Alright guys, it's been a bit of a slow week. I'm honestly not feeling that well and just sort of dragging. There's a lot of things in my personal life that are getting to the point where the rubber meets the road one way or another, so I guess it is just general anxiety that has my motivation pretty low recently. That has seen me not do previews for any fights this week, but I'll be a bit long in this one to make up for it. This card is kind of carried by the final 3 fights of the night with some mild intrigue in another matchup or two over the rest of the night. It should be a pretty solid night even though this doesn't really feel like a PPV outside of the welterweight title being on the line. Honestly, if you took the main event off, this doesn't feel all that different than last week. With that said, I'm still looking forward to those big fights and hopefully we can get a few entertaining fights the rest of the way. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom.
Victor Altamirano defeats Daniel Da Silva Result: Altamirano by KO (1-0)
This is honestly not a bad fight to start the night with as we should be in for some fireworks in this one. Daniel Da Silva brings a very strange dynamic to a lot of his fights because his calling card at this point is to come out like a bat out of hell and go all out for a finish in the first 4 minutes. If he doesn't get the finish in that time, he slows down and eventually gasses out pretty badly and will probably end up getting finished himself. This strategy puts Da Silva in a really bad spot if the fight gets extended as his gas tank starts to empty after about a round and he won't have much left beyond the halfway point of the fight. It has also led to Da Silva absorbing a ton of damage in his UFC run so far as he absorbs over 7 strikes a minute, which is just way too much. I do think that Altamirano should be ok here though. He has shown himself to be a fairly tough guy with solid enough durability that I think he survives that early surge more often than not. In that case, he is plenty good enough to beat up a gassed out Da Silva. In general, I just kind of believe that Altamirano is the better fighter here. He isn't the most technical striker in the world, but I do think he is better on the feet. I also imagine he would have a grappling advantage if he chose to use it. I just don't really see much of a path for Da Silva here. If he comes out like he normally does, I don't think he finds a finish at a very high rate. If for some reason he came out a lot more measured, I don't think he is technical or well rounded enough to win that fight either. His best chances is an early finish, which is certainly possible, I just think it happens a vast minority of the time.
Bets to consider: Altamirano ML -178, Altamirano rd 3 or dec +260, Da Silva ITD +250
This is one of the few fights on the night where it feels like there are a few ways you could approach it. In my opinion, if you're going to play Da Silva, doing so inside the distance is the way to do it. With his cardio, I don't think there is really any reason to think he wins a decision. If you're thinking he wins or that there is some value to be extracted there, take the +250 instead of the +138 on the money line. When I checked the lines early in the week, Altamirano was out closer to -200, which may have been about right in my estimation. As the line has been coming down, I think it is getting to a point where you could take the stab on him. If we see this trend continue over the rest of today (writing this Friday afternoon) and early tomorrow and Altamirano finds himself in the -165 range or better, I think that would be a pretty decent spot to play. I do think you could play it now if you really wanted to, but a little more movement and I'll probably be involved. I think Altamirano round 3 or dec is an interesting look as well. My main concern there would be the fact that if Da Silva gasses badly, he may not make it out of round 2. I don't know that I'll do it, but I may take a small chance on it, depending on how active I am on the rest of the card.
Aoriqileng defeats Jay Perrin Result: Aoriqileng by decision (2-0)
This should also be a pretty fun fight to watch if all goes according to plan. I view this fight as being a pretty close fight with two guys who have a lot in common when it comes to general style. They both want to come forward and throw strikes while mixing in takedowns when the opportunity presents itself. I lean slightly to the Aoriqileng side here for a couple of reasons. On the feet, I think he has a power advantage that will be enough to notice it most exchanges. This will work well in the eyes of the judges because I do expect this fight to go to decision at a high rate. I also think that Aoriqileng will be the slightly better grappler in this one if he needs to go to it. He seems to me to be the more physical fighter and I expect that he would be able to land some takedowns if he were to go in that direction. Aoriqileng has also been a little more willing to throw high numbers of strikes so far in his UFC run, which should benefit him as well. That isn't to say that Perrin is hopeless because I think this fight ends up being pretty competitive at the end of the day. Perrin is also moderately well rounded. He's a solid striker and has at least ok grappling. His main advantage here should be his cardio. Perrin does a better job of pushing a pace than he does in actually throwing strikes in high volume at times. Perrin pushes his pace more in the grappling, but I don't know how much that will benefit him in this matchup. If he can force that pace early, even if he doesn't have immediate success, he could slow Aoriqileng down enough that he could put it on him late as Aoriqileng doesn't have the best striking defense and absorbs way too much damage. I just slightly lean towards Aoriqileng here as I think both are largely pretty even and I just slightly prefer Aoriqileng's power and slightly prefer his wrestling, but with Perrin's cardio, I think it should be an interesting fight.
