I've seen some people saying this card is awful and I'm not sure I really understand where this is coming from. We have a Fight Night with an ok main event, legitimate co-main, and then another fight between two ranked fighters. I get that in years past that would be a weaker card, but in the world we live in, this is a solid Fight Night. I haven't watched a season of TUF in I don't know how long, but the finales being on this card makes those fights somewhat interesting. While I think interest in TUF is as low as it has ever been, I still feel good for the winners because that is a huge step towards them getting where they want to be. You obviously don't have to be excited for any card if you choose not to be, but I don't think this is even close to the worst card this year and I doubt it will play out as such either. I think this is just the standard Fight Night card, but if you think otherwise, I would love to hear your explanation. Anyways, let's start figuring this card out. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom.
Stephanie Egger defeats Mayra Bueno Silva Result: Silva by sub (0-1)
To start the night, we have one of those fights that feels like it has two very distinct possible outcomes. Either Egger is going to get this fight to the ground and she's going to grind out a decision or Silva is going to keep this standing and she's going to beat up Egger pretty badly. The striking advantage in this one goes to Silva and it is going to be noticeable. She is aggressive both in her pressure and her volume and she has pretty good power for her size. Egger on the other hand is very unnatural on the feet and you can almost see her thinking through the process while she's at range. Her range striking attack leaves a lot to be desired as she throws virtually no volume and is sort of limited to outside kicks. The wrestling and ground game will favor Egger here though. I think Egger is actually a pretty solid wrestler by MMA standards and is very good once she is on top. Silva isn't necessarily a poor defensive wrestler, but I don't think she's an amazing one either. She isn't going to just fall over, but she can be taken down. What worries me for her is that she is really content to fight off of her back once she is on the ground. If Egger gets a takedown, it feels like she is almost guaranteed to control the rest of the round from top position. Silva does have a pretty decent submission game from her back, which leads her to being so willing to throw them up and thus being stuck on her back for long stretches. I generally think Egger is good enough to not get submitted from guard, so I wouldn't be too worried about that. I think the reason I lean slightly towards Egger here is that Silva doesn't really keep the distance that well. She's so aggressive and looking to put on the pressure that she will often crash into the clinch, which is where Egger needs this fight to be. I think I favor Egger ever so slightly, but I can't say I feel confident in either side here. If Egger can get to her takedowns, she probably wins somewhat easily, but if she can't ground the fight, Silva probably wins pretty clearly.
Bets to consider: Egger by decision +160, FGTD -182, Silva finish only +104
As things currently stand (I'm writing this Friday afternoon), I don't think the moneyline situation is a great look. I know some people got Egger at plus money, which isn't a bad bet, but with her currently sitting at -136, I don't see any value there. Honestly, if she keeps taking on money and we see Silva get to +120 or better, then that is probably the side to be on. If you are more confident in Egger than I am, I think betting her by decision would be the play. Her path to victory is going to be via a lot of top control and I don't think she is aggressive enough in her submission game or ground and pound to find a finish from the top. If you want the Silva side in this fight, I think the finish only being plus money is a decent enough look. I think a majority of the finishing potential in this fight is on her side. That would cover both her knocking out Egger on the feet or a potential submission from guard. With Egger's finishing potential being pretty limited, I think this could be worthwhile at this number. The fight goes the distance at -182 is more of a play of the narrative more than anything. Silva does have a legitimate chance to finish this fight, but seeing a women's MMA fight going the distance at better than -200 isn't the worst look in the world. I don't know that there is a ton of value here, but it could be worth a consideration, especially if you think Egger gets takedowns.
Miranda Grainger defeats Cory McKenna Result: McKenna by sub (0-2)
This is a fight and a half here. What I'm about to go through as no business being as long as it is going to be for a fight that really shouldn't be happening in the UFC. Grainger is coming off of a 2 year layoff after having a baby, so the current state of her game is kind of unknown. We don't really know how long she's been back to training and how hard that training really was. That leaves her cardio as a big question mark. If we just assume that she is coming back as the same fighter that she was when we last saw her, then she will have a chance in this fight. She isn't the best striker in the world, but she is ok. She is a bit on the low output side, but she also does a decent job of minimizing the output coming back her way and avoiding damage. She is only absorbing 2.64 strikes per minute, which will help her if this is largely a kickboxing match. When she has been taken down, she has not looked very good from bottom position and I wouldn't doubt that McKenna could finish her there. McKenna is generally the type of fighter that I am a bit skeptical of, but she was getting so much love in her last fight that I bought in and then she really didn't deliver. She is an ok striker, but her defense on the feet needs some work. She takes too much damage in general and a lot of the shots that she does take are clean and flush. She really needed to work on her head movement coming into this fight. I was assuming she would grapple her way to a victory last time when she had a similar advantage to the one she has here, but she never really even tried that hard for takedowns, which is becoming a trend. Despite having these grappling advantages, she is more content to stand and strike. She strikes with decent volume, but she has very little power and gets hit way too much. She lacks athleticism as well, so she doesn't have tremendous hand speed or the ability to just dodge punches either. You may be asking how I could pick Granger despite McKenna having a huge grappling advantage and the fight probably being competitive on the feet, but I think a huge issue will be the massive size advantage that Grainger has. Grainger is pretty big for the weight class both in terms of her general size and her length. She will probably be the stronger fighter in this one and his going to have a 10 inch reach advantage. This, combined with the fact that McKenna really doesn't seem to place a huge emphasis on her offensive wrestling anymore, leads me to believe that Grainger will be able to stop the limited takedown attempts coming her way. That leaves us with a range kickboxing match that should be more or less even skill wise with McKenna having a slight volume advantage, but having to deal with that massive reach problem. I don't know that McKenna is technical enough to close that distance without taking damage on the way in and I know she's not the kind of athlete who will be able to use speed and explosion to get in and out without taking damage. To me, I think this fight ends up a sloppy, close kickboxing match. I'll give a slight lean to the significantly longer fighter with an opponent who gets hit too much.
