The UFC is back today and in front of a full crowd in San Diego to put on what should be another solid event. We have a bit of an extended event as a few fights that were cancelled in the last few weeks were added to this card. We were even given an earlier start time than normal, so everything is working in our favor for this one. Last week wasn't a great showing for the picks, but the bets finished nicely, so I'll take it. We've finished up money in 3 of the 4 weeks since I started tracking, so we'll look to keep that up and get back on track picking fights out right. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom.
Youssef Zalal defeats Da'Mon Blackshear Result: Majority Draw
We have an interesting fight right off that bat here and I slightly lean Zalal's way. If we are boiling this fight down to striker vs grappler, then Zalal is the striker. Zalal uses a movement heavy style that seems him skirt along the perimeter of the cage and land single strikes or short combinations. He isn't really the kind of striker who is every going to plant and throw anything extended, but he'll land some jabs with the occasional straight and mix in some kicks here and there. He isn't an extremely high output fighter, but he uses his movement to limit the amount of damage he absorbs pretty well. Blackshear is making his UFC debut in this one and he will likely try to use a wrestling heavy style. I think Blackshear overall is a fairly decent wrestler and he will probably be the more physical fighter in this one as well. He isn't always the best at holding his opponent down, but he can be solid positionally if he is actively focusing on it. Zalal doesn't have the best takedown defense, but he is usually pretty capable of working back to his feet. When at range, Blackshear is still a little raw and doesn't perform his best when his opponents are constantly on the move. He is ok enough when someone is willing to stand in front of him, but Zalal isn't going to do that. I like Zalal to win the striking exchanges pretty cleanly and think he will be able to get up from the takedowns more often than not. I do think this is a relatively close fight though, so it is really only a lean in Zalal's direction from me.
Bets to consider: FGTD -196, monitor Blackshear ML
In my opinion, this fight should be more or less even on the ML, maybe slightly in Zalal's favor. Zalal is currently sitting at -132 at the time of this writing, which is too wide for me to bet it, but I don't really have any interest in Blackshear at +108 either. I would keep an eye on the Blackshear side though because if Zalal keeps taking money, then Blackshear could get to a point that he is playable. If the line on him started to drift into the +125 to +130 territory, I think that could be worth a look. I'm not one who really looks to play juiced round props, but I think this fight goes the distance at -196 is actually a decent look. I honestly don't even know what a finish in this fight looks like. I don't think Zalal gets stuck in positions that are all that bad on the ground and he doesn't have the power or the style to really attack a finish on the feet. This one goes the distance the vast majority of the time in my mind. There might not be a ton of excess value, but I think it is still playable.
Josh Quinlan defeats Jason Witt Result: Quinlan by KO (1-0)
This fight was cancelled from last week's card, but was placed on here only a week later. Nothing has really changed, so below, you'll see exactly what I wrote last week.
" This is a weird fight. This fight feels like Jason Witt is going to be winning the entire fight up until the exact moment that he loses. Witt is generally the style of fight that I like to back because he is very predictable and reliable to do what he does and he's reliable to be bad at what he is normally bad at. There is very little guessing when it comes to Witt, which is nice in a sport where there is generally so much guess work being done. Witt is a pretty good wrestler and he's reliable to both attempt and land takedowns. He hits his takedowns at a 48% rate, which is pretty solid and lands over 6 per 15 minutes, which shows he is attempt them with good volume. The problem is that, at this stage of his career, that is really all Witt has going for him. His striking isn't awful, but it really isn't an asset for him. He's very low output and his power isn't anything out of the ordinary. His striking defense isn't very good either and he gets hit far too easily. On top of that, as Witt has aged, his chin has deteriorated to the point where he just isn't taking shots very well anymore at all. On the other side, I think Quinlan is just sort of ok as an overall fighter. He brings legitimate power on the feet and he has wrestled offensively at times, but much prefers that this fight stay standing. Quinlan's defensive wrestling isn't the best as he has been taken down rather easily at times in the past. What makes all of this a little more difficult to narrow down is that Quinlan's strength of competition is a bit lacking. A few years ago, I think Witt wins this fight without too much of an issue, but his chin really has me worried. Honestly, I think the first clean shot is probably enough to end this fight for Quinlan. I can't imagine that Witt can survive long stretches on the feet in this one given how hittable he is. I think Witt could still win, but he would have to be almost perfect. I really believe that Witt would need 11 or 12 minutes of ground control to win this fight at this stage of his career. I think Witt probably looks good early in this fight and then once he starts to slow down, the takedowns won't come as easily and that is when he'll start taking damage and get finished."
Bets to consider: Witt ML +225, Quinlan KO/TKO +105
At this point, I think Witt is really the only way to look from a money line perspective. At +225, I really don't think it is the worst play to make. I think the only thing really holding me back is that Witt doesn't have the cardio to push the pace that he needs to. If Witt could push a crazy wrestling pace for all 15 minutes, I think this is a chance I would have more conviction in, but the fact that he's going to slow down and probably do so dramatically, has me hoping for an even better number. If it got to +250, that would be tough to pass up, but I just don't know that I have the conviction to pull the trigger. I have a feeling that if Witt doesn't get finished quickly, this plays out similarly to his fight against Bryan Barberena. He'll look good early, but then once he's gassed, he can't get takedowns and is forced to stand. I think Witt's chin is worse now than it was against Barberena and I know Quinlan is more powerful. I can't imagine that Witt would be able to survive those extended striking exchanges against Quinlan's power. This fight was called off because Quinlan had PEDs in his system, so that doesn't seem like a positive sign for Witt here either. A Quinlan win will almost certainly come via knockout, so I think getting that at any plus money may be worth the shot. I guess there is a scenario where Quinlan wobbles Witt in two different rounds and wins a decision that way, but I honestly don't know how many clean shots Witt is eating in this one before just going out.
