Alright guys, the picks are getting revamped slightly. Everything that I used to do in the picks section will be exactly the same. In addition to that, I'm going to start listing some better advice and information. The way that I want to do it is I want to list at least one bet to consider for each fight and then have a set of official bets at the very end. I'll list the bet to consider within the actual breakdown and have the official picks at the bottom. We're coming off another solid week of picks and are looking to keep it going. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. I'm excited to add the betting aspect to this. I'll also be tracking my wins and losses there as I do with the picks record. Let's get into it.
Jessica Penne defeats Emily Ducote Result: Ducote by decision (0-1)
We have an interesting fight to start the night with Emily Ducote making her UFC debut. I'm not sure how I feel about Ducote in terms of a prospect just yet, but she is a solid fighter. I think she is reasonably technical in all aspects, while being a better striker than a grappler at this stage. Penne on the other hand is not known for being a great striker and gets hit way too much. At 39 years old, taking too many punches is certainly a concern. I do lean Penne here though as I think her style of fight matches up very well with what Ducote's struggles seem to be. Ducote is somewhat willing to be backed up onto the fence, where she can be controlled at times. When taken down, Ducote is very willing to fight off of her back and can get stuck for long stretches. That is essentially what Penne wants to do in all of her fights as she is aware of her disadvantage in the striking against most opponents. She is usually willing to come forward and get into grappling exchanges and I think she is the slightly better grappler overall in this one. Additionally, Penne is on the larger side for the division, while Ducote is a bit smaller. Having the smaller fighter who is willing to go backwards against a larger fighter who wants to take the fight down or clinch against the cage doesn't sound like a great recipe for success. On top of that, Penne is the much more experienced fighter and picking someone making their debut against a solid veteran is a trap that many people, including myself, fall into too often.
Bets to Consider: Penne ML +128, FGTD -156, Ducote by KO or decision -115
I think this fight is much closer to even, so getting Penne at plus money, at least at the time I'm writing this is a reasonable bet to make. Ideally, that line would be a tad wider, but I still think there is some value to be had there. The fight goes the distance at -156 translates to an implied odds of 61%. Women's strawweight fights go the distance at a rate of about 67%, so purely based on precedent, there is some value to be had. For this fight specifically, I don't rate either fighter as a finisher. Penne has some subs on her resume, but Ducote is a reasonably technical grappler, so I don't see her getting submitted. There is some risk of a Ducote knockout, but I don't think she really has that type of power. Penne has been knocked out twice, but those came against Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Jessica Andrade. Unless you think Penne is just done because of her age, I don't see why this wouldn't go the distance. Finally, if you are of the opinion that Penne is done or are just in general on the Ducote side, I think by KO or decision is the way to go. I don't think a submission for Ducote is likely at all unless it is a club and sub type of situation. The clearest path to victory for Ducote is on the feet at range. She can pick Penne apart from range and depending on Penne's durability at 39, she may fall or she may not. In either case, your ticket would be able to cash, but at a much more reasonable -115, which is a lot easier to stomach for a debuting fighter in my opinion.
Dwight Grant defeats Dustin Stoltzfus Result: Stoltzfus by decision (0-2)
This is almost guaranteed to be a weird one. Dwight Grant is one of the hardest fighters to pick fights for because he is pretty content to stand there and not do anything up until the moment that he decides to do something and finish the fight. Grant is extremely powerful and explosive. He can pretty much knock anyone out in the division (he's moving up in weight for this one) if he connects. The concern for Grant is that he is just so low volume with his strikes. It isn't out of the realm of possibility for this fight to go the distance and Grant to land only 30 strikes. If there is one good thing that comes from this it is that Grant's power is so significant that it also makes his opponents very tentative. For as low volume as he is, he still absorbs less than he lands. When fighters have come into the pocket against Grant, he is much more willing to engage and he can land bombs with the best of them. As for Stoltzfus, I'm not really sure what to make of him. He is also very low volume and is just an ok striker in his own right. He is a more willing wrestler, but he's not a particularly efficient one. Grant has at least ok, if not decent, takedown defense and will have the athletic advantage. I think that kind of leaves us with a low volume kick boxing match and sets us up for a razor thin split decision. If the fight is indeed low volume, that can lead to some weird judging decisions, but I think that is a scenario that favors Grant optically. His punches will be a lot faster and more powerful, so that could lead the judges to favoring him. This is kind of a toss up, but Grant's power is the most reliable thing in this fight. I've also seen Grant compete in the UFC with legitimate competition, where I just have way more questions about Stoltzfus.
