We're back again and we've been on an extended streak of being very mediocre. A couple of weeks ago we had a decent card of picks but other than that, it has been way too long of just hovering around 55% or so. We'll look to get back on track with an interesting card here in UFC Vegas 58. After a PPV it is always a little strange to get back into the flow of a fight night card, especially one that offers virtually no name value outside of the main event. While the names may not be there, I do think we should be in for an entertaining enough afternoon of action. There are some interesting matchups as well as individual performances that I am looking forward to seeing and that is honestly good enough for me. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Let's get into the break down.
Ronnie Lawrence defeats Saidyokub Kakhramonov Result: Kakhramonov by decision (0-1)
If you're a returning reader to my weekly picks, you probably could have guessed that I would be taking Lawrence as his style is one that I feel safe in rolling with over a large sample size. Lawrence is a high output, high volume fighter with pretty good cardio. His striking isn't anything special, but he is competent on the feet. He is a relentless wrestler who will shoot for takedowns over and over and over again. He lands over 9 per 15 minutes and gets them at a 78% success rate while defending them at 100% in his UFC career. Kakhramonov on the other hand is a grappler himself. He is a solid wrestler, but not particularly efficient. He does stop takedowns at a pretty decent rate, but he is going to have to deal with an absurd amount of them from Lawrence. On the feet, Kakhramonov is very low output, albeit with at least decent power. If this fight goes to decision, it should go Lawrence's way at a pretty decent clip. The danger is that Kakhramonov is more developed in his ability to finish fights both via submission and knockout. He has more power in his strikes and is more willing to attempt submissions. In this fight, I think the knockout is more likely as Lawrence is more comfortable on the ground and would be better suited to defend the submissions. The knockout is of slight concern as Lawrence does get a bit reckless on the feet at times. He is so focused on pressure that he does have a tendency to have his chin out there to be hit, which if it goes uncorrected, it is going to catch up with him at some point. I don't ultimately think that will be this fight for him as Kakhramonov isn't too much of a counter puncher and I think Lawrence's pressure and volume, both in strikes and takedown attempts, will get him a win here.
Kennedy Nzechukwu defeats Karl Roberson Result: Nzechukwu by KO (1-1)
This is just one of those fights. Roberson is the noticeably more technical fighter in this one, but he is just so low output that I can't pick him here. He is under 3 strikes per minute and I don't think his grappling is good enough to get Kennedy down. Roberson has all of the kickboxing skills that should match up well with Kennedy, but he just doesn't use them enough. On the other side of this fight is Kennedy Nzechukwu, who is almost the exact opposite. Kennedy isn't an especially technical fighter, but he is absolutely huge for the division and is a really good athlete for his size. When you watch him, it doesn't look like he's throwing his shots very hard, but at his size, all he has to do is touch his opponents to do damage. Kennedy is a bit inconsistent with his pacing as well. When he lets his hands go, he typically does so with good volume for his size, but sometimes he just finds himself frozen and unable to let his combinations go. The concern here is that because Roberson has such a technical advantage that Kennedy gets frozen because he is afraid of getting countered. While those open counters should be there, I don't know that Roberson is willing or able to throw them at a good enough pace to make a dent. If Kennedy comes out aggressive and ready to throw like he was during his first few UFC fights, I think he gets the win here. He has such a size advantage that he should be able to land his jab early and often. I think he uses that size to land shots and stay at a range where he doesn't get countered, even though he hasn't always managed the distance as well as he could. I think Kennedy's volume wins out over Roberson's technical skill, but I don't feel good about it.