Ode Osbourne defeats Tyson Nam Result: Nam by KO (1-1)
This is going to be an interesting fight to watch play out. Osbourne is a guy who I have always felt has the potential, but he is too unrefined to really make the best of it. He has a lot of tools that one would like to have, especially on the feet. He is a pretty athletic guy and even at flyweight, he usually has a speed advantage with his hands. He has pretty good power to go with it and throws his strikes with pretty decent volume. I suspect that is what will ultimately end up getting him the win in this one. He does seem to have a decent submission game as well, but his submissions tend to come from bottom position. We don't really have a ton of evidence to point us in a direction of how good (or not good) his wrestling may be. What worries me on the Osbourne side is that he isn't very clean defensively. He has a tendency to leave his hands down when he is throwing in the pocket and is available to be hit cleanly. I think a really good counter striker would be able to have a lot of success against him. Osbourne also has a tendency to slow down around the midpoint of the fight as well. Tyson Nam is the type of fighter who I just have such a hard time picking because he is a low output fighter. The easiest way to lose fights consistently in the UFC is to not have enough offensive output and that is Nam's game. I'm not entirely sure why he fights that way either because it doesn't seem like there is an inherent reason for it. I don't think he has poor cardio and he is pretty durable, so he isn't overly selective to protect a weak chin either. In terms of skill, I honestly don't have any issues with Nam's game at all. I think he is a moderately technical striker with pretty good power for the division and he's a good defensive grappler. The problem is that he just doesn't really do much. He ends up being so low output that he so quickly and easily falls behind on the cards that he is basically limited to finding a big power shot with his right hand. I do think he has a legitimate chance in this one because Ode is open to being countered, which Nam can do well. However, I can't pick him based on that because if he doesn't find that knockout shot, his chances are so, so slim.
Bets to consider: Nam KO/TKO +500, O2.5 total rounds +100
This is a tough fight to bet as the line has just sort of gotten out of hand. Osbourne should be a decently priced favorite as the most likely scenario is that he out volumes Nam at range, but I don't think there is any path of logic that leads you to make a straight play on Ode at -300 against almost anyone. At the same time, I don't really think I can play Nam at +225 either. His path to victory is basically limited to a counter knockout, so if you want the Nam side in this one, I think playing him by knockout at +500 would be the way to do it. I think the over 2.5 rounds at plus money might be worth shot if you're looking to sweat something out. Like I said, I think the most likely outcome in this fight is that Ode out volumes Nam from range. While Ode does have some power, Nam is a historically durable fighter who has only been knocked out by Marlon Moraes almost a decade ago. After the first round, Ode will slow down and start to lose a lot of steam off of his shots, so I think the over being at plus money might be worth some consideration. It will be sweaty as you're just waiting for Nam to land the bomb, but I think it goes over more than half the time.
Gabriel Benitez defeats Charlie Ontiveros Result: Benitez by KO (2-1)
This fight should be an exciting one for however long that it actually lasts. Benitez comes into this fight a heavy favorite and I think it is largely justified. To be frank, he's just the better fighter here in almost every capacity. He's a pretty solid all around technical striker and throws both kicks and punches effectively. He also has pretty good power as well and I do expect him to finish this fight by knockout before too long. He also has a sneaky decent submission game even though he doesn't really opt to use it very often. He doesn't grapple much in general, but I do think he would probably have the wrestling advantage in this one if he were to need it. Ontiveros is just a strange fighter. He's really big for the division and he's moderately dangerous, but that can really only take you so far. He throws a lot of funky techniques and loves going to his question mark kick, but if he doesn't catch Benitez early, I don't really see him winning this fight. Ontiveros has solid power and his length makes him dangerous, but he's pretty limited to a weird first round knockout in my mind. Benitez is starting to get up there in age now and he's not quite as durable as he once was, so the knockout is in play, but I just don't think this is the fight. He should be able to win this fight almost any way he wants to.
Bets to consider: U1.5 total rounds -240, Ontiveros ML +270
I'm not sure why, but those are literally the only two options that fanduel has available to me right now, so that's what I'm working with. It's just the money lines and the O/U 1.5 rounds, so here we are. I think Ontiveros is too dangerous for me to really want to lay over -300 on Benitez, but I also don't really want to bet Ontiveros either. I think if you're looking for a money line play, it would have to be Ontinveros though just because Benitez is starting to age. The under 1.5 is a little juiced, but I still can't imagine having any confidence in playing the over. It feels like Ontiveros is going to come out and throw everything and the kitchen sink at Benitez in the first like 90 seconds and if he doesn't get the knockout before then, he probably gets clipped and knocked out not too long after. I imagine that if you're on a book that has them, Ontiveros by KO or Ontiveros round 1 props might be at a price that is worth a flyer, but I have no idea. Benitez round 1 may also be at a decent number.