Bets to consider: Dwight Grant Finish Only -146, Monitor the ML situation
This is generally a fight that I would be looking to stay away from. Grant fights are so unpredictable that I don't know that it is worth twisting yourself into a pretzel trying to figure out what would happen. The one line to consider is Dwight Grant in the finish only market. This means that the ticket cashes if Grant gets a finish and loses if Stoltzfus gets a finish, but a decision win for either just voids the bet. Stoltzfus doesn't really have a clear route to a finish in my opinion as Grant isn't easily held down if he gets taken down. I think a vast majority of the finishing upside here is on Grant and I do sort of lean that this fight is going the distance anyways. There's been a fair amount of line movement on this fight, so I would monitor where that is at leading up to the fight. As I currently sit here, the Fanduel odds are Grant -134. If Grant gets down to around -120, I think that is a reasonable number to consider playing. I get people who see Grant as a favorite and just want to auto-bet a Grant opponent at plus money, but I just don't think Stoltzfus is that guy. If there happened to be a late run on Grant and Stoltzfus got back to around the +130 range, I think you can begin to consider it and especially if it got all the way to +140, but it seems to be moving in the other direction. If Grant continues to fall, I think he is the play. I've seen a lot of other really smart people looking at over 1.5 rounds or begins round 3 and I don't hate it necessarily, but I don't feel like sweating out those bets counting down the seconds hoping Grant doesn't decide to throw punches until those points. I can see Grant just standing there and doing nothing for two rounds, but I don't think it is any more or less likely than Stoltzfus just walking into a bomb. I think passing on this fight as it currently stands is probably the right move, but the Grant finish only is a decent look and just keep an eye on the money lines.
Dustin Jacoby defeats Da-Un Jung Result: Jacoby by KO (1-2)
This is one of the weirdest lined fights of the week for me. The fight opened about even, then moved slightly in Jacoby's direction. After that, we've gotten a rush on Jung to the point where I'm seeing Jacoby at +100. I'm not really sure how we've gotten there because it is pretty clear to me that Jacoby is the better fighter in this one. Jacoby is a legitimate high level kickboxer who does as well with his kicks as he does with his hands. I expect his low kicking game to be working in this fight as Jung has a tendency to leave that open. Jacoby is very advanced technically and is going to simply be the best and most advanced fighter Jung has ever fought. Jung brings a slightly more well rounded skill set, but I don't think he is at the level of Jacoby just yet. Jung has the power and he could certainly find a knockout here, but Jacoby isn't going to stand in front of him and I don't know that Jung has the footwork to really cut off the cage and force Jacoby into close quarters exchanges. Jung also brings some grappling, but I think his stats are a bit inflated after fighting some guys who just weren't on his level. Jacoby's takedown defense has been improving and even when he does go down, he is typically able to work up to his feet reasonably quickly. Jung has gotten a lot of matchups against very similar fighters that I think favored him. He has gotten a lot of lower volume strikers who couldn't grapple with him and Jacoby is largely the opposite of that. He is a competent defensive wrestler who is going to throw back a lot of volume. I don't think Jung is so much better in the grappling that he can control Jacoby for at least two rounds and on the feet, I know he is the less technical fighter who won't be able to keep up with the volume. I think Jacoby wins this fight at a very nice rate.
Bets to consider: Jacoby ML +100, FGTD -110
To me, I think Jacoby as an underdog here is wild. I think he should be much closer to a -150 to a -160 favorite. He is clearly the better striker technically and will throw significantly more volume. He has the better footwork and won't just stand in front of Jung and trade with him. Jung is open to be kicked on the leg and I think Jacoby will be more than happy to do that over and over. I've seen some people talk about Jung's ability to pressure, but he has largely fought opponents who are more than willing to just move backwards on their own. Jung has some skills, but I can't watch him fight to the death with Sam Alvey to a draw and then three fights later see him as a favorite over Dustin Jacoby. That simply does not make sense to me. I get that Jung took down William Knight a bunch of times and Jacoby got taken down a bunch by Ion Cutelaba, but are those really the same situations? I think Jacoby is a better wrestler than Knight and I think Cutelaba is better than Jung. I think the fight goes the distance is a good look as well. The big danger to a finish is Jung landing a bomb, which could happen, I just don't see it as being particularly likely. Jung has the power, but I don't think Jacoby is going to give him those openings. He has the better footwork and will be able to maneuver around the cage and avoid all of those huge shots. Jacoby doesn't have amazing power in his strikes and isn't a particularly huge knockout threat historically. Jung may have a slight grappling edge, but he really doesn't have a submission game that is all that dangerous at the UFC level. His power could come into play in ground and pound, but if Jung postures up to land those power shots, Jacoby is good enough to use that space to immediately start working back to his feet. -110 is an implied 52% and I think this fight goes the distance at closer to 65%.
Bill Algeo defeats Herbert Burns Result: Algeo by KO (2-2)
This fight seems like it may end up being a tale of two fights. This fight during the first round and this fight after the first round project to be drastically different situations. Algeo is a moderately well rounded fighter who is a better striker than a grappler. He is reasonably technical on the feet and is going to throw strikes with really good volume. He doesn't have a ton of power in his shots, but he is going to consistently land something for the entire 15 minutes. He is just a decent wrestler and an ok overall grappler. It isn't a weakness, but it isn't really a strength either. Burns struggles on the feet and doesn't land very many strikes at all. He also absorbs way too much damage. Burns needs this fight to take place on the ground, where he will have the advantage. His pure wrestling isn't amazing, but it is still pretty decent. His BJJ is the strength of his game and he can legitimately submit anyone in the division. If Burns can get on top or get to Algeo's back with a lot of time left, he could very well pull of the submission. The issue with that is that Burns pretty much gasses out after the first round. If Algeo can survive the first 5 minutes without being submitted, he is going to have a massive cardio advantage and should be able to keep the fight standing and volume strike his way to a decision win. It honestly wouldn't even surprise me if Algeo got the late finish because of how empty the Burns gas tank will be by the third round. The one area of concern on the Algeo side is that if he does get taken down, he has a tendency to give his back in order to try and get up. A lot of fighters give their back to get up and it isn't the worst strategy in certain spots, but doing that against someone like Burns could be the beginning of the end. However, outside of a round one submission, I think Burns' path to victory is pretty limited. I think we see Algeo win by decision at a pretty high percentage here.
