After international fight week, the UFC has settled back into the weekly grind with UFC Vegas 58. Overall, it is a bit of a weird card. There isn't really a fight that stands out other than the main event, but it does present some interesting matchups and individual fighters that I want to watch to see how they have progressed. The main event presents a meaningful matchup inside the top 10 of the lightweight division. Long time veteran and former champion Rafael Dos Anjos comes into this fight not far away from another title shot. To get there, he's going to have to go through an exciting prospect in Rafael Fiziev. This is the biggest opportunity that Fiziev has gotten so far by quite a bit and a win would put him maybe only one more win away from a title shot of his own. I'm really interested to see how this fight plays out as it is an interesting contrast in styles and could lead to the breakout of Fiziev. Having Fiziev on the cusp of the top 5 would inject some much needed fresh blood into the upper tier of the division. Fighters like Gaethje, Ferguson, Poirier, McGregor, RDA, and Dan Hooker have been towards the top of this division for so long that any breakthrough from a younger fighter feels like a big deal. Islam Makhachev, Beneil Dariush, and the addition of Michael Chandler have helped out over the last year or so, but the recent rises of Mateusz Gamrot, Fiziev, Arman Tsarukyan, Jalin Turner, and Damir Ismagulov have this division on what feels like the precipice of a new era. Fiziev winning this weekend would really contribute to that happening sooner rather than later. I'm intrigued to see if it is Fiziev's time or if RDA has one more run left in him.
We'll start with the blue corner, which is going to Rafael Fiziev. Fiziev is 29 years old, but is younger than that in terms of his MMA experience. This will be his 13th professional MMA fight and he only made his debut in 2015. He won the first 6 fights of his career inside the distance, which was enough to get him the UFC contract. He lost his promotional debut to Magomed Mustafaev when he was knocked out 1:26 into the first round. That is still the only loss of his career as he's won 5 in a row since. Those wins came against Alex White, Marc Diakiese, Renato Moicano, Bobby Green, and Brad Riddell. Since Fiziev dropped his UFC debut, he's shot up the rankings pretty quickly due to his immense athleticism and skill. Fiziev is a very gifted striker and he does so with some jaw dropping displays of power and speed. It is honestly a wonder that he doesn't have more UFC finishes because when he connects, it feels like his opponent should fall every time. He trains at Tiger Muay Thai, so he is consistently working with some of the best strikers that the world has to offer. While Fiziev is very powerful, he also strikes with really good volume. His ability to pour it on his opponents and not give them time to recover or reset. Fiziev is also unpredictable on the feet for a couple of reasons. First, his punches and kicks are all extremely high level. He doesn't lean too much on any single technique or combination to keep his opponent guessing. Fiziev also isn't afraid to get creative and throw some weird or unusual techniques. He'll throw jumping, spinning, showtime axe kicks and not think twice about it. He will mix in some things that people just don't expect or haven't seen before. The knockout of Brad Riddell with a spinning wheel kick almost came out of nowhere and was absolutely devastating. As a grappler, Fiziev is a bit of an unknown. Again, he's a great athlete and has shown the explosiveness to stop takedowns from lesser competition, but it isn't clear to me how that is going to translate against much better competition over 5 rounds. He should be able to hold up early, but over an entire 25 minutes, I have my questions. That brings me to my biggest concern about Fiziev, which is his cardio. We have seen him fade late in fights multiple times now and that was in 3 round fights. He has lost rounds to fighters who aren't really close to the level that RDA is at right now. We haven't seen him completely gas out like Rodolfo Vieira vs Anthony Hernandez, but he does slow down significantly and that would be a serious issue here. This is just an opinion, but I think we see this issue because Fiziev is so reliant on his superior athleticism. He uses a lot of explosive actions and no matter what kind of condition someone is in, there's only so many huge actions someone has in them before they get tired. Fiziev also gets hit way more than I realized. He absorbs over 5 strikes per minute, which is just way too much at this level. Taking that much damage isn't going to help his gas tank any and is something that he needs to clean up in order to continue climbing up the rankings. Fiziev is already a great fighter with tremendous potential, but he feels like someone who has to refine some of the small details and clean up some things in his game to really make that jump into the title picture. However, he is so dangerous early in fights that he could find himself there even before he is truly a complete mixed martial artist.