Nina Nunes defeats Cynthia Calvillo Result: Nunes by decision (3-1)
This is another fight that was supposed to take place a few weeks ago, so I'll drop what I wrote before below.
" This fight is really interesting to me. To me, this fight seems more or less even, but it is hard to know exactly what to expect from either woman in this fight. Calvillo is coming off of a fight that saw her just not come out for the third round and Nunes was submitted by MacKenzie Dern in her first fight back after two years away as she was pregnant. If I knew that I was getting the best versions of both of these fighters, I would take Nunes to win that fight, so that is what I did here. I am sort of banking on all of the other stuff to cancel out. Both women here are reasonably technical strikers who want to come out and throw with good volume. Calvillo has been more willing to wrestle offensively, but she doesn't do so efficiently and Nunes has always had pretty solid takedown defense, so I think she keeps it standing. Nunes has historically thrown with the better volume and has been better at limiting damage coming back her way as well. The questions with her revolve around how committed she is to MMA now that she has a family and how she feels physically given that basically her entire MMA track record was one baby and three years ago. She is just an older fighter who went through an entire pregnancy, so it isn't unreasonable to expect her to be a changed woman upon return. I think Nunes looks to be in better shape now than she did for the Dern fight, so maybe that extra time has done her some good. I think she would have otherwise been the better striker, so I'll lean her way this time."
I really don't think my opinion has changed any. This is basically a 50/50 fight in my eyes. Calvillo is the better grappler, but Nunes probably keeps it standing, so we should be getting a pretty close kick boxing match here. I think the time away could help Nunes and have her with a little more energy after a long career. Historically, Nunes lands with a little more volume and does a better job avoiding damage, so with all of the other unknowns circling both women, I'll just let the long term stats lead me with this one.
Bets to consider: Either by decision (Calvillo +155, Nunes +220)
If you feel like you have conviction in one side or the other, picking that fighter by decision would be the bet to make. I don't think it is very likely at all that either woman would finish this fight anywhere. Nunes isn't likely to get a finish as she's not going to submit Calvillo and I highly doubt she would get a knockout. Calvillo did quit on the stool in her last fight, but Nunes isn't going to be doing that damage that Andrea Lee did. Calvillo isn't super likely to get a finish here either. It took MacKenzie Dern basically an entire round on top to submit Nunes, so I don't think we're seeing Calvillo get a submission. I don't think Calvillo has the power to just hurt Nunes on the feet and even if she goes to ground and pound after a takedown, I don't think she's going to be able to do the damage or throw with enough volume to have the referee step in. I think if you're looking to play this fight, going with either by decision is the way to do it. I personally believe the value is on the Nunes side though. Calvillo getting out to -200 seems pretty extreme considering we just saw her give up not too long ago. She does have the grappling edge, but I do think this fight stays standing and we get a pretty close striking battle.
Martin Buday defeats Lukasz Brzeski Result: Buday by decision (4-1)
This is such a weird fight. I can't say that I expect either of these guys to be fighting for a title any time soon, but that's what makes this fight kind of hard to figure out. In a vacuum, I don't think Buday is an amazing fighter, but he should just be the better fighter here. His general style isn't very pretty to watch, but it can be effective when he is able to get to it. He likes to get his opponents into the clinch against the cage and he does a pretty nice job of doing damage there. This allows him to land strikes at a pretty decent pace, but also limits the amount of damage that he absorbs. He doesn't really wrestle in terms of looking for takedowns and he's nothing special at range, but he's not completely lost there either. He's going to be much larger in this fight and I imagine that he will be the stronger fighter as well. I think he will have a significant cardio advantage here as well. I know the UFC is really desperately trying to fill out the heavyweight division, but even then, Brzeski just isn't a UFC level fighter. He's moderately ok and well rounded enough, but he just has no cardio at all. He's not really much of a finisher, at least against higher level competition, but he really gasses out badly after a round. I suppose he could catch Buday early, but I'm really not sure what his path is beyond that just because I don't think the cardio is going to be there to really force anything to happen. Once Buday pushes him up against the cage, he's going to have to dig for under hooks and work for wrist control and thnkgs like that, which is only going to tire him out faster. I think the most likely scenario is that Buday wins a pretty clean decision, but he could get a late finish if he really pushes Brzeski to work at a high pace in the clinch.
Bets to consider: FGTD +144, Buday round 3 or decision +175
This is a weird fight to bet as well as diagnose. I don't really think it is possible to bet Brzeski just because he is so reliable to gas out after 4-5 minutes. He doesn't really have a ton of finishing ability, so I think we see this fight get extended, where he is going to fall behind. We've seen the over 1.5 rounds get juiced all the way -200, but the fight goes the distance is at +144. I think that is an interesting dynamic, but I do understand it. I think the main thing stopping this fight from going the distance would be Brzeski getting so tired that he basically just can't continue. I don't know that he'll go full Herbert Burns, but it wouldn't surprise me if we see something like it. Buday doesn't really have a finisher type of style, but he could wear down Brzeski to the point where he just goes down out of pure exhaustion and volume of shots coming back his way. I don't think +144 is the worst look in the world, but I'm not really rushing to play it either. The round 3 or decision prop hasn't been kind to me since I started tracking these a few cards ago, but I think I'll be going back to the well on this one. Again, Buday isn't really someone who finishes fights, but I think Brzeski could just have his cardio completely fail him. I think the round 3 or decision is the best way to cover as many bases as possible while still getting a decent number. The finish would come late if it does at all, but the last few times I've done this, we've seen the fighter gas out even earlier than I expected and get finished in the last round that could've had me lose (Burns didn't make it to the 3rd, Makwan Amirkhani didn't make it to the 3rd, and Kai Kara-France didn't make it to the 4th).