Bets to consider: Burns by sub +380, Burns by 1st Rd sub +950, Algeo Rd 3 or decision +140
If you really want to play the Burns side of this fight, by submission is really the only way in my mind. He's +172 on the moneyline and going with his most likely way to win bumps that to +380. More specifically, his clearest path to victory is a first round submission, which gives you +950. Obviously, I would go very light on those as I don't think either is likely, but if you want to play Burns, I think those are the routes to do it. If you're like me and are on the Algeo side, I think this is the way to play it. Algeo doesn't have the pure power to get an early knockout, but I think he could get one late. As Burns gasses out after the first, I don't know how much damage he can take. Algeo isn't really one to push for the finish, so I think this one gets to the third where Burns just either can't take any more or goes to a decision. I think this fight is probably around Algeo -180 or so, so the current line of -215 is just too wide for me to play. Going with the 3rd or decision gets you all the way to +140, which is much easier to swallow. The concerns there are the early Burns sub or Burns cardio being worse than we thought and he can't make it out of the second round. I sort of don't think a round 2 finish will be the result though as Algeo will push his pace, but he just isn't the guy who is coming out and looking to finish the fight. He is going to fight his fight and let the finish come to him. I think that sees him have a really nice second round and then either finishes it in the third or Burns just barely surviving to go to decision.
Ricky Simon defeats Jack Shore Result: Simon by sub (3-2)
This fight I think is certified as the people's main event at this point. How this fight is on the prelims with Waterson vs Lemos as the co-main is something I will never understand. This fight should be really fun to watch and really close. Both men are extremely well rounded and there really isn't much to talk about in terms of weaknesses. Shore comes into this fight as more of a striker I would say as he will have the technical advantage. He is really clean on the feet and throws with good volume, while doing an excellent job of limiting the damage he absorbs. Shore is a pretty solid grappler as well and will shoot for and get takedowns frequently. He isn't especially efficient, but he is persistent. If there is a weakness in his game, it feels to me like Shore has a bit of a ceiling. For as technical as he is in all aspects, he may lack that high end explosion to really compete with the elite of the division. It does seem like he possesses at least decent power on the feet though. Simon on the other hand is much more of a wrestler and I think he will have the advantage there. Simon is much more of the guy who is going to relentlessly wrestle without getting tired. I think he is going to get ahold of Shore and force a pace on him that I'm not sure Shore can maintain into the later rounds. Simon has that extra degree of explosion and strength as well, which I think can be the difference. On the feet, I do favor Shore's technicality. Simon isn't quite as active and overall just isn't as good. However, Simon has improved significantly over the years and isn't too far removed from having competitive exchanges on the feet with Rob Font. This fight is really close to me, but I just think Simon's willingness to wrestle and ability to push the pace gives him a slight edge.
Bets to consider: Simon ML +134
For me, the side to be on in this fight would be the Simon moneyline. For a fight that should probably be closer to even or maybe even Simon -120, to get him at plus money certainly presents value. I don't think betting Shore at -164 is justifiable as this fight is just too close to have that much confidence in either side. For Shore, this is also clearly the toughest fight of his career. To take that chance on him at that number just doesn't feel right to me. Simon has faced the much tougher competition in addition to having a clear stylistic path here. I took a look at the FGTD, which is sitting at -200 right now, which I think is about right. If you are someone who wants to play the Shore side, I would definitely go Shore by decision. I don't think there is a great chance that he finishes Simon and getting Shore by decision at +165 is easier to swallow than paying -164 unless you're someone who really rates Shore's ability to knock Ricky Simon out.
Punahele Soriano defeats Dalcha Lungiambula Result: Soriano by KO (4-2)
This is kind of a weird fight and it is especially weird in it's placement as the feature prelim. This fight sort of features two similar fighters and I kind of think it gets pretty sloppy. Both men throw big power punches, have some questionable defensive tendencies, and have limited cardio. I think we get a round of both guys throwing some big power shots and then two rounds of them breathing out of their mouths and just trying to do enough to win the round. I think Puna is the better fighter and would have a significant wrestling advantage if he chose to use it. However, my general feel is that he isn't going to use it, which leaves us back where we started. I favor Puna slightly because I think he is a more sound fighter and is going to throw a little more consistently. I think he has a very slight cardio advantage as well. Additionally, when Puna is fresh, he is actually willing to throw strikes and go for it. Even when he is fresh, Dalcha is just extremely low volume and just won't throw very much at all. Dalcha could certainly knock him out and if it goes to decision, your guess is as good as anyone's. Ultimately, I just think Puna is the better fighter here and I lean his way.