Bets to consider: Grainger ML +172
This fight has way too many unknowns for me to really have any interest in betting it, but if there is a side, I think it is Grainger. I think her overall size and length advantage could make it hard for McKenna to get this fight to the ground. If this fight is left standing, I think it is going to be a 50/50 fight. At +172, it could be worth the shot if you have more conviction than I do. With the extended layoff, that is enough for me to want to stay away from Grainger unless this line got even wider. At +200, I think I may be convinced, but not here. Even if you're a believer in McKenna, I'm not sure how you would go about betting her. I don't think betting her at greater than -200 on the money line is a smart idea against anyone at this stage. To pick a method of victory would kind of just be guessing and I don't really have any real reason to lean towards one method over another. McKenna by decision is still at minus money, so that really isn't in play in my opinion. I think she could definitely finish Grainger on the mat, but that assumes she can get takedowns and that she actually attempts takedowns. Once grounded, I would assume she would be more likely to finish by ground and pound than submission, but Grainger's ground game is limited enough that I think McKenna could find the submission despite not being known for that part of her game. I guess if you're really looking for one, the KO/TKO at +750 is a decent enough if you think McKenna gets the fight down, but I would stay away from this fight unless you're desperate for a play.
Josh Quinlan defeats Jason Witt Result: Cancelled
This is a weird fight. This fight feels like Jason Witt is going to be winning the entire fight up until the exact moment that he loses. Witt is generally the style of fight that I like to back because he is very predictable and reliable to do what he does and he's reliable to be bad at what he is normally bad at. There is very little guessing when it comes to Witt, which is nice in a sport where there is generally so much guess work being done. Witt is a pretty good wrestler and he's reliable to both attempt and land takedowns. He hits his takedowns at a 48% rate, which is pretty solid and lands over 6 per 15 minutes, which shows he is attempt them with good volume. The problem is that, at this stage of his career, that is really all Witt has going for him. His striking isn't awful, but it really isn't an asset for him. He's very low output and his power isn't anything out of the ordinary. His striking defense isn't very good either and he gets hit far too easily. On top of that, as Witt has aged, his chin has deteriorated to the point where he just isn't taking shots very well anymore at all. On the other side, I think Quinlan is just sort of ok as an overall fighter. He brings legitimate power on the feet and he has wrestled offensively at times, but much prefers that this fight stay standing. Quinlan's defensive wrestling isn't the best as he has been taken down rather easily at times in the past. What makes all of this a little more difficult to narrow down is that Quinlan's strength of competition is a bit lacking. A few years ago, I think Witt wins this fight without too much of an issue, but his chin really has me worried. Honestly, I think the first clean shot is probably enough to end this fight for Quinlan. I can't imagine that Witt can survive long stretches on the feet in this one given how hittable he is. I think Witt could still win, but he would have to be almost perfect. I really believe that Witt would need 11 or 12 minutes of ground control to win this fight at this stage of his career. I think Witt probably looks good early in this fight and then once he starts to slow down, the takedowns won't come as easily and that is when he'll start taking damage and get finished.
Bets to consider: Witt ML +198
This is another hard fight to find a bet for. I think the only way to really play this is to go with the Witt side and hope he gets takedowns quickly enough to not get knocked out in each round. Quinlan won't be winning minutes in this fight and it will just come down to if he can land that big punch. At +200, it may be worth a shot. Quinlan won't be winning a decision in this fight unless he somehow hurts Witt in 2 rounds without finishing him. +200 is an implied probability of 33%, so I think you're starting to get into the range where Witt can become playable if you really want to test it. Again, this is just another fight that I think you should just watch from the sidelines.