Loopy Godinez defeats Angela Hill Result: Hill by decision (4-2)
This almost feels like the Serghei Spivac fight from last week to me. Angela Hill is probably better than the general fan consensus, but this is an absolutely awful style matchup for her. Hill is at her best when she is in a high volume kick boxing match, which is the exact opposite of what she'll be getting here. She's a decent enough striker and throws with decent volume and diversity on the feet, but she really struggles with wrestling heavy styles. As she's aged, her cardio has taken a hit as well and she'll slow as the fight goes on. On the other side, Loopy is one of the 3 best pure wrestlers in women's MMA. It makes sense since her sisters are Olympic wrestlers for Canada. She's not only a gifted wrestler, but she's a relentless one too. She has the cardio to shoot takedown after takedown for the entire 15 minutes if she has to. If she does get stuck on the feet, I think she is a solid enough boxer to hang with Hill. She is a bit hittable, but I don't think we'll see this fight on the feet for long stretches at all. Hill may be decent enough to stuff some takedowns or scramble back to her feet early, but I think Loopy really takes over late once Hill starts to slow down. I think we end up seeing a very similar fight script to the Hill vs Virna Jandiroba fight where Virna had a slight edge early and pulled away dramatically in the second half of the fight.
Bets to consider: Godinez by decision -150, Use Loopy as a parlay piece
Considering all of the dynamics at play here, I don't know how you could comfortably bet Hill in any capacity. We just saw Hill get out wrestled by Jandiroba, who while being a solid all around grappler, isn't as much of a wrestler. Loopy is significantly better in the wrestling than Virna, so I think we see her ground and control Hill pretty cleanly. I'm not really into laying juice on props, but I would be pretty surprised if we saw any other outcome than Godinez by decision. Loopy doesn't really have a ton of submission ability and I think Hill is too tough to end up being ground and pounded. I'm not really a parlay guy either, but I think using Loopy as a parlay leg is pretty reliable. I think she wins this fight pretty cleanly a vast majority of the time. I'm honestly not convinced she couldn't just edge out a win if this fight stayed on the feet either.
Bruno Silva defeats Gerald Meerschaert Result: Meerschaert by sub (4-3)
This one is going to get a little crazy I think. To me, this fight will have one of two very distinct outcomes. I think we either see Silva violently knock Meerschaert out, probably pretty early, or Meerschaert takes him down and submits him. Bruno Silva is a really big, strong guy with good power in his hands and a really good chin. Beyond that, he has some question marks. I don't think he is a poor technical striker, but he really isn't anything out of the ordinary there either. He hasn't been very good in the wrestling or overall grappling department in his career though. He has an ok takedown percentage in the UFC, but he doesn't look very natural defending them and he relies more on his physical strength in those situations than anything else. He also has a really bad habit of giving up his back to try and get up, which would be very bad in this matchup. He can also be held down for long stretches. Meerschaert on the other hand will be looking to grapple the whole time. He isn't a horrible technical striker, but any time spent at range is putting himself at danger in this fight. Meerschaert isn't exactly chinny, but he does have a history of being knocked out at this point, especially early in fights. What Meerschaert does do well is grapple. He isn't an exceptional wrestler, but he is a fairly decent one. He gets over 2 takedowns per 15 minutes and gets them at a 40% rate. If he doesn't get knocked out in the first exchange of the fight, I think Meerschaert has a decent chance of getting this fight down considering Silva's weakness in that aspect. Once on the ground, Meerschaert is a very dangerous submission threat and I would be pretty surprised if this fight hit the ground for an extended grappling exchange and Meerschaert didn't get the submission. Ultimately, I do think the Silva KO is the most likely outcome, but don't overlook Meerschaert here.
Bets to consider: Meerschaert submission +500, U1.5 total rounds -132
I think the only way to bet this fight directly is to go with Meerschaert by submission. Silva isn't nearly skilled enough to be laying -300 against most fighters, but especially someone who is so capable of taking advantage of his weaknesses. The Silva KO is sitting at -150 right now and I don't really see a whole lot of value there either. Meerschaert basically only wins by submission, so if he is going to win this fight, it will be by sub. I think taking a small jab at this at +500 is a fun play to make. I think if Meerschaert survives the first 90 seconds, he has a solid chance to get a takedown and if he gets the fight down, he has a really good chance at getting Silva's back. The under 1.5 covers both that scenario and the quick Silva knockout and to get that anywhere close to even money sounds at least interesting. I wouldn't play it heavily, but a small play on the under 1.5 seems like a solid spot to me.
Priscila Cachoeira defeats Ariane Lipski Result: Cachoeira by KO (5-3)
This is the last fight on this card that was cancelled and is taking place today. I do have some different thoughts so I'm going to leave what I wrote last week and then adjust afterwards.