Bets to consider: Dalcha ML +198, FGTD +160
I think this fight is going to be a pass for me, but if you're looking to play something, I think Dalcha's moneyline would be the spot to look. Like I said above, in the first round we're going to get two guys throwing power shots who have questionable defense. That doesn't typically add up to one fighter being -250, but that is the situation we have here. I don't think the general layout of this fight translates to either fighter being all that heavy of a favorite and at that number, I think it is ok to at least consider playing Dalcha. The fight goes the distance is at +160, which isn't a great number, but I think if you really want to play this fight, it can be justified. If this fight makes it out of the first round, both guys are going to be tired and the fight is going to get very sloppy. With two guys who have as much power as they do, I expected the fight goes the distance number to be a bit better, but I think this number is probably closer to about right. While there isn't a ton of excess value, I think it is playable if you really want something on every fight if you're hanging out with a ground of friends or something and just need something on every fight.
Miesha Tate defeats Lauren Murphy Result: Murphy by decision (4-3)
This is both an important fight and an interesting fight. Miesha Tate is coming down to flyweight for the first time in her career and successfully made weight earlier today. Not only did she make weight, but she looked good in doing so. With that part out of the way, I think this fight is kind of a weird matchup. Tate is a wrestler and she's been a pretty solid one throughout her career. Her success in actually getting take downs has been on a bit of a fight by fight basis, but I do think she will be the better grappler here. On the feet, Tate isn't fantastic, but she isn't completely awful either. She uses her striking as more of a supplement to her grappling and can catch people when they're expecting a level change or throws just enough to set up her takedowns. Tate does have a tendency to absorb damage when her takedowns aren't working though. Murphy on the other hand is more of a blood and guts type of fighter. She doesn't do any single thing particularly well, but she is good enough in all areas and gets the most out of what she has. She isn't a great grappler and is also on the older side, so combining that with the assumed size advantage Miesha will have and I think Murphy will be at the grappling disadvantage here. On the feet, Murphy's striking is just ok. She has a tendency to take too much damage as well and she isn't especially powerful either. Her best quality on the striking is that she is willing to be aggressive and throw strikes. The problem in this fight for me is that Murphy has a tendency to get out struck, even by opponents that she shouldn't be out struck by. She also has gotten stuck on the fence at times and I think the strength advantage for Miesha may only make that worse. To simply things, I am looking at this fight for Murphy and she has to both stop Miesha's takedowns and out strike her on the feet and I'm not really sure if she can do either, let alone both at the same time. I think this is probably Tate's fight to lose.
Bets to consider: Monitor Murphy ML, Tate by decision +100
This is a tough fight to bet as there's just not all that much value in my opinion. On the money line side, I don't think you can bet Tate at the -215 that she's currently at. To me, that is entirely too steep, especially because we still haven't seen Tate actually compete at 125 lbs. In theory, that would mean that I think Murphy is playable at +172, which I think she is, I just wouldn't feel good about it. Purely from an odds perspective, Murphy is the side, but I just don't like this matchup for her. For me, I would wait to see if Murphy got closer to +185 or +190 before I played it, but it is most definitely playable now if you have more conviction than I do. If you're on the Tate side, I think decision is probably the way to go. Tate really isn't much of a finisher and Murphy is really tough. I think getting Tate by decision at plus money is a solid spot, but there's still not a ton of excess value there in my opinion.
Shane Burgos defeats Charles Jourdain Result: Burgos by decision (5-3)
This fight feels like one where we have two different versions of the same fighter. Both Burgos and Jourdain are wild strikers who throw a ton of volume with good power and absorb a lot of damage back. Burgos does have slightly higher volume and absorbs slightly more though. This fight sort of feels similar to the Shore vs Simon fight in a sense that we have two fighters are very even and fight styles that matchup interestingly with one another, but there is a noticeable strength of schedule edge and this time it is in Burgos favor. Burgos has fought some really tough competition in his career, while this is probably the toughest test Jourdain has had so far. In terms of their styles, the one thing that concerns me for Jourdain is that he is willing to be the one moving backwards at times and we know Burgos is going to come forward. If Jourdain is up against the cage for long stretches, that may not go well for him. Ultimately, this can't be a very confident pick though because Burgos does and has absorbed so much damage in his career. Taking shots over and over again isn't great for someone's chin in future fights and especially with someone who hits as hard and as frequently as Jourdain does. I don't think Burgos is chinny, but with all of the damage he has absorbed, he doesn't strike me as someone who is going to be doing this in his late 30s and that decline does have to start at some point. I think Burgos is slightly more technical and he may just be at a level that Jourdain isn't ready for just yet, I do think he wins this fight at a decent rate.
Bets to consider: Monitor Burgos ML
This line has kind of moved back and forth a bit, but it is currently sitting at Burgos -170 for me. I honestly think that is probably about right. Personally, I wouldn't feel comfortable playing it until it dropped a little closer to -150. I think -160 is playable, but that is sort of in the grey area for me. I've seen people who are very comfortable playing this at -170 and while I don't think that is an awful number, I have a hard time playing that kind of chalk on someone who takes as many shots as Burgos does against someone who is as dangerous as Jourdain, but that's just me. If more money comes in on Jourdain and we see Burgos fall, then that is the move I would look to make. Part of what also kind of has me just looking to pass on this fight regardless of the numbers is that I expect this fight to be so crazy and close enough that I don't really know if I trust the judges scorecards in a fight like this.