David Onama defeats Garrett Armfield Result: Onama by sub (2-1)
This is a bit of a weird fight as Armfield is stepping in on very short notice after Onama's original opponent pulled out earlier in the week. I do like some of what we've seen from Onama so far in the UFC after he impressed in his debut that also came on short notice. He was beating Mason Jones on the feet for stretches of that fight in impressive fashion. His grappling doesn't seem to be all that great, but, that was Mason Jones who is a very solid grappler. His power looked good in that fight and his subsequent knockout win, so I have to go with him in this one. I hadn't heard of Armfield before this opportunity and honestly, I'm still not really sure what to think about him. He actually lost to Onama as an amateur, but it did go to decision. As a pro, he has fought down at bantamweight and I can't imagine his cardio is going to be at 100% for this fight. He seems moderately well rounded, but his level of competition besides Onama and Ronnie Lawrence is questionable at best. Onama and Lawrence are clearly the best fighters he's ever competed against and he lost both of those fights. The circumstances are stacked against him in this fight, but I'm interested to see how Armfield competes in this one. I do like what I've seen from Onama, but even under these circumstances, -900 seems like a stretch.
Cody Brundage defeats Tresean Gore Result: Brundage by KO (3-1)
Tresean Gore is a pretty athletic guy, but I think that is the best thing he has going for him right now. He is moderately powerful and he's not awful technically, but he is very raw. The building blocks are there, but he needed to put a lot of work in during this camp and in subsequent ones if he wants to one day reach his potential. I'm interested to see what improvements he has made for this fight. My main concerns for him are his cardio and his low output. He looked to be tiring in his last fight against Battle and he wasn't even throwing all that much. He is just so low output that I think his only real path to victory is by knockout here. I think Brundage should be able to win this fight based on his ability to control the fight. He's not an especially high output fighter either, which does concern me slightly. If this fight ends up mostly a staring contest, Gore will be able to do more damage over a low number of strikes. However, I think Brundage has good enough wrestling to get this fight down when he needs to. I don't think Brundage is an amazing wrestling, but he should have an advantage there. With Gore having limited cardio as well, I'm not sure how many times Gore can get back up once he's put down. If Brundage had better volume in his strikes or was just a little smoother on the feet in general, I would be more confident in this, but don't think that is there. Gore can certainly find the knockout, but I think Brundage would be more likely to win a decision and is more likely to find a submission, so I think this is his fight. The grappling and cardio advantage have me leaning his way.
Antonina Shevchenko defeats Cortney Casey Result: Shevchenko by decision (4-1)
Kind of an odd fight here, but I think it is solid match making. Both women aren't very active and are probably approaching the ends of their respective careers. I've sort of twisted myself into a pretzel trying to figure this one out, but I am leaning towards the Shevchenko side here. I kind of think this fight largely stays standing and in that scenario, I think Shevchenko is the more sound and skilled striker. She has a legitimate striking background and is the more technical of the two women. Her offensive volume is just slightly lower, but she does a better job of limiting the damage that she absorbs. Casey is a willing striker, but she isn't an especially technical one. She is more of someone who wants to come forward and try to throw hooks around her opponent's high guard. This leaves her open to being countered and explains why she absorbs a decent amount of damage as well. Shevchenko is going to have opportunities to counter and I expect her to take them. If this fight gets into grappling exchanges, that is when things will get dicey. Neither woman is an especially great wrestler and their takedown numbers suggest as much, but I think I would give the edge to Shevchenko there. She has mixed in offensive wrestling at times and while she doesn't appear to be especially dangerous from the top, she is at least competent. I think it would behoove Casey to try and get this fight down, but I'm just not sure that she can, even though Shevchenko's takedown defense is average. Casey doesn't get takedowns at a very high rate at all, but she does have a decent looking bottom game. The problem with that is that she is content to fight off of her back and try to get submissions from there without an elite level bottom game. We don't see a ton of submissions from bottom in MMA these days and I don't think Cortney Casey's BJJ game is dangerous enough to pull those off against someone as experienced as Shevchenko. It sort of feels like Shevchenko has her covered across the board, but not by enough that I feel super confident in how the fight actually plays out.