Bets to consider: either fighter by decision (Aoriqileng +150, Perrin +270)
This fight had some crazy movement before I even checked the lines. At one point Perrin was all the way out at +200. If you were able to get a number like that then good for you because that was the side to be on in my estimation. As that line has narrowed, I'm just not feeling particularly compelled to play either side. I would cap this fight with just a slight lean to Aoriqileng and the current money line prices have him at around 55%, depending on exactly where you're looking. The fight goes the distance at -172 actually might not be a bad play either, but laying that big of a number when one guy has decent power, but a cardio disadvantage isn't really where I want to lose my money. If you want to play this fight, I think playing your side by decision is the way to go. Both guys have shown to be historically pretty tough, so they should be able to take the damage and make it to decision. That just leaves you to decide who wins. I'm on Aoriqileng there, but I don't really feel enough conviction in that to pull the trigger on anything. Maybe I'll play fight goes the distance. I'll decide by the time I put this out I guess.
Amir Albazi defeats Francisco Figueiredo Result: Albazi by sub (3-0)
This is a fight where I think Albazi should largely be able to do what he wants. To keep it short, he should be the better wrestler, better striker, and will have a clear advantage in the cardio department. When Albazi is at his best, he is a real problem as he is extremely well rounded. I don't know that he is exceptionally great at anything, but he has a really solid base everywhere. Francisco Figueiredo just isn't a fighter that I really look to pick or bet on in almost any situation. He has some level of skill, but he just doesn't really use it in a way that can consistently translate to wins. He has some technical striking acumen, but not a ton beyond that on the feet. His power is probably average at best or maybe a notch below and his output is almost nonexistent. In my mind, if you're going to be low output, then you need to have the power to make up for that. If you don't have that power, you need to make up for it with landing strikes more frequently. Figueiredo really doesn't do either one of those things well, which leave him vulnerable to losing minutes on the feet almost effortlessly. Figueiredo does have some grappling ability as well, but I don't really expect him to have success there either. I suppose the one thing that is concerning is that Albazi has been willing to fight off of his back at times and play the BJJ game from his guard. Figueiredo is a decent enough grappler that he could get a takedown and if Albazi just lays on his back for an entire round he could end up losing that way. Figueiredo also has a submission game that you have to respect, so laying under him for extended minutes does present some sort of threat. The problem there is that I don't know that Figueiredo really has the gas tank to do that for extended time. Albazi also has some questions in his defensive striking, but again, I don't think Figgy has the power or volume to really make him pay for that in a meaningful way. Ultimately, as long as Albazi fights with a steady and processed game plan, I don't see why he shouldn't win this fight a vast majority of the time.
Bets to consider: Albazi ITD +130
This is a pretty tough fight to play because so many of the Albazi lines are extremely inflated. I don't think it is extreme to say that Albazi should be winning this fight 80% of the time or so, but having his money line all the way out at -530 (implied 85%) doesn't really provide much value. To actually extract any meaningful amount of value from that line, you would have to cap the fight for Albazi at 90-95%, which I just don't think is realistic. Albazi isn't the type of fighter who can reach that level of confidence against a respectable professional fighter. With that said, I don't really know how you could bet Figueiredo with any degree of confidence either. Honestly, my thoughts on Albazi aside, I don't know what number I would have to get on Figueiredo to actually feel comfortable playing him. I don't think he's going to get a knockout because his power isn't there and he doesn't throw with long enough combinations to get damage to add up over the course of the entire fight. I can't imagine he's going to win a decision because I don't think he has the gas to sustain success of any kind deep into a fight. I suppose his best route to victory would be to get a couple of quick takedowns to steal two rounds or maybe he can latch onto a submission. Even that seems so unlikely because he is at a skill disadvantage everywhere in my opinion. That dynamic makes the fight hard to bet for Albazi as well. I could see Albazi just taking Figgy down and riding him out from top and picking up a decision win. I could also see Figgy completely gassing out and Albazi getting a finish just because Figgy is too tired to continue. I don't think you could really predict if it will be TKO or submission though as it is hard to say exactly how we get to that finishing sequence. If you're going to bet it, I think going inside the distance at plus money could be worth a small dart throw. Everything else is way too inflated for me to want to really consider a play.
AJ Fletcher defeats Ange Loosa Result: Loosa by decision (3-1)
This is such a weird fight. To me, this is a matchup of some really inconsistent fighters that can be really hard to predict at times. I ultimately decided to go with Fletcher because I just think he has the better tools overall. I think he is probably a slightly better athlete and is just a tad more skilled in each facet. This is sort of a hard fight for me to even break down because I can't really find the words for either guy. Fletcher isn't a poor technical striker, but he isn't anything special there either. He does have decent power, but again, nothing really all that special. His wrestling is pretty decent and he attempts a lot of takedowns, but I don't think his technique is anything out of the ordinary. One thing that does stand out about Fletcher is that his cardio is sometimes a bit spotty. Fletcher basically comes out hot and just goes for as long as he can until his body just forces him to slow down in the latter portions of the second round. Fletcher is one of those guys who has the physical skills to potentially be something in the future, it is just a matter of if his MMA skills get to the same level and allow him to really rise up the rankings or if he just stays as a middle tier type of fighter in the UFC. Loosa, to me, has a lot of those same issues. He's just sort of hard to predict from fight to fight. Sometimes he will be really aggressive in his striking, other times he won't. Sometimes he will wrestle, other times he won't. Sometimes he will stand in the pocket and trade and other times he will try to strike from range. It's a very strange dynamic to try and figure out. Loosa is a pretty big guy and brings solid amounts of power, but everything else sort of lags behind that. I think he will be able to stop most of the takedown attempts in this fight, which could potentially cause Fletcher to gas out again. If that is the case, Loosa could pull away late. However, I think the most likely scenario is that we see Loosa fall behind on the volume in the striking and lets Fletcher dictate the pace in the grappling early. Loosa may start to look better late, but by then, it will be too little too late and Fletcher probably snags the decision win here.
