The UFC is back on the schedule for tomorrow and is also back on the road as they'll be in front of a live audience in San Diego. In the post pandemic era, the UFC has been loading up the cards that are in front of fans, but this is a much more ordinary Fight Night card, but the main event makes it all worth it. At least for me, this is one of the more interesting Fight Night main events of the year with Aspinall vs Blaydes and Gamrot vs Tsarukyan coming to mind as well. I'm excited to see this fight play out because I think the margins are very thin on each side. It should be a very close and competitive fight that I'm pumped to see play out. Bantamweight is also my favorite division in the UFC and all of MMA, so any chance I get to see a big and meaningful fight in this division, I'm already sold. Let's get right into it.
Dominick Cruz comes into this fight ranked lower and will be in the blue corner. To start, I have to admit that I am a fan of Cruz, so just keep that in mind incase you're picking up on some unintended bias. Cruz's resume has him in position where he is probably the greatest bantamweight of all time. He was the WEC bantamweight champion and then was the initial UFC champion once the WEC was absorbed into the UFC. He defended his UFC title against Urijah Faber and Demetrious Johnson. It was before his next title defense that his unfortunate string of injuries began. He would tear his ACL and undergo surgery. A complication with the initial repair resulted in a second surgery and extended his layoff. About 2 and a half years after the DJ fight, Cruz was scheduled to return, but would have to pull out after suffering a groin injury. He would finally make his comeback to the octagon after almost 3 years away when he picked up a TKO victory over Takeya Mizugaki. His next fight would come against TJ Dillashaw and would see Cruz reclaim his title via split decision. He would then complete the trilogy with Faber with a UD win. Cruz would lose his title to Cody Garbrandt in one of the best individual performances in modern UFC history. Cruz was expected to make his return to action a year after that fight against Jimmie Rivera, but pulled out of the fight after breaking his arm. About a year after that, Cruz was scheduled to face John Lineker, but a shoulder injury forced him out of that bout as well. His over 3 year layoff would finally come to an end when he stepped in to fight Henry Cejudo for the title in a fight that saw Cejudo notch a second round TKO. That brings us to Cruz's most recent run, which has seen him collect decision wins over Casey Kenney and Pedro Munhoz. I think being a little longer on Cruz's resume is worth it because his injury history has played a huge part in his career arc. Cruz has spent so much time rehabbing and just trying to get back to where he was that I think people are underestimating the possibility that he could still be improving to a degree. Obviously at 36, Cruz isn't likely to be learning anything drastically new, but he has spent so many years just trying to get his body healthy enough to compete that I think he may have more left in the tank than people give him credit for now that he's had a few fight camps in a row where he can focus on getting better instead of just rehabbing injuries. Cruz's style is one of the most unique that we've seen. I would say he is primarily a striker, but he is way more well rounded than some like to admit. On the feet, he uses an unusual style of lateral movement that is really all his own. It is hard to articulate exactly because he is very unorthodox in his in and out movements, while also going side to side. His striking is also heavily reliant on the use of feints to keep his opponent guessing. He isn't an especially high volume striker, but he is able to get ahead on the total strikes because of his striking defense. He just doesn't get hit that much at all, at least historically. Cruz's wrestling has always been an underrated portion of his game. He averages almost 3 takedowns per 15 minutes and gets them at a 48% rate. I think Cruz's wrestling doesn't get talked about that much because his overall grappling is just kind of average. He doesn't always have the best top control, so even though he is landing takedowns, his opponents have been able to work back up somewhat quickly. Cruz also doesn't really have much of a submission game as his only career submission came at Total Combat 16. I think the biggest questions surrounding Cruz's game at this point is just how much he has left. Between his age, the miles he's put on his tires, and all of the injuries, it is safe to say that we'll probably never see the WEC level Cruz again, but that doesn't mean he can't still win big fights. I think the main concern when it comes to this fight specifically is Cruz's cardio. When he fought Casey Kenney a couple of fights ago, he started to slow down late in that fight, which was only 3 rounds. With this being a 5 round fight, there is a concern that he just may not be able to compete late if he slows around the same time. The reason I'm not more concerned on that front is just because that was only Cruz's second fight in about 5 years. Of course, it is possible that Cruz's gas tank just isn't capable sustaining that amount of movement anymore at his age. It is also possible that Cruz's cardio was diminished because the amount of training he had done in the last 5 years had also diminished because of the injuries. I think it is in the range of possible outcomes that Cruz's cardio ends up being just fine for this fight since he's had 3 healthy camps in a row. The other concern for Cruz is that it seems like his chin isn't quite what it used to be. I wouldn't go as far as to say that he's chinny, but he can and has been both hurt and dropped more often recently. Cruz is going to need to bring his A game defensively because we know that Vera has the power to do real damage. Even after all of his injuries and years of competition, Dominick Cruz is still a very live contender in this bantamweight division.