Bryan Battle defeats Takashi Sato Result: Battle by KO (1-2)
This fight honestly seems like one of the more straight forward fights on the card for me. I think Battle will largely have the advantages in virtually every facet of this fight. Battle is just an ok wrestler, but not anything out of the ordinary. He isn't particularly efficient with his takedowns, but he is persistent enough to average over 1 per 15 minutes. On the ground, I really like what Battle offers as he is pretty good with his submissions and while he does tend to go the submission route, he will ground and pound as well. On the feet, Battle seems on the ordinary side, but he is really able to push a pace that others just haven't held up to most of the time. He isn't supremely technical on the feet and his power is average at best, but he is willing to go forward and continue to put punches in his opponent's face. If there's a weakness in Battle's game, it's that he lacks elite level athleticism and explosion, which will probably limit him at some point. His striking defense could be improved on as well as he does get hit a little too cleanly sometimes and has been hurt because of it. Overall, he has shown himself to be a pretty tough guy, so I wouldn't be too worried about him being finished in this specific fight. Battle is one of those guys who isn't anything special at any one thing, but he's solid enough everywhere that when combined with a solid chin and good cardio, he isn't an easy out. Sato on the other hand is a fighter who has a much more narrow skill set. He doesn't do much offensive wrestling and even if he tried, I don't think he would have a ton of success. Defensively, he is just sort of ordinary. His 60% takedown defense isn't terrible, but it isn't anything special either. A big hole in Sato's game is that when he does get taken down, he almost always gives his back to get up. This was a huge problem for him last time against Gunnar Nelson when Nelson was able to control his back for long stretches because Sato allowed him to after every takedown. If Battle can get to his takedowns, I have confidence in his ability to take Sato's back after he presents the opportunity. Sato's path to victory is on the feet, but I don't even feel great about him there. He uses this odd style where he likes to be at range and then sort of lunges into the pocket and throws a 1-2 combination and then exits the pocket. He seems to want to rely on landing big shots and getting knockouts, but I don't think his power is anything more than average for the division. The major concern for Sato on the feet is that he is extremely low volume. He is sort of content to stay at range where he just waits for the opportunity to land a big right hand. Being that he keeps distance for much of the fight, he doesn't really take a ton of damage, but he throws so little that I expect Battle to outland him without really even trying that hard. As I said before, Battle's defense isn't spectacular and he has been hurt before, so Sato could knock him out, but I'm not really sure what his path to victory is beyond that.
Bets to consider: Battle by submission or decision -200
This is another incredibly difficult fight to bet. I honestly don't think the Battle money line is the worst look in the world at -290, but I don't think there is a ton of value to be had. I think getting Battle by submission or decision at -200 is a little bit better since that is virtually his entire pie chart for methods of victory. I would be legitimately shocked if Battle gets a knockout here, so to shave some of that number, down that is the way to do it in my opinion. I've seen some people really on the Sato side here and I just don't really understand it. I get that opening your app and seeing Battle at -300 may be surprising on first glance, but digging into this fight, it is clear to me that it is entirely justified. The people who are on Sato seem to be really putting a lot of stock in Sato's previous knockouts, which came against fighter's with questionable durability, and Battle's defensive limitations. Battle is more hittable than I would like, but at the same time, I don't think Sato is the guy to knock someone stiff who has a chin that is in good shape. Some twitter cappers are talking about Sato like he's Derrick Lewis and he just has to find the opening for one big shot. Even if Sato lands that shot here, I'm not convinced that he will even hurt Battle and that is if he actually lands it. I just think his path to victory in this one is so narrow that having Battle lined at 75% is probably accurate.
Terrance McKinney defeats Erick Gonzalez Result: McKinney by sub (2-2)
This should end up being a pretty wild fight for as long as it lasts. Terrance McKinney is someone who I think has a legitimate future in this sport. He has incredibly diverse and advanced skills for someone of his age and experience level. He's a high level athlete and the power and explosion in his strikes support as much. He's also a pretty good wrestler and has reasonably good submission skills to go along with it. My main concern with McKinney is that he doesn't really come into fights with a gameplan. His "plan" is just to come out and sprint as hard as he can for as long as he can and find the finish. He's going to be throwing wild bombs and fishing for submissions basically as quickly as he can. This has led him to a lot of success and fan support as he is very exciting to watch, but we also saw what can happen when it doesn't work. Even though he had Drew Dober hurt, when he didn't get the finish and Dober recovered, McKinney basically had nothing left and got finished in the first round himself. I think what makes this so confusing is that McKinney isn't a guy who has to fight this way. There are some other fighters, some on this card in fact, that I wish had more of this element to their game because it would actually give them their best chance to win. McKinney is so talented in all facets of MMA, that if he came into fights with just a normal gameplan, I think he would still win fights at a very high rate. The worry with McKinney is what happens if he doesn't finish Gonzalez in the first 4 minutes? He is just going to be left hanging on. The reason I'm not more worried about this is that I don't really think Gonzalez has the tools to do much about it. He is a primarily a striker and he did have Jim Miller hurt in his debut, so that is at least something. He has a sufficient amount of power for the division, but I don't really know what much else he has beyond that. If he somehow can survive the early onslaught that McKinney will bring, I do think he has the power to get a knockout himself, he just has to make it there. The way he got badly folded by Miller in that fight though has me worried about what McKinney can do to him if he connects. I just don't think Gonzalez is ready for this level of competition and he probably loses pretty quickly.
Bets to consider: Gonzalez ITD +1000
If you look at these lines and just auto-bet Gonzalez, I honestly couldn't blame you. This kind of reminds me of the Molly McCann fight from a few weeks ago because while the favorite has no business being as big of a favorite as they are, it feels like something really unforeseen is going to have to happen for them to lose. With that said, I don't know how anyone could justify betting a fighter at -1050 who has about 4 minutes of cardio. If Erick Gonzalez can even make it to the midpoint of round 1, he starts to have a chance because McKinney is going to start to slow rapidly at that point. I honestly think if this fight got extended, McKinney could go full Herbert Burns death gas and not be able to stand up. If this fight gets past 4 minutes, Gonzalez has a legitimate chance and wouldn't even have to really do a whole lot to find a finish of his own in my estimation. I suppose it is possible that McKinney could just take him down and lay on top of him for the rest of the fight, but I'm not sure how much energy McKinney would have to even attempt takedowns. At +1000, there's worse things to throw a dollar or two on if you feel really compelled to bet this fight. With McKinney being so gifted both with his power and submission game, I don't think there is really any way to bet by KO or by sub and the numbers really aren't even that great anyways. His ITD is -450 and even him in the first round is -170. I don't think there's any way to bet McKinney unless you're willing to try and guess if he wins by KO or sub with a very limited return on both numbers.