Bets to consider: FGTD -136, Loosa ML +136
I find this to be a tough fight to bet just because there are very few things that I can convince myself are reliable. In a fight that I think could end up being somewhat even, if I had to go with a side on the money line, it would be Loosa. I just don't think laying -168 on Fletcher here with the cardio dynamic is something that I would feel comfortable doing. I wouldn't necessarily be rushing to the window to bet Loosa either, but I think he would be the side if you really feel the need to pick one. I think a bet that I would much rather take the shot on would be that the fight goes the distance. Fletcher's cardio does have me slightly concerned in that he could gas and get finished late because of it, but I'm not sure Loosa is going to really go all out for that finish. I don't really think I'll be taking the shot anywhere in this fight, but that would be it if I did. There's just way too many unknowns here for me to have any degree of confidence in which iteration of this fight we're going to see Saturday night.
Sean Woodson defeats Luis Saldana Result: split draw
In short, this is an absolutely horrendous matchup for Saldana. Luis Saldana is a marginally technical striker who's best weapon is probably his kicks. He throws them pretty hard and has some combinations overall that look pretty solid at times. Saldana is at his best when he can keep his opponents at kicking range and he does that well at times, but sometimes he struggles to keep it at the range that he wants. When fighters can get on the inside against Saldana, he is there to be hit and he can take a lot of damage there. The biggest drawback to me in Saldana's game is his cardio and output. Saldana just doesn't throw strikes at a very high rate and even then, he's found himself gassing out at the 7-8 minute mark. What is really concerning for me is that Saldana slows down badly even in fights that aren't really frantic or high paced at all. I think that will really be his undoing here. Woodson on the other hand is absolutely massive for the division and has a noticeable reach advantage here. That is going to force Saldana to close the distance and that is when Woodson is going to punish him. Woodson is a really slick boxer and he will work both the body and the head. Once Saldana starts to slow, I imagine that Woodson is going to really put it on him and those body shots won't help the cardio. On top of that, Woodson is going to push a high pace, which will only cause Saldana to gas out faster. I really think Saldana is stuck between a rock and a hard place here. He's either going to fight at his normal pace and get out struck badly and probably gas out anyway or he's going to try and compete with Woodson better on volume and he's going to gas out very quickly. The path for Saldana would be to wrestle Woodson as he does have some weakness there, but Saldana just doesn't wrestle. He doesn't really attempt takedowns and even when he does, he only lands them at a 20% rate. I just don't really see where Saldana wins this fight outside of some crazy high kick or some other flash knockout kind of thing.
Bets to consider: Woodson by KO/TKO +175, Woodson round 2 +550, Woodson round 3 +1300
I don't think there's any reason to be looking to bet Saldana here. His path to victory is just so narrow that I don't think there's really any path of logic that would lead you to place a bet with genuine belief that you have something on his side. If you want to take a poke on Saldana round 1 at +1300, then that's fine, but that's more of a dart throw than anything else. Woodson has historically been pretty durable, so I personally wouldn't take it, but at those odds, I could understand someone throwing a couple of dollars on it since Saldana's best round is likely to be round one. For me, I think the most likely way that we see this fight playing out is a Woodson finish sometime in the last two rounds. Once Saldana slows down, Woodson is going to really start to pull away with the volume and I think the body work is what begins the finishing sequence. I think you could put something on the KO prop in general and then sprinkle a little bit on round 2 and round 3 at big plus money.
Jared Gordon defeats Leonardo Santos Result: Gordon by decision (4-1)
This should actually be a pretty interesting fight for as long as we get to see it. The most likely scenario here is that Gordon's pace and well rounded skill set get him the win sometime over the second half of the fight. Gordon is a high pace and output fighter who can strike and wrestle at a decently high level. His technical striking is more ordinary as is his power, but he is very high output. His wrestling technique is pretty solid and even though he isn't the most physical guy in the division, his willingness and aggressiveness goes a long way with his cardio being in a pretty good place. The main concern for Gordon is that his chin hasn't always held up. He is sometimes to willing to exchange in the pocket and when he does, he has been prone to getting hit really hard. When he has been hit hard, he hasn't always been able to absorb those shots. This does give Santos a chance to some degree. Santos comes from a BJJ background, but he doesn't really attempt or hit submissions as much as you would expect. He's a pretty big and strong guy who has serious power while being a decent enough striker. His big problem is that his cardio isn't reliable. I don't think he death gasses after about 4 minutes like he did against Clay Guida, but I don't think he can push a pace for 15 minutes either. That sort of creates a strange dynamic where if Gordon doesn't push a pace, he's playing into the pace Santos wants and gives Santos a chance to hang with him. If Gordon does push a pace, he is potentially entering the pocket exposed where Santos could knock him out. I expect a fresh version of Santos to be able to stuff Gordon's takedowns and force him to strike with him. With the power of Santos and the durability concerns for Gordon, that could be a very dangerous scenario. However, I think the most likely scenario is that Gordon can survive the early going and then outpace him late, potentially even finding a late finish.