Ricky Turcios defeats Aiemann Zahabi Result: Zahabi by decision (4-2)
This is an interesting one. We get two very contrasting styles here and I'm not really sure what to make of it all. Zahabi is a pretty solid technical fighter in all regards. He is moderately technical on the feet where he possesses really good power for the division. In fact, his power is probably his best attribute. As you may be able to guess given that he is the brother of Firas Zahabi, he also has a good BJJ game. The problem there is that he isn't much of a wrestler, so when the fight reaches the ground, he is usually the one on bottom. While being a really good technical striker with crazy power on the feet sounds great, it is only great if you actually throw strikes and Zahabi just doesn't. His output is just so low in the striking that it feels like he is limited to a knockout in this fight. Turcios is much the opposite where his game is based purely around volume and aggression. He is going to come forward and throw a ton of strikes and maybe even look for a takedown here and there. The concern with the Turcios side is that he feels a bit reckless in a dangerous way. He isn't an especially explosive athlete and someone with that athletic advantage could counter him and hurt him badly. There is definitely a world where Turcios is so concerned with pressure that he just walks right into a right hand and gets put out cold by Zahabi here. However, I think that the more likely scenario is that Turcios can avoid the one big shot and volume strike his way to a comfortable decision win.
Michael Johnson defeats Jamie Mullarkey Result: Mullarkey by decision (4-3)
As with every Michael Johnson fight, we're basically flipping a coin here. When it comes to Johnson, it really comes down to which version of him we are going to get. Some times he comes out and fights up to his potential and looks great. Other times he just doesn't look great at all or doesn't take the path of least resistance and loses fights that he seemingly should have won. Johnson is a really good boxer and has maintained his speed as he's aged pretty well. His jab is still one of the best in MMA and I expect that to be an important tool for him in this one. He isn't a great grappler, but he has decent takedown defense. Once he is taken down though, he has had trouble getting back to his feet. Mullarkey is an interesting fighter in his own right. He brings a ton of forward pressure and just an overall willingness to fight. He throws strikes with ok volume and is a willing wrestler. He doesn't get takedowns all that efficiently though, so I think Johnson can stay standing, at least early on. On the feet, Mullarkey takes way too much damage and that is what has me on the Johnson side. Johnson should have a significant technical striking advantage, while being the faster and more powerful fighter. He should be able to get to Mullarkey's chin and I think he can hurt him. I think Mullarkey's best path will be later in the fight if he can weather that early storm and tire Johnson out. If he can keep up that forward pressure, he can probably get to his takedowns in the second half of the fight and he would be able to control Johnson for long stretches and potentially even finish him there as Johnson has been very susceptible to submissions in the past. If this fight stays standing, I don't know how Mullarkey can compete while taking as much damage as he does from a significantly better stand up fighter in Johnson. Knowing how Johnson's fights go, he'll probably be winning and get submitted by a flying kimura with 30 seconds to go though and I wouldn't even be surprised at this point. Give me Michael Johnson one more time though as he did look pretty good in his last performance.
Nina Nunes defeats Cynthia Calvillo Result: Cancelled
This fight is really interesting to me. To me, this fight seems more or less even, but it is hard to know exactly what to expect from either woman in this fight. Calvillo is coming off of a fight that saw her just not come out for the third round and Nunes was submitted by MacKenzie Dern in her first fight back after two years away as she was pregnant. If I knew that I was getting the best versions of both of these fighters, I would take Nunes to win that fight, so that is what I did here. I am sort of banking on all of the other stuff to cancel out. Both women here are reasonably technical strikers who want to come out and throw with good volume. Calvillo has been more willing to wrestle offensively, but she doesn't do so efficiently and Nunes has always had pretty solid takedown defense, so I think she keeps it standing. Nunes has historically thrown with the better volume and has been better at limiting damage coming back her way as well. The questions with her revolve around how committed she is to MMA now that she has a family and how she feels physically given that basically her entire MMA track record was one baby and three years ago. She is just an older fighter who went through an entire pregnancy, so it isn't unreasonable to expect her to be a changed woman upon return. I think Nunes looks to be in better shape now than she did for the Dern fight, so maybe that extra time has done her some good. I think she would have otherwise been the better striker, so I'll lean her way this time.