"This is a weird style matchup. Overall, Lipski is the more technically advanced fighter in all aspects. She is a fairly technical striker, who looks her best when the fight is more of a traditional striking battle. I often articulate this as saying that Lipski will look better when the fight is a pure contest of martial art skill and technique. When things turn from that into a "fight" she sort of starts to break down. Lipski is also a reasonably talented grappler both in the wrestling and submission facets. She hasn't wrestled a whole lot in her UFC career to date, but I think that would really be to her benefit in this fight. The reason this is a weird style matchup is because Cacheoira is going to do exactly what I said Lipski doesn't want. Cacheoira is going to come forward and throw lots of volume with pretty good power. Cacheoira has the same quality that I talked about with Jason Witt earlier in that she is very reliable in who she is as a fighter. She is going to fight largely the same way every single time. She is going to be aggressive and attempt to make this a fight. The downside of this is that she absorbs way too much damage and with someone with the power of Lipski, that could be an issue. Her durability doesn't seem quite as strong as it once was and it does feel like she is going to get knocked out at some point if she doesn't tighten up the defense. The real difference for me though is that Lipski will have a noticeable advantage on the ground if it gets there. Lipski hasn't looked good when she's been on bottom, but Cacheoira doesn't shoot for her own takedowns, so I don't think we'll see her there. Cachoeira has also looked really lost on bottom in the past and I think Lipski could get her there. Cachoeira hasn't really defended takedowns well and hasn't really shown much ability to stop her opponents from easily transitioning to very dominant positions, which we know Lipski can do. Ultimately, I lean Lipski here, but Cachoeira does have a path."
Obviously, my opinion on who wins this fight has flipped, but my general take above still largely holds true. The difference for me is that Lipski missed weight by a considerable amount and was deemed to be in such bad condition that the commission doctors pulled her from the fight. The fact that she can be pulled from a fight because she wasn't medically cleared to compete, but now is just perfectly fine a week later, seems a little strange to me. In a fight that I saw as being sort of even, just slightly leaning Lipski's way, I think that is enough to swing me to pick Cahoeira. If the weight miss and following health issues have any residual side effects, that only further pushes the fight in favor of Cachoeira.
Bets to consider: Cachoeira ML +164
I've never claimed to be a betting genius here, but this one is really going over my head. Last week, Lipski was lined around -170 in a fight that I said I favored her very slightly in. I wasn't too compelled to bet it just because I thought Lipski's inconsistency is what really tripped me up. The best version of Lipski with the right game plan would have looked -500, while the bad version of Lipski would look really bad. That led me to playing the under 2.5 rounds at +164 or something like that. The under is now at +138, which is enough of a dip that I'm not really quite as interested. However, in that time, Lipski missed the weight and then got pulled out of the fight by the doctors, so the response by the betting market is that she's gone from -170 to -205? I just don't understand where that comes from. You could have considered playing Cachoeira last week if you wanted to, but to see the line slide all the way to this makes it a pretty easy decision for me. I don't see how Cachoeira's chances are any worse than they were a week ago. If anything, everything that happened gives her a better chance, but now we get her at a better number.
Devin Clark defeats Azamat Murzakanov Result: Murzakanov by KO (5-4)
I think this is an odd fight, but I'm here for it. I decided to go with Clark here because I think he is just the far more proven and reliable fighter. Clark isn't an amazing fighter, but he's pretty solid in all aspects. He's not a fantastic striker and the weakest part of his game is his striking defense. He is there to be hit and he has been knocked out his fair share of times. However, I do think he is generally a pretty tough guy who isn't going to shy away from a fight or quit on himself. He is a bit on the lower output side at range, but it isn't shockingly low output either. I generally think he is a pretty solid wrestler as well. He gets takedowns at a 35% clip, which isn't fantastic, but he still gets just under 2.5 per 15 minutes. Clark isn't going to get tired either as he has good cardio and will fight until the final horn. Murzakanov really didn't impress me that much in his debut and he was well on his way to losing that fight before hitting a flying knee with 4 minutes to go. I think Clark is better than Nchukwi is and can push an even greater pace. What worries me is that I think Murzakanov is a fairly decent striker and has pretty nice power while he has the energy. I think he could definitely find Clark's chin and knock him out in the firs round, but after that, he looked absolutely exhausted. That came against a lower output fighter as well and Clark is going to push a higher pace than that. Based on what I've seen, Murzakanov isn't anything out of the ordinary wrestling wise, so I kind of think Clark can handle him there. As long as Clark doesn't get blasted early, I kind of think he just pressures and paces his way to a win, primarily in the grappling.
Bets to consider: Clark ML +126
I honestly don't know how someone could watch Murzakanov's debut and thinking betting him anywhere near -150 could be a good idea. Clark is really the only side to consider. For me, I think Clark should probably be a small favorite here, just based on his total body of work. He is much more reliable and proven, while what we've seen from Murzakanov hasn't been fantastic and we still have a lot of unknowns on top of that. I think a majority of Murzakanov's win equity is an early knockout and if that doesn't happen, Clark takes over late and depending on how badly Murzakanov gasses, he could either find a late finish or win a decision. If they line was a little wider, I may be more aggressive, but I'll have a small play on Clark.