Michal Oleksiejczuk defeats Sam Alvey Result: Leksiejczuk by KO (3-2)
I really don't know what is left to say about Sam Alvey that hasn't already been said. I honestly feel bad for the guy because he is basically just a meme at this point that the UFC keeps sending out there. It really feels like he's around just because twitter goes crazy when he isn't released and then goes crazy when his fight is announced. It is just going to make me depressed when he walks out with the smiley face shaved into the back of his head and does his smile into the camera just to see him get blasted again. Someone really needs to step in and do something about this. Even if he finds a way to win this fight, this just shouldn't be happening. Tyron Woodley was a former champion who lost 4 fights in a row to Usman, Burns, Colby, and Luque and Dana White launched him into the sun. Junior Dos Santos was another former champion who lost 4 in a row to Ngannou, Blaydes, Rozenstruik, and Gane and the UFC got rid of him unceremoniously like it was the most obvious decision in the world. All 8 of those guys are in the top 10 fighters in their division. Alvey hasn't won in 8 fights coming into this one to fighters who, at the time the fight happened, were in the middle third of the entire division at best. Wellington Turman is BJJ practitioner who had 2 points deducted and won a decision with Alvey largely standing. There is no reason that this fight needs to be happening. On top of all of that, Alvey is now going back to a division that he left because he couldn't make the weight and he missed it the first time he weighed in for this fight. What the UFC is doing to Sam Alvey is wrong. If that wasn't enough, they gave him an absolutely awful matchup. Anyways, Alvey is primarily a standup fighter who does his best work when he sits back and looks to counter. He almost refuses to go forward and will immediately put his own back against the cage against everyone he fights. He does have a decent ability to counter punch still has some degree of power. It wouldn't completely shock me if he were able to hurt Michal in this one because he still has that in there. The problem is that Alvey throws no volume and will only counter. He basically does not do anything else. He doesn't wrestle, he won't lead the dance, he won't move forward. He will put his back on the cage and hope to catch Michal with a big counter punch. Alvey used to do this very well because he could sit down in the pocket and trade a little bit because he was extremely durable. As he's aged into this skid, his chin is no longer holding up the way it used to and he finds himself getting hurt, dropped, and finished much more frequently. The UFC decided to finally end Sam Alvey's run in the UFC by giving him an absolutely awful matchup here. Michal is a pretty talented kick boxer who is reasonably technical and powerful. His biggest struggles have come against grappling heavy styles, but he won't have to worry about that here. Michal is reliable to come forward and throw with good volume. He will mix up the target and throw to both the body and head with some really nice combinations. He's going to get Alvey pinned against the side of the octagon and he's likely to pick him apart. It will only be a matter of time until Alvey has had enough and will eventually go down and get finished. Alvey's one hope is that he can catch Michal with a counter and hurt him, which is still possible. However, even if that happens, Alvey won't throw out enough volume to even take advantage of it. In that case, he would probably make Michal tentative enough the rest of the way that Michal would only win by decision instead of knockout.
Bets to consider: U2.5 total rounds -154
I'm not really sure why the under 2.5 rounds is this low, but I'm glad to see it. I think the only way this fight even gets close to going over is in the situation that I just described. Alvey hurts Michal with a counter early and that makes Michal play a more cautious style and not actually go for a finish. Other than that, I think Michal just pours on the pressure and volume and eventually it just becomes too much for Alvey. This also includes the possibility that Alvey finds the perfect spot on a counter and knocks Michal out. The fact that Alvey missed weight the first time he stepped on the scale tells me he's really killing himself to make this weight and that his durability will likely be even more compromised than it has been from the years of competition.
Ariane Lipski defeats Priscila Cacheoira Result: Cancelled
This is a weird style matchup. Overall, Lipski is the more technically advanced fighter in all aspects. She is a fairly technical striker, who looks her best when the fight is more of a traditional striking battle. I often articulate this as saying that Lipski will look better when the fight is a pure contest of martial art skill and technique. When things turn from that into a "fight" she sort of starts to break down. Lipski is also a reasonably talented grappler both in the wrestling and submission facets. She hasn't wrestled a whole lot in her UFC career to date, but I think that would really be to her benefit in this fight. The reason this is a weird style matchup is because Cacheoira is going to do exactly what I said Lipski doesn't want. Cacheoira is going to come forward and throw lots of volume with pretty good volume. Cacheoira has the same quality that I talked about with Jason Witt earlier in that she is very reliable in who she is as a fighter. She is going to fight largely the same way every single time. She is going to be aggressive and attempt to make this a fight. The downside of this is that she absorbs way too much damage and with someone with the power of Lipski, that could be an issue. Her durability doesn't seem quite as strong as it once was and it does feel like she is going to get knocked out at some point if she doesn't tighten up the defense. The real difference for me though is that Lipski will have a noticeable advantage on the ground if it gets there. Lipski hasn't looked good when she's been on bottom, but Cacheoira doesn't shoot for her own takedowns, so I don't think we'll see her there. Cachoeira has also looked really lost on bottom in the past and I think Lipski could get her there. Cachoeira hasn't really defended takedowns well and hasn't really shown much ability to stop her opponents from easily transitioning to very dominant positions, which we know Lipski can do. Ultimately, I lean Lipski here, but Cachoeira does have a path.