Bets to consider: Santos KO +750, Gordon ITD +165
This is kind of an interesting fight to bet because a lot of the lines are in strange spots. The danger aspect of Santos is enough to keep me away from a lot of the inflated Gordon lines, but I don't know that they're wide enough for me to really want to get to deep into them either. I didn't mention it above, but Santos is over 40, so he is potentially declining from fight to fight at this point. If Santos is going to win, I suspect it will come by finish and probably standing. If he catches Gordon entering, I think he can put him down and finish him. At +750, I think that is a worthwhile shot on a small play. If you want the Gordon side, I think playing him inside the distance would be the way to go. If he survives the first round, he should be able to put on a pace late that I don't expect Santos to hold up to. I think Gordon strikes with enough volume that he would be able to overwhelm Santos late and finish him once he's gassed. I don't think Gordon at -310 presents value with his potential durability problem. You could just take the Santos money line if you want, but I think getting the much better price for knockout is the way to go.
Marcin Tybura defeats Alexandr Romanov Result: Tybura by decision (5-1)
This is a fight that I am actually very interested to see play out. I don't know that it will be an exciting fight to watch, but this is the first really big test for Romanov. I think he's benefitted from some favorable matchups, but that isn't his fault. Romanov used to be absolutely massive, but he has come into his last two fights a little slimmer. He relied on the size though as once he got on top, he would just suffocate his opponents with a pretty impressive combination of ground and pound and submissions. Romanov is a pretty solid wrestler, but sometimes he relies more on his strength than technique, which is eventually going to catch up with him. If Romanov is forced out of his game plan, he has shown weaknesses in other areas. He isn't a particularly great striker and he's going to need to improve and advance his game there as he continues to develop. When he has been forced to fight extended minutes, his cardio has failed him pretty badly. Taking some of that extra weight off should help in the cardio department slightly, but I still don't think he is in a great spot if this fight ends up going into the later rounds. Tybura isn't the most amazing fighter you'll ever see, but he is just very solid. He doesn't do anything too crazy on the feet and he doesn't really have the power in his hands that you would expect for someone his size, but he is reasonably technical and can land strikes at a pretty nice rate. Tybura is a pretty decent grappler as well. He doesn't have the best pure wrestling in the world, but he gets 1.54 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at an 82% rate. Tybura does very well in the clinch and is very active there both in chaining together takedown attempts and landing strikes. Tybura has a very good ground game as well and is dangerous from top position. He lands strikes and attempts submissions from the top and has a very solid get up game whenever he is on the bottom. Ultimately, I do think Romanov can get to his takedowns, especially early, but I think Tybura will be able to stay safe and work his way back to his feet. As the fight progresses, Romanov will start to slow and we'll see Tybura start to take over. I think Tybura can fight with a pace and maintain his cardio deeper into the fight that Romanov can and that is what will get him the win, probably by decision.
Bets to consider: Tybura ML +300, O2.5 total rounds -102, FGTD +148
In my opinion, I'm just not really sure how the dynamics of this fight lead either side to being -400, which is where Romanov currently sits. I think this fight is much closer to even than that. Considering the finishing ability that Romanov brings, I could see him being a slight favorite, but nowhere near this. I think Tybura is the side because I think he is skilled enough on the ground to avoid any finishes from Romanov early. Tybura is going to stay safe and be able to work his way back up. We know Tybura will have the striking advantage and once Romanov starts to slow down, I think Tybura stops the takedowns. I think Tybura will have the advantage in the clinch once he stops those takedowns as well. Tybura doesn't really have the finishing ability, so I do think we see this fight get extended and probably even go to the scorecards. The biggest concern for those bets, outside of the early finish from Romanov is if Romanov gasses out so badly the he basically just gives up. At the end of the day, I'm not sure Tybura is really the guy who is going to push for a finish, so I would feel ok taking the shot on goes the distance at a solid plus money price.
Tyson Pedro defeats Harry Hunsucker Result: Pedro by KO (6-1)
I mean, I don't know what I can say about this fight that hasn't already been said. Tyson Pedro should win this fight in virtually whatever way he decides he wants to. He's a pretty athletic guy who has a very solid base everywhere. His weakest area is probably the wrestling, but he has a decent ground game when the fight hits the mat. He is pretty active in his submission attempts and is solid in that department, especially for a bigger guy. His striking is on the lower volume side, but he has nice hand speed and throws some solid kicks as well. Harry Hunsucker is just at a massive disadvantage in this fight. Hunsucker isn't going to wrestle and he probably would be at the disadvantage on the ground anyways. Hunsucker is an active striker and has decent enough power, but not too much else beyond that. His general strategy is to just come forward and turn the fight into a brawl and see what happens. On one hand, that is a path that sees him get finished somewhat regularly, but on the other, I think it is probably his best chance to win a lot of fights as well, so I can't even hold it against him too much. I don't think he is technical or fast enough to try and play an outside striking game with high level fighters, so just going into the pocket and hoping to land the first big shot probably is a decent game plan for him. He hasn't proven to be the most durable guy either, so my best guess is that Pedro clips him and then finishes him in some capacity.