Yazmin Jauregui defeats Iasmin Lucindo Result: Jauregui by decision (6-4)
This is a tough fight to gage as both fighters are very young and inexperienced. The video on both is pretty limited, so we're not working with much. This is about as "striker vs grappler" as a fight can get based on what I'm seeing. Lucindo is the grappler and I think she is a somewhat decent one. She has a decent enough top game and has controlled most of her opponents once she's gotten them down. My concern with her is that she seems pretty reliant on one variety of takedown. She really only uses a trip from the clinch, which if someone like me can pick up on that, certainly coaches have as well. If that takedown doesn't work for her, she will be in big trouble as her striking is very, very under developed. Jauregui is much more of a striker and I think she's generally a pretty good one. If this fight stays standing, Jauregui is going to dominate. I think the reason that I believe Jauregui gets the win is that she is also the much more physical fighter. I think she could be able to just out muscle Lucindo even if she doesn't know the exact proper technique on how to prevent the trips. Jauregui doesn't have the best takedown defense in general, but a lot of what I saw were more traditional wrestling type takedowns instead of the clinch trips she'll see here. Even then, Jauregui seems to have a pretty solid get up game, so even if she is taken down, my inclination is that she'll be able to get back up. My best guess is that Jauregui can keep this one standing long enough to do massive amounts of damage on the feet and pick up the win.
Bets to consider: Lucindo ML +172
For me, I just don't think betting this fight at all is a great idea. Both women are coming into the UFC with very limited experience and very questionable strength of competition. Given their age and experience level, I don't think it is unreasonable to expect either of them to look noticeably better. Even if that isn't the case, I don't necessarily think it is obvious as to who's skills would stand out more. Is Jauregui just that good of a striker that she makes her opponents look silly or are her opponents actually that bad? Is Lucindo that good of a grappler with a good top game or are her opponents that bad? For me, I just think there are way too many questions to really feel confident in either side until we see them against some opponents that we know something about. I think if there is a bet to make, it is on the underdog side. If Lucindo's grappling is for real and she can consistently ground this fight, she's going to look like a massive favorite. However, if she can't, she's going to get beaten up pretty badly on the feet. I think this is a spot to just watch and evaluate both fighters.
David Onama defeats Nate Landwehr Result: Landwehr by decision (6-5)
While I'm not really sure how this ended up a co-main event, I do think it will be a pretty fun fight. I generally like what David Onama brings to the table and I think he will most likely win this fight. Onama is a moderately well rounded fighter who is a more natural striker. He likes to come forward and throw with good volume and pretty good power as well. He is a decent enough offensive wrestler and he has some submissions in his back pocket when he needs them. His main weakness so far has been his defense in general. He gets hit a little too much on the feet and he's been taken down a little too easily. Landwehr on the other hand does a lot of similar things. He's also a solid all around fighter who prefers to keep things standing. He will also want to come forward and throw with big volume. He does lack behind Onama in power, but I do believe he will have the cardio advantage. While Landwehr has historically been a pretty durable guy, it does seem like he is beginning to lose some of that, while Onama seems to have a much more stable chin. Landwehr doesn't really do much offensive wrestling, but he does defend takedowns pretty well. Even if Onama got him down, I don't think Nate would be held down for very long as he does have a pretty nice get up game with a sense of urgency. I think the best path for Nate would be to really try and wrestle him, but that just isn't really what he does. This fight probably turns into a fire fight with both guys just trying to get off as much volume as they can and I think the power dynamic swings the pendulum in Onama's direction there. I think an Onama knockout is the most likely ending to this fight, but if Landwehr can get this fight extended, I don't think it is impossible that he can out-cardio him and win a close decision or maybe pick up a late finish of his own.
Bets to consider: Landwehr ML +260
This line has just gotten way out of hand. For someone to be lined at -340 like Onama is, there has to be a very clear and direct path for them to dominate the fight or other worldly finishing ability. I don't think there is a way for Onama to dominate this fight over the course of 15 minutes and he isn't Francis Ngannou, so that finishing ability isn't there. I don't really want bet Landwehr, but at the same time, it almost feels like you have to. I don't know that I'm going to, but I may make a small play on him just based on the numbers more than anything else. If Landwehr isn't knocked out early, I think this is probably a pretty competitive fight. To get that at +260 presents some value.
Dominick Cruz defeats Marlon Vera Result: Vera by KO (6-6)
I did a full preview on this one, so check that out for full details. At the end of the day, I just think Cruz is the better all around fighter here. I think he's going to out land Chito while he has energy without too much of an issue. I think Cruz is the better wrestler. While Chito will have a power and cardio advantage, I think that only goes so far. Chito's style of striking works best when he's matched up with someone who is willing to stand in front of him and Dom isn't going to do that. Dom is going to use his signature movement to move laterally and avoid a lot of those big shots. On top of that, Chito is very willing to fight off of his back when taken down and will concede control time. I understand that Dom could slow down in the second half of the fight and then he is more available to be hit, but is he really going to get front kicked in the chin or side kicked in the forehead? I kind of doubt it. I think Cruz wins a majority of the minutes and I don't think anyone really thinks otherwise, The key is how big Chito's moments are and I just think they'll be so limited because Cruz won't be there to be hit like some of Chito's more recent opponents.