Bets to consider: U2.5 total rounds +164
I've seen some be on the Cachoeira money line here, but at +144, I don't really think there is a ton of value. I think Cachoeira could make it competitive on the feet, but I think she is still a step behind both technically and in the power department. I feel pretty certain that Lipski could and probably would finish her or at least dominate her if she got a takedown. That sort of leaves Cachoeira's path to be a volume based close decision? I think I would need that number to be a little bit better before I started to consider it. On the other hand, I really have no interest in playing Lipski at -180 either. She has been far too inconsistent in her career for me to trust her at that kind of price. If we get the good Lipski, she'll look way better than that, but if we get the bad Lipski, she may not even look like a favorite at all. I think the under 2.5 rounds is an interesting play in this one. I think Lipski could finish her on the ground or on the feet. Cachoeira takes way too much damage and someone as powerful as Lipski could put her out. On the Cachoeira side, if we do get the bad Lipski, I think she could overwhelm her on the feet to the point where she can get a TKO herself. I wouldn't go too heavily on it, but I think a small play on that is an interesting look.
Serghei Spivac defeats Augusto Sakai Result: Spivac by KO (4-2)
This is a really bad matchup for Augusto Sakai. Sakai is a fighter that I've struggled to really rate or place within the hierarchy of the division. He's a decent enough striker, but I think he is sort of limited to just that. He usually puts out pretty good volume, but for a heavyweight, he really doesn't have a ton of power in his hands. He doesn't have the natural power and he doesn't really have the explosion or hand speed to cause a ton of problems for the higher level fighters in the division. Sakai has largely avoided wrestlers in his time in the UFC, but he hasn't faired particularly well when we've seen him on bottom. Overeem took him down without too much resistance and then was able to pound him out somewhat effortlessly. I think Serghei Spivac is a much better grappler than Overeem is. Spivac is a pretty good wrestler and is almost certain to get this fight to the ground. He has a really good top game as well and he is aggressive with his ground and pound. He pairs that with a pretty solid submission game as well. Spivac isn't anything amazing on the feet, but he is at least competent there and I think he will be able to compete with Sakai for the time that it is on the feet. Spivac is also a bit limited athletically, but his wrestling just makes the difference here. What also concerns me for Sakai is that while he is the striker, he isn't the kind of striker who keeps distance and is very measured in his attack. He is the kind of striker who likes to move forward and eventually crashes into the clinch. That will put Spivac where he wants to be and I imagine that he can get takedowns from there really without much issue at all. I think Spivac probably gets the finish in this one.
Bets to consider: Spivac ITD -150
I really don't see how this fight ends any other way a vast majority of the time. I suppose Sakai could clip him early, but Spivac has only been knocked out by Walt Harris and Tom Aspinall who are both way more powerful and explosive than Sakai is. I can't get the visual of the Overeem fight out of my head for Sakai. He was so tired late in that fight and kept getting taken down by a kick boxer and got finished because he basically had nothing else to give. This fight is only 3 rounds, but the pace that Spivac is going to put on him with the takedown attempts is going to wear Sakai down and once he goes to his back, I really don't think Spivac lets him up unless it is the referee stopping the fight. Spivac should have his pick of a ground and pound TKO or a submission in my opinion.
Brogan Walker defeats Juliana Miller Result: Miller by KO (4-3)
Trying to do research for this fight has taken years off of my life. This is not going to be a fun fight to watch. This is the first of the TUF finales and it is basically a coin flip fight. I decided to go with Walker because I think she is the more well rounded fighter who has a higher level of competition and more overall experience. On the feet, she isn't particularly great, but she is technical to some degree and seems to have requisite levels of power. She doesn't pump out as much volume as one would really like, but she at least looks comfortable on the feet and knows how to string combinations together. She isn't the best wrestler in the world and I think she can be taken down in this fight, but she's not completely lost once the fight hits the ground. I think she is a decent scrambler and can probably use that to work back to her feet if she is taken down. On the other side, we have Juliana Miller who is just extremely raw. She has very little experience and what she does have is pretty low level. Her striking leaves a lot to be desired. She takes shots way too cleanly and way too easily. She has very little volume and she really only throws a jab that she uses to close the distance to set up takedown attempts. Miller is at least an ok enough wrestler and that is where she has most of her success. Her best attribute is that she's very big and very strong compared to most women that she's fought, so she is able to just out muscle them and get them to the ground. She is able to eventually wear them out and finish them from the top. It wouldn't really surprise me to see Miller do the same to Walker here as Walker will be at a size disadvantage, but I think every other avenue in this fight favors Walker, so I'll go with her.