Bets to consider: Pedro by submission +400, O1.5 total rounds +280
This is not the fight to bet. All of the Pedro lines are so far gone that it is kind of hard to even find a spot here. I don't really think it's possible to bet Hunsucker because I just don't think he is on the same level as Pedro or really even close to it. Pedro has the potential to be ranked and Hunsucker is at the very bottom of the roster. If there's any line to take a shot on, I think Pedro by submission might be it. Pedro does attempt submissions at a solid rate and this fight almost certainly isn't going the distance. It would likely be a club and sub type of situation as I don't really expect Pedro to just start shooting takedowns, but none of the other props on Pedro are really even close to playable in my opinion. The over 1.5 is at +280, which is pretty crazy in a vacuum, but I'm not really all that interested. I wouldn't mind if someone took a small dart throw on it just because +280 to get to 7.5 minutes is pretty wild, but I don't think it plays out that way. Hunsucker is going to be too aggressive and probably walks into something pretty quickly or maybe just lands a big bomb himself.
Wu Yanan defeats Lucie Pudilova Result: Pudilova by KO (6-2)
I'm not sure how or why, but this fight is on the main card now so there's that. This fight is just so odd. Pudilova will be making her return to the UFC after being away from the promotion for a couple of years. Pudilova does a few things very well, but beyond that, she is a very limited fighter. She's a decent enough boxer, but that is really about it. She has a pretty solid 1-2, but she doesn't really do a whole lot else. Her overall volume is ok, but it isn't diverse enough to really carry the weight that it normally would. Her game is really reliant on her opponent giving her the fight that she wants because she doesn't have the skills to actually force that fight. Pudilova is a decent enough pocket boxer. However, if her opponent isn't willing to engage in that type of fight, she doesn't have a way to make that fight happen against their will. When her opponent can move well and skirt around the perimeter of the cage, she really just doesn't have a way to answer that. She doesn't really cut off the cage well to corral her opponent that way and she doesn't have the kicking game to force her opponent to stay in front of her. She also doesn't have the grappling to mix things up and keep her opponent guessing to allow those boxing combinations to land as effectively. Unfortunately for her, Wu Yanan is the exact kind of fighter that she doesn't want to face. I don't think Yanan is a world beater by any means, but if there's anything she is reliable to do, it's that she wants to skirt the outside of the cage and land pretty good volume from range. Yanan also is reliable to at least attempt takedowns, even though she only gets them at a 30% rate. This isn't to say Yanan is great because she has her weaknesses as well. She is very small for the division in a sense that she is very slight in build, even though her length is ok. She has very little power and virtually no way to finish a fight, which does put her in danger at times. She also gets hit quite a bit, but I just like this matchup for her. I favor her slightly to get this win as long as she moves the way she normally does.
Bets to consider: Either fighter by decision (Yanan +190, Pudilova +110)
Neither fighter really has the tools to end this fight in my opinion. Pudilova hasn't registered a knockout since her second career fight and Yanan hasn't finished a fight since 2018. I don't really see how either would finish it or what the situation would really even look like. I the fight goes the distance number for this fight is -370, so that tells you that this fight is pretty certain to go to the cards. In a fight that I think is 50/50 and very likely to go the distance, to take your preferred side at a better number is the way to go. Regardless of which side you're on, if you want one of them, doing so by decision would be better than laying the worse number on the money line in my opinion. I do like the Yanan side a little bit better because she has the potential to take this fight down and separate herself in the grappling and not just have to rely on the striking numbers. I think +190 is a reasonable number if you feel confident in Yanan.
Merab Dvalishvili defeats Jose Aldo Result: Dvalishvili by decision (7-2)
This is such a tough fight to call in my opinion. At the end of the day, I think this will ultimately come down to the pressure, pace, and grappling of Merab against the range management and counter striking of Aldo. Merab is a grappling heavy fighter and I kind of think he does his best work in the clinch over top position. Merab doesn't always have the best control game as his opponents, at least early, can work their way back up. What makes Merab so tough is that he literally will never get tired. It doesn't matter how many times his opponent gets back up, Merab is going to be attempting more takedowns and landing strikes while racking up control time in the clinch. Merab is also very athletic and it almost goes without saying that he'll have the advantage there in this matchup. Merab's striking isn't anything all that special, but he does use the cardio to push a pace, so he does have that going for him. He was hurt badly by Marlon Moraes and Aldo is a much better counter striker than Moraes, so that could be a concern as well. Aldo needs to find a way to keep this fight at range. If he keep Merab on the outside on the ends up his punches, Aldo should have a lot of success there. He needs to keep the pace down and then punish Merab on the counters when he tries to close the distance. The real concern for Aldo is all age related. This isn't the same Jose Aldo that kneed Cub Swanson. He doesn't have that same power anymore and he doesn't have the cardio anymore. Historically, Aldo has had great takedown defense, but he just doesn't seem to be the same guy in my opinion. He has gotten controlled in the clinch more often recently and I ultimately think that is what we see a lot of in this one. After the high grappling pace, I think it is possible that we see a tired Jose Aldo finished late, but it is more likely that Merab gets the decision win here in my opinion.