Marlon "Chito" Vera comes into this fight higher ranked and as a pretty nice sized favorite. Chito has been around longer than a lot of people probably remember. He made his promotional debut back in 2014. After an up and down start, he started off his run towards the top in 2018 when he went on a 5 fight winning streak that ended with a TKO of Andre Ewell. That win got him a big opportunity against Song Yadong that he would lose in a controversial decision. The general consensus seemed to be that Chito won the fight, but all 3 judges scored it for Song. That is what put Chito into the Sean O'Malley fight, which he would win by first round TKO after he injured O'Malley's leg with a low kick. As with any Sean O'Malley fight, there was a lot of arguing back and forth between fans, but that was clearly the biggest win of Chito's career to date. He parlayed this into some pretty big fights. He would drop his next fight to Jose Aldo before winning his last 3. He picked up a tough decision win over Davey Grant, then brutally knocked out Frankie Edgar, and his last fight saw him defeat Rob Font in his first main event. Chito's style can be summed up by the popular "he's got that dog in him" X-ray meme. I think the best part of Chito's game is that he's a true fighter at heart. He's a tough guy, who isn't afraid to walk through hell in order to come out a winner. He's a pretty solid striker with fantastic cardio and he can snatch a submission if his opponent isn't careful. Vera is certainly more of a striker and he is sort of hard to explain with his volume. If you just look at his stats, his volume looks like it would be fine, but watching him fight, he doesn't feel high volume. Despite having seemingly endless cardio, Chito doesn't really weaponize his pace as much as he should or at least he doesn't do it as effectively as you would like. He has this thing about him where he sort of fights at the pace that his opponent sets. He's capable of landing strikes with great volume, but he only does so when his opponent also wants to land at a high volume. When his opponent wants a slower paced fight, he is willing to give into that. He landed a ton of strikes against Rob Font, but Font was also landing a ton. His volume was way down against Jose Aldo, who wanted that slower, more methodical and technical fight. What Chito does do well on the feet is bring a diverse set of strikes from all ranges. Chito was using a lot of low kicks against Font and I would think he would like to do that against Cruz if possible. Slowing down Cruz's movement with those low kicks would be huge if he can land them consistently. Chito has also had some success in the clinch using both knees and elbows as well. All of his kicks were working against Font last time as we saw him landing kicks to the legs, body, and face of Font. Chito also brings some above average pop in all of his strikes for the division. Chito has 15 finishes in his 19 career wins, which isn't as common in the lower weight classes. He probably should have picked up another knockout in his last fight, but somehow, Rob Font was tough enough to somehow survive some pretty heavy damage to take the fight to decision. While it hasn't been as effective for him lately in the UFC, Chito has a pretty slick submission game. He attempts submissions at a decent enough rate, but he hasn't hit as many recently as he did in the past. He has been given more striking heavy opponents over the last few years, so that likely contributes at least some. I think the biggest weak spot in Chito's game is his wrestling. He's an ok defensive wrestler as he stops takedowns at a 68% rate, which is solid. He doesn't really do much of any offensive wrestling, which also limits his ability to find submissions as when he's on the ground, he is typically on the bottom. He only finds top position if he hurts someone and then jumps on them that way. One thing that worries me for him both short and long term is that he does have a tendency to fight off of his back. He trusts his submissions so much that he passes up opportunities to get back to his feet and he can be held down if he found himself in the wrong matchup. Against someone like Cruz, that could end up being the difference. I don't want to get into the actual matchup in this section though, so let's just go right to it.
At the end of the day, I think this fight will come down to a couple of things. The most likely scenario is the Cruz will win a majority of the minutes and Chito is going to have the bigger moments. If Cruz can find a way to limit those moments, then he should have a path to victory by decision. The interesting dynamic will be what happens when/if Cruz starts to slow. We know Chito isn't going to get tired, but if Cruz does, that will help Chito land those big shots. Personally, I think Dom should win rounds pretty cleanly while he has the energy. Chito's big shots are kind of reliant on his opponent standing in front of him and being there to hit. If there's anything we can count on, it's the Dom is going to be on the move and is going to land when he can and then stay on his bike with his lateral movement. I think Dom will be able to out land Chito in the early rounds without too much of an issue. I think the best route for Chito in those rounds is to realize that he will probably be behind and not panic, which he does pretty well for the most part. He rarely gets frazzled or completely thrown off of his game. He is pretty reliable to do what he is going to do. I think it would behoove him to try and land his low kicks on Cruz to try and limit his movement later in the fight. If he gets caught just chasing Dom around the cage, he will get out struck pretty cleanly. However, if he can make that investment in the legs, he may still lose those rounds, but he'll be making the later rounds easier on himself in the process. As the fight goes on, if Dom slows either on his own or his movement is limited due to low kicks, Chito will have more openings to land. We can clearly see that Dom's chin isn't what it used to be and he's been hurt somewhat consistently. I have no doubt that if Chito can land some flush shots that he can hurt him. He's just going to have to give himself the chance. Dom isn't going to stand in front of Chito and allow himself to be hit the way someone like Font did. In the striking, I think we see Cruz come out hot and then Chito closes that gap late. The wildcard here is the grappling. We know Chito won't be wrestling unless something has gone very wrong, but Cruz will likely mix it in at some point. I think Cruz is probably going to get a takedown at some point as Chito is good enough to stuff some attempts, but I think Cruz is good enough to get one or two. Once the fight hits the ground, it will be very interesting to watch play out. Cruz really doesn't get a ton of top control time on his takedowns, but Chito is willing to give up control time. If Cruz is able to get takedowns somewhat consistently, that would throw a huge wrench into this fight. He would probably be able to stay on top because Chito is very reliable to try and play the jiu-jitsu game and throw up a submission here and there from guard. If that is what he ends up doing, that would be a great way for Cruz to extend his cardio. If he can get an early round just from riding out like 3 minutes of top time, that could make a huge difference late. Chito could certainly find a knockout at some point, but it sort of feels like that makes up a pretty significant portion of his win equity in this fight. As things sit right now, I'm leaning towards Cruz, but Chito has the toughness and cardio to make it interesting and close down the stretch.
What do you guys think? What are your predictions? What are the keys for both sides? Leave any and all thoughts in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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