Bets to consider: if either ML gets to +120 or better
I think this fight being lined anywhere to far removed from even presents some value. I really don't know how anyone could feel confident enough in either side to bet someone at minus money in this fight. I really wouldn't bet this fight at all unless I wake up and one woman is like +150 or something, but just save your money. Anyone who wins money on this fight is doing so by just pure luck more than anything else. There is literally no reason to bet on this fight under any reasonable circumstance. Both fighters are too raw and too low of a skill level to really have any confidence in trying to predict what they are going to do and how they will look against the other. The simplest I can get this fight is that Miller either out muscles Walker to the ground and wins that way or she doesn't and gets beat up on the feet.
Zac Pauga defeats Mohammed Usman Result: Usman by KO (4-4)
This fight paired with the last one should get TUF cancelled for good. I'm not someone who generally complains about the skill level of fights because we see at least one or two fights on the early prelims of most cards that probably aren't truly "UFC level", but they're generally fighters who at least have some sort of potential or they're in weight classes that just need their roster filled out. Both of these TUF finales are so far removed from UFC caliber fights that it is going to be stunningly obvious. To have these finales book ended by Sakai vs Spivac and Neal vs Luque is almost going to make them look like a different sport. This fight is almost guaranteed to be shockingly bad. I guess I have to go with Pauga here because he is a moderately more technical fighter? I don't know. He's really not even a heavyweight and it kind of shows. His power is virtually nonexistent and he doesn't wrestle offensively at all. He also is extremely low output, so that basically limits him to a low volume decision win. I just think he probably ends up landing slightly more shots because he will be a tad quicker and a tad more technically sound. Usman is much bigger and he will have the power advantage here. I don't think his power is really anything above average for heavyweight, but he'll have the advantage nonetheless. I think Usman is the better offensive wrestler, but I don't really think he'll be able to get Pauga down. Usman is also very low volume, but without the technical striking of Pauga, I think he ends up just slightly behind.
Bets to consider: Usman ML +210
If you're under some sort of curse that forces you to bet every fight, then this is the side. I really don't see how Pauga has gotten to -265 because there really isn't a whole lot there. For someone in heavyweight MMA to be that big of a favorite, there has to be a reason and I don't know what it would be in this case. Pauga isn't going to get a knockout, he doesn't throw volume, and he doesn't land takedowns, yet he has somehow gotten to -265. Fundamentally, that just should not be the case. That leaves Usman as the play. All of the variance in this fight is to Usman's benefit as well. If someone is going to get a finish, it is going to be him. If someone is going to have grappling success, it is going to be him. Otherwise, you're left with a low level, low output kickboxing match, where one side is +210. I favor Pauga slightly due to his technical game, but that is only a slight lean. Usman is the side to bet, but please don't. There are plenty of fights to lose money on in the coming weeks and months, this doesn't need to be one of them.
Vicente Luque defeats Geoff Neal Result: Neal by KO (4-5)
This is probably the actual best fight on the card. The more I've thought about it, the more I've gotten myself into this fight. I lean Luque here because I think he is the more proven and reliable fighter. Luque is extremely talented and has a lot of things going for him. He is a pretty talented striker and he's really fast both with his hands and kicks. He brings a reasonable amount of power as well. He is reliable to move forward, bring the pressure, and push a pace. Luque's weaker spot is his wrestling. He doesn't wrestle offensively and has had his problems stopping takedowns defensively, as we just saw against Belal Muhammad. Luque does have a decent enough submission game, but I don't really expect that to come into play in this one. He also gets hit a ton, but he has been historically very durable and capable of eating damage. Unfortunately for Geoff Neal, he hasn't quite been the same since he suffered some really serious health problems. At his best, I think he has the skill set to make this a competitive fight. He is more known for his striking and with someone as hittable as Luque is, he wouldn't have any problem landing his shots. He has shown at times to have the ability to wrestle, but he really doesn't go for it very often. He also used to have a pretty decent output rate, but that has kind of faded since all of those problems. While Neal has the skills in there somewhere, I don't know if he can get the most out of them like he used to. I don't know if he is going to let his hands go enough to really punish Luque because he just hasn't in recent history. I don't think he's going to wrestle even though we just saw Luque get out grappled because if Neal didn't wrestle Wonderboy, then when is he going to? I don't think Neal is going to knock him out because Luque has a great chin. My feel on this fight is that Luque puts on the pressure and does just enough to earn a decision win.
Bets to consider: Neal ML +148, Luque by decision +260, FGTD +126
From a money line perspective, I think Neal is actually the side. I think he has the ability to win this fight or at least make it close even he can get the most out of the skills he still has. If he gets this fight to a point where they are just standing and trading, there's no way that fight is anything other than even. To get that guy at +150 is pretty good value. That is, if you think that version of Neal is in there. Given how we just saw Luque beaten by Belal, I don't think you can feel confident enough in him to lay -180 or worse. I think, if you want to play Luque, doing so by decision is the way to go. Neal typically does a decent job of limiting the overall exchanges in a fight, which will help this fight go to decision. Even post injuries, Neal hasn't had a durability issue at all and has only been knocked out once, by Kevin Holland before he was in the UFC. That would make sense for the fight goes the distance as well. On the Luque side, it goes the distance because his chin is one of the better ones in MMA right now and has been for a long time.
