The UFC is back tomorrow with another Fight Night at the Apex. We'll be getting another Thiago Santos main event, this time against rising contender Jamahal Hill. As a whole, I think this card actually pretty solid. Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque probably could have been a main event of it's own Fight Night and Serghei Spivac vs Augusto Sakai isn't a horrible fight either to go with the TUF finales. I can't tell you the last time I've watched a full season of TUF, but I think the novelty of the finales is enough to make me care a little bit about two fights I otherwise wouldn't care about at all. It is a bit unfortunate that we have to get another Santos main event, but it isn't really his fault. He fights the guys they put in front of him when they tell him to. I just don't know why the UFC keeps relying on him to headline events when it is so clear that he just isn't that guy anymore. Luckily, I think Hill will bring out the most entertaining version of Santos that is left in him. Let's just get into that now.
First up is Thiago Santos and he's someone who I genuinely feel bad for. Santos made his debut in the UFC back in 2013 as a middleweight (how that guy made 185 lbs I'll never know) and made a couple of decent runs. He had a 4 fight win streak snapped by Gegard Mousasi and then another 4 fight streak stopped by David Branch. He would pick up a win in the now infamous "call big mouth" fight against Kevin Holland before moving up to 205. Upon moving up he would get 3 straight stoppage wins to earn a title shot against Jon Jones that no one was really talking about. Santos would turn in the performance of his life in that fight while damaging his body to the point where he would never be the same. During the fight, Santos started to have a noticeable limp after throwing his trademark kicks. Despite being in clear pain, Santos continued to throw those kicks as hard as he could and pushed Jon Jones as far as we had seen him pushed since he fought DC 2 years prior. Unfortunately, Santos basically obliterated his left knee. I think he tore his MCL, PCL, ACL, and meniscus while fracturing his tibia. He also tore the meniscus in his right knee during the fight. He was out for over a year and he just hasn't been the same guy since. He came back and got beaten up by Glover Teixeira pretty badly and then lost a very slow paced fight to Aleksandar Rakic. He got a win over Johnny Walker, but dropped his last fight to Magomed Ankalaev. This has Santos coming into this fight with his stock about as low as it has been in years. As I said, the main reason for this slide is that Santos just isn't that same guy that we saw against Jon Jones. Whether it is that he never recovered from all of those injuries or he's just began to fade with age, his game just doesn't feel nearly as dangerous as it did in the past. At his best, Santos was a guy who was going to use his massive power to finish fights in the blink of an eye. He was never really a high output fighter, but his volume has become almost nonexistent at this point. He has still shown that some of that power is in there, but he just can't seem to let his hands go. His kicks used to be some of his best weapons, but he has almost completely gone away from them. It seems like he's slowed his pace this drastically because his cardio isn't in a great place either. He came out with a good start in the Teixeira fight, but when Glover didn't go away, Santos gassed and got finished pretty quickly after that. In these handful of fights that we've seen him have since returning, he shows flashes that the old Santos is still in there, but that is only for moments. In between those brief moments are long stretches of very little output. He's been pretty willing to get backed up and just try to sit back and wait for the moment to land one big hook. Santos has never really been known for his grappling, but he isn't completely lost. He doesn't wrestle offensively, but he has ok enough takedown defense for the most part. He is definitely a step behind the elite level grapplers like Teixeira, but he is competent enough defensively against the middle or lower tier grapplers in the division. A prime Thiago Santos was wild enough to create some chaos where his big power could make things happen. His powerful kicks and devastating hooks were enough to push him to the brink of a title at one point, but his decline in offensive output has his path to victory very narrow these days.