Bets to consider: Cruz ML +198
I just really don't understand the pricing of this fight. I don't know what path of logic leads someone to thinking Chito should be -250 here. Some people are talking about Chito Vera like he's Derrick Lewis or something. Like he just has to sit back and wait to land the one shot that is just going to put an end to the night. It is a possibility because we saw him do it to Frankie Edgar, but at the same time, Chito was losing that fight up until that moment. This fight is likely going to see Cruz land more strikes and more takedowns against a fighter who accepts bottom position. I just don't know how that could lead someone to being +200. It simply just doesn't make any sense to me. If you're someone who is buying into the idea that Cruz is just done and he's going to gas and his chin is fading, that's fine, but I still don't see how that gets you all the way to -250. If anything, I think you could cap Chito at around -130, but I honestly think Cruz could be a small favorite. I just found another strange bet that fanduel is offering which is Cruz to win, land more takedowns, and land more significant strikes at +460. Whatever I was originally going to put on Cruz, I am going to split it and put half on the ML and half on that.
That's it from me on this card. It should be a pretty fun one. Leave any and all thoughts and predictions in the comments. Leave any bets your making down there as well. Thanks for reading, have a good day, and enjoy the fights. Official bets will be below.
Official Bets
Martin Buday round 3 or decision .75 units at +175 to win 1.31 units +1.31 units
Loopy Godinez by decision 2 units at -150 to win 1.33 units - 2 units
Gerald Meerschaert by sub .2 units at +500 to win 1 unit + 1 unit
Priscila Cachoeira ML .5 units at +164 to win .82 units + .82 units
Devin Clark ML .3 units at +126 to win .38 units - .3 units
Dominick Cruz ML .5 units at +198 to win .99 units - .5 units
Dominick Cruz to win, land more takedowns, and land more significant strikes .5 units at +460 to win 2.30 units - .5 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: - .17 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 6.96 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 6.79 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 6 - 6
Previous Year to Date Record: 204 - 123
Updated Year to Date Record: 210 - 129
I'm updating this a bit later than normal on Sunday afternoon, but what a weird night of fights. We got so many exciting bouts and a lot of strange decision making from a lot of fighters here. Overall, I think it all evened out and we had a very mediocre week. I ended up going .500 on the picks for a second straight week and finished the bets down .17 units. There's a lot to talk about, so let's just get to it.
As always, we start with going through the losses. The first one came when Tyson Nam knocked out Ode Osbourne. Essentially, the one way that I thought Nam could have won is what we saw play out. Ode was actually fighting pretty well early and was landing a lot of nice shots while largely avoiding what Nam was throwing back. He tried to throw a jumping knee and wasn't protecting himself at all when he was on his way back down. Nam landed a solid right hand on the chin and put Ode down before finishing him with some follow up shots. Our next loss was a curious one when Angela Hill beat Loopy Godinez. For some reason, Loopy decided she wasn't going to wrestle and I just can't figure out what it would have been. She got the one takedown pretty easily, but Hill grabbed onto a guillotine and got back up. That was basically all we saw from Loopy's grappling, which is what made her such a big favorite in the first place. On the feet, she was competitive, but she was just slightly a step behind Hill. This was just a very odd strategy that I don't think anyone really saw coming. Bruno Silva ended up losing to Gerald Meerschaert in a fight that was a little less surprising. Silva really wasn't able to connect with his shots very much at all. Gerald is a bit hittable, so I thought Silva would be able to have a little more success than he did. Meerschaert fought about as well as he could've in this fight and was able to sink in the choke after hurting Silva on the feet. Devin Clark lost to Murzakanov in a fight where he just didn't look very good. Murzakanov was largely able to do whatever he wanted and was hurting Clark pretty consistently. He eventually hurt him to the body and finished the fight soon after. Murzakanov seemed to do a better job of pacing himself and maintaining his cardio, which is a good sign for him going forward. I lost when Nate Landwehr defeated David Onama in what I thought was his best path to victory. He was hurt badly in the first, but after he survived that, he really turned up the volume and out worked Onama for the last 2 rounds. He was able to put a pace on him that had Onama searching and Nate was hurting him over and over again. Onama had a few moments left in him where he was able to hurt Nate or at least hit him pretty hard, but Nate brought an onslaught and took those last 2 rounds pretty convincingly. The last loss was the main event, which saw Chito Vera knock Dominick Cruz out with a high kick in pretty devastating fashion. I don't want to give too much away for their full post coming next, but I think the fight was sorting of playing out in the way that most logical people were expecting. Cruz was winning a vast majority of the exchanges and minutes, but Chito was having the bigger moments and was potentially stealing rounds because of it. Then Chito landed the big kick as Dom was dipping his head off to the side and put him down and partially out.