Chase Sherman defeats Jared Vanderaa Result: Sherman by KO (5-3)
I mean, what am I supposed to say here. This is low level heavyweight MMA. Almost anything can happen in this fight and it kind of feels like both guys are on their way out of the UFC. I think they say on every broadcast how Vanderaa is a BJJ blackbelt, but he never shoots for takedowns and it didn't seem like he was anything out of the ordinary against Oleinik, but Oleinik is still good on the ground too so, maybe it just cancelled out. If I knew Vanderaa was a willing wrestler in this fight, I would take him because we know how susceptible Sherman has been to takedowns and submissions in the past, but Vanderaa hasn't done that yet, so I kind of don't think he starts now. That leaves this to play out on the feet and at that point it is just a toss up. I think both guys are sort of the same in that regard. The have average heavyweight power and throw strikes with pretty good volume for the division and absorb a lot of damage. The one thing Sherman has going for him is that he does throw some pretty nice and heavy low kicks, so maybe that gives Vanderaa some issues. The concern for Sherman is that he will slow down around the half way point of the fight and Vanderaa would be able to take over, but this feels like a fight that ends in the first. Two big guys with solid power and very little striking defense just slugging it out in the middle until someone falls sort of feels like how this fight is scripted to go. I'll take the chance that Chase Sherman finds a way to win and prolongs his UFC career at least one more fight that will also inevitably wind up on a main card.
Said Nurmagomedov defeats Douglas Silva de Andrade Result: Nurmagomedov by decision (6-3)
I actually think this fight is pretty close. Andrade is a guy with pretty good power and is willing to come forward and throw hard shots. Nurmagomedov is also a striker, but he is very willing to be the fighter moving backwards. I think Said is the more technical fighter, but he does go to some flashier techniques a little too often in my opinion. That could create openings for Andrade to land his big power shots and his power is still very real even at his age. My concern for Andrade is that his chin looks like it may be starting to go on him a little and that is going to be a problem against someone like Said Nurmagomedov. Said has also been better with the volume as well as limiting his opponents volume coming back. I think Andrade will have his moments in this fight and may even land big at points, but I think Said will land more consistently and given the questions about Andrade's durability, I just have to go with Said here. My main concern is that Said is too willing to accept the back foot and just gets pressured up against the cage for the entire fight and ends up losing a decision that way. Even then, I like Said's movement and his overall striking skill set a little more and think this fight does favor him just a bit.
Caio Borralho defeats Armen Petrosyan Result: Borralho by decision (7-3)
This fight should be a pretty cool one. Both fighters are young in their UFC careers and it isn't often that we see the UFC make fights like this. I lean Borralho's way here as I think he is pretty clearly the more well rounded fighter, where Petrosyan is much more of a kickboxer. Borralho is a pretty solid striker and he has really solid power to go with it. Petrosyan is a very good striker in his own right and may even have some advantages. He is probably the more technical striker and at times he may even have the better power. I think they could both have success on the feet and sort of go back and forth. The difference here should be the grappling. Borralho is a decent enough wrestler and has shown himself to be pretty dangerous once he is on top. He has powerful ground and pound and a pretty legitimate submission game. Petrosyan does not stop takedowns very well at all and even against lesser competition has been taken down time and time again. The one thing Petrosyan does have in that regard is a good get up game. Even though he gets taken down maybe 5 times in a fight, he always works his way up and then punishes his opponent on the feet. In this case, I think Borralho is just going to be a different level of grappler than he is used to and I kind of think Borralho can get to his back and either control the fight there or even work for the submission. My fear is that Borralho gets too comfortable striking and that Petrosyan just puts him out or that Borralho takes him down 6 times, but gasses out in the process and gets knocked out late. However, I like the way that Borralho has limited damage in the past and I can't go against someone as well rounded as him against another fighter who has had such a clear issue stopping takedowns.