Unlike Thiago Santos, Jamahal Hill is just starting to enter the prime of his career at 31 years old. While 31 is typically the back end of an athlete's prime, Hill has only been fighting professionally for 5 years, so he has a lot more tread left on the tires than your typical 31 year old fighter. Just for the fun of it, Jamahal Hill was born May 19, 1991 and Max Holloway was born December 4, 1991. When Hill made his pro debut on September 30, 2017 at knockout promotions 58, Max Holloway was already 14-3 in the UFC and had just unified the featherweight title by picking up his first TKO win over Jose Aldo. Obviously, Holloway has a lot of miles under his belt for someone his age, but my point is that Hill has a lot left to give in this sport considering his age. The first really big fight that Hill had came against long time UFC veteran Ovince St. Preux and Hill was able to finish him in the second round. He took a step back when he was submitted by Paul Craig and had his elbow dislocated, but has bounced back since. He's picked up knockout wins over Jimmy Crute and Johnny Walker in pretty impressive fashion. Stylistically, Jamahal Hill is one of those guys who relies on his massive power and he has good reason to do so. He doesn't look to be especially quick visually and doesn't have this crazy other worldly physique, but when he connects, guys don't just go down, they go out. He just has that special quality that people like to call the touch of death. Look no further than his last fight against Johnny Walker that ended in a cartoonish knockout. Hill is a decent enough boxer, but he is more willing to walk into the fire and engage in the pocket trusting that his power is going to come out on top. He mixes in some decent kicks at times, but he makes his money with his hands and that is where this fight will be won and lost. Hill throws his strikes with good volume and forward pressure as well. His cardio largely seems pretty good, but we haven't seen him in long fights too often. With the way he comes forward and his willingness to exchange, I don't know that we're going to see him in a long fight for awhile. He's going to come into the pocket and bet on his power and it generally works out for him. Hill isn't a perfect fighter and his grappling is largely unknown, but he is an extremely dangerous matchup for anyone in the division.
I think the keys to this fight can be broken down into two scenarios based on which version of Thiago Santos we get on Saturday night. If we get the version of Santos that we saw against Rakic, Walker, and Magomed Ankalaev then I think this should be somewhat easy work for Hill. If Santos is going to just stand for long stretches without throwing anything, Hill is just going to come after him and fire off boxing combinations until he finishes Santos. Thiago Santos can't just stand there and hope to land the one big counter shot or he's going to get beaten up pretty badly. Hill brings too much volume with too much power and is too good of a boxer to just absorb his shots and hope to land the one counter that puts him out. If that's the fight we get, there really isn't much to talk about because it is going to be one way traffic. However, I do think there are things Santos can do that I would like to see. If we can somehow get this version of Santos to employ the same style and techniques that he did a few years ago, I think he can make this an interesting fight. I would like to see him throw his kicks, especially low kicks against Hill to see how he can deal with that. I would like to see him try to wrestle offensively to see how Hill deals with that. I can hope all I want and if he does those things, I think this fight could become interesting, but I just have no reason to actually believe that he is going to do those things. He hasn't tried to wrestle hardly ever and the last time he did was years ago. Santos has significantly decreased the frequency with which he throws his kicks and they don't even look the same when he does throw him. If he was going to come in and blast low kicks over and over, I think he might have something, but I just don't believe he is going to actually do that. With that said, I think the best path for a Santos victory is if he just came out and threw caution to the wind. If he isn't willing or able to wrestle or throw kicks, he has to turn this into a fire fight and hope for the best. If he comes out and just plants his feet in the middle of the cage and forces Hill to trade with him, then I think that at least gives him a chance. Santos still has the power in there, so I think that forcing this to become a matter of who lands the big shot first gives him the best chance that he realistically has. The best version of Thiago Santos had the tools to make this a very interesting fight. I think this version of Santos, even being diminished, has the tools to compete here if he used that same style. The problem is that he doesn't do either. He isn't the same fighter physically and his style has become so inactive that he basically just holds out hope of landing a big hook that he throws like 5 times a round at most. I hope that we get at least something that tries to resemble the old Santos and this fight ends up being interesting or at least fun, but I'm skeptical.
What do you guys think? What are your predictions? What are your keys to victory for both sides? Leave any and all thoughts below. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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