Jamahal Hill defeats Thiago Santos Result: Hill by KO (5-5)
I did a full preview on this one, so if you want more detail, check that out. Basically, I just don't think Santos is that same guy that he used to be. Santos is too low volume to really make anything happen in this fight. Outside of landing the one big shot, I don't really know what his path to victory even looks like. Jamahal Hill is just too good at this stage of their careers. He's a much better boxer with good power and he has better cardio. I think a prime version of Santos would make this interesting, but I just don't think we're going to get anything that even slightly resembles that. If Santos came out throwing his kicks or if he decided to try and wrestle, I think he would at least have a chance. More realistically, I think his best chance to victory is if he came out and just went crazy. If Santos decided to just say to hell with it and went all out for the first 5 minutes trying to turn it into a fire fight where they're just trading, I think he could win that fight. However, I think it is much more likely that we get the version of Santos that just sort of stands there and throws a counter shot here and there and hopes to land a big counter shot. In that fight, the boxing, volume, and power of Hill wins without too much resistance.
Bets to consider: Hill round 1, 2, or 3 -130, Hill by KO/TKO -135
I don't think there is any way to bet Santos in this fight. He's just not trustworthy enough to actually do anything where I could feel any degree of confidence in betting him. I think you could honestly justify laying he big number on Hill if you really wanted to. Just based on the version of Santos that we've seen for so many fights in a row now, there's really no reason to believe he wins this fight. When Hill wins, he often does so by finish and that number is at -135, which I think is just ok. There might be a little bit of value there, but I would much rather look to use Hill as a parlay piece than any of his props or singles.
That's it from me though on this card. What do you guys think? What fight are you most looking forward to? Leave your picks and predictions in the comments. Leave your bets in the comments as well. My official plays will be below. Thanks for reading, have a good day, and enjoy the card.
Official Bets
Bryan Battle ML 2 units at -290 to win .69 units + .69 units
Alvey/Michal U2.5 rounds 2 units at -154 to win 1.3 units + 1.3 units
Lipski/Cachoeira U2.5 rounds .5 units at +164 to win .82 units void
Serghei Spivac ITD 2 units at -150 to win 1.33 units + 1.33 units
Luque/Neal FGTD .75 units at +126 to win .94 units - .75 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: + 2.57 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 4.39 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 6.96 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 5 - 5
Previous Year to Date Record: 199 - 118
Updated Year to Date Record: 204 - 123
I guess it really is the ugly cards on paper that deliver the most in reality. I wasn't nearly as low on this card as the general consensus opinion seemed to be, but after losing both the Witt fight and the Lipski fight, the card wasn't looking like it was going to be in the best shape. Every fight ended inside the distance, so even with the fights that weren't that great, we go some excitement. Unfortunately, that didn't translate to a great day of picks. This is the first day in awhile that I've had a day this bad, but hopefully we can finish this stretch strong before we have a week off at the end of the month.
As usual, we go over the losses first. The first loss of the night came when Mayra Bueno Silva submitted Stephani Egger in the first, or at least allegedly submitted after the strange way the fight ended. I said in my section up above that I thought Egger was good enough on top to not get submitted, which was clearly not the case. I suspected if Egger got the takedowns, Silva would try to throw up a few submissions, but I also thought Egger would be expecting them, but she got caught in an armbar and whether she tapped or not, she definitely wasn't in a good spot at all. We lost the next fight as well in a fight that I sort of took a chance on the underdog side. Grainger really just didn't look that great in the fight and she needed to be better standing. I recognized that if the fight hit the mat, McKenna was going to have a pretty easy time getting to whatever position she desired, but I just thought that Grainger would provide a bit more of an issue on the feet. She didn't stop the takedowns as well as I thought she may and didn't really have the success from range either. She had a huge reach advantage, but a lot of the fight wasn't at the range she needed. Even when it was, she wasn't landing as much as she should have been able to. I'm not ready to give up on Grainger since she was away for so long, but that wasn't a very good performance. Our next 2 losses were the TUF finales. We lost the first fight when Julianna Miller over powered Brogan Walker and eventually finished her on the ground. I thought it was a 50/50 fight where Walker was the more well rounded fighter with more experience, but Miller had a huge physicality advantage and it showed. Every time she got the fight into the clinch, she was able to take Walker down and then hold her down for long stretches. She started slow with the ground and pound, but she picked up the volume and intensity as the fight went on. It was a curious decision on the part of Walker as she was the one initiating the clinch situations late in the fight even though she was being handled there. Unfortunately, those are the types of things that can happen in fights that at that low of a level with fighters who don't have the long history of fight experience. They haven't fully developed in cage awareness and fight IQ yet and are more prone to those types of mistakes than the average UFC level fighter who has several years of amateur and/or regional experience before they even get to the UFC most of the time. Miller has the physical traits, but she has to develop the MMA skills if she wants a chance to maximize her potential. Our next loss was Zac Pauga to Mohammed Usman. If you found this blog from my instagram, you may have noticed that I mistakenly circled Usman on the graphic, even though I actually picked Pauga here. There really wasn't much differentiating these two for me, I just leaned slightly in Pauga's direction as I thought he would be a little quicker and was a little more technical. That seemed to be the case in reality and was sort of playing out as I imagined until Usman landed a left hand that put Pauga out cold. It really didn't even look like it was that massive of a punch, but clearly Usman hit him right on the button. I mentioned in the betting portion that I thought Usman was the betting side, even though I slightly leaned Pauga in my pick. Our final loss was Vicente Luque and I'm not necessarily surprised that he lost, but more how he lost. I said that I believed Neal had the skills to cause Luque problems, but I just hadn't seen that peak version of Neal since all of his health issues a few years ago. I really didn't think it was in the cards for us to get the best performance of Geoff Neal's entire career, but that is exactly what we saw. Neal was sharp in his strikes and looked powerful. He finally felt comfortable letting his hands go and his volume was back to the level that he needs. He was able to land his straight left basically whenever he wanted and was hurt Luque time and time again. He had Luque on wobbly legs for a long time in the first round, but couldn't finish him. After a slow second round, he started landing hard again in the third and eventually landed a flurry of uppercuts to finish Luque for the first time. I was surprised to see the version of Neal that we got, but after knowing that is the version of Neal that showed up, I'm not surprised that he was able to win. I wouldn't have predicted that he would be the one to finish the historically durable Luque, but after so many wars, Luque's chin finally gave out on him. I was down on Neal coming into this fight as it seemed like he may never get back to the best version of himself, but after that, he may have a run left in him after all.
