashing by like 30 seconds from a body shot knockout, which is just unfortunate, but I'm not going to get greedy. We finished up just over 3 units on the night and I'll take that. Anything in the positives is a successful night, even if there were a few spots to do better.
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