Rafael Dos Anjos defeats Rafael Fiziev Result: Fiziev by KO (7-4)
I said it in my preview, but this feels like the tale of two fights to me. Fiziev is an incredible striker and is ridiculously explosive. He has serious power in both his punches and kicks. Fiziev's path here is an early knockout. He throws power shots at a really high rate and RDA is in his late 30s now. I don't know how many of those shots that he can take on his chin and keep standing. The problem is that Fiziev is going to start to slow down around the mid point of the second round and that is when I think RDA takes over. I think Dos Anjos is able to limit Fiziev's output early and will be able to clinch him and make him work to take some of the steam off of those shots. After Fiziev slows down, I think RDA starts to get his takedowns more and more easily and will be able to control Fiziev from the top for long stretches. I wouldn't be surprised if RDA were able to get the submission finish either. I just trust RDA's veteran savvy to find a way to win this one over the inexperienced Fiziev. If Fiziev has fixed the cardio issue. then he probably wins and makes me look stupid, but seeing him gas out against lesser fighters in three round fights has me very concerned in a five round fight against the toughest fighter he's every competed against.
What do you guys think? What are your predictions? As always, I'll be back to update this after the card and have my updated record below. Leave any and all thoughts in the comments as well as any predictions you have. Thanks for reading, have a good night, and enjoy the fights.
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 7 - 4
Previous Year to Date Record: 166 - 101
Updated Year to Date Record: 173 - 105
I stopped doing the recap section because I though I would include it in the round up posts that I've started doing, but I haven't, so I'm bringing it back. I want to start including a little bit more betting information in these on top of just picking the fights straight up. Because of that, I want to go back to having a recap at the end so I can see where my logic was right and where I was off.
Like always, we'll start with the losers. The first one I missed was Ronnie Lawrence and I just completely misread the fight. I thought they would be at worst even in the wrestling, but Lawrence would get the edge because of his pace and pressure. I thought they would be almost even on the feet, but again, Lawrence would get the edge due to pace and pressure. Neither of those things held up as Kakhramonov was simply the better fighter. He had a serious physicality advantage that I didn't pick up on and that was a real problem for Lawrence. Kakhramonov was stronger in the clinch and once he was on top, Lawrence really had nothing for him. Our next loss was Ricky Turcios in kind of a weird fight. I think my overall read on this fight was close to being right. What I didn't account for is that Turcios wasn't able to actually hit Zahabi with anything. Zahabi was low volume like I expected, but Turcios really couldn't touch him with any of the strikes he was throwing. He also didn't throw quite as much as I thought he would, but that was a really weird one. Zahabi delivered largely what I thought he would, I just didn't get what I was expecting on the Turcios side. Our third loss was Michael Johnson, which was a bit unfortunate. Both guys kind of fought to expectations for the most part and we got a very close split decision that went Mullarkey's way. The one thing that surprised me a little is that Mullarkey wasn't pressuring quite as much as I thought he would. He did so for that stretch in the second round when it looked like he may finish Johnson, but he couldn't do it again in the third. The decision could have gone either way, but we came out on the wrong end this time. Our final loss was Rafael Dos Anjos in the main event. I think the crux of the reason that I was wrong is that Fiziev didn't slow down to the extent that I saw in the Bobby Green fight. His striking pace slowed a bit, but he never really lost any of the speed or pop off of his shots. I thought RDA should have pushed a better pace early as well. He didn't allow him to get momentum at range, but he sort of just held him against the cage. Had RDA switched from the body to the legs and chained together more takedown attempts in succession, maybe he could have gotten him down or taken more of his energy. Of course, maybe that high of a pace would have been too much for RDA to keep up with as well. He is getting older and after years of weight cuts, he may not be able to push the same pace he used to. I'm also not a coach, so I could just be way off. In any case, Fiziev looked really good and could be only one win away from fighting for the title.