Sumudaerji defeats Matt Schnell Result: Schnell by sub (5-4)
This is a fight that I'm much more interested in watching play out than I am picking or betting it. Sumudaerji is still a really young fighter and he is supremely talented. I think his striking is really good and he possesses real power for the division. He manages distance extremely well, especially for someone with his limited experience and I expect him to not only have the technical striking advantage, but a noticeable speed advantage as well. The weakness in Sumudaerji's game is his grappling. All of his career losses have come via submission. Schnell comes into this fight as at least a competent grappler. He has fairly technical BJJ skills and given the weaknesses we've seen from Sumudaerji, I think it is safe to say that Schnell has the skills to submit him. The problem is that Schnell almost never wrestles. He has never attempted more than 2 takedowns in a single fight in his career and even when he does attempt them, he is only landing them at a 33% rate. I feel like he would dominate from top, but I really am not sure if he can get there. Even if I knew he was going to try, I'm not sure I'm convinced he can get the fight down. That leaves us with a kickboxing match and Schnell is at least a competent striker who throws with decent volume. The big issue with Schnell in the stand up is that he does take a few more shots than you would like and his chin is very unreliable. If Schnell can't get this fight down somewhat easily and early, I sort of think he gets knocked out at some point. Sumudaerji is just too clean and too fast on the feet for Schnell to really last long stretches, especially at range.
Bets to consider: FDNGTD -192
I don't really think this fight is playable from the moneyline perspective on either side. The grappling upside from Schnell is enough for me to not want to play Sumudaerji at -280. At the same time, I can't really trust Schnell to even try to take the fight down, so I have no interest in him, even as a huge underdog. The only look that I think is worth anything more than a flyer is the fight does not go the distance at -192. That is a fairly big number, especially for men's flyweight, but I just really don't even know what a decision looks like in this fight. If Schnell gets him down, then it seems like a given that Sumudaerji gets submitted unless he's made this dramatic improvements. If Sumudaerji can stuff the takedowns and keep it standing, it feels like a matter of time before he finds Schnell's chin and puts him down.
Li Jingliang defeats Muslim Salikhov Result: Jingliang by KO (6-4)
This fight is kind of weird. Muslim Salikhov is not very active at this stage of his career and he is only getting older now. At his best, he is a low volume striker who did an excellent job of managing distance and absorbing virtually no damage. He has pretty decent power as well and still maintains enough pop in his strikes to knock Jingliang out. As a grappler, Salikhov gets takedowns more than I would have thought, but he really doesn't do a ton with them. He really doesn't seem all that comfortable in grappling exchanges and I wouldn't expect him to shoot for them here. The concern for him is that he's starting to age and his chin isn't holding up the way it used to. His low output is also concerning because as his physical skills have declined with age, he is getting hit more as well. With Jingliang, I feel much more comfortable with what I am going to get. He is going to throw strikes as a nice rate and has a reasonable amount of power as well. Outside of winging a wild haymaker to start the Chimaev fight, I like that he has sort of mellowed out and refined his game with age as well. He hasn't been nearly as reckless as he was some years ago. I think that will help him here as if he just comes out swinging wildly, Salikhov still has the ability to counter him and hurt him badly. As long as he keeps himself under control, I think his volume and power will be enough to beat Salikhov here.
Bets to consider: Jingliang ML +134
I think this fight is actually pretty even for the most part and maybe I could even be talked into Jingliang as a slight favorite. That obviously means that I see value here with Jingliang being at +134. If this was a prime version of Salikhov, I think this line may be correct, but this version of him just brings me too many questions to have this fight capped any better than even for him. He's clearly slowing down and his volume has declined even lower than it used to be. He isn't as quick as he used to be and is taking shots more often now. When he gets hit, he isn't absorbing them as easily as he once did and finds himself panic wrestling. If he was a better overall wrestler, I think maybe his path would be a bit clearer, but he's just not that guy at this stage of his career. The power is still there and the technical ability is still largely there, but the declining physical traits having me thinking this is Li Jingliang's fight ever so slightly. At +134, I think there is legitimate value to be had.