Bets to consider: Merab round 3 or decision +115
This is a tough fight to bet in my opinion because I think it is so close. This is probably one of those situations where we look back on this in hindsight and say "oh it was so obvious" because if Merab wins he could look -500 here with 8 minutes of clinch control time. On the other side, if Aldo is just toasting Merab on the counters, he could look like a nice sized favorite as well. I really believe there is merit to betting both sides of this one. That isn't normally what you'll here Twitter cappers say, but I think it's the truth. I don't fault anyone for betting either side of this one. I think laying -142 on Merab is a bit extreme, but I do think Merab could look like a huge favorite by the end of the card. The way that I think I would play this one is to go with Merab round 3 or decision at plus money. I do think Merab is the side in this one and that covers most of his win equity in my opinion. He is most likely to grind out a decision, but I could see him finishing a tired Aldo late.
Paulo Costa defeats Luke Rockhold Result: Costa by decision (8-2)
I don't understand why this is the fight they made for Luke. This is just a very bad matchup for him, especially considering the situation. Luke Rockhold is a former champion, but he's been away for 3 years and is almost 38 years old. At his best, Luke was the kind of fighter who could control fights everywhere it went. On the feet, he needs the fight to be a slow paced, technical kickboxing match. He is pretty solid from range and that allows him to use his kicks, which are probably his best weapon standing. His best weapon overall is his top game, which used to be one of the best in the sport. He lands vicious ground and pound and pairs it with some solid submission skills. The problem is that Luke has never really been that great of a wrestler. He lands less than 1 takedown per 15 minutes at a 30% rate. A huge hole in Luke's game is his chin and striking defense. When the fight is at range, he looks fine, but when the distance closes his defense sort of breaks down and he leaves himself open to be hit. When he's been hit clean, he hasn't taken those shots well. Given all of that, the UFC decided to give him an absolute tank of a human who stops takedowns. You can probably see why that isn't great. Costa is massive for the division and fights a high pressure, high output style. He also has really big power. I think Costa stops the takedowns and then puts it on Luke pretty easily. At some point, Costa is going to land on the chin and I think Luke goes down at that point. Rockhold does seem to be in pretty good shape, so he has that going for him, but this is just a terrible matchup for him in general. Combine that with the fact that he has been gone for 3 years and I don't really think there's much of a path here for Luke.
Bets to consider: Fight doesn't start round 3 -182
This is another tough fight to bet as it seems so obvious in how it is going to play out. This has most of the Costa lines juiced and unplayable at this stage. It isn't like Luke isn't still dangerous to some extent, so I'm not really looking to lay some of these huge lines on Costa, especially considering that he hasn't had a ton of success recently either. I think playing the fight to not start round 3 is as solid a way to play this fight as there is. I don't know if I will ultimately pull the trigger, but I'm considering it. This covers the most likely outcome of a Costa KO, but it also will cover a Rockhold finish if he can somehow get the fight to the ground. It isn't a great number, but I think it is playable if you want it.
Kamaru Usman defeats Leon Edwards Result: Edwards by KO (8-3)
I think this is a pretty decent spot for Usman. Leon Edwards is a pretty technical fighter in all aspects and has a length advantage, but I'm just not sure that he has the right skill set to pull off the upset. Leon is a pretty technical striker, but he is lower output and lacks power. His best weapon on the feet are his kicks, but if he gets too aggressive with them, he's going to get one caught and get taken down off of it. Leon has improved his grappling to the point where it is an actual weapon for him, but he won't be able to wrestle Usman here. I don't think he has the power to finish Usman, but I don't think he really has the output to win a decision. Usman is just as well rounded in my estimation, but with better tools. His wrestling background will have him a step ahead of Leon on the ground and I think he could finish the fight on the ground potentially. On the feet, I think Usman will have the pace advantage as well as a massive power advantage. He isn't as technical and trying to fight this one out on the feet gives Leon his best chance, so it will be interesting to see which route Usman chooses. He is also coming off of a hand injury, so maybe he will be more likely to go back to his wrestling. Even if Leon stuffs the initial shot, I like Usman to be able to use his strength to control this fight in the clinch. I just think Usman is better in every area except technical striking, but his power and pace will probably make up for that
Bets to consider: Usman lands more takedowns, more significant strikes, and wins -135
I played this bet last week with Dominick Cruz and we know how that went, but I'm going back to the well here. I don't necessarily mind if someone took the shot on Leon, but I just don't really see it as more of just a dart throw. This one seems pretty straight forward to me. Usman has never been taken down in the UFC and is a very good wrestler as we all know. He has the takedown part covered. We know he is the higher output fighter and will land more strikes, so that is covered. He is a -350 favorite and some people are still laying that price, so that is probably covered as well. This just seems pretty easy to me.
That's it from me on this one. Let me know your thoughts, predictions, and bets for the card. Leave anything else in the comments as well. I'll be back to update my record and my official bets are below. Thanks for reading and enjoy the card.