Our first win of the night was Kennedy Nzechukwu and I don't think anyone foresaw him wrestling Roberson. Not only did he wrestle him, he did so effortlessly. We really didn't get to see too much of my analysis even play out as the fight didn't say standing for more than a few exchanges. What we did say was Roberson throwing some decent strikes with good hand speed, which isn't a surprise. We know Roberson is a good striker, he usually just has a problem letting his combinations go. He had a sense of urgency in the second and third rounds, but was taken down as soon as Kennedy got into contact with him. That was a weird outcome that I don't think anyone saw coming and is definitely going to make Kennedy's next fight an interesting one to keep an eye on. David Onama vs Garrett Armfield was a unique situation. Armfield came in on short notice up a weight class and represented himself reasonably well. Given that he accepted this fight on Tuesday, his gas tank wasn't going to be where he needed it to and the size difference only made it worse. Once Onama got into those grappling exchanges in the second round, the difference in strength and cardio was too much to overcome and he ended up with the submission. Cody Brundage vs Tresean Gore was an odd fight as well. I've seen a lot of people debating on twitter about this one and I think people obviously take their bets very seriously and don't want to be wrong, but it happens sometimes. I saw someone claiming it was simply MMA bad luck because "Gore was clearly winning"...I don't know what fight they were watching. It was largely a fight with very little happening up until the finish. Brundage was initiating grappling exchanges like we expected and had Gore down for a moment, but he worked back to his feet. Gore was the one moving forward and Brundage looked really tired, but that certainly isn't enough to say that Gore was just going to win an easy decision. He was probably losing the first round as he had landed only 8 strikes, 6 of which were leg kicks. To assume that Brundage gasses and just falls down isn't a leap you can take in my opinion because I'm not sure Gore could take advantage because he pushes no pace, which we saw. He just doesn't throw enough volume to force the issue, so to assume he would, even with Brundage seemingly fading isn't a conclusion that I can come to. Brundage was able to land a counter right off of a low kick and Gore just didn't see it coming. It didn't look like a shot that would normally knock someone out, but they say on the broadcast almost weekly that it is the ones you don't see and Brundage has more than enough power to shut the lights off, clearly. Next up is Antonina Shevchenko and this time we were on the right side of a close split decision. The first round was the closest one when Shevchenko was largely controlling the fight from range, but then Casey landed a couple of solid shots that seemed to effect Shevchenko. She then went for a takedown, but ended up pulling Shevchenko down on top of her. Shevchenko would ride out the rest of the round from top to end the round with about a minute of control, but Casey would land more strikes from the bottom. You could argue that Casey did more damage, but I thought the work Shevchenko was doing at range to start the round was better. I did kind of think the judges would give it to Casey in real time though. Ultimately, we missed one on a close split decision and won one, so it evened itself out. My next win was Chase Sherman and what a ride that was. The fight was pretty close in the early going, Sherman probably won the first round and landed some nice shots. Vanderaa turned up the volume to probably edge out the second round. The third started pretty evenly with the two trading some hard shots back and forth. It felt like Vanderaa was starting to get his volume going again when Sherman landed a punch in the clinch that stunned Vanderaa. Sherman would follow up with clean, hard shots and eventually Vanderaa went down and the fight was stopped. I couldn't help but be happy for Sherman as he gets a lot of crap online and while his career is what it is, that was a nice moment for him. Said Nurmagomedov picked up a win over Douglas Silva de Andrade as he continues his rise. He has a weird style that relies a lot on spinning techniques and flashy strikes. He is going to have to throw and land more traditional attacks in order to get wins over some of the higher ranking fighters, but all things considered, I thought he looked pretty solid. He is very powerful and fluid on the feet, but he needs to tighten his game up a little in order to really make a push in my opinion. My final win was Caio Borralho and the fight sort of went how I thought it would. Petrosyan just doesn't defend takedowns very well and he couldn't stay off of the ground. Normally he does get up pretty well, but Borralho was able to beat him to the spot in the transitions and get his back several times. Petrosyan is a pretty good striker, but he can't go down that easily and not expect even mediocre UFC wrestlers to not take him down. He has to clean that up going forward and work on not giving his back when he stands up. Borralho got some push back as it wasn't an especially exciting fight to watch, but if the guy is going to be that easy to take down, then there's no explanation for not doing it.
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