Amanda Lemos defeats Michelle Waterson Result: Lemos by sub (7-4)
This is an odd fight and especially odd to be the co-main event, but here we are. Waterson is making her return and she looks to be in much different physical condition than the last we saw her. She is much larger and more muscular and I think that should help her here. On the feet, Waterson is pretty reliable to want to be at range and throw a lot of distance strikes and front kicks to the body. She throws with ok volume, but not really plus volume. She doesn't defend strikes particularly well, which is a huge concern against someone with the power of Lemos, but Waterson's chin has never really come into question. Waterson has been a passable grappler at times, but she doesn't get takedowns particularly efficiently and she really doesn't even try for them all that often, even in fights where it seems like she needs to. For Lemos, she is coming off of a loss to Jessica Andrade where she looked overmatched. I wouldn't read too much into it as it was just way too much too soon and Waterson is a more appropriate level of fight. Lemos is a pretty good distance striker and may be the most powerful puncher in the division, even considering Andrade. Lemos is going to throw with really good volume and has just ok striking defense herself. She has been an ok defensive wrestler, but I think against a higher level grappler, she could be controlled on the ground. The main concern for Lemos is her cardio. She didn't hold up at all against Angela Hill and was lucky to get that decision. Ultimately, I don't think Waterson is going to push the pace enough to put her in the spot that Hill did. I don't think Waterson is likely to wrestle either because if she was, she probably would have done so against Marina Rodriguez. I think there is a path for Waterson as she is a reasonably technical striker and if she can push a high enough pace, she can tire Lemos out and take the second and third in a razor thin decision, but that is really the only path I see for her. I still don't find that to be likely as Waterson doesn't move forward the same way Hill does and doesn't push the same pace that Hill does, so I kind of think Lemos picks up the decision win here.
Bets to consider: Lemos by decision -110, FGTD -210
I really don't see how you can play the moneyline for either woman here. Lemos is a huge favorite at -340 and while I don't think that is too far off, there's simply no value in playing that number with someone who has the cardio issues that she's displayed. On the other side, Waterson is +260 and while that is a huge number for someone who has wins over competition that is way better than the best win that Lemos has, I just can't quite get there. I don't see a scenario where Waterson can win a clear 29-28 decision. To me, the one and only path I see as being realistic for Waterson is that she loses the first, the second is really close as Lemos starts to gas, and then she wins the third. That comes down to whether Lemos did more in the first half of the second round or if Waterson did more in the second half. Even at +260, I just can't bring myself to hope to be on the right end of a split decision. In a vacuum, I think -340 for Lemos against anyone in the rankings is a steep price to pay, but I can't go with the other side here either. Maybe if I trusted Waterson to wrestle more, that would change my opinion, but I just don't foresee her really pushing the grappling here. A number I like a lot more is Lemos by decision. Waterson has never been knocked out and her chin held up really well against Rodriguez and that was over 5 rounds. I think Lemos has more power, but won't maintain that same level of output over only 3. If Waterson can take the best Lemos has to offer early, I don't see how this fight gets finished because Waterson has very little path to finishing this fight unless Lemos gets so tired that she basically just passes out in the cage like Rodolfo Vieira against Fluffy Hernandez. I think playing the fight to go the distance, even at -210 is perfectly reasonable and Lemos by decision all the way at -110 is a pretty decent look as well.
Brian Ortega defeats Yair Rodriguez Result: Rodriguez by KO (7-5)
I kind of hinted at this pick in my preview, but I like Ortega here. I won't go as deep as I did in that preview, but I feel like Ortega has more ways to win. Ortega has shown a lot of improvements in his striking recently and showed much more refinement in his range striking especially. His grappling is obviously his bread and butter and where he will likely win and lose this fight. I do like the improvements Ortega has made in his wrestling as well and I think that is going to be huge for him. As for Yair, I do think he is the better striker and he is the better athlete here, but I worry about his wrestling. If Yair can force this to be a full 25 minutes of kickboxing, then I think he is probably the favorite, but I would just be surprised if that was the case. Yair has been taken down by fighters who aren't as good of wrestlers as Ortega is now. While Ortega isn't a great wrestler, Yair isn't either. To me, that kind of leads me to think that Ortega can at least get some takedowns and I'm not sure if he really even needs more than one. I don't think Yair is completely lost on the ground, but in terms of submissions, few are on the level of Ortega. I can't imagine that Yair can survive more than a couple of takedowns before Ortega puts him in a very compromising position. While Ortega's striking defense does worry me, he also has been very durable. I'm positive that Yair can connect and hit him very hard, but Ortega just took the best shots Alex Volkanovski had to offer and he didn't get finished there. That kind of leads me to believe that Rodriguez won't be able to finish him here. I think Ortega has a slight edge in overall grappling and I think that Rodriguez has a slight edge in overall striking with Ortega having a vast majority of the finishing ability.
Bets to consider: Monitor Ortega ML, Ortega by submission +195
As things currently sit, I think there may be a very small bit of value on the Ortega moneyline, but not enough where I'm rushing to get it. He is currently -178 and I kind of think that is really close to about right. Maybe I could talk myself into thinking he is closer to -200, but his inconsistencies in his wrestling have me second guessing that. If I wake up and see this close to -160, I think that will be enough for me to make a play, but as it currently stands, I kind of think I'm just going to leave it be. Ortega by submission at +195 is the lowest it has been all week and I kind of think it is in the same place as the moneyline now. Maybe there is a very small amount of value on that number, but not enough where I would feel great about playing it. With the way this card is looking, I think there are enough other spots that I like more that I don't feel particularly compelled to play these numbers, but I think you could be justified if you did.
This is way longer than it used to be, but I hope you guys like the new format. Betting and capping are as popular as they have ever been and I'm excited to take my stab at it. Let me know what you think of how I have this set up and what changes I should make to the structure. Let me know what you guys think in general. What do you think of the card? What fights are you most looking forward to? What predictions do you have? If you're new here, I always come back and update the results and calculate my new yearly record in the picks and now that I am including the betting stuff I will keep a running total of that as well. I will list my official bets right below.