Official Bets:
Sean Woodson by KO/TKO .5 units at +175 to win .88 units -.5 units
Woodson in round 2 .2 units at +600 to win 1.2 units -.2 units
Woodson in round 3 .2 units at +900 to win 1.8 units - .2 units
Leonardo Santos by KO/TKO .2 units at +750 to win 1.5 units -.2 units
Marcin Tybura ML 1 unit at +300 to win 3 units + 3 units
Tybura/Romanov O2.5 total rounds 1.02 units at -102 to win 1 unit + 1 unit
Tybura/Romanov FGTD .5 units at +148 to win .74 units + .74 units
Merab round 3 or decision 1 unit at +115 to win 1.15 units + 1.15 units
Kamaru Usman lands more takedowns, strikes, and wins the fight 3 units at -135 to win 2.22 units
- 3 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: + 1.79 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 6.79 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 8.58 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 8 - 3
Previous Year to Date Record: 210 - 129
Updated Year to Date Record: 218 - 132
As usual, part way through the card we had people complaining that this was the worse card in the history of MMA. While this is a weekly occurrence, it has just really started to grind my nerves more of late. As you know by now, this wasn't the worst card ever and won't be in the conversation for it either. It won't be the worst PPV card of the year either honestly. I'm expecting next month to take the honors there. As a whole, I thought this event was just fine. It hit a bit of a lull in the middle, but I think that had more to do with the stakes than the actual action. Some of the fights just didn't feel very big or meaningful. Starting off the PPV portion of the card with a ridiculous mismatch with Tyson Pedro and Harry Hunsucker ended about as stupidly as you could imagine with Hunsucker getting hurt by a jab and then finished with a front kick to the body. Then the Yanan/Pudilova fight was very evidently low level. Despite both fights ending inside the distance, they just didn't feel like fights that were anymore meaningful than the opening fight of the night. With that said, other than the Santos/Gordon fight, I don't think any fights were truly boring. Some were more exciting than others, but that was the only one that really dragged on for me personally.
This ended up being a pretty emotional night, at least for me. I have found myself having actual feelings now in my old age, so maybe that has something to do with it. I've never personally been a huge Jose Aldo fan (love watching him fight, just has never really been one of my favorites), but seeing him lose was tough. Those were the kinds of matchups that Aldo used to win pretty consistently not too long ago and to see him not be the same guy anymore is a bit sad. It was a similar type of feeling to how I felt about Dominick Cruz just last week. Then seeing Luke Rockhold behave like a human being and display actual emotions caught me off guard. Luke has played the arrogant heel character pretty well for a vast majority of his career, but seeing him let it all out like that was a great way for him to go out and for the first time, maybe ever, I found myself rooting for him as the fight went on. He fought basically the last 2 rounds on all heart as his cardio failed him badly, but he didn't quit on himself and I think that will mean something to him in the long run. Despite being beaten up pretty badly, he was able to fire back in short spurts and the fact that he ended the fight by reversing position, just to end up on top was a really cool moment. At least I think so. It was nice to Luke show that he is really one of us and that he was appreciative of everything that he's received all of these years, even though he couldn't do it in the moment due to the character he was playing. I think a lot of the fans recognized that and I'm glad he got the ovation that he did as well as being embraced by Rogan and DC. Even Dana White said nice things about him after the event despite the weird back and forth they had this week. That all culminated to Leon Edwards having one of the moments of the year when he landed a huge left high kick to put Kamaru Usman out cold to capture the title. I've always rooted for Leon because I've draw parallels between his time in the UFC and my own experiences and that was such a Leon Edwards way to win the title. He's being beaten pretty cleanly and just when everyone (including the broadcasters) is about to write him off for good, he fired off a perfect combination that landed the kick as cleanly as it can be done. Regardless of what comes of his title reign, that was an incredible moment and it really couldn't have happened to a better guy. What a moment. What a night.
We'll start by going over the losses and I'm going to try and keep this focused on evaluating my reads and not actually breaking down the fight. I want to keep that part for the round up later in the week. Luckily there weren't too many losses, so that's always good. The first loss of the night was AJ Fletcher to Ange Loosa. I don't think I completely misread the fight, but I did think Fletcher would do a better job of pacing himself, which he obviously didn't. Fletcher started well, but after Loosa made it a bit dirtier of a fight, he started to pull away. Fletcher had him hurt for a moment in the second and emptied the tank going for the finish and couldn't recover. Fletcher really has to get that ironed out if he wants to really go somewhere in the UFC. A lot of the skills are there, but gassing out that badly is going to cause him to lose fights pretty consistently at this level. The second loss was Wu Yanan in a fight that I admittedly didn't feel great about. Lucie Pudilova did a great job of growing her game to incorporate grappling that we've never seen from her before. I don't really think there was a way to see that coming, at least without some sort of insider information into her camp. She looked really good though, so good for her. I thought the striking exchanges were sort of playing out like I had imagined, but all of the grappling going Pudilova's way wasn't really something I expected to see or even really considered. The final loss was the main event. Despite how happy I am for Leon, the fight overall was playing out largely the way most people expected it to. Leon really didn't have a ton of answers for what Usman was doing. He was getting backed up into the cage and then was really taking some damage there. He was getting hit and then taken down over and over. The physicality of Usman was a real problem for him and the wrestling pace was wearing on Leon as well. While the majority of the fight outside of the takedown in the first and a few nice shots here and there wasn't going his way, he threw the perfect kick with the perfect set up and that won him the fight on the spot. Also, shoutout to Leon for eating plain cheese pizza in the club afterwards. Glad I'm not the only adult who prefers plain pizza.