Now we can be more positive in talking about the wins. The first one was Josh Quinlan and I think that was generally the outcome that most were expecting. Witt was going to be able to wrestle him, but it really only felt like a matter of time before he got knocked out. His chin has really diminished and with someone as powerful as Quinlan, it didn't feel like it would take more than a clean shot or two for the fight to come to an end. The way Witt went down was actually pretty scary and I think it may be time for him to really consider moving on from the sport. This isn't the first time that we've seen him knocked out badly like this and each one only makes it a little worse. Benitez vs Ontiveros also felt like an outcome that everyone was sort of expecting. Ontiveros is moderately talented, but he just doesn't really feel like a guy who embraces the "fight" he is really athletic and big and can do some impressive techniques, but I don't really know that he embraces the dirtiness of a fight enough to have success against UFC level competition. Benitez just had to weather an early storm of kicks and eventually worked his way inside to land the shots that got the finish. Nina Nunes edged out a win in what she announced was the final fight of her career. It wasn't a jaw dropping performance by any means, but she was pretty consistently winning a lot of the exchanges on the feet and landed some really strong low kicks. Calvillo opted not to wrestle, which was very strange, but Nunes did what she needed to do. Congrats to her on a great career and best of luck with continuing to expand her family. Martin Buday was a questionable win because I thought he lost the fight. He very clearly lost the first and while the next two were moderately competitive, I thought Brzeski was landing a little cleaner. With that said, I don't think my read was completely off as I imagined that Buday would do better later in the fight and that neither guy was too likely to finish the fight. The problem was that Buday didn't look to clinch the fight hardly at all. He tried a couple of times while Brzeski was fresh and then he just never went back to it. He probably lost, but I'll take the wins where I can get them. Our next win was Priscila Cachoeira and she actually made it a lot easier and cleaner than I was expecting. I thought we would probably get a little more of a competitive fight here, but Cachoeira did her thing and found the knockout. She came forward and turned it into a brawl, which is exactly what she needed. Lipski broke down under the chaos, which she is prone to doing, and opted to try and trade instead of potentially trying to take the fight to the ground. I still think the weight miss and being pulled from the fight had something to do with what we saw, even though there's no way of knowing for sure. My final win of the night ended up being a read that I really missed on, even though I hinted at the possibility of that in the moment. Yazmin Jauregui ended up getting a decision win, but not really in the way that most people envisioned. I was expecting Jauregui to have no problem on the feet and that really wasn't the case. Lucindo didn't grapple as much as I expected, but she held her own in the striking exchanges much better than anticipated. Jauregui was more technical over and that led to her landing her shots a little more frequently and a touch cleaner, but that was a lot more competitive standing than I anticipated. I think that could have been a case where fighters in their early 20s just make significant strides from fight to fight, which is why I stayed away from it on my bets.
The bets are the final thing to go over today and it was a bit of a frustrating night. There were a few plays that I ended up deciding against at the last minute, which would have had this night looking a lot different, but that's the game we play sometimes. It isn't all complaints though because I think I got lucky with the first play that I did make, which was Buday round 3 or decision. Like I said before, I thought Buday lost that fight, but we got the decision in our favor, so not making those plays evened out with getting the benefit of the judges on this one. My biggest play of the night by far was on Loopy Godinez and that one hurt. I don't know if there was any way to predict that she wasn't going to wrestle, but if there was, I certainly didn't pick up on them. I still believe Loopy is one of the best wrestlers in women's MMA and I can't imagine why she would have went away from it against someone we know struggles against grappling heavy game plans. Maybe there was some sort of injury that we didn't know about that limited her ability to shoot or it could have limited her in camp and left her cardio limited. If she knew she couldn't push that pace, then maybe that is why she didn't wrestle, but I'm just grasping at straws. If Loopy was perfectly fine and just chose to have a close standup fight with someone who doesn't grapple well, then I think she needs to find a new team. I don't think there was any way to predict that, but now that we've seen it once, we have to consider that with Loopy going forward. We then picked up 2 small wins in a row when we cashed the Meerschaert submission and the Cachoeira win. I felt like Meerschaert had a real chance to win, especially if he wasn't quickly knocked out, but he was honestly way better than I expected. I really didn't think he would avoid damage and have as much success on the feet as he did. The fact that he hurt Silva as badly as he did was also a bit surprising because we just saw Silva go the distance with Alex Pereira. In true GM3 fashion, he passed up the TKO that was sitting right in front of him for the guillotine, which cashed our bet even though he probably should've just thrown a few more strikes. We cashed on Priscila Cachoeira a lot easier than I expected. I though the line was maybe a little wide last week, but to see it get wider this week after everything that happened was enough to have me make the bet and it worked out without too much worry as well. The final 2 bets failed when Cruz was knocked out in the main event. Like I said, I don't want to give away too much of what I'm going to say in their full post, but I think the fight was going how most thought. We saw a version of the fight where Chito's moments won out in a big way. If there was anywhere I was wrong, it's that Dom's chin was in worse shape than I expected. I was correct in that I thought Dom wouldn't get hit a ton, which he wasn't, but almost every time Chito connected, it was effecting Dom and hurting him. Obviously, most people aren't eating a kick to the face that badly breaks their nose, but that isn't what I'm referring to mostly. Chito was landing some basic straight right hands that were sitting Cruz down and after the second one, I started to get a bad feeling that Cruz wasn't just going to keep popping up. Cruz was making Chito miss and evading pretty well, but he couldn't literally get hit 0 times, and it almost feels like that's what he needed. Chito's power was just too much and if he could land more than a couple solid shots in a round, he was going to get a knockdown. I think Dom would have a had a good shot if he could have gotten the fight to the scorecards, but after the midpoint of the fight, he just didn't quite look the same. Chito was starting to land more and then landed the huge kick. This is a hotly contested fight on social media as a lot of the "just bet winners" crowd was proclaiming that Chito at -250 was value, but it is what it is. I think a more processed approach to betting is the best way to ensure success over the long term, but maybe that is just the math background in me.
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