Official Bets:
Penne ML .2 units at +130 to win .26 units - .2 units
Grant ML .2 units at -110 to win .18 units -.2 units
Jacoby ML 2 units at -102 to win 1.96 units +1.96 units
Algeo round 3 or decision .5 units at +150 to win .75 units -.5 units
Simon ML 1 unit at +130 to win 1.3 units +1.3 units
Sumudaerji/Schnell FDNGTD 1 unit at -192 to win .52 units +.52 units
Jingliang ML .5 units at +134 to win .67 units +.67 units
Lemos/Waterson FGTD 1.5 units at -210 to win .71 units -1.5 units
Net Gain/Loss
+2.05 units for the event and +2.05 units for the year
Thanks for reading everyone. Leave your thoughts and comments below. Have a good Saturday and enjoy the card.
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 7 - 5
Previous Year to Date Record: 173 - 105
Updated Year to Date Record: 180 - 110
Coming out of this event only 7-5 hurts as it feels like we were so close to having a really nice week. We'll start by going over the losses as usual. Emily Ducote was simply too much for Jessica Penne. She was too fast at range and the low kicks were causing serious damage. Penne wasn't able to really initiate hardly any grappling or even clinch situations. She really couldn't even be the one moving forward very often. Ducote looked really fast and I'm excited to see where she goes from here. We also lost out on Stoltzfus vs Grant, but that fight was a little more of what I thought. Stoltzfus was able to have more wrestling success than I predicted, which is what got him the win. When the fight was standing, I thought Grant was winning and had Stoltzfus opted to try and keep it at range, he probably would have lost. He was able to close the distance without eating a big shot and get to the takedowns. Once the fight was grounded, he wasn't letting Grant up either, which I thought Grant would have an easier time doing. Big first UFC win for Stoltzfus nonetheless. Our next loss was Miesha Tate to Lauren Murphy and I still can't figure Murphy out. She just finds a way to edge out these close rounds and win decisions. She just has this knack of doing just enough and there is something to be said for that. I definitely underrated her strength, which stopped Miesha from getting any takedowns pretty early in the process. Tate really never even got deep on any shots. Miesha wasn't completely outmatched in a sense that all three rounds were reasonably competitive, but Murphy very clearly won all 3 rounds in my opinion. Huge win for her if she wants to work back to another shot at Valentina Shevchenko. Our next loss is Sumudaerji to Matt Schnell and what do I even say about that fight. It looked like we were going to lose early as Schnell had the fight grounded and I didn't think Sumudaerji was going to survive, but he somehow did. In the second round, Sumudaerji was blasting Schnell over and over and he just wouldn't go down. Schnell would get hit and freeze like he was buffering and then shake it off and continue fighting. He seriously did it like 5 times. As a guy who has had durability concerns in the recent past, I have no idea how he did it, but it was awesome to watch. He eventually gets the takedown and goes right into mount and is destroying Sumudaerji from the top, but then gets reversed. He throws up a triangle from his back and chokes him out cold. I can't even be mad at it because it was absolute bedlam. Our last loss of the night came in the main event and was due to unfortunate circumstances. Brian Ortega suffered the shoulder injury in the first round after getting tangled up with Yair in an awkward grappling transition. It went down as a TKO, but it could have been a submission as well. I kind of hope they run that fight back at some point as that is a matchup that I would like to see before all is said and done. The hope is that it is just a dislocation with no further structural damage and Ortega can avoid yet another shoulder surgery. While we're on the topic, shoutout to Herbert Burns as well. His knee seemed to be messed up judging by his reaction and the photo of Gilbert having to carry him. As someone who has had knee problems in the past, I know how awful it is and hopefully he lucked out and it isn't as bad as it seems. His leg was in a brace and he was on crutches leaving the arena, so it didn't seem that great, but we'll hope for the best until we learn otherwise.