Now on to the wins. Our first win of the night was Victor Altamirano in a pretty solid performance. I think my general outlook on the fight was correct, but I did sort of downplay how dangerous Da Silva was early. He had Altamirano hurt early, but then gassed out, which was pretty reliable to happen. Altamirano ended up finishing him a bit earlier than I predicted, but the general storyline of the fight was pretty spot on with my expectations. I think the same goes for the next fight, which saw Aoriqileng defeat Jay Perrin. Aoriqileng was able to win a lot of those early exchanges, but Perrin came on once Aoriqileng started to slow down. Both guys showed off their toughness as well to get the fight to decision, but just barely as Perrin was pouring it on in the last 10 seconds or so. Aoriqileng's power did enough to get him the early rounds though. Amir Albazi picked up a nice win in pretty impressive fashion. He actually had more problems on the feet than I thought he would. It seemed like Figueiredo's length was causing him some issues, but he grounded the fight and took advantage there without too much of an issue. He locked in the submission and finished the fight in the first round. The Woodson/Saldana split draw was a very strange fight. Woodson did not look very good at all and was basically knocked out twice. I thought Woodson should have had his way with Saldana, but he was having trouble with the kicks and Saldana even opted to wrestle some. I included this fight in the wins section here because I forgot about it above, even though I don't count draws either way. I definitely misread this fight as Woodson gassed out and was obviously hurt pretty badly. I thought he should've won this fight without issue, but he really should've lost multiple times over. Jared Gordon handled Leonardo Santos really without any resistance at all. I thought Santos should've at least posed a threat, but he really never did much of anything. He looked like he was fighting to not gas out, which I guess he accomplished, but he never even came close to doing anything to win the fight. Gordon did what he needed to do and landed enough volume to get the win. Unfortunately for him, the lack of performance from Santos will result in his win not being though of as favorably by the fans. Next up was Marcin Tybura defeating Alexandr Romanov. Ultimately, the cardio is what did Romanov in over the long haul, but he had way more success early than I anticipated. Romanov was able to largely control a vast majority of the first round, which I hadn't predicted. I thought Tybura would have had an easier time working his way up, but that wasn't the case. Romanov is going to be a serious problem against fighters who aren't good grapplers, but anyone who is just good enough to survive the first round is going to have their way with him until he gets his cardio together. Tyson Pedro dispatched of Harry Hunsucker in the most meme way possible. I don't know why this fight was booked or why it was on the main card, but the UFC got what it wanted I guess. Merab picked up the best win of his career and he was able to smother Aldo for most of the fight. Aldo stuffed takedowns even after he was gassed out and didn't get finished, but he really was unable to get anything going offensively, so he lost pretty cleanly. I thought Aldo could have a bit more success on the counters, but it seemed like Merab may have just been to explosive and Aldo wasn't really reacting fast enough once Merab closed the distance. It was probably in the top 3 worst matchups for Aldo in the division, but he didn't even provide as much resistance as I thought he could. The final win was Paulo Costa and he didn't really do as well as I thought he would. I thought he should have been able to finish Rockhold and I'm not really sure how he didn't. Luke was bent over with his hands on his knees multiple times in the fight and Costa still couldn't get him out of there. Costa had way more success on the ground than I would've expected and he did plenty to win all 3 rounds, but I thought he would look a lot better honestly. I really didn't know what to expect from Luke, but he ended up performing better than it looked like he was going to. He fought hard and hung with Costa on the feet way better than anticipated. Wasn't a perfect read, but the general outcome was correct.
The final thing to go over are the bets. We got off to a horrible start, even though they were all small plays. We took some shots on Woodson and he just didn't look very good at all, even before he got hurt. Obviously, he didn't finish the fight, so all 3 of those missed. Leonardo Santos by KO also didn't hit obviously and he just looked done. He really didn't even push that hard to try and force a finish. Those bets really didn't feel good from very early on, so I wasn't even sweating them out because I accepted failure long before the fights were actually over. Marcin Tybura brought us back into the green though as we cashed all 3 bets on that fight. Tybura pulled off the upset as a big underdog and with the fight going the distance, we cashed the goes the distance and over 2.5 rounds. I felt those lines were pretty out of wack all week. Tybura shouldn't have been that big of an underdog. Unless Romanov just smashed him early or death gassed late, I didn't think a finish was all that likely either. That fight accounted for most of our profit on the night. Merab winning by decision cashed the bet we had on him as well. I could have taken him just by decision, but I was concerned that Aldo could be finished late if he got tired. Merab was never able to get the fight down, so there was never really an opportunity for a finishing sequence. The final bet was a big loss of 3 units, but it is what it is. It was a tough loss though because it was in line to cash right up until it wasn't. We would have had a huge night (at least by my standards) had that hit, but we ultimately came out in the positive, which is all that matters.
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