Rafael Dos Anjos may be the most under appreciated fighter in the history of the UFC. He doesn't get nearly enough credit for what he's done and that insane strength of schedule that he has put together over the course of his long career. RDA comes into this fight 31-13 in his career and has only been finished 3 times. He was knocked out by Jeremy Stephens in his UFC debut, he was submitted by Clay Guida after injuring his jaw, and was knocked out by Eddie Alvarez to lose his championship. I feel like the fact that RDA is a former champion isn't even brought up when he fights. I'm not sure if there is research done on this and if there isn't, how it would be done, but I think RDA has to have one of the toughest strength of schedules in MMA history. He's been around for so long that I won't go through his entire resume, but we'll touch on important highlights and talk about his current trend. RDA became champion in 2015 by derailing the Anthony Pettis hype train in stunning fashion. He successfully defended his title one time by defeating Cowboy Cerrone and then lost his title to Eddie Alvarez. After losing his next fight to Tony Ferguson, RDA tried a move to welterweight that yielded mixed results. He won three in a row and then lost 4 of 5 to a murderer's row of competition (losses to Kamaru Usman, Colby Covington, Leon Edwards, and Michael Chiesa, win over Kevin Lee). Ultimately, I think the size disadvantage was just too much for RDA to overcome. Cutting the weight to 155 sucks, but that appears to just be his weight class as he has looked very good since his return. He has secured a pair of 5 round wins over Paul Felder and Renato Moicano and has had a million fights cancelled it seems. He's been booked against Islam Makhachev a couple of times and has had this Fiziev fight cancelled at least a couple of times as well. As a fighter, RDA brings in a really nice well rounded skill set even as he has gotten up there in age. As a striker, he doesn't do anything wild or crazy, but he is just really solid. He is reasonably technical, throws will moderate volume, and does a solid job of limiting the damage. He doesn't have great power, but it is about average for the division. He throws both punches and kicks moderately well. He isn't flashy on the feet and doesn't do anything next level, but he doesn't have any clear hole or weakness either. While he is solid, but unspectacular on the feet, his grappling is where he's made his money in this sport. RDA is a good wrestler, but not necessarily a great one. He is persistent and will continue to push for the entire 25 minutes. Once he is in top position, RDA is a serious problem with his combination of ground and pound and submission skills. We just saw what he did to Moicano from the top and Moicano is a decent grappler in his own right. RDA also brings good cardio to the fight even as he enters his late 30s. What makes RDA great is this sort of intangible quality that he has where it feels like he is able to get more out of his skills than what you think he should. He has this innate ability to control the fight and get to the positions that he wants to get to when he wants to get to them. He isn't the biggest, fastest, strongest, or most powerful, yet he always seems to be the one controlling the pace and positioning of the fight. My biggest concerns for RDA coming into this fight are largely age related. He is going to be at a significant speed and explosiveness disadvantage early, which is going to be an issue. Fiziev is the more gifted striker, while being the better athlete, so RDA is going to have to be careful in those early exchanges. His chin isn't likely to be able to take shots as easily as it used to either, so his defensive skills are going to be put to the test early. I guess I just worry that RDA has lost a step and won't be able to adjust. If he has taken just a step back in the cardio, chin, speed, and other areas, I don't know if someone like Fiziev is a great matchup for him. I feel like I'm already getting into the keys so let's just go there.
I feel like this may be a tale of two fights. The early part of this fight is going to favor Fiziev and is where he needs to do a lot of his damage. The first round and most of the second round is when Fiziev will be fresh and at his most explosive. It feels like Fiziev's clearest path to victory here is going to be from an early knockout. Between his speed, power, and overall aggression, he should be able to land on RDA somewhat consistently. If RDA's chin has started to fade, that isn't going to help matters. During these early moments, RDA is going to have to grab onto Fiziev and force him into the clinch or take him down to limit the damage that he absorbs. If RDA can get takedowns early, then I think this fight will be his for the taking. I think Fiziev can stop the shots early, but he needs to not get stuck in the clinch and keep the early exchanges from range. He is the superior striker with all of the athletic advantages and he needs to take advantage of it. Starting around the 8 minute mark or at the start of the third round is when I expect this fight to start to turn as Fiziev slows down. When that happens, he's going to lose some of the power and snap on the punches and he's going to have a harder and harder time stopping the takedown attempts. We know Dos Anjos isn't going to bring a crazy pace necessarily, but he is going to maintain his pace over the entire fight. Once RDA starts getting those takedowns, I assume it is going to be a bad time for Fiziev. We really don't know what kind of skills Fiziev has on the ground, especially off of his back, but I wouldn't think he's going to be able to out grapple RDA from bottom position. That would legitimately shock me. For me, the first key to this fight is going to be RDA's ability to slow the pace and take shots early. If his chin is still largely intact and he can take those shots, then he'll have a much easier time weathering that storm, obviously. If he can force the clinch or even get takedowns early and make Fiziev work, while limiting damage, that will go a long way towards RDA winning this fight. The second and most important key is going to be exactly how much cardio Fiziev has. When does he start to slow down and when does he completely gas out? We've never seen him completely empty the tank, but we have seen him slow down around the 8 minute mark and lose rounds to fighters who aren't even close to RDA's level. The hope for him is that he has extended his cardio a bit. If he only has 2 rounds before he slows down, I think his ability to win this fight is limited to an early knockout. RDA is extremely dangerous on top and if Fiziev is so tired that he isn't fully himself, I don't see how he doesn't get finished if he's spending the last three rounds of the fight on his back. I don't think that this fight goes the distance at a very high rate at all. I think Fiziev's best path to victory is an early knockout and if he can't get it, RDA probably takes him down and can finish him there. If this fight were to go to decision, it is probably like the Dos Anjos vs Moicano fight where they didn't stop it because Moicano was just too tough for his own good. I'm not sure exactly what a Fiziev decision win looks like here. He would almost have to win the first two rounds without finishing him and then drop him at some point in the later portion of the fight without knocking him out. I think if Fiziev is hitting RDA hard enough and frequently enough to win rounds, he is going to end up finishing him though.
What do you guys think? How do you see this fight playing out? Who do you think picks up the win? How many more fights does the winner need until they get the title shot? Leave your thoughts and predictions in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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