As for our wins, we did fairly well. Dustin Jacoby vs Da Un Jung was the most hotly debated fight of the week and Jacoby got the first round knockout. I can't say I predicted him to win that way, but I did think he was the much better kickboxer. I guess it shouldn't be surprising that he was able to find the chin and at his size, a lot of the power just comes naturally. I would have been interested to see how that fight played out over the entire fight though. I think I pretty much had Algeo vs Burns figured out. Algeo was caught in some very dangerous positions and could have been submitted a couple of times, but he fought his way out and then put it on Burns. We all knew the gas tank problems that Burns has and with his injured knee, that was all it took. It is unfortunate that Burns had to get hurt because he had successfully made weight and suggested that maybe his conditioning would have been improved. Unfortunately it didn't seem that way and now he may have to go through all of that rehab all over again. I hope that he avoided some severe damage and maybe it isn't as bad as it originally seemed. Regardless, good win for Algeo and lets rebook the Billy Q fight as quickly as possible. Ricky Simon made one of the biggest statements of the night by handling Jack Shore. He won the first round with his pace and pressure and then clipped him with a nice right hand to drop him before locking in the submission. Shore has a lot of hype behind him and rightfully so, but the way Simon handled him should have him in a position for a really nice opportunity next time out. He just looked like the better fighter and I think my assessment of Shore being a bit ordinary in the athleticism and explosiveness was right. He just looked slow next to Simon. Puna Soriano did his thing in his win over Dalcha, but I'm not really sure what his ceiling is. He is clearly physically gifted, but he has to refine his overall MMA skill. I would like to see him wrestle more and he needs to improve his cardio so he isn't dropping rounds to someone like Dalcha, but obviously the power and willingness to fight is there. Shane Burgos just edged out a close decision win over Charles Jourdain in a questionable decision. I thought Jourdain won, but the judges saw it differently. In surprising fashion, Jourdain was able to win most of the striking exchanges, seemingly without too much of an issue. Burgos was forced to wrestle his way to a win, which he did successfully. I even said in my betting breakdown that I wanted to stay away because the nature of the fight made me think that we were going to get a weird judging decision. Not to give myself the old Barry H, but come on, that's pretty good. Li Jingliang got back in the win column and I wonder if Li has one real push in him before his career is all said and done. He's not a perfect fighter, but he's pretty damn good and is someone that is a tough out for most. He is vulnerable to grappling heavy styles, but I would like to see him get a chance to fight up the rankings. The final win is Amanda Lemos and this is the type of fight I thought she should have got last time. Giving her Andrade after getting a questionable decision win over Angela Hill was only setting her up for disaster, which is more or less what we got. This fight against Waterson was the appropriate step and she passed that test. She needs another moderate step up next time, but she looked good Saturday. I didn't expect her to come out and find a finish like that, but the pace of the fight was going the way she needed it. I thought she lost the first round, but it was slow enough paced that she was going to be able to have a chance to win the final two, which she was doing before finding the choke.
We have one more section to do now, which is to go over the bets. The first two were really small plays on Jessica Penne and Dwight Grant that didn't go our way. Penne simply looked outmatched by Ducote in every way and couldn't get the fight in the clinch at all. I was fading a fighter as a nice sized favorite in their debut against a more battle tested veteran and I think that general strategy was probably the right one, but just not in this matchup. I thought getting Grant at a pick 'em was the right side as well. I thought his explosiveness would win out, which it was, but he couldn't keep the fight standing in the last two rounds and almost got finished in the second. He was winning the third and would have won the fight, but he just couldn't keep it standing. Ultimately, it seems like that -110 area wasn't actually value and was actually just the correct line. Anyone who got either fighter at plus money made the right read on the fight looking back on it now. My biggest bet of the night was on Dustin Jacoby as a slight dog and that cashed really without too much issue. A lot of people were going back and forth on this one all week, but I felt good about Jacoby all week. I really trust his skillset against the tier of fighter that he has consistently getting. As he moves up the division, I have my questions, but not fighting unraked guys for the most part. Losing the Algeo round 3 or decision bet hurt the most. I feel like I absolutely nailed the breakdown almost 100% and then Burns couldn't hold up. Obviously the knee problem threw a wrench into the mix, but it looked like his cardio was done even at the end of the first round. He simply had nothing left to give and he couldn't make it into the third like we needed him to. That is an unfortunate one, but I hope Burns is ok and hopefully he makes a full return to competition soon. I felt I was on the right side of the Simon bet all week as well. Even if he lost, I felt confident that Shore wasn't going to look -165. I expected the fight to go the distance and be a close 29-28 decision, so getting either side at +130 was the side to play. Simon was the higher upside fighter as well and had the better strength of schedule. I felt he could have been a slight favorite, so to get him at plus money was a pretty easy call, even if it hadn't worked out. In retrospect, playing a -192 number for a fight to not go the distance at men's flyweight is a bit riskier than I probably implied, but I didn't go super heavy on it and I just really didn't see how that fight was going to decision. I thought Sumudaerji was going to be submitted if the fight hit the mat, which he ultimately was, but he did show improvements to his ground game. If the fight stayed standing, I didn't thing it would go to decision either given Sumudaerji's striking acumen and power combined with Schnell's durability concerns. Ultimately, Schnell channeled Glover against Jiri and was taking shots no one thought he could and he was going to get that finish one way or another. Even if Sumudaerji rides out the rest of that round from top position, I don't see how either takes much more damage in the third without the fight being stopped. Obviously, in hindsight, I wish I would have played bigger on Li Jingliang, but given how the first round went, I think my assessment was correct. The first was pretty close and I thought Salikhov won the round. Ultimately, Jingliang was able to maintain his pressure and eventually hit Salikhov with shots he couldn't take and found the finish. I thought my read on that fight was pretty accurate and I'm glad I was able to cash that one. The final one was our biggest loss of 1.5 units and it does hurt a bit just because I thought I was in the clear. After the first round, I expected a bit of the steam to come off of Lemos's punches and that most of the finishing outcomes of the fight were done. The only thing I was really even thinking about was if Lemos completely gassed and we got another Herbert Burns type of situation where he just couldn't continue, but I didn't think Waterson was really going to push enough of a pace to get us to that point. Of course, Lemos just snatched the neck and got the guillotine finish, which just isn't something I had really not concerned to be all that much of an outcome. All things considered, I'm glad I came out in the positives on my first week of tracking and I hope that we can continue to be in the positive.
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