To go over the wins, we start with Bryan Battle. While I thought Battle had the advantage everywhere and wasn't putting nearly as much stock into a potential knockout that some were, I really didn't see this coming. Battle isn't traditionally the type of fighter who gets a ton of knockouts, especially that early in the fight. His knockouts are much more likely to come late due to the accumulation of damage that he'll put on someone over an extended period of time. He just fooled Sato with the high kick and landed it perfectly and that is the kind of strike that will put just about anyone out. Terrance McKinney was our next win and he showed at least a little bit of growth. He showed a bit of self control and didn't come out completely wild and reckless this time. He has a long way to go, especially with his cardio, but I think this was a good step in the right direction. I thought he would be able to find the finish in this one before too long, but he did take a shot in this one that hurt him for a moment. Pretty much everyone had the same read on this fight, so I'm not going to waste anymore time on it. Michal Oleksiejczuk knocked out Sam Alvey in the first round and that was also the outcome that most expected. Michal's aggression and technical kickboxing acumen was always going to be too much for Alvey and that is exactly what we saw. Alvey might have partially landed a few counters, but he was getting blasted pretty much from the jump. He took as much as he could and showed some heart to keep fighting after he got dropped initially, but he got cracked again and that was it. Nothing unexpected happened in that fight at all, so I can't take too much credit for that one either. We got the Serghei Spivac win over Augusto Sakai in yet another fight that really didn't surprise anyone. Spivac's wrestling was going to be too much and he was able to take Sakai down over and over again. Sakai did work his way up more than I expected, but eventually he just couldn't keep up with the pace and got finished with some ground and pound. He protested the stoppage, but it was really just in his best interest. He was going to continue to take damage and I don't believe the tide was turning in that fight any time soon. Our final win came with Jamahal Hill and that was a solid performance from him. His volume was minimized a bit and he had to defend a lot of wrestling, but he still came out with a win. His cardio is what eventually won out as once Santos got tired, Hill was able to start landing and hurting Santos. My read was off because Santos actually came out fighting and put up a really good effort before he started to slow, but ultimately, Hill was able to land big and get the knockout win.
The final thing to go over is the bets and we had another good day, which makes two weeks in a row now. It was a small slate of bets as I just didn't really feel great about where a lot of the lines were at, but we came away with a solid profit. The first play of the night was Bryan Battle and he won that fight a lot more easily that anticipated. He got a quick finish and I'm glad I didn't take the submission or decision play that I talked about. I opted for just the money line because I thought he would win that fight maybe close to 85% of the time. We won our second bet as well with the Alvey/Michal under 2.5 rounds on a line that I just thought was incorrect. I thought the ways for that fight to go over or go the distance were limited to very specific scenarios that had a very small chance of actually happening. to get that at -150 was basically a no brainer in my mind and we didn't even have to sweat it out. The Lipski/Cachoeira bet voided since the fight was cancelled. Assuming the line is similar, I'll probably play it again this weekend unless I just have a bunch of other plays and don't feel that it is necessary. Our last winning bet of the night was Serghei Spivac inside the distance, which, again, just seemed like an easy call. I didn't think Spivac would have any issue getting takedowns and that he would eventually gas Sakai out and get the finish that way. That is almost exactly what happened as the fight was getting towards the end of the second round. I was starting to get a little nervous because Spivac would only throw a few punches at a time and then stop, so I wasn't sure if, I think it was Mark Smith, would step in or not, but he eventually did. Our last bet of the night was the lone loser and that was Neal/Luque to go the distance. I wasn't quite as confident in this one as some of the others, but not for the reason that we actually saw play out. My concern before the fight happened was that Neal would come out and be very conservative and low output again and that Luque's pressure would eventually just overwhelm him. I really wasn't planning on Luque being the one to get finished because he has had a great chin for years. He was getting blasted over and over again though and was clearly compromised from the middle of round one on. He got hurt again somewhat early in the third and then ate a plethora of uppercuts all in quick succession before taking a left right on the chin and going down. Either way, it lost, but I really didn't think Luque was going to be the one on the receiving end if this fight got finished. I'm not even all that surprised that Neal won, but the fact that he finished him is really impressive. Overall, we finished the night up 2.57 units, which for this card, I think is a solid enough night. A lot of people hit on Usman, which was a good bet. I almost talked myself into it at one point, but I just didn't trust that he was actually going to do enough.
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